The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, May 25, 2009

New Yankee Stadium Splits through May 24

With the constant bleating about how New Yankee Stadium is an AL version of Coors Field, I decided to look at the actual data to see what it says. Of course, it's way too small of a sample size to make any definitive assessment about how the new Stadium is actually going to play. There's a reason most analysts who are worth a damn use at least three year park factors when doing any park adjusting. There's just too much noise in a single season's park factors. So you can probably imagine there's even more noise when looking at a quarter of a season's park factors.

Anyway, all I'm doing here is presenting the data. I am not making any claims that this is how we should expect New Yankee Stadium to play going forward.

The Yankees have played 23 games at home and 22 on the road, although these numbers don't include today's thrashing of Texas at Arlington. Here are the splits for the Yankees and their opponents at New Yankee Stadium and on the road.
Split PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR BB HBP K AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650
NYS 1887 1661 461 80 5 87 196 20 311 .278 .359 .489 282 97
Road 1609 1421 373 92 8 49 152 19 286 .262 .338 .442 212 86
Combined 3496 3082 834 172 13 136 348 39 597 .271 .349 .467 494 92


BR above are context-neutral batting runs using linear weights which should help cancel out some of the noise that may show up in early season pure run totals. These are not position or park-adjusted. Using these numbers, I get the following component park factors.

Stat PF
AVG 1.03
OBP 1.03
SLG 1.05
2B 0.84
HR 1.16
BB 1.04
K 0.97
BR 1.06


A park factor greater than one favors hitters. Now obviously, the big number that every has been harping on is the homers, and yeah, 1.16 is high. But the bottom line is that scoring at New Yankee Stadium is currently playing at 1.06 park factor for runs, which is the only thing that really matters. That's high, but that ain't Coors Field.

When Peter Gammons says:
We have enough games and it wasn't a very well-planned ballpark. Any player will tell you that [the new Yankee Stadium] has become one of the biggest jokes in baseball.

I wonder if he is aware that his favorite team plays in park that has boosted run scoring by the following amount over the last five seasons?

2004: 1.09
2005: 1.03
2006: 1.02
2007: 1.11
2008: 1.05
Avg: 1.06
--Posted at 9:36 pm by SG / 143 Comments | - (379)

Comments

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Sounds like someone misses Cody Ransom.

The Yankees could really use his vertical leap.

If the Yankees cut Berroa from the 40 man roster and replace him with an outfielder, then one of Jeter/Cano or Rodriguez gets hurt, that makes Ramiro Pena a starter.  Who is then the backup IF?

Somebody who isn’t demonstrably worse than Angel Berroa?

then one of Jeter/Cano or Rodriguez gets hurt, that makes Ramiro Pena a starter.  Who is then the backup IF?

At some point, that no longer has to be a working assumption, no? Or is it normal for most teams to have two backup IF?

Ride it out until Ransom returns? Kevin Russo? Assuming no one claims Berroa, Berroa?

If the Yankees cut Berroa from the 40 man roster and replace him with an outfielder, then one of Jeter/Cano or Rodriguez gets hurt, that makes Ramiro Pena a starter.  Who is then the backup IF?

That’s the point at which you trade Robertson for Mark DeRosa.

But Miranda’s on the 40-man.  If you promote him and DFA Berroa, don’t you get to give Berroa’s spot on the 40-man to someone else (another guy who can play 2B-SS-3B)? 

(I plead complete ignorance about the rules governing the 40-man, etc.)

It would take more than Robertson to get Mark DeRosa.

Philosophically, I’d rather have my backups be young players that can transition into full time roles once the veterans move on/retire.  Unless the proverbial window of opportunity is closing, dealing a well thought of prospect for a back up utility man puts you in a worse long term position.  This typically more cost effective than bringing in a journey man with several years of experience.


As for DeRosa, I’m not betting he can sustain last year’s level of production.

Philosophically, I’d rather have my backups be young players that can transition into full time roles once the veterans move on/retire.

Do good full-time players pop up like that?  I think so so full time players appear that way waiting for the vet to shuffle off, but if a young player is any good, he takes the job.

Philosophically, I’d rather have my backups be young players that can transition into full time roles once the veterans move on/retire.

