Make it happen!

“they told Sabathia they would pursue his pals as well.”

Lebron in CF!!?!? It would be as good as making the wall 10 feet further back when we are in the field.

Well that’s smart baseball, pursue his *pals*.

As I said, Cashman will be the Sabathia family butler for home series as well.

Anything else you desire CC? An extra year? A scale that won’t go over 250 pounds? Pitching in old Yankee Stadium?

This guy [CC] better work out for this team. And no pun intended.

hahaha.

Nice.

What’s the word on Baldelli? Haven’t heard much about him lastely.

The more I think about the more I think the trade should be Cameron for Igawa & 2-3 million per year.
The Brewers get salary relief, a starting pitcher at the major league level and they free up another spot in the crowded outfield.  There’s really no reason for them to want Melky Cabrera or even less to haggle over the terms of the deal.
Everybody knows the Brewers aren’t competing this year, their starting rotation is wholly empty and Kei fixes more problems (ironic I know) then a 10 million dollar one year deal with mike cameron.

When does SG come back? I miss him and his green and white tables.

It’s pretty funny how much Rafael Furcal does not want to play for the A’s.

Great pick-up by the Braves if it is for any reasonable terms. They know can either play Johnson in the outfield or trade Escobar (Peavy?).

The Braves are a well-run organization - I think that’s probably my #1 reason why the Burnett deal does not bother me THAT much, and it’s the fact that the Braves wanted him badly, and were willing to commit nearly the same contract as the Yankees.

The Braves are a well-run organization - I think that’s probably my #1 reason why the Burnett deal does not bother me THAT much, and it’s the fact that the Braves wanted him badly, and were willing to commit nearly the same contract as the Yankees.

First off, I agree whole-heartedly with you.  However, ponder the fact that they ALSO really wanted Kyle Farnsworth, and offered him nearly the same contract (and the chance to close) as the Yankees…

Brian C. - yes, I was thinking the same thing.  Mike K. - thanks for blasting that comforting thought into oblivion.

Well that’s smart baseball, pursue his *pals*.

come on.  does this even pass the sniff test?

Sabathia is signed.  even if they DID tell him they would “pursue his pals”, which i doubt, they don’t really have to follow through.  what’s going to happen if they just tell Sabathia “hey, we tried, but we couldn’t find a match”?  nothing. 

Cameron makes a lot of sense for the Yankees on a baseball level.  they have a massive hole in CF, there are almost no options in FA available, their top position player prospect plays CF and is about a year away, and Cameron is signed to a one year deal.

the fact that he is friends with CC is a coincidence that people are trying to draw deeper conclusions from.

the fact that he is friends with CC is a coincidence that people are trying to draw deeper conclusions from.

What might have happened is that Cameron’s name came up and Cashman went “oh, we’ve actually been talking to Milwaukee about a trade.”

Just a thought about long-term contracts:
It seems to me that there are two factors working in favor of long-term contracts for top talent.
First, the real value of the later dollars committed.
Second, the contininuing, apparently inexorably rapid increase in player salary.
Giambi’s average dropped off the table - and his contract, which appeared gargantuan when he signed it, still ended up a pretty decent deal, I believe.
Yes, Teixera & CC are likely to drop off in performance by the end of their deals, but isn’t the buying power of the salary to which they’ve agreed for those years likely to drop off, too?
Of course, if there’s a drastic injury, or worse, a Pavano event, you’re screwed, but I think that’s relatively rare.
In other words, if you could insure against drastic injury, wouldn’t the long-term deal be a really good idea?

Mike K. - thanks for blasting that comforting thought into oblivion.

No problem!  If it makes you feel better, I think coaching staff may have something to do with “good” vs. “bad” Farnsworth…we’ll see if that works as well for Burnett.

In other words, if you could insure against drastic injury, wouldn’t the long-term deal be a really good idea?

One of the problems is insuring against drastic injury, since on long-term deals I don’t think you can buy insurance for more than 3 years.  But other than that you’re basic premise is correct.  If right now a marginal win is worth $5M to the Yankees, you could say CC is worth $30M this year (so they got him for a bargain!), by the end of the deal, he may only be worth 2 marginal wins.  But a marginal-win could be worth $7M to the Yankees, so he’s still worth $14M.  Though they’ll clearly be overpaying, if you average the two you get $22M per year…roughly what the Yankees are paying him. 

I think that’s another way to look at it; you pay a premium on the back-end to get a bit of a bargain up front.  If you have a steady revenue stream (I think the Yanks are good there), and a regular supply of cheap talent coming through the system (they’re working towards it), that’s not a bad strategy.

Incidentally, about the 3 years of insurance - I don’t know this, but I would guess that it’s set up as “rolling” policy, so that, at any time, only 3 years are insured, but as each year goes by without incident, another year is added to the end of the policy.  So if he makes it through 4 of the 7 years, the rest should be insured.

Regarding the gaping hole in CF:

Cameron makes sense in that he is a stop gap, with reasonable cost and minimal risk.  What about think a little bit bigger though…  How about Vernon Wells?

