If Burnett stays reasonably healthy and dominates Boston and the Rays the way he did last year, no one will complain.

By the way, Hughes’ 91 mph fastball must have seemed like a soft toss after facing Burnett.  How the heck did that guy strike out four guys with such a wimpy heater?

Burnett is a freak of nature and i supported signing him from the end of the season.  the contract was a year longer than anyone would have liked, but they were bidding against the Braves and the runner-up was getting Lowe.  i’d rather have Burnett. 

i think his injury history is a little overblown as most of his missed time is from one injury, the bad elbow he had TJS on in 2003.  he missed most of 2003, half of 2004 and then a bit of time in 2006 when a piece of scar tissue from the TJS broke off.

aside from that, he’s had some other smaller injuries here and there, but that is really the bulk of what his reputation is based on.  since he’s already had his elbow repaired, i don’t really consider it a bigger risk than any other pitcher’s elbow.  possibly less of a risk, since a TJS repaired elbow can come back stronger than before the surgery. 

i’m pretty psyched for this guy.

By the way, Hughes’ 91 mph fastball must have seemed like a soft toss after facing Burnett.

Was it really 91 yesterday, or are you just being sarcastic?  I’m curious, because I KNOW Phil can throw 94-95.  I think at 90-92 Phil is a #2, maybe a #1 at his peak.  At 92-94 - occasionally higher - I think he’s a #1, at his peak of 3-5 years a Cy Young contender.  And that’s w/ the change-up he has now, improving that at all would make him a consistent #1 with the lesser-fastball, and extend his peak to 8-10 years with the greater one.

i’d rather have Burnett.

Yeah, I was initially more “for Lowe” and against Burnett.  But I also had thought that the difference in their contracts would have been greater.  Burnett got a little less than I thought he would, and Lowe a little more (especially getting an extra year).  That narrowed the gap that I’ll go with the upside over the certainty.

yeah, i could definitely see the argument if Lowe only got 3 years.  but at 4 years for very similar money, i would take Burnett. 

plus, once Sheets was gone as a viable alternative, it made more sense as well.

the Mets really should have signed Lowe instead of Perez.  that “certainty” is worth so much to a team that has been right on the brink the last 2 years.

another thing i found interesting was how many of the Yankee PLAYERS lobbied Cashman to sign Burnett.

i know that’s generally not a good way to make decisions, but if you want a scouting report on a pitcher, who would know better than a bunch of guys who stood in the box against him about 30 times each over the last 3 years?

Damon and Jeter practically begged Cashman to sign him. 

just a fun little anecdote, but i thought it was interesting.

Damon and Jeter practically begged Cashman to sign him.

I do think it’s a piece of the puzzle.  Just like scouting and stats, you don’t want to completely ignore one, but you want to give a weight to each.  Talking to the players gives you a piece of information; maybe you only give it a weight of 5 (and maybe scouting is 35 and stats is 50, for example), but it’s certainly useful.

Just saw this update on Pete Abe’s blog:

Andrew Brackman was optioned to Single-A Charleston. RHPs J.B. Cox, George Kontos and Kanekoa Texeira were reassigned to the minor-league camp.

I actually thought they would have assigned Brackman to Tampa instead, just for geography if nothing else.  The only other thing is I thought they may have kept Cox in the major-league camp a little while longer.  But really no surprises here.

i was also surprised about that.

i assumed Brackman would start in Tampa.  i guess they could start him in Charleston and promote him quickly if he is dominating.

the contract was a year longer than anyone would have liked, but they were bidding against the Braves and the runner-up was getting Lowe.  i’d rather have Burnett.

Yup.  I’m much happier with the way things worked themselves out than with what could have been.

Burnett is also likely to have more success with the Yankees than Lowe relative to their expectation. Burnett’s high K rates will really take the pressure off the defense.

