The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Monday, May 25, 2009

New Yankee Stadium Splits through May 24

With the constant bleating about how New Yankee Stadium is an AL version of Coors Field, I decided to look at the actual data to see what it says. Of course, it's way too small of a sample size to make any definitive assessment about how the new Stadium is actually going to play. There's a reason most analysts who are worth a damn use at least three year park factors when doing any park adjusting. There's just too much noise in a single season's park factors. So you can probably imagine there's even more noise when looking at a quarter of a season's park factors.

Anyway, all I'm doing here is presenting the data. I am not making any claims that this is how we should expect New Yankee Stadium to play going forward.

The Yankees have played 23 games at home and 22 on the road, although these numbers don't include today's thrashing of Texas at Arlington. Here are the splits for the Yankees and their opponents at New Yankee Stadium and on the road.
Split PA AB Hits 2B 3B HR BB HBP K AVG OBP SLG BR BR/650
NYS 1887 1661 461 80 5 87 196 20 311 .278 .359 .489 282 97
Road 1609 1421 373 92 8 49 152 19 286 .262 .338 .442 212 86
Combined 3496 3082 834 172 13 136 348 39 597 .271 .349 .467 494 92


BR above are context-neutral batting runs using linear weights which should help cancel out some of the noise that may show up in early season pure run totals. These are not position or park-adjusted. Using these numbers, I get the following component park factors.

Stat PF
AVG 1.03
OBP 1.03
SLG 1.05
2B 0.84
HR 1.16
BB 1.04
K 0.97
BR 1.06


A park factor greater than one favors hitters. Now obviously, the big number that every has been harping on is the homers, and yeah, 1.16 is high. But the bottom line is that scoring at New Yankee Stadium is currently playing at 1.06 park factor for runs, which is the only thing that really matters. That's high, but that ain't Coors Field.

When Peter Gammons says:
We have enough games and it wasn't a very well-planned ballpark. Any player will tell you that [the new Yankee Stadium] has become one of the biggest jokes in baseball.

I wonder if he is aware that his favorite team plays in park that has boosted run scoring by the following amount over the last five seasons?

2004: 1.09
2005: 1.03
2006: 1.02
2007: 1.11
2008: 1.05
Avg: 1.06
--Posted at 9:36 pm by SG / 143 Comments | - (260)

Comments

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SG, is there any way to figure out how much HRs are up (if at all) all around baseball? 

maybe looking at the # of HRs hit over the last few years in the first 45 games of the season compared to this season? just seems like there are a bunch of non-HR hitters who are on pace to hit 20-30 HRs this year, and not just yankees.

I can do a quick comparison of HR/H through May 24, 2008 and May 24, 2009.  Give me a minute.

<u>2008</u>
HR/AB: 0.027
HR/H: 0.103  
<u>2009</u>
HR/AB: 0.030
HR/H: 0.116  

% Diff    
HR/AB: 112.8%
HR/H: 111.9%

If you use AB as the denominator, HRs are up by close to 13%, if you use hits they’re up close to 12%.  Either way, they’re up.

I wonder if he is aware that his favorite team plays in park that has boosted run scoring by the following amount over the last five seasons?

I don’t think he’s aware of much, really.

From just watching the games, it looks like there have been some HRs that never would have been hit out in the old park.  However, there’s really no way to be sure of this.
Someone mentioned that when the old stadium is taken down, it will shift the winds or something.  I wonder if there is a way to correct the problem with some changes to the park design, without moving the walls back.

Most of the jacks this month seemed to be well clubbbbbed.
Questionable fly balls galore in April.
Lupica should die.

And take Gammons with him

Not only is the data a ridiculously small sample (what is it, like 20 games?) but there’s also a stretch in there where the Yankees pitching was just putrid.  Now, is it the chicken or the egg, I don’t know.

Also, going forward, perhaps the pitchers will think that NYS is a bandbox and will adjust the way they pitch, therein altering the results (if that’s even possible)? 