I am not sure if he’s even available, but people have speculated on the Blue Jays being sellers now that AJ is gone.  Vernon Wells is their biggest ticket item. Wells contract runs through 2014:

09:$1.5M, 10:$12.5M, 11:$23M, 12:$21M, 13:$21M, 14:$21M

He is also owed an $8.5M bonus in 2009 and 2010.  Including the bonus, his AAV is $19.5M.  His contract is significantly backloaded however and I bet restructuring it from 6/117M now to something closer to 6/105M with an more even distribution is possible(AAV 16M).

Wells would be a 120 OPS+ middle of the order bat, who can run and plays well defensively.  If AJax is the real deal, he could push Wells to a corner spot were his hitting would still be sufficient.  He shouldn’t cost too much in terms of prospects, because the consensus is that he is overpaid.  Maybe Kennedy, Melky and a younger, high potential pitcher gets it done.  Thoughts?

So if he makes it through 4 of the 7 years, the rest should be insured.

I would hazard it is more of an option of “renewing” than “rolling”.  That is, the Yankees after this year could buy an extra year of coverage, for whatever the rate is.  The rate will undoubtably be higher (how often do insurance rates on anything go down?).  How much higher, would depend on how CC (or Burnett) does in 2009.  E.g. if they miss a half-season for injury it would probably be higher than if they didn’t miss a start.

So it’s still very possible that years 4-7 of CC’s contract will - in essence - be uninsurable.  E.g. if CC hurts his elbow in April and undergoes TJ surgery, it’s possible the insurance will be so expensive for years 4 and 5 that the Yankees won’t pick up each one, and then if CC is constantly getting hurt in years 3 and 4 they may not pick up 6 and 7.

Maybe Kennedy, Melky and a younger, high potential pitcher gets it done.  Thoughts?

It would take a lot more than Kennedy and Melky to get Ricciardi to trade Wells to a division rival.  Plus, Jays are pretty pitching-rich.  He’d ask for someone like AJax or Montero to make it worth his while.

I bet restructuring it from 6/117M now to something closer to 6/105M with an more even distribution is possible(AAV 16M).

You don’t restructure in baseball, because the money is guaranteed.  Ask ARod about taking a pay-cut to go to Boston.  Best you could do (I think) is defer some of the money..

Wells would be a 120 OPS+ middle of the order bat, who can run and plays well defensively.

Wells’s baserunning seems to be disappearing, as he was down to 4 SB last year.  He’s also a low OBP guy, and he’s had some serious power-fluctuations throughout his career.  And his defense…according to Fangraphs, if I look at all CF with at least 800 innings last year, Wells was 2nd worst (after McLouth), worst if you do UZR/150.  Though you might expect some bounceback as he’s been positive UZR the 4 previous years.

Wells is one of the most overpaid players in baseball right now, and I’m not sure if I’d even give up that much for him (unless the Jays are eating A LOT of salary).

Interesting thought on Wells, Castro. 

Definitely something of a buy-low situation, as he’s coming off one bad season and another injury-shortened one.  It’s a better contract value than Burnett IMO.

Has his defense fallen off in recent years? 

If Melky/IPK/high-ish ceiling prospect were all it took, I’d be mighty tempted.

Wells would be a 120 OPS+ middle of the order bat, who can run and plays well defensively.

i would take the under on that 120 OPS+.

it’s an interesting thought, but my gut tells me that the Yankees would want no part of the last 3 years of that deal.

his contract is just too ugly.  the Jays would probably have to kick in a ton of money just to move him.

...and what YM said about how much Riccardi would ask for.

Insurance policies for players are for a three year max.  When year one is completed the team can then add on another year at the end of the active policy.  But this assumes that the player is healthy during year one.  If that player suffers any kind of injury the insurer can decline to extend the contract that additional year.

So say the yankees buy insurance on CC for three years and in year one he comes up with a sore elbow.  He very well could become uninsurable for years 4-7 of the deal.

In general relatively few player contracts are ever insured as its become prohibitively expensive.  The teams will take the risk rather than the fixed costs of the premiums.  There’s a lot of restriction clauses in the contracts as well and they don’t cover 100% of the costs. It’s also very difficult to get any kind of insurance on pitchers.  Some of the companies baseball uses won’t underwrite policies for pitchers at all.

Based on his contract I wouldn’t take Vernon Wells for free unless the Jays chipped in some money.  His average OPS+ for the last 4 years is 109.  He’s probably worth about half of what his contract is paying him.

yankeemonkey/Mike…ok see where you’re coming from.

But yup…do you think Burnett’s contract is “just too ugly?”  It’s one less year and $3m less AAV for a guy who’s 2 years younger than Wells.

It’s a better contract value than Burnett IMO.

i disagree. 

Burnett has been more valuable than Wells in 3 of the last 4 seasons, and is owed $35M less with a shorter committment.

Wells probably has the worst contract in baseball, non-Zito division (and i admit i may be missing someone, this is just off the top of my head).

But yup…do you think Burnett’s contract is “just too ugly?” It’s one less year and $3m less AAV for a guy who’s 2 years younger than Wells.

i think Burnett’s contract is probably one year too long.

aside from that (yes, i know), i think it’s a fine contract.

