Sweet!

What if he gets injured during the physical?

Yayyyyy!

Did we ever get a swear poll on the new curse? Does anyone like it as is?

We should do a poll.  This is a democracy!

I thought the poll resulted in an overwhelming response for “The Curse of Kate Hudson”? Which would be nice, because if it lasted for a while we would be rooting for ANY Yankee to plunder MacReady’s daughter.

Why are they not considering Melky Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF? Doesn’t that work better defensively?

OMG, I hit the reload limit.  On December 18.  What is wrong with me?

We should do a poll.  This is a democracy!

Larry is the tyrant type. No problem with that. (don’t ban me.)

[8] Don’t worry, I’ve done that multiple times in the offseason.

They will miss Damon’s pinch-bunting ability.

So the yankees rejected 2/20 for Damon.  So it’s definitely a Holliday or Budget issue.  Interesting.

Doesn’t that work better defensively?

That depends on how much Cabrera and how much Gardner.  Melky’s no better than Granderson in CF.

[7]“Why are they not considering Melky Gardner in CF and Granderson in LF? Doesn’t that work better defensively? “

Only if you give Gardner the big side of the platoon.

The defense probably goes Gardner >>> Granderson > Cabrera.

But there’s always hesitancy to move the “star” from the glamour position until he proves he can’t hack it.

So it’s definitely a Holliday or Budget issue.  Interesting.

Who’s this Budget guy?  How’s his defense?  Does he hit LHP?

Who’s this Budget guy?
Hoffman.

How’s his defense? 
Great.

Does he hit LHP?
It’s the only type of pitching he can hit.

I thought I had unqualified support for

The Curse of Cody Ransom

Makes much more sense, anyway.

No it doesn’t. Cody left long before they won the Series. Kate left right afterwards.

I think you may be jumping ahead with the Kate curse - word on the street is that she and Alex may not be done.

[19] Well, breaking up IS like tipping over a Coke machine…

[18]
So it took a few months to kick in.  It’s supposed to be a minor player, isn’t it?
And it sounds much cooler (ask Rilke).
In any event, either way, it’s only until next October! 

If getting rid of Ransom cursed the team, how did they win the Series?

Notice the phrase “so it took a few months to kick in”?
That is - so what?
And it’s like an old Western, impressive and threatening.  Sounds as good as you’d want a curse to sound.

Look back to the thread where these were being discussed.

Yes, I read that, thank you. I was weighing the logic of it- the whole “starts when I want it to” is as arbitrary as the “I like the sound of it better” argument. It would justify calling it “The Curse of Reggie Jackson.” Regardless, these have been some of the most useless posts I have ever made and read.

Curse of Godzirra

Losing both Matsui and Damon when neither one had outrageous contract demands is just putrid. Nick Johnson is an injury prone DH with a bum wrist who couldn’t hit ten home runs last season. If these machinations work out, the Yankees got lucky. You had to bring Damon back if Boras conceded the third year. This team absolutely dominated baseball after A-Rod returned and Cashman is needlessly shaking up the roster. Thumbs down, way down from me.

Well, breaking up IS like tipping over a Coke machine…

As are so many of life’s big decisions.

Losing both Matsui and Damon when neither one had outrageous contract demands is just putrid.

I guess what’s putrid to one person is fragrant to another.

Boras’s offer didn’t enter the realm of the reasonable until after the Yankees had all but concluded a deal with Nick.

The Yankees apparently think that Matsui’s arthritic knees are unlikely to hold up.

Your entitled to your opinion, but I think they probably have a better read on each player’s relative value.

your = you’re

“Losing both Matsui and Damon when neither one had outrageous contract demands”

What was Matsui willing to sign for in NY?

“You had to bring Damon back if Boras conceded the third year.”

Which he does under what circumstance?

We’ll just have to see. I have no problem admitting when I am wrong. My honest reaction is that I hate these decisions.

“We’ll just have to see.”

One can only act on the knowledge that’s available.  The various players’ 2010 performances won’t help.

[19] Well, breaking up IS like tipping over a Coke machine…

“That’s beautiful.”

