Boooooooooo!

Hopefully, Burnett and Lowe don’t want to play in New York.

I would much rather have Teixeira than Lowe or Burnett. And he’d only cost a little bit more, with so much better (and reliable) production.

How sweet would it be to finally have A-Rod bat 3rd where he belongs, with Tex behind him? And the sweet, sweet nectar of guys like Jeter and Swisher surrounding.

Dammit.

hopefully this is just a ploy.

If the Yankees are willing to do whatever it takes to sign Sabathia, this could just be an attempt to drive up the price on Lowe and Burnett.

5. or, they’re making those moves so CC don’t get them into a bidding war against themself.

hopefully this is just a ploy

Strikes me as a transparently obvious one at that.  They’re clearly posturing to keep these guys from taking anybody else’s first offer, but they’re also not throwing any deals their way until things shake out with Sabathia.

he’d only cost a little bit more

People keep saying this, but when all is said and done, I really doubt it’s going to be all that close.  Teixeira is going to get an absolutely stupid contract.  Maybe 8/200; maybe 10 years.  Lowe and Burnett will cost more per season, but for half as many seasons.  That does matter, even to the Yankees.

How about this for an offensive projection:

Posada’s 2007
Teixeira’s 2008
Cano’s 2007
Jeter’s 2006
A-Rod’s 2007
Damon’s 2008
Swisher’s 2006 (but put him in center)
Nady’s 2008
Matsui’s 2007

I call this my “all-upside” team. 1100 runs?

Teixeira is going to get an absolutely stupid contract.  Maybe 8/200; maybe 10 years.

I actually don’t think it’s going to get that high, personally.  At least, not guaranteed money.  Just a feeling, but I think if the Yankees go with an offer of 7/150, with an option for 28 (since the contract is back-loaded) and like a $4M buyout, they could have him, or at least be close.

And while it is true the Yankees would worry some about length of contract for Tex v. Burnett/Lowe, they only have one player signed past 2013 I think (ARod).  Two if they sign CC for 6.  I’d have to think they’d be willing to extend Tex that far, especially as the point is to build a farm-system that will hopefully be producing cheap, ML talent by then.

90 million dollars are coming off the books and the rumors are that the Yankees don’t want to spend them back, so maybe they want to spend 70 million to have a payroll of 20 million lower than last season (or a 190 million payroll). So why not sign both Teixera and Sabathia, I don’t see this too complicated. I know that is not easy to get both, but clearly they have to try it before they try to sign Burnett or Lowe to ridicolous contracts.

The Yanks aren’t signing both CC and Teix.  Even the Yanks can’t afford that.  I keep hearing how the new stadium will “print money” but have yet to see a report that actually supports that notion.  Sure, the Yanks brass put together a great economic report showing how profitable the new stadium would be, but that report was used to get public funding for the construction.

Outside of that, I’ve not seen anything that supports the Yanks being able to print money with their new stadium.  The Yanks have a financial threshold, just like every other team.  Granted, the Yanks ceiling is much higher, but we may have already see it: Cashman himself has said they are going to cut payroll and won’t approach last year’s almost $210 million payroll. 

From all the public pronouncements and rumors, it seems as if the Yanks are targeting CC.  He is their clear #1 priority.  If for some reason CC doesn’t sign, then I could see the Yanks signing Teix and Burnett and Lowe.

But if CC does sign, I think the Yanks will take one of Burnett/Lowe and call it an offseason - save a minor move or two.

The difference between Burnett and Teixeira is around $6 million a year. The Yankees can’t afford that? Really?

Why the fuck would you spend over 30M for Burnett and Lowe when you can get Tex and Pettitte for a similar price?

“I call this my “all-upside” team. 1100 runs?”

Actually, they make so few outs per unit of production that they each get about 775 at bats.  1700 runs!

If they sign CC (25 mill per year), Teixera (25 mill per year) and Pettitte (12 mill for one year), they will spend 20 millions less than last season. SURE THEY CAN AFFORD IT.

I really think you have to take the Cashman pronouncements with a grain of salt. Remember “Bubba Crosby is our starting center fielder?” We just have to suffer through a front office that will not be honest with us. I think we all prefer that to a front office that really does pursue Burnett at ridiculous costs.

And I brought this up in a previous thread, but the topic moved away from it, so I’ll bring it up again because I’m curious what you all think. What about an opt out clause relatively early in the Teix contract? It makes it more appealing to him (could be the difference between him signing here or somewhere else with a similar deal), and (given Boras) he’s at least somewhat likely to exercise it. That way you effectively get him for a short(ish) term contract. Obviously the deal couldn’t be ridiculous, because that’d make him less likely to opt out, but you could at least discount the value by the probability that he does opt out.

As everyone always says, some team will overpay.

The risk, I think, is that he gets seriously hurt before the option and keeps the guaranteed money, no?

I’ve not seen anything that supports the Yanks being able to print money with their new stadium.

MLB’s bizarre accounting rules mean that the new stadium will dramatically reduce what the Yankees pay in revenue sharing.  So even if they don’t print any more money than they did with the old one, they will get to keep a lot more.

That way you effectively get him for a short(ish) term contract.