Much of any value Wells had was tied to him being a CF and at one time being perceived as an excellent defender.

Those days are long gone.  His range is very poor now.  By PMR he was -7 runs.  By UZR he was 18.  He’s gained weight and doesn’t run like he used to.  He’s also become somewhat injury prone.  He needs to be moved to a corner outfield spot.  His defense would probably be + there but his bat would only be average. His contract is a franchise killer for a team like the Jays and even for the yankees would be very wasteful.

Sorry - typo - Wells was -13 by UZR last season over the 100 games he played.

Injury-“prone”?  Missed several weeks last year but at least 149 games in the previous 3 seasons.  If Wells is injury-prone, Burnett’s a friggin’ cripple.

I agree with B-Man, Wells actually has been very durable for his career. 
He has however gotten much slower and there’s no getting around his lack of OBP.  It’s almost a Pettite v. Burnett argument again.  Wells is valuable (not 20 million valuable) b/c he is so durable.  On a rate basis he’s a slightly above average center fielder with declining range.  Meh.

Injury-“prone”?  Missed several weeks last year but at least 149 games in the previous 3 seasons.  If Wells is injury-prone, Burnett’s a friggin’ cripple.

W/o going back and looking, I had thought that Wells has played through some injuries the past few years.  Those are difficult to quantify I think; even if a paper reports he has a “nagging ankle injury” (note: just an example of a nagging injury, I don’t know if Wells has ever had an ankle injury), is he really hurting enough for it to affect his play?

Either way, over the last several years, he’s either been hurting to explain his poor (by his contract’s standards) OPS+ numbers, or he’s just not been that good.

i think people are really overestimating just how many good AND durable starting pitchers there are in MLB.

Burnett has averaged over 180 innings over the last 4 seasons with an ERA+ around 113. 

i doubt there are more than a handful of pitchers in MLB that have providing so many innings at that level of quality.

is he one of the 10 best starters in MLB?  no.  one of the 20 best?  maybe.  one of the 25 best?  probably.

Burnett is a 2/3 starter with the potential to be a #1. 

they paid a premium to make sure they got him, but it’s not the craziest contract in the world.

one of the 25 best?  probably.

I think I ageree with this, and wouldn’t that really make him more a 1/2 type starter? 

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-good-is-your-4-starter/

re: 35,

That article is one that I often remember when I hear people complaining about stuff like Phil Hughes as a #5 starter.  #5 starters are BAD.  The problems the Yankees have been having in recent years isn’t with their #5 starters.  It’s that they have #5 starters taking the innings where a #3 should be.

Burnett has averaged over 180 innings over the last 4 seasons with an ERA+ around 113. 

See, I would be *more* comfortable with Burnett if he actually *was* pitching 180 innings each year.  The problem is, he’s twice pitch under 170 (low of 135.7).  If he was massing 3 weeks (4-5 starts) a year with one injury, I’d really be less concerned than what seems to be either he is totally healthy, or misses A LOT of time.

That said - and I don’t have the subscription to BBRef so I’m not sure if I can make a report - I generally agree with you.  At the worst, he’s a top 30 pitcher.  Which means he could be the #1 for pretty much any team.  It is again the injury concern.

they paid a premium to make sure they got him, but it’s not the craziest contract in the world

Agree.

I can’t fault my team for signing the best 2 strating pitchers in the market.

massing=missing

Injury-“prone”?  Missed several weeks last year but at least 149 games in the previous 3 seasons.

I wasn’t saying he was Carl Pavano.  Nor did I anywhere equate his injury history with Burnett’s which is obviously much greater.  But Wells has had significant time losses due to injuries.

Wells only played 108 games in 2008.  That’s 1/3 of the season he missed which is way more than “several weeks.”  Over the past 5 season’s he’s averaged 140 games per season.  Not terrible by any means but also not bedrock reliable.  He’s had a serious injury to his shoulder which has cost him arm strength.  On top of that he has a number of smaller injuries that creep up and cost him time during the season.  Next year Marcel projects him to only play 139 games.  Now projecting playing time is difficult but he still is projected to miss 15% of the season.

Re: [35]: Holy freakin’ Hannah!
Or - holy way-too-much-unspeakably-wretched-pitching-in-MLB, Batman!
That study was a really good idea and the results are pretty astounding (although I can’t help thinking that a more detailed approach using more telling metrics really should have been pretty easy to pull off, once it’s being done anyway).

It’s almost a Pettite v. Burnett argument again.

You mean Cameron or Wells is a Pettitte/Burnett argument?  Don’t get me wrong—Cameron for a year at $10m is far preferable to a Wells trade.  Was kicking the tires on other options should the Cameron thing fall through.

Wells isn’t particularly good now.  And he’s going to keep aging, you know.

And he’s going to keep aging, you know.

Don’t you just hate how that always seems to happen?

Was kicking the tires on other options should the Cameron thing fall through.