Burnett’s IPs over the last 5 seasons is pretty much the same as Josh Beckett’s, the difference being about 10 IP/season more for Beckett.  Statistically, these are two very similar pitchers, yet Burnett has been stereotyped as an injury-prone underachiever to a far greater extent than Beckett has.

Burnett is a freak of nature and i supported signing him from the end of the season.  the contract was a year longer than anyone would have liked, but they were bidding against the Braves and the runner-up was getting Lowe.  i’d rather have Burnett.

I agree.  I had him projected as the second best available starting pitcher.  Yeah, he’s not a good bet health-wise, especially not over five years, but he will be good when he pitches.  Taking off my sabermetrics hat and ignoring run values and wins above replacement and all that, it’ll just be fun to watch him throwing 95+ heat and nasty deuces.

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

Brackman being assigned to Charleston doesn’t mean very much on March 9th. It’s just for the minor league ST work groups. If he excels for the next month, he still may very well break camp with the Tampa Yanks.

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

Sure.  But its not likely.  I think Cash is committed to letting Hughes regain some momentum in the minors before bringing him up.

i guess they could start him in Charleston and promote him quickly if he is dominating.

I was more thinking they would want him closer to the staff in Tampa, since guys like Contreras will likely be there for extended ST through April at least.  Made sense since he’s still working his way back from TJS.  W/o knowing how the pitching staffs at each level will set up, I guess they felt they’d have to leave somebody else in Charleston they didn’t want to.  As you say, if he pitches well enough he won’t be in Charleston for long.

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

No.

Burnett is also likely to have more success with the Yankees than Lowe relative to their expectation. Burnett’s high K rates will really take the pressure off the defense.

Cody Ransom is smiling.

Sure.  But its not likely.  I think Cash is committed to letting Hughes regain some momentum in the minors before bringing him up.

What’s the logical progression of the long term rotation? Chamberlain builds up enough innings to take Petitte’s 200 IP in 2010, with Hughes moving into Chamberlain’s spot? (I haven’t looked at Hughes innings projection, he may be in a similar workload progression to Chamberlain.) When does Wang hit FA?

When does Wang hit FA?

after 2011.

Brackman being assigned to Charleston doesn’t mean very much on March 9th. It’s just for the minor league ST work groups. If he excels for the next month, he still may very well break camp with the Tampa Yanks.

thanks for clarifying.  i wasn’t aware how this worked in ST.

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

barring injury, i don’t see how.

I was wondering about whether Joba continuing to struggle in ST plus his innings limit might end up making a reshuffle sensible.  Seems very unlikely though.

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

I send the following to a friend last week as a sarcastic joke about the CF job…

So since Brian Cashman is all for increased competition to foster growth does that mean if Hughes continues to pitch well and Joba continues to struggle that Hughes will start 2009 in the rotation and Joba will start 2009 in AAA?

Is there a reasonable scenario barring injury in which Hughes pitches his way into the 5th spot in ST?

I don’t see one, but it’s a pretty safe bet that injuries will let him get a fair amount of time in.  I’m building my team depth charts for my projections, and I’m assuming the following right now:

Sabathia: 32
Burnett: 28
Wang: 27
Pettitte: 26
Joba: 22
Hughes: 10
IPK: 9
Aceves: 8

It’s way too soon to worry about Joba right now, but I do think it’s feasible that if he is not physically right by the end of ST and Hughes is sharp they swap the two out.

Burnett pitches more than Wang?  That just reflects expected tRA or whatever?

according to Abraham, the surgery went swimmingly and the Dr. is very bullish on Alex’s health this season.

this might just work out ok.

Burnett pitches more than Wang?  That just reflects expected tRA or whatever?

Nah, it’s based on their projected innings, although since Wang’s injury last year was not arm related, his projected innings are probably low.  I could flip them, but if Burnett’s a 3.80 ERA guy and Wang is a 4.20 ERA (rough average of their projections off the top of my head) you’re talking about a difference of 0.4 runs per 9 innings, which isn’t really enough to skew the team projections all that much over a handful of starts going to one or the other.