The only way I jump on this Nick Johnson bandwagon is if Juan Rivera ends up back in the Bronx… the 2003 Core revisited… otherwise I’m worried about leftfield, and power from the DH slot… way less pop in this lineup when Posada sits… and of course Nick Johnson could get injured at anytime… Johnson is younger than Matsui but very fragile himself… That’s it Chrissy, I’ve said my peace. No hard feeling guys, but I’m dissenting on this one. If Johnson is raking in July, racking up a .400 OBP and embarrassing Big Papi by comparison, I’ll happily eat crow. It’s nothing personal against Johnson, I wish him good health and success. 

33. OK. 28 home runs to 8.

“33. OK. 28 home runs to 8.”

You must dislike the vast majority of posts on this blog.

36. Nah, I love this blog. I think SG is one of the best baseball analysts on the web, top three for sure. I don’t see how my opinions on one player should affect how I view RLYW. I don’t think Nick Johnson’s power is coming back. I think he’s a broken toe on a foul tip or blown hamstring rounding first waiting to happen. I think it was extremely foolish giving him a one-year deal instead of Matsui. I don’t see why that’s so unreasonable. It’s just a different point of view.

I think it was extremely foolish giving him a one-year deal instead of Matsui. I don’t see why that’s so unreasonable.

Because we have no idea what it would have cost them to bring Matsui back on a one year deal. It was acknowledged that it wouldn’t have been 1 year $6.5M because he couldn’t have taken that drastic of a paycut to comeback to the same team. For all we know it would have had to have been $13M again or enough easily attainable incentives (eating a certain amount of brains or what have you) to get to $13M for him to be willing to return.

33. OK. 28 home runs to 8.

They didn’t sign OBP Jesus to hit HR, they signed him to be on base as frequently as possible ahead of TeixRod. Granderson will replace some of the lost power since he will out HR Damon next season.

38. Fair enough point, fair enough. I am not of the opinion that you need a SPEEDSTER hitting second. Johnson could be a great no. 2 hitter, no question about that. Look, the guy has a superb approach. His on-base percentage was amazing in ’09. I’d never argue against it. But eight home runs. Off a wrist injury… That doesn’t alarm anyone else? Not even the slightest? And again, when Posada sits, is the team’s overall power not worse than last season?

And again, when Posada sits, is the team’s overall power not worse than last season?

Not drastically. They still have a power hitter in the 5 spot in Granderson (30 HR which we can assume goes up in his new home park), followed by a 29HR guy (Swisher), a 25 HR guy (Cano), and a 13 HR guy (Melky).

So, in games without Posada they have 6 guys with crazy power, one guy with okay power, a BUC, and OBP Jesus. In games with Posada they have 7 guys with crazy power, one guy with okay power, and OBP Jesus. Seems fine even if Johnson doesn’t regain his power at all or benefit from DNYS.

when Posada sits, is the team’s overall power not worse than last season?

That depends on whether you’re comparing it to last year’s lineup when Posado played or last year’s lineup when he sat.

I guess I don’t understand how Posado is relevant to the point you’re trying to make regarding Damon versus Johnson.

[39] It is alarming, but supposedly power is the last thing to return following a wrist injury. I can live with Johnson hitting ~10 HRs. But I also beleive that the Yankees did their homework on him. If he’s healed he’ll bounce back nicely. If not, he’ll probably bounce back a bit anyway.

The Yankees had tons of power next year, losing some of it won’t be a huge deal. They’ll also have a full year of Arod, better power from Granderson, there’s a chance that Swisher might improve by picking up DNYS HRs.

I think the Yankees will hit for less power in 2010, but I don’t think it will be as significant as you do.

I’m sold and not sold on Johnson. No power is a problem but I’d expect some bounce back after recovering for a year too. I guess I also gotten used to hoping he’ll stay healthy too. Minimally I think difference in production from Matsui will be slight.

Ultimately I trust Cashman. And if he’s not caving to pressure now hopefully it bodes well for future signings.

I guess I don’t understand how Posado is relevant to the point you’re trying to make regarding Damon versus Johnson.

It seems anyone against the Nick Johnson signing turns it into a Damon and/or Matsui vs Johnson argument. Even though that isn’t really the case since we don’t know if Matsui was willing to take ANY paycut, and Damon wouldn’t go below 3 years until they had Johnson signed (and even then he was still demanding $13M or $11M for two years depending on who you believe).