Only if he performs the way you hope he does.  If he gets hurt or declines, you’re stuck with overpaying him in the out years.  There’s a reason why agents like opt-outs and teams like options.

Cory- I think we should overpay to both CC and Tex. Free agents usually get more than they deserve, so overpaying to get the best FA out there is not bad at all. Those FA are much more valuable to the Yanks than to almost any other team in baseball because the value of the marginal win for us is higher than the average and also we can’t afford to miss the palyoffs for 2 seasons in a row with a new ballpark.

There are all sorts of ways you can make CC, Teix and a couple of other free agents fit last years payroll.  But you also have to take the long view.  If the Yanks sign CC and Teix to long-term contracts, then they have a significant chunk of their payroll tied up in three players: A-Rod, CC and Teix.  Is that a smart move these days, when teams are trying to get more flexible in terms of payroll?

Sure, you can offer gobs of money to CC and Teix over a shorter period of years, but there’s no assurance that they will take it.  Why would Teix take a five year guaranteed contract from the Yanks when he can get eight years from the Angels?  What if CC says “six years is great, but if you want me, I want nine years.”

It’s at these junctures that Cashman has to realize that the Angels, or most other teams, can offer Teix eight years: they don’t have any other huge mega-deals on their books.  The Yanks already have one in A-Rod.  In other words, the Yanks, even with all their financial resources, can’t go into each free agent bidding war with the top contract offer. 

Again, I’m probably 100% wrong, but I don’t see the Yanks signing both CC and Teix, or even wanting to.

The line about teams overpaying was meant to imply that he will have reason to opt out when the clause comes up, not that the Yankees shouldn’t pursue him. I believe they should I also get that options are preferable, but I don’t think anyone is offering Teix a short deal with a lot of option years, so I was suggesting that an opt out in a market where someone will overpay can at least be likely to achieve the same end.

I suppose that the injury risk is there, but isn’t that the same as the risk in signing a long deal without the opt out?

I was suggesting that an opt out in a market where someone will overpay can at least be likely to achieve the same end.

I suppose that the injury risk is there, but isn’t that the same as the risk in signing a long deal without the opt out?

Yes, the injury risk is still there with a long-term deal without the opt-out, but there is also no upside benefit.  Basically, with the opt-out, if he’s playing well, he’s gone, if he’s playing poorly and/or hurt, you’re on the hook for the salary.  The team assumes ALL the long-term risk and gets none of long-term benefit.

That should have been written with about 30 fewer commas, but I hope my point was clear.

Crap.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/11182008/sports/yankees/yankees_prepare_a_j__offer_139209.htm

(hat tip noMaas)

  But you also have to take the long view.  If the Yanks sign CC and Teix to long-term contracts, then they have a significant chunk of their payroll tied up in three players: A-Rod, CC and Teix.  Is that a smart move these days, when teams are trying to get more flexible in terms of payroll?

It isn’t a bad move to sign good players to long term contracts, although I know is better to sign them to 4 year deals. But that’s the price you have to pay to have those players on your team and it really worth it. Those players are so good that there is a good chance that they will be productive 10 years from now.

Again, I’m probably 100% wrong, but I don’t see the Yanks signing both CC and Teix, or even wanting to.

I really hope you are wrong because the FO must be out of their minds if they spend the money on players not named Sabathia and Teixera. I really hope that if we don’t get those 2 players, they don’t spend the money on any other players.

Those players are so good that there is a good chance that they will be productive 10 years from now.

Really?  CC has pitched a lot of innings and he’s not in the best shape.  You really want to pay him 20 million a season, much less pay him X amount of dollars 10 years from now?  Especially considering you’ll probably be able to find a much cheaper, younger player who will match CC’s performance at age 38?

Teix is good, but is he worth the contract he’ll get.  Probably not.  So why overpay him by a large amount?  If you really need a 1B, then why not try to pull a trade for a younger player, or at least a player that won’t cost you around 200 million.

Ok. But if they don’t want to overpay for elite players, they should not overpay for players like Burnett, Lowe, Dunn, Burrell and Ramirez or trade Hughes for Peavy.

I rather overpay for elite players for a longer frame of time than overpay for players like Matsui, Damon, Pavano, Igawa, etc. for 4 or 5 years.

Not sure Damon should be in that list, I think that was a pretty good deal, especially given how desperate the Yanks were for a CF. 

re:[23] - I’m not reading anything more in that article than what’s been said already.  I’m willing to bet its just posturing.

They were desperate for a CF because they did not sign Beltran in 2004. Damon wasn’t a good deal given that he played CF for just one year of his 4 year contract.

He played a third of the season in 2007 as the CF.  And even as a LF, he’s carried his weight with the bat, along with playing fairly good defense.

Unless this Burnett/Lowe talk is just posturing, which it could be, I don’t understand the approach.

To me, if you want to throw money around this offseason, you go all in to sign Sabathia and Teixeira, and you bring Pettitte back.  Even if you wind up overpaying Pettitte, it’s okay because he’s willing to sign for one year.  I don’t understand why the plan seems to be to sign Sabathia/Burnett/Lowe rather than Sabathia/Teixeira/Pettitte.

I mean, there’s an argument that Teixeira should be the top priority, ahead of Sabathia, because the Yankees have so few good position player prospects, while they have several pitching prospects.