How’s this (numbering for convenience, not the order I would prioritize):

1) Let Melky/Gardner fight it out in ST, send the other back to AAA (assuming Melky can start the year at AAA w/o being DFA’d), and monitor situation.
2) Sign/trade for a corner OF (Dunn, Dye, etc), and move Damon to CF.
3) Sign/trade for a 1B (other than Tex) and move Damon to CF, Swisher to LF.  Options would be Konerko (if he came cheap), Giambi…there’s got to be another out there.
4) Go all out and explore a trade for a top-notch CF (Granderson or Sizemore).  AJax is then available to trade.

I don’t think Wells fits into category #4, and he really isn’t a 1B or corner OF, so…anyway, take your pick of favorite to try for, and we’ll call Cashman to get it done.

Sign/trade for a corner OF (Dunn, Dye, etc), and move Damon to CF.

This seems like the big issue.  If Damon could play CF on a quasi-regular basis the team has a lot of options.  If it doesn’t then those options narrow quickly as they have to look for a CF instead of a corner bat.

If Damon can play CF then Swisher’s versatility becomes extremely useful, for instance.  But I don’t think Damon is an everyday CF anymore and it looks like the team doesn’t either.

Also, if Damon did move to CF could they possibly play either Manny or Dunn in the large LF in the new stadium next to Damon?  That would have to be the worst defensive OF in the game. 

It’s an attractive option just from the improving the offense standpoint.  I think Damon would project to be a large net + in CF but whether or not he could take it from an injury/ wearing down stand point would be the question.

Isn’t the issue with Damon more durability/arm than it is range, even at this point for CF?  Not sure, just asking.  I thought he was still decent in terms of range, even in CF.

Isn’t the issue with Damon more durability/arm than it is range, even at this point for CF?

I believe this is correct.

take your pick of favorite to try for

Here’s a list of options I can think of.. they’re either FA’s, rumored to be on the block, or might make sense to being blocked at their position:

David DeJesus
Mike Cameron
Rocco Baldelli
Jim Edmonds
Delmon Young
Rick Ankiel
Reggie Willits

If Damon could play CF on a quasi-regular basis the team has a lot of options.

I’ve stuck up for Damon because he’s put up good offensive numbers so far, but this is totally right. If Damon was still a CFer (like he was signed to be), then the number of options is huge. Swisher or Nady can be in LF or RF and you can go for a 1B, or Swisher can be at 1B and you can go for a LF or RF, etc, etc.

Also, if Damon did move to CF could they possibly play either Manny or Dunn in the large LF in the new stadium next to Damon?  That would have to be the worst defensive OF in the game.

If Damon was still capable of CF, I would think they could put Nady in LF, sign Dunn to play RF, and then move Dunn to DH when Matsui and Damon depart.

Isn’t the issue with Damon more durability/arm than it is range, even at this point for CF?

If durability is the issue, then why can’t Damon + Baldelli work in CF? You have the L/R platoon and you basically have two partial men trying to equal one regular man. Sounds about right.

Also, if Damon did move to CF could they possibly play either Manny or Dunn in the large LF in the new stadium next to Damon?  That would have to be the worst defensive OF in the game.

Yeah, it’s worse than I thought.  A while ago I think SG was indicating Dunn would probably only be a couple of runs below average in LF, next year at least.  By UZR though, he’s really bad; worse than -10 runs each of the last three years.  At 1B it’s tougher to tell because the sample is so small.  In total, it looks like in about 900 innings at 1B he’s been worth -8.3 runs (-12.5/150 games).  Dunn at 1B and Swisher in LF may be better.  Dunn at DH is best to upgrade the offense, though there’s that sticky problem of Matsui.

I think the concern with Damon is more durability and his arm.  With Gardner as a potential backup and a guy who could rest him would they give it a shot?

If Damon can play CF then everything changes.  Tex becomes a near must have at close to any price.  If Damon can play CF then they should think very hard about breaking the budget this year.

If Damon can play CF you are essentially replacing Gardner with Tex.  Gardner could hit at close to replacement at CF.  To trade a replacement level CF bat with a +4 WAR first baseman is a huge pickup.  Just guessing off the top of my head that could be a 5-6 win pickup.  Tex>Swisher at 1b by 3 WAR; Swisher in LF=Damon or maybe -1; Damon>Gardner by +3 in CF.  Something like that.

The ideas that Wells is both way overpaid and would require high end prospects like Montero to obtain, appear contradictory to me.  I think that he is substantially overpaid; thus the reason the Riccardi may want to unload him.  Maybe I even overstated the package it would take to get him, given how onerous the contract is.  How about Kennedy, Melky, Igawa (his 12M offset some of Wells’ salary).

Looking more closely at some of the numbers, I agree that it is a stretch to pencil Wells in for a 120 OPS+, but I do think that his projections are very affected by his horrible 2007 (perhaps rightfully so, but this would also imply that if 2007 was an abberation, then he may well exceed his projections).  I also realize that his defense has gotten worse, but he is probably closer to average than his -12 UZR last year.  Last year was by far his worst defensively and given the limitations of the metrics, I would say that while it is likely that he is slipping, it is unlikely for it to happen all at once.

So 19M per (with much of it backloaded) for a 29 yo an average defensive CF with a projected OPS around 800 (and possible upside) for Kennedy, Melky, and the 12M salary relief that Igawa represents?