Maybe the Posado point is something along the lines of - they are losing Matsui and Damon (which is 52 HR) so when they sit Posado where is the power coming from? But that isn’t a great argument since they still have Jeter, Teix, ARod, Granderson, Swisher, and Cano in the lineup.

I think the Yankees will hit for less power in 2010, but I don’t think it will be as significant as you do.

And they will possibly score more runs with OBP Jesus being on base for many of TeixRod’s HR, and will be better defensively with the OF of Melkner/Granderson/Swisher than they were with Merman/Melkner/Swisher.

Its just too bad Damon was so awful defensively. This all may have been moot had he not disintegrated out there.

Well, ultimately, it’s better to be arguing about the potential pratfalls of Nick Johnson instead of debating the merits of Jason Kendall and John Buck. For that, we can all have a happy holiday. Speaking of Holliday… 

40. Fair enough again, Brogan. Granderson and Cano will be real keys. Granderson’s uselessness against left-handers needs to be mitigated somewhat.

I guess I also gotten used to <strike>hoping</strike> wishcasting he’ll stay healthy too.

Fixed.

We would have had to wishcast for Gojira’s zombie-knees and Merman’s sexy calves, too.

It’ll be interesting to see where Damon ends up and for how much. I’m hoping he’ll get a big contract somewhere. Forces that other team to maybe dump someone good or keep them out of the hunt if a good player is in the in season market.

42. Good point on Swisher, Clay. I’m very high on that new stance for next season.

The Posada point was pretty dumb. I stand by my other concerns regarding the Stickster, however.

[48] He’ll lose some away HRs but I think it will be more than equaled by taking advantage of DNYS.

better defensively with the OF of Melkner/Granderson/Swisher than they were with Merman/Melkner/Swisher.

THere’s always talk of watering down the infield to slow down speedsters. I wonder if the Yankees considered turning LF into a swamp area. It would have had the combined effect of improving Damon’s play and making it more difficult for non-fish-people.

Granderson’s uselessness against left-handers needs to be mitigated somewhat.

CC and Centaur both seem to think they can fix it.

Well, ultimately, it’s better to be arguing about the potential pratfalls of Nick Johnson instead of debating the merits of Jason Kendall and John Buck. For that, we can all have a happy holiday. Speaking of Holliday…

Oh, I am still on board with making this a truly glorious Festivus and signing Holliday. I don’t even think they need really him. I just think he is a top 5 LF, who provides the offense with insurance in case of an injury to one of the older guys, don’t see anyone near his level available to them in the near future (not high on Crawford), and don’t see anyone in the organization that needs LF kept open for them (Jeter is not moving there). Also, bludgeoning teams seems to be a good way to offset any Chamber Ream/Fuse struggles, BattleCat over-battling, and Bad AJ.

Not to mention, once the Twins lock up Mauer, Holliday is a better all around positional player than anyone who will be available on the FA market next off-season.

[49] They should have turned LF into an aquarium last season.

I thought Posada was a good point. If you think age, injury, or other such decline. So it might be cumulative.

I just think he is a top 5 LF

Granderson? I think it’s mandatory for all Yankee CF hopefuls to acquire rubber arm. Then the quest for a new CF begins anew.

[48] I don’t think it’s dumb to be concerned about the lineup. We’re parting with two very good hitters.

I was just not following why Posado made a difference one way or the other. You could have substituted A-Rod into the sentence and made the same point. Or Swisher. Or Teixeira.

I don’t hate the move. I will, if NJ spends much of the year hurt and/or ineffective. That doesn’t mean it isn’t the right decision *now*.

Game chatter will be somewhat muted without our traditional inanities regarding dolphins, left/right hand dexterity, zombies, brains and busses. But I’m confident new inanities will emerge in the moment.

Speaking of which, The Curse of Cody Ransom, because he got bounced off the roster and missed getting a ring. But perhaps we shouldn’t have a curse at all, until a WS has gone by out of our grasp…?

We’re parting with two very good hitters.

But they did replace them with two very good hitters (one of whom is made of glass). I think contract demands make these moves more than justifiable. Not to mention, the completion of the RLYW-dream of The Return of OBP Jesus. Cashman (lantern) should construct his roster based on this site. I think we can all agree on that.

But I’m confident new inanities will emerge in the moment.

We already have Fuse and Chamber Ream and (lantern), and we really only scratched the surface on Centaurs and Centaur-related artwork.