The problem being that we don’t have any infielders who realistically project as decent full-time players.  But anyhow, if you were reacting to my DeRosa trial balloon, I was proposing that as a solution only if Cano, Jeter or A-Rod were to go down for an extended period.  To bring him on as UIF would be not worth it for Robertson, let alone Robertson-plus.

“If the Yankees cut Berroa from the 40 man roster and replace him with an outfielder, then one of Jeter/Cano or Rodriguez gets hurt, that makes Ramiro Pena a starter.  Who is then the backup IF”

Kevin Russo? That is if he ever gets healthy again.

Well, Mo Rivera for one.  I’d argue that their treatment of Hughes is similar.  Adam Jones had limited playing time before breaking out for the O’s this year.

The Yankees, in the past, seem to have traded these players away for the flavor of the week free agent.

if Cano, Jeter or A-Rod were to go down for an extended period.  To bring him on as UIF would be not worth it for Robertson, let alone Robertson-plus.
 

In that circumstance, he’d be a starter.  I’d agree that he would be a good pick up.  Of course, the Indians would know that Cashman had no bargaining power, so we’d have to pay through the nose to get him.

This is a really good analysis that’s generated some discussion.  I’ve been wondering a lot about AJ recently (moreso since I’ll probably see him and Andy pitch at YS next week).

A few things jumped out.  First, though his line drive % is in line with career averages, he’s not getting ground balls at nearly the same rate he used to.  It’s a 1:1 ratio this year, compared to 1.52:1 last year.  I kind of thought that he’d been relying on his curve a bit too much to start the year, but it’s only up to 33.6% (still higher than last year’s 29%), and it seems to come at the expense of his tertiary pitch, the changeup (which he hardly ever uses anyway). 

I’m really thinking he’s going to improve since he doesn’t seem to getting hit THAT hard (despite the fly ball HRs) when the ground balls start picking up.

Just to add on to my last comment.  Even Melky, he was more or less given the fulltime role as soon as he came up. You’d either really have to be stuck behind a mega star or have some kinda med/low ceiling to be a long term back up.

While at BB-ref, this was the sponsored message on Melky’s page:

“Oh, what you, Leche, could have been. With only 280 ABs in AAA they wasted all your options before your 24th birthday. Bernie got 468 ABs in AAA and almost two full seasons in AA. Hopefully you find a chance to develop as a hitter.”

Holy smokes, Melky is seriously young.  Younger than Gardner!

Yeah, the Melky younger than Gardner thing came up in the great “Melky v. Garder” wars of Jan-March here at RLYW.

I also read somewhere that in the tier-section behind home-plate, in the old stadium it was a concrete wall, and now is either open-air or there are just screens, which *may* mean there is more of an air-current flowing towards the outfield.

I almost mentioned this as well before.  I can see them sealing that up with glass or something if it makes a difference.

An awful lot of posters here were ready to consign Melky to the dustbin of history last Fall and Winter.  Though I really didn’t know what Melky might become I was always far more optimistic about him becoming a useful or better player then I was about Gardner.

bebop, i plead guilty to throwing in the towel on melky last season. But i never thought Gardner represented an upgrade either.

I, for one, had zero faith in Melky after last year.  That made two straight seasons of decline and he just looked awful at the plat after April of 2008.  Needless to say, I’m delighted he changed his approach and has turned it around.  I especially like that he now hits the ball to left-center when he bats lefty instead of trying to pull everything.  It seems as if last year was a non-stop symphony of tapped grounders to second base.

It seems as if last year was a non-stop symphony of tapped grounders to second base.

We call those “Shemps.”

Well, Mo Rivera for one.  I’d argue that their treatment of Hughes is similar.  Adam Jones had limited playing time before breaking out for the O’s this year.

The Yankees, in the past, seem to have traded these players away for the flavor of the week free agent.

I’d say pitchers are different, and I would even say your example of Mo is exactly the point, it took about the end of April 96 for it to be obvious he would be the main weapon in the pen. Adam Jones was probably blocked or injured or whatever in his time in Seattle, and was mainly a cup of coffee late season addition. But as soon as he was traded, he was basically the starter for the O’s.

You may be right though, but it just from my limited memory, good young players take jobs, they aren’t any good at back up roles.

Catcher is probably also different, mostly because the backup is expected to play more than a normal bench player.

It certainly will be nice if Melky maintains his 0.849 OPS.

Adam Jones was probably blocked or injured or whatever in his time in Seattle, and was mainly a cup of coffee late season addition.