I don’t get it.

I’d imagine the plan is CC or Tex (with CC highly favored) and Burnett or Lowe.
Then you go for Pettite or Moose as your other starter.

I’d like to see Tex and Burnett and Pettitte, especially if CC stays in the NL.  Both Burnett and Pettitte way underperformed their FIP ERA’s last year.

I’m willing to bet its just posturing.

It’s not even posturing.  It’s just George King quoting un-named sources talking through their hats.

CC has pitched a lot of innings and he’s not in the best shape.

Is there really any correlation between body type and arm injuries?  I mean, worrying about the mileage makes sense, but the fact that he’s a big guy is neither here nor there.  As Mickey Lolich said, I don’t throw with my gut.  Just took a quick look at the first over-weight lefty I could think of—from age 28-37, he threw 2,144 innings and went 152-97.  Now, I’m not suggesting that me mystery pitcher is a particularly good comp for Sabathia, but fat guys certainly can be durable.  And good.

“Is there really any correlation between body type and arm injuries? “

I remember reading one study that showed the opposite: fat pitchers are more durable.

You’ve never heard of anyone going on the DL with pulled fat, have you?

I have no affinity for Abraham, but when he is not analyzing, he sometimes comes up with terrific stuff.

“Jason Varitek doesn’t learn pitching staffs,” Boras said without a pause. “He teaches them.”

This could easily be part of random facts about Captain Intangibles.

I don’t always agree with Steve Goldman on the Yes website, but his view on Tex is right on. I hope that the front office is simply posturing indifference towards Tex, but I fear that it may be genuine.  Goldman points out that the so called advisors are relying on a big upswing from Swisher. This may happen but probably a longer shot than not.  Tex is consistent.  Overpaying him will happen by some team, but at least they end up with a predictable performer and not one you have to “project” doing something. 

The problem with the Yankee management is not the overpays of good talent like A-rod and Jeter. The problem is the “projected” guys like Pavano, Igawa, Wright and several others.
To consider throwing real money and years at Burnett and even worse, Lowe, ignores and makes light of the commitment they made to our young pitchers and the philosphy of recent years of development.  Even worse it may be the reason they pass on Tex.  The team picks poor times it seems to be bargain shoppers.

Count me among the crowd wanting the Yankees to go after the top-tier FAs only.

The only reason I can even imagine that the Yankees might be going after Burnett/Lowe at the expense of Texeira is that are resigned to keeping 1st base open for one or more of Posado, Jeter and A-Rod.  Mind you, I don’t AGREE with that strategy, but it’s the best way for me to understand what might be going on behind the scenes in the Yankee brass.  (That said, I remember Cash pooh-poohing the idea of Jeter at 1b, and I suspect he would respond similarly regarding A-Rod, so if there’s any truth to this it would have to be about Posado.)

[35] and, esp., [30] (which expresses my thoughts perfectly) seconded.

Thanks DaPuj. I guess I was thinking that there’s a point where even if he’s playing well that year you don’t want the rest of the years of the contract. For example, say there’s a hypothetical ten year deal with an opt out three years in. Even if Player X is playing well three years in, you’d be happy to let him walk rather than commit to the final seven years when you’d be crazy to not expect a significant decline. In that instance, both parties win: the player gets a bigger deal somewhere and the team avoids the portion of the contract it would not have liked. Perhaps this is inapplicable to Teix.

OTOH, there is a very reasonable argument against Teixeira.  Basically, as good as he is, he is not a truly elite player in the class of A-Rod, Pujols, Manny (last contract, not next one), etc.  Viewed in this way, an overpay for Teixeira is every bit as bad as an overpay for Burnett or Lowe.  If you think that Teixeira is a truly elite hitter and worth an overpay, then you’re doing some “projecting” of your own, IMHO.

Rumors of Yanks offering Burnet 5 years at 75 or 80 mil.

If you think that Teixeira is a truly elite hitter and worth an overpay, then you’re doing some “projecting” of your own

Marcel projects him at 0.380 WOBA only behind 7 players in the majors. I think he is an ELITE HITTER don’t you? Adding to his total value that he is one of the best defensive 1st baseman, then you have a top 15 player in the majors, I think that makes him an ELITE PLAYER.

If you think that Teixeira is a truly elite hitter and worth an overpay, then you’re doing some “projecting” of your own, IMHO.

i disagree.

unless there are only 4-5 elite hitters in all of baseball, Teixeira is elite.

A-Rod, Pujols, and Manny are three of the greatest hitters in the history of the game.  it isn’t really fair to hold Teixeira to this standard.

unless we are saying that only the very inner-circle of the HOF passes that definition. 

his last 5 seasons of OPS+: 131, 144, 126, 150, 151

that’s a TOUGH definition of “elite” if he doesn’t qualify.

Marcel projects Teixeira to be a .386 WOBA player in 2009.  That’s 11th best in the league.

Teixeira other projected numbers from Marcel:  .292   .387   .522   .909

27HR   97 RBI   76BB   101K.

Bill James has him projected as .299 .397 .559 .956.  Don’t think ZIPS or CHONE projections are available yet. 

Is that a truly elite player?  I think there’s a debate there.