“we shouldn’t have a curse at all”

Yeah, to me this is a “Why this is heaven, nor am I out of it” state of being.

I don’t understand “we’re losing power” concerns when SG projects we’re scoring/preventing more runs.

Well, I just kind of threw the Posada thing in there without really thinking if it made sense or not. Kind of like HOW DO YA LIKE THIS? HA HA.

I was stunned, frankly, to be rebutted.

It’s really hard to dominate at baseball if your team is old and plays bad defense.

[58] Hypothetically, of course.

The various players’ 2010 performances won’t help.

It would if we could just get the damned flux capacitor working.

I thought Posada was a good point. If you think age, injury, or other such decline. So it might be cumulative.

How is Posada’s age a point in favor of bringing back a couple of 37 year-olds?

The Curse of Cody Ransom, because he got bounced off the roster and missed getting a ring.

I’m pretty sure he gets a ring.  Berroa too.  Probably partial WS shares as well.

There can be no curse until they play another WS and the Yankees don’t win it.  It should be the Blessing of ______.  Since flags fly forever, maybe the Eternal Blessing of _______.  I vote for Brad Lidge.

There can be no curse until they play another WS and the Yankees don’t win it.  It should be the Blessing of ______.  Since flags fly forever, maybe the Eternal Blessing of _______.  I vote for Brad Lidge.

This option has my vote.  Although I do find the snark factor of having a curse in place directly after the end of the WS entirely consistent with the overall vibe of this place.

The hate on NJ’s power/fragility fails to recognize the DNYS power jump enjoyed by both Matsui and Damon last year and/or their own fragility issues (see [46]: Ted’s wishcast post above).  I understand the “ain’t broke/don’t fix” attitude, but Cashman is getting the team younger and cheaper:

Granderson, who played in a black hole last year and had a terrible babip still managed to hit 30 home runs, primarily to right.

While NJ represents a drop in power, he is a major improvement in OBP, and has power upside based on both recovery and DNYS, as well as a very cheap one year deal.

As I see it, the big gamble is the coin-flip between NJ’s general health at 31 and Matsui’s bone-bone corpse-knees at 36.

It’s also still possible for our venerable Guiding Lantern to yet produce some LF magic, in which case, the Yanks will be fairly ridiculous.

[60] You guys hate playing baseball the right way and clutch hitting and home runs and RBIs and proven veterans. Enjoy your strikeouts and spreadsheets.  < /kidding >

Sure I’m guessing but I do think last season’s performance carries special weight in considering future performance and the whole sentimental and loyalty thing.

If you go back and read the Cashman quote about Matsui and signing him to a comparable deal as the one he signed in California’s Anaheim of Los Angeles, he’s pretty clearly speaking in abstract. He never says, “We would’ve matched that but Matsui wouldn’t bite.” He says, “A lot of guys won’t…”

I think Cash knew all along that he wasn’t going to resign Matsui or Damon and the talk about guys not coming back for a pay cut was a graceful way to end it. I think Cashman saw it as a lose-lose situation; either Damon and/or Matsui is/are awful, or they’re pretty good and we’re in the exact same place next season except with Jeter and Mo to resign as well and another year punched on Damon/Matsui’s “true Yankee” card.

A few points…

1) Put me in the “No curse until a season passes without a Yankee championship” camp.

2) A month ago I was against Holliday because he wasn’t an elite talent at a premier defensive position.  I didn’t want two contracts on the team (Teix) like that but given that his AAV and years is down to reasonable levels he is going to be a bargain once the market rebounds.  Scoop him up now and this team is set until Posada retires. 

3) It seems anyone against the Nick Johnson signing turns it into a Damon and/or Matsui vs Johnson argument. Even though that isn’t really the case since we don’t know if Matsui was willing to take ANY paycut, and Damon wouldn’t go below 3 years until they had Johnson signed (and even then he was still demanding $13M or $11M for two years depending on who you believe).

Maybe I missed something (and I’m being honest because it is very possible), but Matsui came back to the Yankees before he signed and they told him they didn’t want to commit to him at this point. 

I also hear Cashman make general comments about players no liking to come back to the same club house after taking a pay cut.  Most people assumed he was talking about Matsui but after the evens of the next few days unfolded it seems more applicable to Damon.  We’ll never know but it’s seems thin to use that to assume that Matsui wouldn’t come back for the same price he signed in LAALAOALAA.