In general, I try to be very conservative in regards to setting playing time when building the team rosters and depth charts for my simulations because team depth ends up being a very important factor for most teams in most seasons.

What’s the logical progression of the long term rotation? Chamberlain builds up enough innings to take Petitte’s 200 IP in 2010, with Hughes moving into Chamberlain’s spot?

I think that’s it exactly.  Hughes is on a similar path to Joba, as far as innings.  Probably not exact, but close.  If Wang gets hurt again or Chamberlain falters, or none of the kids (Hughes, IPK, others) step up Pettitte may come back again.  But I imagine the plan is as you said.  And then depending on how others are doing in the system, you may even see a Wang trade somewhere in the next couple of years.

When you do the starter projections, can you add a little bit about this year’s depth compared to last year?

Last year, it felt pretty good to have pretty much the similar(?) 6-8. At least with IPK and Hughes. But that kinda didn’t go as planned. You think they did enough for more hope. (Actually, I kinda remember there were also a lot of so so in the starters depth too, but can’t recall the specifics).

Gritty, gutty Brett Gardner has done it again. He just lined a two-run homer over the wall in right. It was his third shot of spring training.

Just proof that Gardner actually CAN hit the ball over the fences.  I think he has a shot at a little more power than he’s often given credit for.  Not 20+ HR or anything, but maybe 8-10.  RF is 330 down the line at PNC Field (SWB home park), and though I can’t definitively state how many warning-track flies Gardner had to right there, he’ll probably get a few “cheap” HR, plus I think he may get 1 or 2 inside-the-park jobs to LCF.

Of course, he’s going to have to put the ball in play enough to take advantage of that…

Of course, if Gardner keeps hitting bombs then he won’t qualify as gritty and gutty anymore.

And speaking of change-ups, something has really clicked for my son all of sudden, and he’s throwing a Bugs Bunny ball with the exact same arm speed and release action as his fastball.  And good change-up is a devastating pitch at the JV level.  Now he’s not very likely to ever have a major league fastball, but this should be a fun season.

That’s really cool, MC.  My project to convince my sons that they’re lefties has failed, and now all I have to look forward to is not changing diapers some day.

You still have time to stick a catcher’s mitt in their hand.  Probably almost as good as being a lefty pitcher.

Wait a second, aren’t the rilkekinder like 1 and 3 or something?  I wouldn’t give up yet.  In my own limited coaching experience, I’ve had two different guys who decided to start throwing lefthanded at age 11.  Amazingly, they both pulled it off.  One of them throws exclusively lefty now, although he doesn’t have enough control to pitch even at the Babe Ruth League level.  Then again, he never had much control as a righthanded little leaguer either.  The other kid did it so he could continue playing through a non-throwing injury to his right arm.  He’s back to being much stronger throwing righty, but he’s still working out as a lefty in the hopes of being able to switch-pitch some day.

Hey MC, from the previous thread—you said MIL had ruined Hall’s stroke by making him play CF.  How so?

Of course, if Gardner keeps hitting bombs then he won’t qualify as gritty and gutty anymore.

I had thought as long as he was under 10 he’d still be gritty.  But you’re right, the Yankees’ coaches need to monitor this and judiciously bunt/throw up the stop sign.

And good change-up is a devastating pitch at the JV level.

When I was in Little League, he had a guy named Mike Terhune who was a pitcher/shortstop.  Unfortunately not on my team.  For LL, he threw hard; I’d say at least in the 60’s, which when most of the pitchers were in the 40’s (we had those baseballs were you held down the button after all!) was fast.  He also had one of those lollipop changes that buckled your knees, esp. since you started your swing before he began the pitching motion.  I had the only RBI off of him for our team…groundout to first with a runner on 3rd in a game we were down 14-0.  Yey me!