On second thought, I don’t think I would do the deal either.  Somehow my image of Vernon Wells is better than he really is when you look at the numbers.

Looking more closely at some of the numbers, I agree that it is a stretch to pencil Wells in for a 120 OPS+,

If it’s a reclamation project you’re into, why not Andruw Jones? Much less risk with the shorter deal and less money, but it seems like the upside is the same.

Unless the word is out that Jones was a juicer, the dude has basically become something other than a baseball player. How the hell does that happen? I remember seeing something about how he had a legit chance to hit 750 HR’s.

Somehow my image of Vernon Wells is better than he really is when you look at the numbers.

in fairness to yourself, i think this is true of a LOT of people.  myself included at various points over the last few years.

could be from listening to Jim Kaat fall all over himself describing Wells 15 times a year from 2005-2007…

How the hell does that happen?

Have you watched him swing the last two years?  It’s like he is closing his eyes and swinging as hard as he possibly can at every pitch.

Have you watched him swing the last two years?

No, I didn’t catch many of the 75 games he played in last year.

in fairness to yourself, i think this is true of a LOT of people.  myself included at various points over the last few years.

Wells has probably had two great years (2003 & 2006) and 3 average years (2004, 2005, 2008) and one bad one (2007).  He’s probably about average over all.  Which isn’t bad.  But not worth a boatload of money.  Especially not adding prospects as well.

The ideas that Wells is both way overpaid and would require high end prospects like Montero to obtain, appear contradictory to me.

Remember that there are two premiums the Yankees have to pay 1) being in the AL East and 2) being the Yankees.

SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Yankees aren’t optimistic about signing Mark Teixeira, and “seem ready to pounce for Manny Ramirez.”  He says the Yankees “love the idea of Manny

Manny is a great hitter but a poor fit for the Yankees unless Damon can play center every day and could he possibly conform to the Yankee’s stupid, arcane grooming rules and Girardi’s buzz cut, Marine mentality?  And his performance last year with Boston was a disgrace.

I’m still impressed that Boras was able to get Jones a 2-year deal for a total of $36M out of the Dodgers.  I mean, he had an OPS+ of 88 in 2007.  I could see offering a one-year deal with club option, but was anyone else really going to give him that second year?  His 2007 was over 2 SD off of his projection for that year, and that probably means something’s not totally square.  How’s that 2008 OPS+ of 34 looking for $18M?

SI.com’s Jon Heyman…says the Yankees love the idea of Manny

Coming up next from the Boras News Service, Derek Lowe cures AIDS in Africa!

He says the Yankees “love the idea of Manny

I think *Hank Steinbrenner* loves the idea of Manny.  He’s made no bones about it.  I think there are a few people around him - whether they are serious or sycophants I don’t know - who agree.

However, I don’t think the people who *actually* are going to be doing anything about player acquisition (in order of pull, I think Cashman, Hal, Girardi) are that excited about the idea of Manny.  That doesn’t mean they won’t sign him, but I think it will be a REAL discount for him to go there.

“This guy [CC] better work out for this team. And no pun intended.”

Don - credit where credit is due!

I, too, love the <u>idea</u> of Manny.  I just don’t love Manny.

Going back to Mike K.‘s 4 scenarios…

I think anything involving Damon in CF (#2 and #3) is most problematic.  What are the GB/FB numbers on CC and Burnett?

Maybe this has been covered, but isn’t Swisher a not-embarrassing CF option in the event of the acquisition of a 1B? 

My first choice, call it #4a, is sign Dunn and trade Matsui (or Nady or Damon, who have more value in the trade market, but then you’re forcing Dunn to play the field).  In which case, I feel good enough about the offense that Melky or Gardner in the #9 hole is swallowable.

Failing any of that, I take the conservative route and stand pat, hoping for the best with Melky/Gardner.

Has there been any indication at all that a player like Sizemore or Granderson is available?  That would pretty much cost the deed to the new stadium.  Start with Hughes, AJax and it would grow from there. 

But there should really be a way to make the Cameron thing work.  If this from Jon Heyman is accurate, then I think Cash might be driving too hard a bargain:

The on-again, off-again Mike Cameron-for-Melky Cabrera trade is said to be on the “back burner” now as the Yankees and Brewers haven’t been able to agree on how much of Kei Igawa’s contract the Brewers will pay, or more specifically, how overpaid Cameron is.

The Brewers have agreed to take Igawa and offered to pay a small portion of the $12 million remaining on Igawa’s contract. But apparently the Yankees believe it is too small a portion.

Heyman is basically a mouthpiece for Boras.

that said, if the reports are true that Boston is going to offer Teixeira a “historic” contract that is 8 years in length, i don’t think i can blame the Yankees for not matching that.

i want Teixeira, but it *may* be a smarter move to sign Manny for 3 years and move enough pieces around that he rarely has to play defense. 

even though Manny is much older, i doubt there projects to be much of an OFFENSIVE discrepancy between Manny and Teixeira over the next 3 years. 

and this is coming from someone who isn’t really thrilled with the idea of manny coming to the Bronx. but from a baseball perspective, it does make sense. 

also, it makes a TON of sense for Boras to push Teixeira to Boston.  by pushing Teixeira to Boston, there *could* be a bidding war between the Yankees and the Angels to get Manny.  if the Yankees were to sign Teixeira, Boston won’t be involved with Manny.

he needs to get the 3 “spenders” to the table competing for his 2 clients.