Finally, I understand not wanting to sign Matsui because they were afraid his body wouldn’t hold up.  That’s valid. But then NJ?  I think there is less chance of his body holding up and last year Matsui was better.  IF Nicks power comes back and IF he can be as healthy as Matsui then it makes sense.  But those are two big ifs.

58. I don’t know, they did fine last season.

Maybe I just wanted to see if Damon could prove his critics dead wrong again. I mean, he was supposed to be declining offensively after 2005 [wrong], not worth the contract the Yankees gave him [wrong], and washed up after 2007 [wrong].

Defensive numbers are pretty volatile, wouldn’t be shocked if he were average with the glove ’10, especially considering how excellent he was prior to this season.

*Excellent in left, of course.

And to clarify I’m not against the NJ signing.  It has the potential to be a big upgrade and I think odds are good it will be at least neutral.  I just fear guys who get injured that much.

There can be no curse until they play another WS and the Yankees don’t win it.  It should be the Blessing of ______.  Since flags fly forever, maybe the Eternal Blessing of _______.  I vote for Brad Lidge.

I vote for Luis Castillo. Or Jimmy Rollins.

they did replace them with two very good hitters (one of whom is made of glass)

See, new inanities just happen like magic.

I was stunned, frankly, to be rebutted.

Didn’t mean to pick a fight. Sorry if I hit you harder than intended.

68. Come on man, we’re talking about baseball here, nothing gets taken personally. I enjoyed it.

I’m intrigued by the option. Might we reap a draft pick out of this Johnson contract at some point? He was a type B this offseason, so if he stays on the field, you’ve got to think he’s got a good shot at that for next year and the year after. If you decline the option, can you still offer arbitration?

Maybe I missed something (and I’m being honest because it is very possible), but Matsui came back to the Yankees before he signed and they told him they didn’t want to commit to him at this point.

The way I read it (partly between the lines, of course) was that Matsui “came back” in the sense of asking if the Yankees were going to make an offer, and not necessarily in the sense of “match this and I’ll sign.”  Cashman said he didn’t want to commit in the sense of “we’ve got other stuff to deal with right now,” rather than in the sense of “no thanks, too rich for our blood.”  Apparently, Matsui wanted to wrap things up quickly instead of letting the market play out until January.  I can’t say that I really blame him, considering that he spends his winters on the other side of the date line.

we’re talking about baseball here, nothing gets taken personally

Of course, nothing goes un-rebutted either.

If you go back and read the Cashman quote about Matsui and signing him to a comparable deal as the one he signed in California’s Anaheim of Los Angeles, he’s pretty clearly speaking in abstract. He never says, “We would’ve matched that but Matsui wouldn’t bite.”

Cash was much more specific with Kay yesterday on ESPN 1050 (the pertinent part of the podcast start at about 14:30).

He said that Matsui’s agent, Arm Tellem, called him last Sunday night and told him that the Angels had imposed a deadline so he needed a decision that night. Cash told him that we aren’t in a position to make a call; we hope you can wait, but they thought they would lose the Angels’ offer.

Tellem was aksing for $7-$7.5m, but Cash thinks that if he had engaged in negotiations, he may have been able to bring the number down, but he wasn’t prepared to make a decision “with the remaining bullets” (dollars) he had. Damon was not a factor.

If you decline the option, can you still offer arbitration?

Yes.

Full disclosure: I’m usually in the optimist/“in-Cash-we-trust” mindset, so it takes a pretty obviously BAD personnel mood to get me worried.  That said, I don’t think the NJ signing is even remotely troubling.  In the worst case scenario, the Yankees have blown $5mm for one year and have to go out to find another bat at the ASB.

As to the 2 major NJ concerns, I have the following questions/comments:

“Loss of power”:  I get that 8 HRs last year could be a cause for concern, but I don’t see where Johnson has ever really been a huge power hitter.  By my calculations, even prior to 2009, he averaged one HR every 38 PA.  That puts him roughly half way between Jeter (around 43) and Abreu (about 33), neither of whom I really think of as a HR hitter.  Maybe people just expected NJ to develop into a major HR hitter and he is being unrealistically measured against those earlier expectations?