My project to convince my sons that they’re lefties has failed

My son is lefty; not as much fun as you may think!  I can’t get him cheap 10$ gloves at k-mart for t-ball, I need to get 30$ gloves at Dick’s.  Now he wants to play guitar; do you know how hard it is to find a 3/4 size left-handed guitar?

And anyway, not having to change diapers anymore is a pretty huge deal in its own right.

I had thought as long as he was under 10 he’d still be gritty.  But you’re right, the Yankees’ coaches need to monitor this and judiciously bunt/throw up the stop sign.

Throwing up the stop sign is not being aggressive or putting pressure on the defense, and as such, is not gritty.

i hope Gardner shoves it in my (and any other doubter’s) face all season long.  i’d much rather have an exciting young CFer than win an internet debate.

that said, in the last 2 weeks, Gardner has hit 1/3 of the HRs he has hit in his first 1700 PA’s in the minors.  and i’d be surprised if a few of those weren’t inside the parkers. 

there is a reason we aren’t “giving him credit” for his power.  he hasn’t shown too much of it up to this point.

if he’s learning to turn on certain pitches and pull them down the line for HRs, that would be awesome.  it could also mean that Kevin Long knows what he is doing.

if he can just show that he CAN hit a major league fastball over the fence, it will probably make pitchers approach him with a little more respect.

or maybe it’s just spring training, and i am talking out of my ass.  either way.

...you said MIL had ruined Hall’s stroke by making him play CF.  How so?

Did you look at his hitting line the year they stuck him in CF?  The year before?  Sure it’s anecdotal, but he’s not the first guy to see his bat go south while trying to learn a demanding defensive position.  It doesn’t really matter that shortstop is a more demanding position, CF is not the same and it’s not easy.

Now maybe the 35 homers in 2006 were flukey, but he didn’t just regress.  He went from a 125 OPS+ to an 89.

I was joking above - my kids are wonderful and all but they’re not going to inherit enough athletic ability or size to play much baseball, esp. not a skill position.  I would imagine they’ll be better at diving or gymnastics or distance running or soccer or fencing or weight-lifting than their dad though, regardless of handedness.  Hmm, actually fencing is very handed.

“left-handed guitar?”

Try finding a left-handed flute.

...do you know how hard it is to find a 3/4 size left-handed guitar?

So stringing it upside down was good enough for Hendrix but it’s not good enough for your kid?

Now he wants to play guitar; do you know how hard it is to find a 3/4 size left-handed guitar?

ehh, just string it upside down, like Jimi.

“he’s not the first guy to see his bat go south while trying to learn a demanding defensive position”

Thanks, that was what I was looking for.  Didn’t realize it was a “common” phenomenon.  Still, I can see how it would happen temporarily but it’s hard to believe it would ruin a player’s offense for all time

i’d much rather have an exciting young CFer than win an internet debate.

Absolutely.  But in fairness to you, hasn’t your position in the internet debate been that people should be realistic in their expectations for Gardner’s MLB performance level?  I don’t recall you demanding that the guy be summarily executed or anything.  I know my own Gardner-bashing isn’t really intended as Gardner-bashing as much as it is intended as Gardner fanboy-bashing.  I like the kid just fine and I hope he does well.  But I’m still not seeing the second coming of Willie Mays based on three spring training home runs.

Is there any possibility that Kevin Long (or some other coach/baseball goddess) has done something to Gardner’s swing that might make these sort of shots more than a ST anomoly?

I can see how it would happen temporarily but it’s hard to believe it would ruin a player’s offense for all time

Well, Hall didn’t bounce back in 2008 when they brought him back to the infield, he got even worse.  SSS and all, but I’m not expecting him to go high in very many fantasy drafts this year, if you know what I mean.

And as long as we’re rehashing the last thread, lots of folks think the Tigers wrecked Brandon Inge by making him a catcher.

“the Tigers wrecked Brandon Inge”

In this case, though, you could see where something physical might have happened—in the knee, in the hip—that might have tweaked his stroke in a subtle and permanent way.  Less obvious how playing CF would do that.  Not trying to argue with you, just sort of chewing it over.