Teixeira is an excellent player who does a lot of things well.  But his bat is not on the Pujols, ARod, Ramirez level.  And his defense is not on the Pujols level either at first base.

That’s not an argument for the yankees not to sign him.  The most compelling reason for that move is the particular needs the yankees have and the lack of position players in the system.  But those factors are extrinsic to Teixweira as a player. 

Again, not a reason to pass on Tex but it wouldn’t surprise me if Tex signed for a big money deal with the yankees and became a relative “disappointment” similar to the way Beltran is derided by Mets fans.

I’ve had many thoughts of Kevin Brown and Jarret Wright today.

it isn’t really fair to hold Teixeira to this standard.

But is it wise to pay him as though he meets this standard?  Because that’s what you’d be doing and that’s what the “it’s OK to overpay for the truly great player” argument comes down to (ie—it implicitly assumes that there’s no meaningful difference between a Mark Teixeira and a Manny Ramirez).

Teixeira is not as good a hitter as Giambi was when the Yankees signed him, but lots of people who think the Giambi contract was terrible also seem to think that we should throw even bigger gobs of cash at Teixeira.  All because he’s two years younger?  Or because he happens to be hitting free agency in a year when there aren’t many other top flight hitters to choose among?

The stats and projections you guys are citing show that Teixeira is a good bet to be one of the top hitters in MLB in 2009, and probably 2010 as well.  But if you’re going to hand out a HOFer contract, there ought to be an argument that the guy’s a good bet to be a HOFer.  So yes, it is and should be a “TOUGH definition.”

Dustin Pedroia is your 2008 AL MVP. A snarky one-liner escapes me at the moment.

.292 .387 .522 .909

27HR 97 RBI 76BB 101K.

Is .292/.387/.522/.909 so different from the “elite levels” of A-Rod’s .289/.386/.545/.931? Counting stats tend to be low on these projections too. Marcels has Howard leading the majors next year with only 40 hrs, and a 4-way tie between A-Rod, Braun, Fielder, and Dunn for second, at 32.

Again, not a reason to pass on Tex but it wouldn’t surprise me if Tex signed for a big money deal with the yankees and became a relative “disappointment” similar to the way Beltran is derided by Mets fans.

Seeing how Beltran is one of the most underrated players in the game, I’d be thrilled if Tex were as “disappointing” as Beltran has been for the Mets.

Teixeira is not as good a hitter as Giambi was when the Yankees signed him, but lots of people who think the Giambi contract was terrible also seem to think that we should throw even bigger gobs of cash at Teixeira.  All because he’s two years younger?

Because he is a much better defender and seems to be more durable than Giambi. Also you have to realize that we want him so much because Abreu is going to leave the team so does Giambi and we need a bat to compensate the lineup.

Trying to sign Teixera and Sabathia are the two no brainer moves of the offseason. Maybe we can’t, but at least I want Cashman to “show some love to them” before trying to sign Burnett/Lowe and Dunn.

And was the Giambi contract even that bad? In his Yankee tenure, he put up the following OPS+:
172, 148, 90, 161, 148, 108, 128

His value took big hits in 2004 and in 2007, when he missed half of each season, but in the other five, he raked. This obviously doesn’t account for defense, but even accounting for that, wasn’t this still a pretty good deal overall?

“Is .292/.387/.522/.909 so different from the “elite levels” of A-Rod’s .289/.386/.545/.931?”

Yes it is.  A 4-5% difference in production is a significant difference at the right skewed level of production.  This is particularly true because their body of work over their careers is very different and there is no question that ARod is on an entirely different level (Marcel projections only take into account the past three years of data).

The biggest difference between ARod and a player like Tex is something not necessarily seen in the mean statistics of projections.  If ARod put up an 1.050 OPS next year it wouldn’t be all that surprising.  Teixeira has never come close to that kind of production.  He’s never had a 1.000 OPS season in his career.

There’s simply no way Teixeira is the same kind of hitter that Alex is.  Alex has a career OPS+ of 147.  Tex - 134.  Jason Bay’s career OPS+ is 131.

Tex isn’t on that level.  Again - that’s not to say the yankees shoudln’t sign him. 

You rarely ever hear Lance Berkman described of as an elite player.  Go look at his career production - much better than Tex’s. And Berkman is also a good fielder.  By PMR he was 16 runs better than a league average 1b.  Tex was 15 runs better by PMR.

Again - it all depends on what you think elite is and how many players at any give time are truly elite talents.  When I think of elite players I think of guys who have a very good chance to make it to the hall of fame.  That kind of talent.

Or because he happens to be hitting free agency in a year when there aren’t many other top flight hitters to choose among?

more like:  Or because he happens to be hitting free agency in an era when fewer and fewer top flight hitters become free agents before they turn 30.

Also you have to realize that we want him so much because Abreu is going to leave the team so does Giambi and we need a bat to compensate the lineup.

Again, you’re arguing short-term exigencies to justify a long-term commitment.  And you’re arguing team-specific needs to justify a contract of a magnitude that should only be contemplated if it can be justified in a vaccuum.  There is no team that wouldn’t find a place for Pujols if he suddenly fell into their lap.  But if the Yankees had, say Justin Morneau, nobody here would be clamoring for Teixeira.  I don’t know how I can make it any clearer than that.