I, too, love the idea of Manny.  I just don’t love Manny.

That’s exactly it.  Who needs the headaches and the BS?  If we were talking about a centerfielder with prodigious centerfield talents despite a mental age of 6…then maybe you takae the chance.  But we just can’t take on a 3rd DH.

Maybe this has been covered, but isn’t Swisher a not-embarrassing CF option in the event of the acquisition of a 1B?

Yes.  I think we’re pretty much in agreement here (could be wrong), that Damon in CF is probably a bit better than Swisher in CF, though there are concerns of Damon holding up.  But for sure, Swisher could play CF.

The problem is trading Matsui.  Right now that would be my #1 option as well.  I think there are two schools of thought on that right now.  Either that he IS tradeable to a handful of West Coast teams, but the Yankees would pay a good chunk of his salary (and get little back), OR that he is simply untradeable.  I tend towards the former, but have no evidence, so…

Has there been any indication at all that a player like Sizemore or Granderson is available?  That would pretty much cost the deed to the new stadium.  Start with Hughes, AJax and it would grow from there.

No, but despite what GM’s say ANY player is available.  The problem is the cost.  If it could get one of those two, I’m very comfortable giving up AJax.  A little less but still OK giving up Hughes.  Not sure what else the Yankees have that would be attractive to those teams (besides Cano), but I’m sure we could find something.  I really doubt they would ever get to that point, but it is AN option.

...it *may* be a smarter move to sign Manny for 3 years and move enough pieces around that he rarely has to play defense. 

How?  I mean, are you assuming Matsui is a better option to play LF than Manny—positively terrifying.

Besides, doesn’t Manny (assuming you don’t also get Cameron), virtually guarantee Damon in CF? 

Unless, per my option 4a above, you can swing a trade for Matsui, Damon or Nady…and then you can carry Melky/Gardner’s stick in CF.

I’m actually kind of upset that the DH can’t be used for someone other than the pitcher.  It would be really neat to either DH for Garnder or Molina when CC was pitching.  That would add interest to the game, and I’m not really seeing too much a problem with it.

What are the GB/FB numbers on CC and Burnett?

Both run up high G:FB ratios - Burnett in particular.  Burnett is almost always above 50% GB.  AJ’s GB:FB is always > 1.5 and gets up to 1.7-1.8. It’s been as high as 2.6.  Burnett’s a lot like Joba.  Hitters just don’t get any lift off of his fastball.

I think this is probably a major reason why they were so keen on AJ - between the K’s and GB he makes things easier on the defense.

CC’s doesn’t generate as many GB.  He’s been around 1.2-1.5.  Last year was his best 1.47.

The staff next year will generate tremendous numbers of K’s and ground balls.  Wang, AJ, Chamberlain will all have > 50% GB (perhaps >55%) and CC will be 47-48%.

Between the pitching and getting rid of Abreu there will be large gains in the OF defense next year (barring manny or dunn in LF that is…)

It would be really neat to either DH for Garnder or Molina when CC was pitching.

I hope Girardi is at least creative enough to use CC as a lefty PH on occasion when it’s not his turn.

Eh, won’t happen.  Not after what happened to Wang on the basepaths in Houston.

How?  I mean, are you assuming Matsui is a better option to play LF than Manny—positively terrifying.

i was talking about trading someone.  that wasn’t clear, i apologize.

more like dumping matsui somewhere, which is unlikely i realize, and letting Damon and Manny share LF/DH.

that would probably insure you get the most out of Damon health-wise.

you could probably get away with Manny in LF if Gardner is your CFer.

but now we have to ask, is Manny/Damon/Gardner even better than Matsui/Damon/Cameron??  not sure i know the answer to that. 

i think it hinges on how many games we believe Matsui will actually play.

I’m intrigued by the idea of Damon/Baldelli splitting CF as per [50].
How does that project?

is Manny/Damon/Gardner even better than Matsui/Damon/Cameron??

Well, Damon cancels himself out.

Gardner is unknown because he’s still growing and his defensive sample size is small, but his tools are evident.

Cameron is pretty solidly slightly below average defensively and a good bet for a 105 OPS+ with a ton of K’s.

Matsui would have to have a career year to be better than Manny’s regular projection, but with that, Manny also comes at 3-4 year contract and more than twice the annual salary, PLUS all the bullshit.

I would say that Manny/Damon/Gardner is better, but by how much, who knows.

I think the Yankees should view it like the Red Sox are with Tex. The Red Sox are not letting a good player being at a position block them from pursuing a much better player at the same position.

And I think that’s a good approach, provided that the player in question is someone like Tex or Manny.

These guys are unique talents that rarely make the open market, even at Manny’s advanced age.