Is there any possibility that Kevin Long (or some other coach/baseball goddess) has done something to Gardner’s swing that might make these sort of shots more than a ST anomoly?

Sure there’s a possibility that Long has taught the kid a thing or three.  It’s also possible that Gardner’s just gotten stronger (completely legally, of course).  But the homers are an anomaly by definition.  Like yup says, he’s hit exactly nine in his entire professional career, and more than half of those were in Staten Island four years ago.  The only way to know that this isn’t a fluke is for him to keep doing it.  Time will tell.

In this case, though, you could see where something physical might have happened—in the knee, in the hip—that might have tweaked his stroke in a subtle and permanent way.

I’m not aware of any injury issues with Inge, and he did hit better (at least for a little while) when they cut down on (and then eliminated) his catching.

That’s really cool, MC.  My project to convince my sons that they’re lefties has failed, and now all I have to look forward to is not changing diapers some day.

My dad forced me into switch hitting, so that might entertain you too. (He was pretty disappointed when I started throwing rocks into the pond with my right hand.)

Wow, interesting quote from Peavy that I just read on MLBTR:

“Boston was a place that I told the Padres I would certainly be interested in playing.  I don’t know if there were any talks. I gave the Padres a list and Boston was on that list. Boston was a place I told the Padres I would be interested in playing at. Set that straight for sure.”

Lester, Matsuzaka, Peavy, Beckett, and Wakefeld… I’d still take our rotation depth, but that would have made this quite a crazy season.

My dad forced me into switch hitting

I taught myself to switch hit in Little League, mostly because Bernie was my favorite player. I was just about as good lefty as righty, granted I wasn’t much of an offensive threat either way.

MC, Steve Lombardi thinks your kid sucks because he can’t crack 92 with his heater.

Some of you guys seem to have spent entirely too much time outside of your mother’s basements to have any credibility on this board.

That is: mothers’.

Sheesh.  Don’t tell my students.

Some of you guys seem to have spent entirely too much time outside of your mother’s basements to have any credibility on this board.

My basement is dark and scary, damp as well. Not a good location for my computers and other electronic geekery. Now my daily D&D sessions are totally held down there: perfect ambiance.

Steve Lombardi thinks your kid sucks because he can’t crack 92 with his heater.

I bet Steve Lombardi would cry like a little girl if my kid plunked him with one of those 51 mph Bugs Bunny change-ups.  Anyway, I’m going to hold off on telling the little fella that his fastball sucks until he’s a sophomore at least.

Bad day for IPK.

Just getting his work in.

no, the only thing that makes Steve Lombardi cry is when the Yankees win

He’s surely ok with a win ascribable to a True Yankee, or despite a bad performance by any Not True Yankee.

Neat-o Gardner plots wrt Gathwright at RAB.

rilkefan, I believe you were asking about something like this:

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090309&content_id=3953792&vkey=news_nyy&fext;=.jsp&c_id=nyy&partnerId=rss_nyy

Bill Hall in 701 career PA as 3B: .800 OPS
In 500 PA as CF: .754 OPS

Could be nothing

Thanks, yankz.  Sadly that’s not Andy calling the season like in ‘98 - which given the A-Rod sitch would I suppose be unreasonable anyway.

So stringing it upside down was good enough for Hendrix but it’s not good enough for your kid?

That’s one of the things I’m looking into.  I’ve talked to a few people that are pretty knowledgeable - including a lefty-guitarist - and they mostly agree that it’s *better* to have a guitar built for a left-hander.  But if I don’t want to spend a ton of money, restringing it is good as well.  If nothing else you are more limited with restringing because you can’t get a cut-out (you could but what would be the point?), and little hands could use that up the fret-board.

But I’m still not seeing the second coming of Willie Mays based on three spring training home runs.

I’d be perfectly happy with the second coming of Mickey Rivers…minus the money problems.