And finally, I’m just saying that this is an argument against Teixeira and that I find it has some merit.  I’m not saying that he’s a bum or that I wouldn’t sign the guy.

at least I want Cashman to “show some love to them” before trying to sign Burnett/Lowe and Dunn.

First of all, Cashman has already shown Sabathia $140M worth of love.  But one other thing in response to this point specifically—I don’t think that Cashman can completely control the order in which the dominoes will fall.  Boras almost certainly wants to drag the marketing of Teixeira out at least until Christmas.  There’s probably going to be plenty of time to show him some love later.  But even though other guys might be your second or third choice, you have to deal with the reality that they might not be waiting around when the higher choices have fallen into place (or fallen through).

“And was the Giambi contract even that bad? In his Yankee tenure, he put up the following OPS+:
172, 148, 90, 161, 148, 108, 128 “

Looking at a mean statistic for a player who missed significant time over the course of a contract and was forced to move to DH far earlier than anticipated when he was signed is misleading.

In many ways, counting stats are more important when looking at Giambi’s value than his rate stats.  This is particularly true becasue Giambi wasn’t a very good in context run producer (his OPS+ of 2008 inflates his value - he just didn’t produce nearly as many runs as he should have given his awful hitting in run producing situations).

On top of the injuries a big reason why Giambi turned out to be a poor value was that he was reduced to the DH role far faster than was anticipated when he signed.  That’s a big hit in how he fit into the team and how resources had to be allocated in future years.

And in many ways Giambi’s contrace incurred large opportunity costs on the yankees.  One of the major reasons why they didn’t sign Beltran was because Giambi’s contract was a huge albatross around their necks.

And was the Giambi contract even that bad?

Personally, I think it turned out rather well.  But like I said, there are those who hated the Giambi deal but are now balls to the wall for Teixeira.  Not necessarily anyone here, but they’re out there.

AL MVP voting

As Bertie Wooster might say: the mind boggles.

I’ve had many thoughts of Kevin Brown and Jarret Wright today.

if the Yankees signed Kevin Brown after his age 31 season for 5 years it would have been one of the greatest contracts in team history.

Wright was a bad contract because Wright was a bad pitcher.  Burnett is a good pitcher.

This back-and-forth shows why relying on free agency sucks.  Yeah, Teix is good, but he’s not going to be worth the money he’ll get, especially towards the back end of the contract.  CC is a must-have?  It seems like it now, but if his arm is shot by the end of 2010, then his contract won’t seem so great.

I’d love for the Yanks to get to a place where they can forego the free agency Flavor of the Month, whether it be a player like CC or Teix.  I’d love for the Yanks to dip into free agency just to plug a hole here or there.

Burnett is a good pitcher

5/80 good?

Wright was a bad contract because Wright was a bad pitcher.  Burnett is a good pitcher.

I bet every single one of us here would jump at signing Burnett (or Lowe for that matter) to Wright’s contract.

Neither Brown (too good) nor Wright (too bad) is a good comp for Burnett. Pavano is actually closer, though he’s no match for Burnett in either stats or scouting.

MC, I thought for a second you had written something like, “I bet every single one of us here would jump at signing Wright’s contract.”

5/80 good?

Let’s see, carry the one…  uhhh, nope.  Fortunately, we don’t yet have any reason to think that’s accurate.  So I’m willing to wait another day or so before I let it get me all depressed.

Is Ryan Dempster 4/$52 good?

I think this might be why Cashman feels like he has to get the pitching first.  The longer you wait, the more you will pay and the less you will get.

MC, I thought for a second you had written something like, “I bet every single one of us here would jump at signing Wright’s contract.”

Well, yeah, that too.

Andy’s asking for $16, supposedly.  I’d rather go with Hughes (140) plus IPK et al (70), or even give Pavano a short-term deal.

I can’t see CC as a flavor of the month.  He’s a great pitcher, and probably less of a risk than practically any other pitcher worth having.  Ditto Tex at a sane contract length.

5/80 good?

maybe not, but SG thinks he’s $60-75M/5 good:

http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/direct/ny_post_aj_decision_coming_asap

$80M/5 is not completely off the rails crazy, at least according to the type of analysis that all of us come here for.

also, aren’t we starting to get into that magic area when every win is worth incrementally more?

for example, according to SG, the team as is, is at 88 wins.

with CC, he says they are around 93 wins.

i would guess that every win above 93 wins is worth a LOT of money to the Yankees.

which probably argues for signing Teixeira instead of Burnett, but i am just saying there may be an argument to slightly overpay for Burnett.

Good point, Yup.

The super moral, ethical Andy Petitte would not be happy with a pay cut to 12 million dollars after last years performance.  Times must be tough for him.

if nothing else, this may explain why Pettitte hasn’t been signed yet.  everyone, myself included, was assuming this was a lock at $10-12M.

for $16M, maybe they should look elsewhere.

Dustin Pedroia is your 2008 AL MVP. A snarky one-liner escapes me at the moment.

Speak for yourself. I disown the AL.

Let’s put it this way: in 2006 Alex Rodriguez put up a 134 OPS+ and was universally mocked and nearly driven out of town.  Two years later, Dustin Pedroia produces a 122 OPS+ and wins the MVP.

