Wednesday, October 7, 2009

2009 NLDS Preview: Dodgers vs. Cardinals

Next up, the Dodgers vs. the Cardinals.

Dodgers

The Dodgers had the best record in baseball for many days during 2009, although they tailed off a bit towards the end. Here's their position player breakdown.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
rafael furcal	ss	23	.282	.349	.408	.335	.317	-.019	3	15	2
orlando hudson	2b	22	.293	.362	.428	.348	.338	-.010	3	14	-1
manny ramirez	lf	22	.303	.418	.549	.417	.411	-.006	4	13	-14
matt kemp	cf	21	.301	.355	.493	.365	.362	-.003	3	14	2
james loney	1b	21	.293	.355	.443	.350	.337	-.013	3	14	-2
andre ethier	rf	20	.292	.371	.507	.378	.373	-.005	3	13	-2
russell martin	c	19	.278	.375	.406	.351	.315	-.036	3	12	-2
casey blake	3b	19	.271	.345	.459	.348	.360	.012	3	12	1
juan pierre	cf	10	.297	.340	.378	.319	.333	.014	1	7	3
ronnie belliard	2b	10	.291	.344	.454	.346	.436	.089	1	7	-1
jim thome	1b	5	.253	.372	.476	.368	.374	.005	1	3	0
brad ausmus	c	2	.239	.309	.313	.283	.306	.023	0	1	4
juan castro	ss	2	.241	.280	.328	.269	.286	.017	0	1	-4
mark loretta	2b	1	.273	.346	.349	.316	.273	-.043	0	1	-2
total		197	.290	.363	.452				28	126	0

PA: Estimated plate appearances for the series, assuming it goes the distance.
pwOBA: projected weighted on-base average, a rate version of linear weights
09wOBA: 2009 actual wOBA
Diff: 09wOBA minus pwOBA. As a rough rule of thumb, a difference of .010 in wOBA is worth about five runs over 600 PAs.
BR: Estimated batting runs for the series using linear weights for estimated PA
Outs: Estimated outs for the series based on revised projection and estimated PA
dRS: Defensive projection over 150 games using an average of zone rating and UZR for non-catchers, and for 120 games using a system similar to the one described here for catchers.

The Dodgers have a well-balanced offense, with all of their starters projected at better than league average offensively in terms of wOBA. Obviously their key offensive players are Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier. With Jim Thome on the bench they have a very good pinch-hitting option for situations where the pitcher comes up in a key spot. Juan Pierre and Ronnie Belliard also give them some depth on the bench, although Pierre's best usage is probably as a pinch-runner and defensive replacement.

Defensively, the Dodgers project slightly below average. Manny Ramirez's defensive numbers may overstate how bad he is because we still have years in Fenway LF murking up the numbers. But they don't really have any glaring weaknesses or strengths defensively aside from Manny in LF if he really is a -14 defender.

On the pitching side, the Dodgers will be going with Randy Wolf in game 1, even though Clayton Kershaw projects as their best starter. Kershaw gets the nod in Game 2, with Vicente Padilla (really?) and Chad Billingsley rounding out the rotation.

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
randy wolf	SP1	164	157	20	56	128	4.37	4.11	4.24	3.23	3.97	12	5.8
clayton kershaw	SP2	159	140	13	74	150	4.07	3.91	3.75	2.79	3.16	6	2.7
vicente padilla	SP3	147	162	19	52	95	5.61	5.18	4.68	4.92	4.72	6	3.7
chad billingsley	SP4	181	168	17	88	162	4.26	3.99	4.06	4.03	3.82	5	2.4
jonathan broxton	CL	79	61	5	33	101	3.52	3.13	2.69	2.61	2.03	3	1.2
george sherrill	SU	47	40	4	24	47	3.59	3.53	3.85	2.40	3.20	3	1.2
ramon troncoso	SU	73	81	4	23	48	4.30	3.93	3.60	2.72	3.57	3	1.4
ronald belisario	MR	62	69	8	18	41	5.44	4.92	4.42	2.04	3.36	3	1.8
guillermo mota	MR	64	52	5	25	55	3.57	3.44	3.71	3.45	4.30	2	0.8
hong-chih kuo	MR	60	54	5	26	63	3.93	3.73	3.49	3.00	3.23	1	0.4
james mcdonald	MR	115	120	18	32	87	5.36	4.94	4.54	4.00	4.34	1	0.6
jeff weaver	LR	119	137	19	35	77	5.63	5.30	4.88	3.65	3.98	0	0.0
Total		45	43	5	18	38	4.42	4.13	4.02				22.1

pRA: Projected runs allowed per nine innings
pERA: Projected earned runs allowed per nine innings
pFIP: Projected Fielding independent pitching
sIP: Estimated innings in the series
sR: Estimated runs allowed in the series based on revised projection and sIP

The Dodgers have a pretty good rotation and a very good bullpen. One area of concern may be the fact that the Dodgers project to have the worst BB rate of any of the playoff teams at 3.50 per 9, but that is at least partially mitigated with the second best HR rate per 9 (0.82) and the third best K rate per 9 (7.80).