Bill Hall in 701 career PA as 3B: .800 OPS
In 500 PA as CF: .754 OPS

Could be nothing

Of course, half of his career PA are missing from the above, and half of those 3B PA came after the CF experiment.

This is a guy who played all of three games in the OF in his minor league career.  He struggled to establish himself as a major league hitter, and when he finally starts to have some success, his team says, “Hey, stick him in CF.”  His OPS+ went from 67 to 116 to 125 as an infielder, and then to 89 as a center fielder.  Could be nothing, or it could be that the league just figured him out and it happened to coincide with the position switching.  Hell, it could be steroids.  Or maybe there actually is something to be said for increasing your employees’ comfort level by creating well-defined roles and not changing them all the time.

WRT the discussion in the previous thread, the point is that just because player x has logged time at positions a, b and c in the past doesn’t mean that he can actually play all of those positions passably or that he can be expected to perform well on the other side of the ball while being moved all over the field.  Super-sub type players are rare for a reason.  For every Mark McLemore v.2001 who puts up a 115 OPS+ in ~500 PA while playing six different positions including SS and CF, there are dozens of players for whom “versatility” means that they can suck at four different positions.

For every Mark McLemore v.2001 who puts up a 115 OPS+ in ~500 PA while playing six different positions including SS and CF, there are dozens of players for whom “versatility” means that they can suck at four different positions.

Nick Swisher anyways blames a lot of his hitting woes on being all over the field in 2008.  Quick glance at the stats and he was mostly a 1B/corner OF his first couple of years.  In 2007 he started playing more CF, and his offense went down a little from 2006.  Played a lot more CF in 2008 and his offense went down a lot more; though there was also a team change and as well noted he ran into some bad luck.

Chicken and egg thing; is it easier to hit while playing a less demanding defensive position, or do good hitters gravitate to less demanding positions?  I think it’s a little of both personally…

Played a lot more CF in 2008 and his offense went down a lot more; though there was also a team change and as well noted he ran into some bad luck.

Also, his manager has said that he deserves a big chunk of the blame for Swisher’s poor season, specifically for misusing him as a CF and leadoff hitter.

Sounds like confirmation bias to me at this point.

Also, his manager has said that he deserves a big chunk of the blame for Swisher’s poor season, specifically for misusing him as a CF and leadoff hitter.

It was probably cause the GM was sending down lineup suggestions.

Well, sure it does.  But sometimes a bias deserves to be confirmed.  We’re talking about human resources here.  If you try a person in an unfamiliar role and they express reservations about that role and then struggle to meet expectations in that role and you as a supervisor perceive that the new role is negatively affecting the person’s morale, it just might be reasonable to conclude that (s)he is unsuited to that new role and would have greater value to the organization if returned to his or her previous role.

In case it’s not obvious, 74 is in re 72, not 73.

Sounds like confirmation bias to me at this point.

To follow up on MC…yeah we definitely aren’t doing any rigorous analysis here.  I think this is more in line with forming an hypothesis based on observed data.  It passes the sniff test, but the right thing to do then would be to set up a series of repeatable tests and then run sample data - such as every player-season since say 1950 with more than 50 games played at both “challenging” and “easy” defensive positions - and see how well the data correlates.  Let us know when you’re done with that and what you found

Not that it was legible, but I was thinking in part that the bias was with the players not the analysts here.  We need to build a universe where the players are held constant but expected to shift positions.

Of course there are instances of shifts - ARod, Finley, Knoblauch, Soriano, ... - how did they do post-shift wrt their projections n years out?

In chess, there are openings with long variations running upwards of 15 moves - there was a game at a recent supertournament where the first novelty occurred after iirc 25 moves.  So some people have suggested shuffling the pieces on their starting positions before each game to keep things fresh.  Imagine baseball like that.

Get your left-handed kid to play violin.  They’re made for natural lefties, I swear.  Any dexterity I have on my left side at all is due to playing violin for years.