Just a reminder about Teixeira…

SG concluded with his analysis that 7 years/160 million (approximately $23/year) would be fair value for Teixeira, which doesn’t sound far from what it would take to sign him in the real world.  That’s an effort at an “objective” valuation.  And I’d argue that the kind of stuff that SG doesn’t measure only adds to Teixeira’s value in just about every case.  For example:  he’s a switch hitter, he’s a good citizen, he’s got a good health record, he’s consistent, the Yankees lack position players in the minors, first base has been a position of need, he has no objections to playing on the East Coast, hitters are safer bets than pitchers… so to me, there are some “intangibles” that could justify some amount of overpayment.

The only negative seems to be that some people don’t consider him elite by a very strict definition of the term that seems to overemphasize the arbitrary standard of the 1.000 OPS.

I think Beltran is a good analogy:  a star who quietly earns his pay every year based on an a consistently superior all-around game.

Teixeira would be at the top of my free agent list.

Mauer was criminally underrated in this year AL MVP voting.

Mauer wasn’t scrappy enough to win the MVP.

“SG concluded with his analysis that 7 years/160 million (approximately $23/year) would be fair value for Teixeira, which doesn’t sound far from what it would take to sign him in the real world.  That’s an effort at an “objective” valuation.”

Using marginal wins to value a contract is one way to assess a player’s worth and there’s nothing wrong with how SG came to that conclusion.

But as a method marginal win ROI has real limitation.

For instance, Dave Cameron did a piece on valuing AJ Burnett using a similar method to what SG did.  Based on Marcel projections Cameron concluded Burnett was a 3.3 WAR pitcher.  And here was his conclusion:

“3.3 wins * 5.5 million per win = $18.15 million in projected 2009 value. We again factor in a 10% discount rate to make up for the fact that he’s going to get a long term deal, and that gives us an annual average value of $16.4 million. Given Burnett’s history, it’s unlikely he’ll get more than four or five years. That puts his projected contract at 4 years/$66 million or 5 years/$82 million.

Those numbers match up fairly well with what the rumors have pegged his price tag at. It seems unlikely that Burnett will be either a huge bargain or a big albatross this winter.”

If you want to go soley by the objective analysis its as reasonable to sign Burnett to a 5yr/ $80M contract as it is to sign tex for 7/160.

But intuitively few people would agree with that.  And much of that has to do with pricing players through marginal wins.  There’s real insight gained from that method.  But also limitations.

Here’s the link for that Cameron piece on Burnett:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-values-aj-burnett

SG concluded with his analysis that 7 years/160 million (approximately $23/year) would be fair value for Teixeira, which doesn’t sound far from what it would take to sign him in the real world

Well, that’s the question, isn’t it?  It remains to be seen.  AFAIK, Boras is still talking about ten years.  Alfonso Soriano got 8/$136M two years ago, when he was two years older than Teixeira is now, and not nearly as good a hitter.

The only negative seems to be that some people don’t consider him elite by a very strict definition of the term that seems to overemphasize the arbitrary standard of the 1.000 OPS.

This misses the far more important half of the argument against signing Teixeira— the part about it being inevitable that signing him will require a substantial overpay.  I was not trying to argue against signing him to a “fair” contract, and I would certainly not argue against signing him if he could somehow be had on a significantly shorter deal.  My argument is that 7/160 ain’t gonna cut it, and 8/200 ain’t gonna be worth it.

Now, if it turns out that I’m wrong about what it will take to land Teixeira, then so be it.  But a few things come to mind:

1) Boras
2) He’s the best available hitter by far
3) Boras
4) He’s only 28
5) Boras
6) Everything else that has been posted here about how good he is
7) Boras

And by the way, did I mention his agent?

“he’s a switch hitter”

Isn’t this double-counting?  His OPS+ is what it is in part because he has no l/r split.  I might prefer a leftie with a big split so one could maximize his value by platooning him with say Miranda.

Um, Miranda is a lefty too.

Oops, well, pick a righty then.

I have the sense that the Yankees saw a lot of LHP last year - is that correct?  Is it sustainable if so?

If you want to go solely by the objective analysis its as reasonable to sign Burnett to a 5yr/ $80M contract as it is to sign tex for 7/160.

Exactly.  So to decide what to do, you have to look at your individual situation.  If the Yankees don’t get Sabathia, they probably would like Burnett at 5/80.  If the Yankees get Sabathia, they need to start worrying about total payroll and how much space they have in their rotation.  So you actually need to start comparing the cost/value of groups of players, like Burnett,first base Swisher,extra playing time for Melky/Gardner vs Teixeira,outfield Swisher,rotation filler (which might mean Pettitte). and so forth.  There are also long term considerations, like rising prospects.

Unless the Yankees decide to make total cost a big issue, I think Teixeira’s side would win (always assuming that Teixeira doesn’t actually get something ridiculous).

“The only negative seems to be that some people don’t consider him elite by a very strict definition of the term that seems to overemphasize the arbitrary standard of the 1.000 OPS. “

Ok forget the arbitrary standard of a 1.000 OPS season.

Let’s take a look at Teixeira in the context of his value over replacement.