By the way, if the Yankees DO end up signing Manny and essentially punting defense, maybe they should just bring back Giambi at a discount (unlike Abreu, Giambi seems open to giving the Yankees a discount) to platoon with Swisher at first (Swisher is much better against lefties). That’d only be if Giambi is REALLY willing to give a sizable discount for a very short contract, of course.

Is DeJesus available now that KC got Crisped?  Would Melky plus IPK be a doable deal?  a good deal for us??

I’d argue that there’s a difference between “blocking” and “not offering a significant upgrade for the cost”.  I’m not sure it’s a good idea to think about assets as “blocking” an acquisition, the assets merely give a baseline value that the acquisition must improve onto make it worth the outlay.  Having a 1 WAR player doesn’t really block you from acquiring a 3 WAR player, it just means that you should consider a 1 WAR discount on the new player.

It seems to me that Manny fits into the second category, especially given his reported cost.  $40M/2 years?  Maybe, but even then I think I’d pass.

Re: DeJesus, we went over that a couple weeks ago.  I think the consensus was that he’s not a great value, and probably couldn’t play a decent CF.

Hey whats up I’m new to this site and think its great.

I was wondering if anyone can project or what anyone thinks on this subject.

Say instead of getting Manny, this is to dh, We get Dunn

Dunn is younger and cheaper and doesnt have mannys history of antics.

If we got Dunn then we would probably be able to afford Cameron too.

So whats more valuable to the team Dunn + Cameron or Manny. This is an assumption that Manny and Dunn would be the DH. Where we hopefully unloaded Matsui for atleast something while eating some of his salary.

Manny is a complete wild card at this point, but if you can get him on a short deal, there’s a chance of it being a huge help. Hits to RF with power; gets up for challenges (which a new gig in NY would probably be to him, though here we get into a murky area). Someone hide his mitt though.

Hey everyone.  New guy, like Dynasty.  Seems to me the Yanks should hold off doing anything for a big bat right now, unless Manny is willing to take a year contract to live at home with his folks while chasing 600 homers.  This July, there are going to be some serious sellers looking to off load salary.  Lets combine the wisdom of Billy Beane and the Steinbrenners.  Take the first half of the year to see what you have and what you need (Beane) then throw the checkbook at the problem (I think you can guess who this will be).  I wonder, for example, what the situation might be in Detroit if 1. the team disappoints again; and 2. the big three have to seriously downsize.

I’m very much interested in the idea of Dunn.  It all depends on his contract, but I definitely see him as a better deal than Manny.  Some days he could play 1B, Swisher in LF, and Damon in CF when Wang was pitching.  Not sure if Mastui is moveable, but that would leave the position players looking like this (assuming 12 pitchers, which you might be able to cut to 11)

Posada C
Swisher 1B
Cano 2B
Jeter SS
ARod 3B
Damon LF
Gardner CF
Nady RF
Dunn DH

Matsui (DH)
Molina (BUC)
4th OF (Melky?)
UIF

I think that lineup could sustain having Gardner in there, or the trade for Cameron would still be available, just push Gardner to the 4th outfielder and put Cameron in the lineup.  Dunn makes a lot of sense.

I was wondering if anyone can project or what anyone thinks on this subject.

See here.  If you’re new here you may not know much about CAIRO; it’s a system SG developed for projecting players, and it seems solid.  As good as any projection system.  Oddly, he didn’t include a link to his previous article where he describes it, but you can find one with some searching.

Also if you’re new here from the last couple of weeks, our fearless leader is on vacation.  He’s the expert at running these projections/comparisions.

For my own two-cents (and though I linked the article, I didn’t check the projections), I’d take Dunn over Manny.  Dunn is younger, cheaper, and I’d trust him more to play the outfield (or especially, first-base) for a few weeks if there were an injury.  Also, I could do w/o the baggage of Manny.

Dunn + Cameron minus Matsui strikes me as a very sane approach.  An offensive and defensive upgrade.

If you can’t unload Matsui, no sweat.  Go into the season with all of them.  Someone will get hurt in no time.  Meanwhile, Nady becomes a platoon player, though that mitigates the defensive upgrade.

I also like the idea of shopping Damon or Nady instead of Matsui, as they’re more desirable commodities.  If that were to happen…well, how poorly does Dunn project at 1B?  Is it better to have Swisher in the OF and Dunn at 1B or vice versa?

What kind of numbers are being bandied about for Dunn?

I think that lineup could sustain having Gardner in there, or the trade for Cameron would still be available, just push Gardner to the 4th outfielder and put Cameron in the lineup.

I really don’t know if it make sense to have Melky on the team then.  I’d REALLY REALLY want to get rid of Matsui and get another infielder (have one that is good at the corners with some power, and one that is good up the middle with some speed).  Even after that, you have a 1B and a DH who are both outfielders by nature.  One of which you may be OK with in LF on a regular basis instead of Damon, and one you’re probably okay playing LF in a pinch.  Also, your OF defense should be decent, so you wouldn’t really have a need for a late inning defensive replacement.  I might actually prefer Shelly Duncan over Melky…

That’s the issue.  I’m not sure too many have, and I don’t see him doing much negotiating until Teixeira gets signed so that he can offer his services to the teams that didn’t get him.  The Diamondbacks were concerned enough that they didn’t offer him arbitration though, so he won’t cost draft picks.