This is why I hate MLB Network. They could have went more analytical than talking about dirty uniforms and hustling down the line (while still talking about that stuff.) Instead, they just went with the ESPN format with cheesier analysts and dumber retread athletes (Al Leiter excluded.) It would have been cool to have “journalists” arguing back and forth. “Peter Gammons, in his column today, said….  But what Pete fails to realize is….” I guess the fact that they showed all of Ken Burns baseball is cool, but MLBN s**ks b*lls.

BTW- is the fact that NYS is suppressing 2B’s and inflating HR’s indication that the ball is flying out (or has been flying out)? Seems to make sense.. ball of the wall = 2B. Add a few feet and it’s a HR.

Looking at the home/road HR splits of the starters, a few things stood out even if they don’t necessarily offer anything more than curious factoids:

Pettitte has given up 7 HR at home in 32.1 IP while only giving up 1 in 26.1 IP on the road. 

Hughes has given up 5 HR in 14 IP at home while giving up 1 in 15.2 IP on the road.

In contrast, CC has given up only 1 HR at home in 34 IP, and only 2 on the road in 37 IP.

In contrast, CC has given up only 1 HR at home in 34 IP, and only 2 on the road in 37 IP.

71 IP already? That dude is a horse.

Great win today.

What did Lupica say, thurm?

Clydesdale.

Sorry, but anyone with eyes can see that the right field power ally is ridiculously shallow and the wall is too short. It’s the fault of that stupid hand operated scoreboard,which, obviously, requires a straight rather than a curved wall. Old things are cool when they are, you know, old, but what kind of idiot thought a faux-vintage tiny hand operated scoreboard was a good idea?

Not to say i don’t appreciate the analysis, and yes, it is possible to increase home runs and not have a huge impact on overall scoring for a park. I believe Baltimore is often like this. But that is a big park factor for homers.

Oh, and Hughes is going to have to wear a red hat every start now. You know baseball players.

Anyway, all I’m doing here is presenting the data. I am not making any claims that this is how we should expect New Yankee Stadium to play going forward.

Reason #1 why SG would never make it as a mainstream baseball analyst.

Someone mentioned that when the old stadium is taken down, it will shift the winds or something.  I wonder if there is a way to correct the problem with some changes to the park design, without moving the walls back.

I’ve read that they are “unsure” of the effect on the wind-patterns after the old stadium is demolished.  But they don’t want to make any changes until after it is gone, which makes sense.  I also read somewhere that in the tier-section behind home-plate, in the old stadium it was a concrete wall, and now is either open-air or there are just screens, which *may* mean there is more of an air-current flowing towards the outfield.  They have options.

Sorry, but anyone with eyes can see that the right field power ally is ridiculously shallow and the wall is too short.

I think the wall being too short is clearly a problem because of fans interfering with balls fielders can make a play on.  Something should be done with that, whether it is *just* removing the first row of seats, doing that and moving the fence back (and raising it 2-4 feet), or raising the fence 2-4 feet with a screen or plexiglass. 

I personally wouldn’t mind if they went all-out and removed the first row, moved the fences back, and raised them.  Yankees seem to be developing some OF’ers with good range for a change, so bigger park may play to their strength.  And yeah, I like triples and inside-the-park homers.

it is possible to increase home runs and not have a huge impact on overall scoring for a park

What statisical dropoff offsets the increase in HRs?

If the chart above is any indication it’d doubles, which makes sense.

Woo! Sotomayor for SCJ!! It’s a good day for the Yankees!

There’s a high probability I did this wrong, however:

Using Tangotiger’s Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002, a runner on second with 0 outs is worth 1.189 runs. 

If you normalize the 80 home doubles by dividing by (100%-84%), you get 95.2.  Multiply this by 1.189 and you get an expected 113.2 runs.  This assumes that every double will be with 0 out, which is obviously false.