Over the past 4 years Tex has put up a VORP of 62/ 37/ 53/ 65.  That’s an average of 54.

Perhaps an average VORP of 54 is an elite player and warrants a huge long term contract.  Evaluating cut offs for what makes palyers “great” or hall of fame worthy or whatever always entails drawing subjective cut offs of performance of some type.

But to me Tex’s performance compared to other 1b is very, very good but not truly elite - both in terms of its mean levels and its upper range.  To me that seems very debatable when you consider how other players who are clearly elite performers do year in and out.

But to me Tex’s performance compared to other 1b is very, very good but not truly elite - both in terms of its mean levels and its upper range.

but this is where i disagree, b/c i would have to remove Pujols from the group.  he isn’t human, he is an alien sent from another planet where they play baseball 46 hours/day 512 days/year.  he is an outlier.

now, compare Teixeira to the group of human 1Bman.  what do you have?  he’s 1st or 2nd out of 29?  isn’t that elite?  it’s pretty much Teixeira and Berkman.  Teixeira is better than Morneau, Fielder, Howard, Youkilis, Pena, etc.

Think I’d take Miguel Cabrera over Teix.  And he’s not that much better than Howard, is he?

Don’t mean to pick on you MC, but I see you have taken an anti-Teixiera stance given what he’ll likely require and I just wanted to make some points because I think that signing Teixiera, even at a little more than he is worth, is something that they need to do.

One thing I consistently see you missing here is the combined contribution of offense and defense. Let’s look at some contracts:

-Rodriguez, 10 years/$250M, entering his age 25 season
-Ramirez, 9 years/$180M, entering his age 29 season
-Pujols, 7 years/$111M (I’m including his ridiculously cheap $16M option), entering his age 24 season

Pujol’s contract is a steal and it’s a little different since it wasn’t as a free agent. Rodriguez’s contract came when he was likely the best defensive SS and the best hitter in the AL. Manny was right there with Rodriguez as one of the top hitters in the AL, but doesn’t compare defensively.

It’s impossible to know if ARod was worth what he got because he moved to 3B and opted out in 2007, but I’ll bet that, offense + defense, Teixeira’s projection for 7-8 years matches what Manny Ramirez did for 7-8 years. I like Manny’s contract as a good bench mark. Teixiera is also entering his age 29 season.

My argument is that 7/160 ain’t gonna cut it, and 8/200 ain’t gonna be worth it.

Right - but what is worth it, how close is that number (X years/$Y) to what they would be willing to do, and does it make sense to bridge the gap? They shouldn’t be pennywise and pound foolish.

Lowe and Burnett will cost more per season, but for half as many seasons.

First, it’s going to be Lowe or Burnett. 99% of the time, Steve Lombardi is an idiot, but he makes a good point today. Unless Cashman has some Yoda-esque plan, there’s almost no chance that that the rotation in 2009 is Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe, Wang, and Chamberlain, because those 5 will be around for a good while, leaving guys like Hughes, Kennedy, Brackman, Bleich and Betances nowhere to go. Now, maybe they like buying pitchers instead of position players and they plan on switching these prospects out for Joey Votto’s, Ryan Martin’s, etc., but it would be contrary to everything they’ve been going for the past few drafts.

So, the Yankees allegedly offered Burnett 5 years/$80M, even though they have a farm system full of high- and mid-ceiling pitching prospects. They’re willing to spend $80M on Burnett (who was a ton of warts), but they are shying away from giving a borderline elite player who fills a position they need to fill (a middle of the order bat and a top 5 RSAA defender) because, while he’s fair at 7 years/$160M, probably won’t be fair at 8 years/~$180-190M ? That just doesn’t make sense to me.

My assumption is that Ramirez’s contract is a decent bench mark for Teixiera. If you think Teixiera is prime to fall flat on his face, say, because he’s a 1B or of a decreasing X rate or something, then that’s one argument. I don’t like Burnett because I see Pavano all over again. I don’t see the same with Teixiera.

In the end, who really knows. Maybe once Holliday went to Oakland, they decided they’d rather have him next year. Holliday’s availability raises another good point. The days of these type of guys being available before age 30 are going to be completely over soon.  So added $10M-$12M as a premium to get one of those guys might be a reality of the current market. We’re not going to get a shot at any Pujols or Utley types until they are a few years onto the wrong side of 30.

Sorry for the long post, I’ve been away all day.

“Think I’d take Miguel Cabrera over Teix. “

Can’t agree with that. Cabrera younger, but you have to worry about that guy’s body—he doesn’t stay in shape. Teix is a workaholic by all accounts. Plus Teix is really strong defensively, Cabrera is horrible. His RZR is 80 points lower than Teix and he has lost 100 points on OPS over the last two years as he has put on weight. Not to mention, Teix out OPS’d him by 200 pts. It’s not even close, really.

offense + defense, i’d take Teixeira over Howard without much hesitation. 

Cabrera’s pretty good, i admit i forgot he is a full-time 1Bman now.

-Ramirez, 9 years/$180M, entering his age 29 season

Just checked this, and Manny actually got 8 years/$160M with two $20M options and a $16M signing bonus. So more like 8 years/$176M, and I think if he hadn’t made a stink with the Red Sox, his option likely would have been exercised, putting him at 9 years/$196M.