Adding that all up looks like this:

#games	5
home games	2
#outs	125
offense	28.0
pitching	22.1
defense	-0.5
wpct	.606
162 gm equiv	98-64

#outs: 27 outs times # of games if the series goes the distance.
offense: Total BR for the series using # of outs
pitching: Total runs allowed by the pitching and defense for the series
defense: Estimated impact of defense over series
wpct: Estimated winning percentage for the team based on these playing time estimates and adjusted for home field advantage using the offense, pitching and defense plugged into Pythagenpat
162 gm equiv: wpct translated to a 162 game season

Cardinals

Before I get to the numbers, I will tease that what I found shocked me.

Lineup	Pos	PA	AVG	OBP	SLG	pwOBA	09wOBA	Diff	BR	Outs	dRS
julio lugo	ss	23	.262	.328	.369	.311	.322	.011	3	15	-8
mark derosa	3b	22	.275	.356	.438	.349	.345	-.003	3	14	-3
albert pujols	1b	22	.339	.448	.646	.460	.459	-.001	5	12	7
matt holliday	lf	21	.293	.375	.494	.377	.366	-.011	3	13	5
ryan ludwick	rf	21	.278	.347	.501	.363	.334	-.029	3	14	0
skip schumaker	2b	20	.303	.359	.402	.340	.339	-.001	3	13	-7
colby rasmus	cf	19	.254	.323	.408	.321	.309	-.012	2	13	10
yadier molina	c	19	.286	.345	.385	.325	.335	.009	2	12	8
brendan ryan	ss	11	.271	.323	.366	.307	.323	.016	1	7	10
rick ankiel	cf	5	.259	.317	.473	.338	.292	-.045	1	3	-4
troy glaus	3b	4	.268	.371	.475	.370	.229	-.140	1	3	-2
jason larue	c	3	.213	.294	.340	.284	.274	-.010	0	2	2
joe thurston	2b	2	.276	.337	.401	.326	.291	-.035	0	1	3
tyler greene	ss	2	.233	.287	.353	.284	.263	-.021	0	1	-2
total		194	.285	.356	.446				27	125	0

Even if you account for a disparity in talent level between the AL and NL, it's really hard to argue that Albert Pujols is not the best player in baseball. Yeah, Joe Mauer had a great season at 6.9 WAR (using my version of WAR). Pujols? 8.0 WAR.

The midseason additions of Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday have helped tremendously, and even Julio Lugo played decently although CAIRO is skeptical about that. Colby Rasmus is one of the better prospects in baseball and although his offense was a little disappointing, his defense was very good. Yadier Molina can't hit much, although he's fine for a catcher, but his glove is his calling card and he's probably one of the top two or three defensive catchers in the league.

And lastly, their pitching.

Pitcher	Role	IP	H	HR	BB	K	pRA	pERA	pFIP	09ERA	09FIP	sIP	sR
chris carpenter	SP1	132	113	7	29	100	2.98	2.81	3.07	2.24	2.77	12	4.0
adam wainwright	SP2	180	177	15	51	144	3.72	3.42	3.52	2.63	3.18	6	2.5
joel pineiro	SP3	174	192	17	39	95	4.75	4.41	4.01	3.49	3.27	6	3.2
john smoltz	SP4	113	128	12	30	90	4.72	4.49	3.79	8.33	4.83	5	2.6
ryan franklin	CL	80	77	8	29	49	3.90	3.71	4.38	1.92	3.36	3	1.3
jason motte	SU	56	59	7	15	54	4.36	4.06	3.67	4.76	4.80	3	1.5
dennys reyes	SU	46	43	3	19	36	3.57	3.20	3.68	3.29	3.76	3	1.2
kyle mcclellan	MR	67	67	5	25	49	4.28	3.99	3.92	3.37	3.98	3	1.4
kyle lohse	MR	162	175	17	47	102	4.84	4.51	4.16	4.74	4.58	2	1.1
trever miller	MR	48	40	5	16	47	3.59	3.38	3.51	2.06	3.34	1	0.4
todd wellemeyer	MR	128	136	16	53	88	5.32	4.85	4.74	5.89	5.34	1	0.6
brad thompson	LR	98	108	12	28	48	5.40	5.04	4.69	4.84	4.51	0	0.0
Total		45	44	4	12	33	3.94	3.67	3.65				19.7

You can make a very good argument that no team can match the Cardinals #1/#2 punch. I don't know who will get start in game 4, it will probably be either Smoltz or Lohse, but the difference between their projections is small so it shouldn't change things too much.

The bullpen is a little less impressive if you go by projections instead of by what happened in 2009. Yeah, Ryan Franklin had a great year, but he's Ryan Franklin and he's 36. The odds of him making a real tangible improvement in his talent level to the degree shown in 2009 are small. His FIP in 2009 was 3.22 and his xFIP was 4.23, so he's fine, he's just not 1.92 ERA good. Jason Motte projects better than he actually did in 2009, and they have other useful arms in the pen with Dennys Reyes, Kyle McClellan, Trever Miller and one of Smoltz/Lohse.

So what was so shocking?

#games	5
home games	3
#outs	125
offense	26.9
pitching	19.7
defense	0.4
wpct	.658
162 gm equiv	107-55

Before we account for league differences, the Cardinals look to be just about as good as the Yankees, who I have as the best team in the postseason. If we apply a league correction of about 4% (I have the NL as about 4% worse than the AL over the last four seasons) they're more like a .630 Wpct (102 win team).

That doesn't matter until the World Series, so here's what the Monte Carlo Simulator says for Dodgers vs. Cardinals.

Cardinals: 56.7%
Dodgers: 43.3%

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