If you take the actual 80 home doubles and multiply by 1.189, you get 95.12 expected runs. 

So if we account for each “missing” double, we would expect a maximum of an additional 18 runs.  Of course, some of the HRs would turn into doubles, but that would decrease the run expectancy.  I’m just not seeing the pure offset between doubles turning into home runs as the explanation.

Sorry, perhaps my point was worded wrong. A park can increase home run production relative to average but still have a low or neutral park factor. Obviously, home runs can’t increase without increasing run production, but overall a park can be homer friendly without necessarily being run friendly. For instance, it can have a short porch but lots of foul ground or something.

Ruh Roh.  Bruney to visit the Grim Reaper, i.e. Dr. Andrews.

Interesting post at RAB about possible bullpen reinforcements on the trade market.  Street, Qualls and Valverde the names of note.  They say—and I hope and believe they’re right—that nothing will happen yet, and Melancon and Robertson will get their chance to sink or swim first.

Yes, but in that scenario, the opportunity cost of a foul-out is a fall off in non-HR base hits, which doesnt show up in the data.

Wow, so Sotomayor DID get the nod?

That’s awesome news.

If he really wanted a Latino, why not Jose Veras for SCOTUS?  Guys who throw 95 with shitty command are grossly underrepresented throughout the federal judiciary.  And we really need Melancon.

Guys who throw 95 with shitty command grossly underrepresented throughout the federal judiciary.

You can’t have Farnsworth on the Bench…

Sotomayor also stopped the abortion that would have been regular season games with Replacement Players in 1995.

Also, of all the people to use in an 11-0 game, Aceves!!?? Isn’t 11-0 the definition of Veras-Time?

Isn’t 11-0 the definition of Veras-Time?

Apparently Veras was in DC betting vetted for SCOTUS.

Peter Gammons has become the Red Sox very own John Sterling.

As for Aceves pitching yesterday, he hadn’t been in a game in three days.  I think Girardi just wanted to get him some work so he’ll be sharp if he’s needed in a higher leverage situation.

Using Tangotiger’s Run Expectancy Matrix, 1999-2002, a runner on second with 0 outs is worth 1.189 runs.

You’d probably be better off using batting runs by linear weights, as these take into account averaging over all base-out states. 

Using the RE Matrix, that doesn’t subtract out the value of no one on, 0 outs, which is 0.53, so a lead-off double isn’t worth 1.189, it’s worth 0.66 runs.

RE [33]

If I understand you correctly, .66 is the incremental value over no one one, 0 out.  If I’m comparing doubles vs. HRs, I can use their absolute run expectancy values b/c I’m comparing them in a vacuum…and each outcome (2B or HR) each has the same “run baseline” of .53 runs.

So if we account for each “missing” double, we would expect a maximum of an additional 18 runs.  Of course, some of the HRs would turn into doubles, but that would decrease the run expectancy.  I’m just not seeing the pure offset between doubles turning into home runs as the explanation.

Here are the linear weights for the component stats that constitute batting runs, pro-rating road PAs to equal NYS PAs.

Hits     2B    3B    HR    BB    HBP    Outs    BR
NYS    113    14    2    39    34    3    
-62    143
Road    103    22    1    26    30    7    
-63    126 

These don’t includes SBs since there’s not really a park factor for those.

Sotomayor grew up a few blocks from Yankee Stadium. neato

haha, Obama just madea joke about the New England senators filibustering the pick.

Sotomayor grew up a few blocks from Yankee Stadium. neato

GOP Senate Judiciary staff already has her on tape charging the field after Chambliss ‘76 HR.  She’s toast.

Peter Gammons has become the Red Sox very own John Sterling.

In addition to being a homer and hating stats, his vision is now failing too?

These don’t includes SBs since there’s not really a park factor for those.