“Can’t stay healthy”:  This is more a question than a comment:  Is there really such a thing as being injury prone?  Unless we’re talking about some kind of chronic injury that dogs a player thoughout his career (like Big Unit’s bad back), it seems like players who are frequently injured are more likely the victims of bad luck than the possessors of some kind of immutable trait that causes them to suffer an unusually large number of injuries.  Looking at NJ’s injury history, he has been sidelined at various times by a bad back, a broken cheekbone from a ball in play, a broken leg from an outfield collision, a stress fracture in his hand and a ligament tear in his wrist. Perhaps someone here who is worried about NJ’s future health can explain the mechanism by which NJ’s previous injuries signify that he has an unreasonably high risk of being injured in 2010?

Is there really such a thing as being injury prone?

Probably only in the sense that some players may be more fragile than others for some innate reason, e.g., less durable or elastic ligaments or tendons,  but with regard to Nick I think most of his injuries have been, as you suggest, freak injuries.

Re: Curse vs. Blessing.

Put me in the Blessing camp as well.

How about the Blessing of Cody Ransom, then?  Second choice, of JHJr.

“some players may be more fragile”

They called him MR. GLASS…

I am such a loser.

‘Yeah, to me this is a “Why this is heaven, nor am I out of it” state of being.’

As you probably know, malt does more than Milton can, to justify God’s ways to man.

Is there really such a thing as being injury prone?

I don’t see why someone’s genetics/behavior couldn’t make them more predisposed to getting injured.  But setting that aside, I think we can agree that he has a long and consistent track record of getting injured, if we don’t like the term “injury prone.”  It seems like most of us, including me, like Nick Johnson, but I don’t see the point in trying to pretend he’s not a huge risk to be injured this year.

And I have to say I like the signing a lot less if there is no plan in place to sign Holliday, Bay, or Damon to play left next year, or some other significant addition.  Otherwise, I may have preferred to bring back Damon or Matsui rather than rolling the dice with NJ’s health.

But I do think something else is coming down the pike, so I like the move for now.

There can be no curse until they play another WS and the Yankees don’t win it.  It should be the Blessing of ______.  Since flags fly forever, maybe the Eternal Blessing of _______.  I vote for Brad Lidge.

Before the world series, when the Phillies set their roster, I decided it should be the Blessing of Miguel Cairo.

Unless we’re talking about some kind of chronic injury that dogs a player thoughout his career (like Big Unit’s bad back), it seems like players who are frequently injured are more likely the victims of bad luck than the possessors of some kind of immutable trait that causes them to suffer an unusually large number of injuries.

As has been said, maybe some players have subtle genetic/environmental issues.  Matsui is the one with the specific chronic injury, so he is probably as much of a risk as Johnson.

[80]  “But setting that aside, I think we can agree that he has a long and consistent track record of getting injured, if we don’t like the term “injury prone.” It seems like most of us, including me, like Nick Johnson, but I don’t see the point in trying to pretend he’s not a huge risk to be injured this year.”

Well, we can agree he has the record of getting injured.  The question is whether this translates into a “huge risk” of getting injured in the future.  You seem to assume it does, and I’m simply trying to understand the basis for that belief.  Why ISN’T it simply a case of bad luck?  If I toss a coin and get “heads” six times in a row, does that mean I have a “track record” of tossing heads, and that there is no “point in trying to pretend” I’m not going to toss heads on the 7th throw? 

I’m open to the possibility that there is something “genetic”/medical/anatomical/kinetic that makes a player more prone to injury.  I just want someone to explain the mechanics of this phenomenon to me so I can shake this nagging feeling that it’s really more a case of people being superstitious than people knowing what they’re talking about.

Granderson and Johnson are not only better than Matsui and Damon but they are also cheaper and younger.
I would love to have Holliday as he is a real superstar who seems like going to earn significantly less than Teixeira. But I also know that the odds of that happening are not good, but sentiments aside I rather overpay for Holliday than for Jeter next year.

[83] - You can’t know.  Maybe it has just been bad luck (people called Prior’s injuries “freak” at first too).  Maybe it is something more.  If there was some way to be able to tell the difference I’ve never heard of it.  But I’d be hard pressed to find a reason why BOTH don’t exists.

Given that we don’t know if NJ is unlucky or his physiology makes him injury prone, there is no way to deny there is added risk in signing NJ because it could be the latter.

i hear NJ is so injury prone he actually wears a full. metal. jacket.