The Yankees have close to $90 million coming off the books, and Cashman has a green light to spend. He knows he has a mandate for the Yankees to be dominant in 2009.

I agree that Teixeira seems like a no-brainer based on publicly available info. It would be tragic if he went to Boston. I suspect Cashman has a better feel for the market for Sabathia. Boras will drag it out, there is plenty of time for counter offers.

Pettitte seems like a no brainer too, but there must be more to that story than we know. Maybe he is not willing to take a pay cut? Maybe they already have a deal but they are keeping it hush, and Lowe and Bunett are a smokescreen?  It is never good to telegraph your moves. Whatever it is, Cashman knows things that we don’t. I do know I will be disappointed if Nick Swisher is the starting 1B in 2009.

The Yankees have close to $90 million coming off the books

You’re forgetting to add in the buy outs for Giambi and Pavano and the arbitration raises for a few guys. I guess *thankfully* Wang missed half the year, so that will save them some. There’s also some speculation that they want the payroll in the $180M range, so it’s probably going to be more like $50M or so.

“3.3 wins * 5.5 million per win = $18.15 million in projected 2009 value. We again factor in a 10% discount rate to make up for the fact that he’s going to get a long term deal, and that gives us an annual average value of $16.4 million. Given Burnett’s history, it’s unlikely he’ll get more than four or five years. That puts his projected contract at 4 years/$66 million or 5 years/$82 million.

Looks like Cameron is completely ignoring decline/attrition, which makes no sense.

Think I’d take Miguel Cabrera over Teix.

Availability is an issue here though.

And he’s not that much better than Howard, is he?

Their offensive projection is very similar once you adjust for league and park, but there’s very likely (conservatively) at least a 10 run defensive difference.  And again, Teixeira is available, Howard probably isn’t.

spealing of Cabrera, maybe we should be looking at Cabrera’s contract as a benchmark?

8 years, $152M.  but he wasn’t a true free agent, so it actually looks a lot like Manny’s contract.  figure 8/$170M on the open market?

Cabrera was a good call.

I feel like everyone is talking about the Yank’s lack of interest in Teix like they actually believe what Cashman is saying. The truth is, I think the Yanks KNOW that to compete in 2009 they need some pitchers, so they are going all in to blow people away, grab what they can and make sure that the rotation is better than it was last year. But with Teix, they know that Boras will drag this out forever and they still might not get him, so they are going to lay off him for a while and see what they have to spend after they have cleared up the pitching.

When he finally is ready to make a decisions in 3 months the Yanks can always look at the other options left available and decide if they want to beat the other teams’ offers. But if they wait till then on the pitchers they know that they will all be gone.

Finally, if the Yanks sign Sab, Burnett and Lowe, then they can free up prospects to trade for a bat…or not. But if they don’t sign some pitching now, then they might have to use those kids to trade for a Peavey or something like that, so then they might go all in on Teixera because they won’t have kids left to trade for a bat. But Teix will likely still be around drumming up offers at that time anyhow, so they can decide on that then.

8 years, $152M.  but he wasn’t a true free agent, so it actually looks a lot like Manny’s contract.  figure 8/$170M on the open market?

Well, Cabrera is younger, but can’t even hack it defensively at 1B, so maybe the age and the bad defense offset.

I feel like everyone is talking about the Yank’s lack of interest in Teix like they actually believe what Cashman is saying

I’d say the level of understanding that everything we say here has no impact on what actually happens is very high.

That doesn’t mean it’s not fun to argue about what makes sense and what doesn’t and to speculate on what they might or might not do.

Not to mention, Teix out OPS’d him by 200 pts. It’s not even close, really.

The 200 points is if you just count Teixeira’s 54 games with Anaheim. Over the entire season, his OPS was .962, compared to Cabrera’s .886. Tex still clearly out-hit Cabrera this year, but I wouldn’t say Tex is the superior hitter. Cabrera had 3 consecutive seasons of a 150 OPS+ in his age 22-24 seasons, which I give more weight than his 130 this season. Plus, he’ll only be 26 in April. This isn’t to say that Tex is totally outclassed, as he’s put up a 150 and 151 OPS+ in the past 2 seasons, but Cabrera has more offensive upside given his age. Cabrera’s weight/conditioning is a concern, though, and defensively, Tex is waaaay ahead. Overall , I’d say it’s pretty close between the two.

I feel like everyone is talking about the Yank’s lack of interest in Teix like they actually believe what Cashman is saying

come on, the Yankee blogosphere EXPLODED today because George King, GEORGE KING, threw out $80M/5 for Burnett that has absolutely no basis in reality.

until Cashman is spotted walking Teixeira’s dog AND pooping scooping, we are going to freak out about it.

i have no idea what they will do, but IF they do sign Teixeira, that Swisher trade is going to look incredible.

i have no idea what they will do, but IF they do sign Teixeira, that Swisher trade is going to look incredible.

Thats another thing that MC isn’t realizing, I think. With the addition of Swisher (at basiclly no cost), you can now aggressively try to trade any one of Swisher, Nady, Damon or Matsui. We can debate on the merits of each, but the point is Cashman could then turn something he has too many of into something he doesn’t have enough of, which would make the team even stronger, theoretically.