They were initially trying to keep him at shortstop, but it didn’t take. Also, Bill Bavasi was the GM there, so poor decisions were par for the course.

Yeah, the Melky younger than Gardner thing came up in the great “Melky v. Garder” wars of Jan-March here at RLYW.

Only the hardened veterans survived.

I’m pretty sure Alex’s hip is still hurting- in every interview I’ve heard where he’s asked the question, he never denies the pain. Which explains why Berroa (4th 3B on the depth chart behind Alex, Pena, and Ransom) is still on the team.

It does kind of suck to use Brett Gardner as a pinch-hitter, though.

I’d rather have my backups be young players that can transition into full time roles once the veterans move on/retire. 

And while I’m taking the other side of the argument here, it’d be nice if Pena and Gardner can continue to fill that role for the near term. Though unless both drastically develop, I have a hard time seeing them as taking the full time gig any time soon or otherwise.

“Only the hardened veterans survived.”

Some of us can even still dance.

Coming this Summer to a theater near Austin Jackson?  That is if he starts hitting for power.

I’m pretty sure Alex’s hip is still hurting- in every interview I’ve heard where he’s asked the question, he never denies the pain. Which explains why Berroa (4th 3B on the depth chart behind Alex, Pena, and Ransom) is still on the team.

So call up Morgan Ensberg or the ghost of Ken Caminiti and stash him in the minors. There’s nothing special about Angel Berroa that means he has to be the non-hitter who is willing to stand at third base should Rodriguez go down again.

Again- who else is there? Pretty sure Ensberg is with another organization. Russo is injured. I guess they could go out and sign a free agent 3B who nobody else has gotten and did well in Spring Training and AAA like…Berroa.

What are the odds Berroa would survive a DFA? It’s been a long time since he’s been a decent major league player.

Some lazy googling failed to reveal the 1996 opening day roster for the Yankees, but didn’t they carry just 10 pitchers that year? 

The save stat was very much in existence then, but doesn’t it seem like it’s taken a kudzu-like stranglehold on baseball since?  With resulting bullpen expansion?  And now we have the “eighth inning guy”—can’t just have one relief ace any more…it’s absurd.

I wonder if relief aces experienced the same “lack of focus” problems when pitching in games with a lead of >3 runs before the save was invented.

I’m not saying get rid of Berroa because I don’t like his ugly mug. But he’s a never-used security blanket who is occupying a roster spot. If you can hold onto him through the DFA, cool. But don’t let the possibility of losing Angel F. Berroa hold you back from improving the 25-man roster.

You mean there really are no non prospects on the Yankee 40 man if they feel like they have to hold on to Berroa just in case.

For the record, I feel the same way about Tomko as I feel about Berroa. They suck, but they aren’t useless. They shouldn’t be discarded for no reason, but should be cut ruthlessly if a more useful player comes along.

NYY should do everything ruthfully.

Mantle, Martin and Ford did and rumor has it that Melky and Robbie did but have they stopped?

What are the odds Berroa would survive a DFA? It’s been a long time since he’s been a decent major league player.

There have been a rash of infield injuries, Met’s Reyes, Rays Iwamura, A’s Ellis, Brews’ Weeks, etc. Not saying the Berroa would be claimed or anything.

Berroa can’t be sent down without possibly losing him?  Is it the same or separate question about sending Berroa down or getting him off the 40 roster?

Mantle, Martin and Ford did and rumor has it that Melky and Robbie did but have they stopped?

Hopefully no hiccups for the confirmation.

I really want to call Bruney “Carla” because of the whole “Carla Pavano” thing and because it sounds just like “Carla Bruni,” but unfortunately, I believe that his injury is legitimate.

I really want to call Bruney “Carla” because of the whole “Carla Pavano” thing and because it sounds just like “Carla Bruni,” but unfortunately, I believe that his injury is legitimate.

If anything, his error was trying to tough it out.

And you get the feeling Bruney actually wants to pitch. It helps that he’s been good too.

Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Cano 2B
Cabrera CF
Matsui DH
Swisher RF
Cervelli C

How awesome is that lineup going to be once Posada is swapped in for Cervelli?  Get well hammy!

During Hughes’ start yesterday, was anyone else thinking “No hammy, no hammy, no hammy, STOP!”?

By the way, Pavano is currently humiliating the Rays.

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