That is the exact image I think of every time NJ comes up.  It’s so creepy.

I’m scheduled to fly into Boston on Monday morning. Wish me luck with the weather guys. I’m packing up my computer and shipping it off right now.

“he has been sidelined at various times by a bad back, a broken cheekbone from a ball in play, a broken leg from an outfield collision, a stress fracture in his hand and a ligament tear in his wrist.”

“I just want someone to explain the mechanics of this phenomenon to me”

Maybe he’s got an allele that weakens collagen fibers slightly - something like that might account for or anyway be contributing factors to the back, fracture, and ligament, maybe even the bone breaks.

Dunno where to get his MiL stats, maybe a healthy record during that time would argue for the random event hypothesis.

[88] Wow, the last comment from “Clay Hoadley (LA)”.

NJ’s (relative) lack of power doesn’t bother me one lick.  his job is to get on base for A-Rod on Teix.  which he will.  and they will drive him in.  a lot. 

also, here is something i’ve been thinking about the last few days:  the yankees have done a pretty damn good job of transitioning their roster in just one year. 

this is very unscientific, but here is the lineup in 2008:

old AND expensive players: LF, RF, 3B, SS, 1B, DH, C

going into 2010, they now have old and expensive guys at 3B, SS, C

they now have players on the right side of 30 at 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF and a 32 year old DH.  5 of 6 of those guys have reasonable contracts.

that’s a lot of turnover, quickly, without sacrificing a ton of quality, prospects, and payroll.

Why ISN’T it simply a case of bad luck?

Why not ask why his yearly OBP’s over .400 aren’t simply a case of GOOD luck?  When the sample size is large—and NJ has been injured during virtually every year of his career—aren’t we obligated to take a trend seriously?

You say you’d like an explanation for his injury history.  Again, do you ask for an explanation for any of the GOOD parts of his track record?  Do want to know WHY he is able to post .400 OBP’s every year?  Or do you just accept that his record of doing it in the past makes it likely he’ll continue to do it in the future?

Would you right off a car’s extensive history of repairs to bad luck?  If so, I’m sure there are some used car salesmen who’d like to meet you…

Again, I’m okay with the move to sign NJ, but a little concerned, especially if this is the final move of the offseason.  And it’s not just that he gets injured.  He’s also had at least one injury—the broken femur—where he needed a longer-than-typical recovery time.  I can’t explain why he always gets hurt, nor do I particularly care what the reason is.  I just hope and expect that he’s part of a plan that accounts for his increased risk of injury.

they now have players on the right side of 30 at 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF and a 32 year old DH.  5 of 6 of those guys have reasonable contracts.

I know you didn’t discuss pitching here, but it’s even more impressive when you consider the injuries to Wang and Nady, two players that surely would be mainstays had they been healthy.

nor do I particularly care what the reason is

Just to amend this:  I don’t care for the purposes of evaluating the current signing.  An exploration of what makes athletes/people “injury prone” is certainly interesting.  And maybe this is what you’re getting at…

Also, great point in [91], yup.  The transformation to youth is clearly intentional on Cash’s part.

Would you right off a car’s extensive history of repairs to bad luck?  If so, I’m sure there are some used car salesmen who’d like to meet you…

I’m also sure there’s some used car salesmen who’d like to meet me when they see that I can’t spell “write off.”

“Why not ask why his yearly OBP’s over .400 aren’t simply a case of GOOD luck?”

OBP is made up of thousands of events.  It’s well studied and known to be repeatable.  Getting hurt is a rare occurrence and a third of the above were freak, not the sort of thing historically correlated to similar events.  If you expect 2 injuries of the non-freak variety over his playing time, 4 or more is 24% likely.

“Would you right off a car’s extensive history of repairs to bad luck?”

If 1/3 of those repairs are due to a pig falling off a balcony and someone driving into the parked car at the mall and the others aren’t that far from the normal range, maybe so.

The used car analogy is a little strange.  Are you suggesting that if a car has been in 7 accidents, that makes it more likely to be in a 8th accident?

Either way, it’s not the car, it’s the driver.

If 1/3 of those repairs are due to a pig falling off a balcony

Not again!

[97] Are injuries to a player analogous to accidents or breakdowns? I’m confused.