  If that were to happen…well, how poorly does Dunn project at 1B?  Is it better to have Swisher in the OF and Dunn at 1B or vice versa?

Not sure how he *projects*, but I posted before that over his career he’s played at a pace of about -12.5 runs/150 GP by UZR.  So he’s probably Giambi-ish at 1B.  Honestly what would be best is if Dunn is only playing the field occasionally, like LF if Wang is pitching, maybe get some time at 1B during a blowout.  I do believe that you want these guys in the field occasionally in case you NEED them to play (e.g. during interleague).  But really, keep Dunn away from the defense as much as possible.

Dunn’s skills at the plate would be a big plus and it seems like the market for him is going to be very soft so he could be very affordable.

It’s tough to make him fit in anywhere outside of DH.  If he had more experience at 1b and you could be reasonably sure he’d be OK that would help.  But he’s hardly played there.  And while he might have been passable in LF in bandbox in Cincy I can’t see him playing LF at the stadium.  He doesn’t have the arm to play RF either.

Swisher to LF would be a defensive plus.  But playing Dunn at 1b he’d be involved with way too many chances to take a risk on, particularly with the ground ball oriented offense they have.

Marcel projects Tex to have a .386 wOBP next season.  Dunn projects to be a .372 wOBA player.  Now, I think context independent stats can significantly overestimate the value of a player like Dunn but given the cost disparity between Dunn and Tex a difference in wOBA of 0.014 looks very, very good.  That a difference of around 7 context independent runs between them over 650 at bats.

What is that cost disparity? 

Would Dunn take—ballpark—4-5 years/$12-$15m per?

This July, there are going to be some serious sellers looking to off load salary.

i think this is a good point.

Is Dunn durable?  Giambi’s defense at 1B was a problem, but the bigger problem IMO was his health.

If Dunn = Giambi, basically (defensive bad, offensively excellent), but can be counted on (as much as one can ever count on any player) to be healthy enough to play ~150+ games… that’s an upgrade I’m interested in, even if I prefer Tex.

I dont’ think Dunn is going to get a 4 year deal and I don’t think he’s going to get close to $15M/yr.

Forwhatever reason, it’s pretty clear people inside of baseball just simply don’t like Dunn or his game.  And I wouldn’t just chalk this up to the old saw that the guys who run baseball teams are just dim witted, don’t understand stats., etc.

The Phillies didn’t even speak to Dunn.  No negotiations at all with Dunn before signing Ibanez.  Besides the rumors of the Nats should they not get Tex I haven’t heard much of any rumored interest in Dunn.  And the Nats speculation seems to due to Bowden being there.

To give a basic answer my own question, he’s played 160, 160, 152 and 158 games the past four years.  That > Giambi.

also, his HR totals in those years:  40, 40, 40, 40

which is as odd as it is impressive

I might be the minority in this but I also think Dunn and/or Cameron > Texeira.

In terms of roster flexibility and contract I dont think we should give Tex 8-10 years.

What happens if Montero cant stick at catcher but his bat forces him to the majors, which would be a good thing. I just think situations liek that make giving another player an 8-10 year contract is not the best option.

Also since Ibanez got 3/30 million can you really see him getting that much more then him in this market?

Thanks for that link btw.

While Dunn would be a quality addition, I disagree that there is room for him without moving an outfielder/DH
Right now in the outfield the yankees have
1. Damon
2. Nady
3. Gardner
4. Matsui
4.5 Melky (though I’d rather start him in AAA and see if he can recover some)

I think its a serious mistake to start Damon in center for more than 2 games per week in light of the health problems he’s had the last few years.  Since the only other legitimate center fielder is Gardner.  It means that you are sitting 1 or 2 13 million dollar players everyday of the week or are playing a horrible outfield defense.
The payroll is currently at around 180 million, if the Yanks bring back Andy thats 190 million.  I’m not sure they are willing to break 200 million when it means sittting a player on a daily basis who makes that kind of cash and I’m pretty sure Matsui is untradeable at his salary.

Nady is probably the easiest guy to trade.  Not necessarily the best guy to trade, but the easiest.  Anybody wonder if Burrell could play 1B?  Or RF for a year until Matsui’s contract is up?  Is he going to cost more than Dunn?

The on-again, off-again Mike Cameron-for-Melky Cabrera trade is said to be on the “back burner” now as the Yankees and Brewers haven’t been able to agree on how much of Kei Igawa’s contract the Brewers will pay, or more specifically, how overpaid Cameron is.

The Brewers have agreed to take Igawa and offered to pay a small portion of the $12 million remaining on Igawa’s contract. But apparently the Yankees believe it is too small a portion.

For some reason, Heyman is really pushing the idea that Cameron is overpaid.  Or at least the idea that the Yankees think Cameron is overpaid.  But doesn’t what he’s reporting sound more like haggling over how overpaid Igawa is rather than how overpaid Cameron is?