Any thought on double-plays?  I.e. if there have been more double-plays than average at NYS, perhaps that would account for why run-scoring isn’t as high as the rest of the numbers might suggest?  Also, GIDP is something they do park factors for isn’t it?  Different infields would seem to affect that (e.g. fast vs. slow).

And just to be clear, I’m sure it is mostly a factor of SSS right now.  Over time, either the HR factor will go down, other factors affecting runs will go down (or in the case of K’s, up), or run factor will go up.

Also, GIDP is something they do park factors for isn’t it?  Different infields would seem to affect that (e.g. fast vs. slow).

I’m thinking that it wouldn’t have *that much* of an effect especially when compared to other stuff.

An interesting observation by Joel Sherman, of all people:

Jeter is seeing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance. He has not seen four pitches per plate appearance in any season. His career-high was 3.88 in 1997. He is on pace for 61 extra-base hits, which would be his third highest total ever and his highest since 2004. He also is on pace for 32 steals or six more than the past two years combined.

FWIW, I get the probability of the away rate fluctuating to the home rate to be very small.  I wouldn’t call this a small sample in that sense.  But that doesn’t take into account inhomogeneity in e.g. the pitchers contributing above.

Jeter is seeing 4.01 pitches per plate appearance.

Yankee stadium is an eye pad!

I think Jeter’s 7 homers are more than enough evidence that Yankee Stadium is a band box. nay, a hat box even

I’m thinking that it wouldn’t have *that much* of an effect especially when compared to other stuff.

Well, over the course of several seasons probably not.  Over the course of 20-something games though I think it could be a pretty big factor.  Either way, I think the difference between parks in GIDP is probably measureable, and meaningufl, if only a little.  It was probably MORE meaningful years ago than now though.

I think Jeter’s 7 homers are more than enough evidence that Yankee Stadium is a band box. nay, a hat box even

On the surface, this appears correct (5 HR at home and 2 away, last year 3 at home 8 away).  But again, in SSS, what are the pitchers?  Jeter (predicatably) is hitting HR at a greater rate against lefties; have all his HR against lefties come at the NYS?

SG, I know this may be more difficult.  But wouldn’t the more-correct way to determine how much HR are up over all of baseball be to remove YS (both old and new) from the numbers?  If you did that in [3], it isn’t clear.

Wasn’t old YS pretty neutral? I think what Mike K. is saying is accurate but it wouldn’t change the numbers all that much.

Wasn’t old YS pretty neutral? I think what Mike K. is saying is accurate but it wouldn’t change the numbers all that much.

IIRC, it depressed HR slightly.  I think removing the numbers from this year’s stadium may have a bigger impact - or more precisely, if this year’s stadium is such a bandbox it *should* have a big(ger) impact - and if we remove this year’s numbers we have to remove last year’s as well.  You are correct it shouldn’t change the numbers much, but…

I think we have to assume at the moment that NYS is a bandbox until the evidence starts to swing the other way, correct?  Even if that assumption is correct and the place does in fact turn out to be a launching pad, does this affect in-game strategy at all? 

Could this be the end of the New York Bunting Yankees?

Oh, I meant, removing old YS from the trends. You could probably get away with just not removing old YS, then doing the analysis for this year with NYS. Would make it a little easier..

You could probably get away with just not removing old YS, then doing the analysis for this year with NYS.

Yeah, I’m sure you are correct.  I just figured it was the right way to do it.

Could this be the end of the New York Bunting Yankees?

I think the amount the Yankees have been bunting this year is overstated; though it’s difficult to tell because they don’t record “failed sacrifices” or “attempted to sacrifice until there were 2 strikes”.  Yankees have 14 sac-hits, which ties them for 3rd in the AL, though they aren’t significantly ahead of most other teams. 

So yeah, sounds like a lot.  But then if you look at WHO is doing the sacrificing…Gardner, Cervelli, Berroa, Molina, and Pena account for 9 of them, and I don’t think most people here are upset with that.  Melky accounts for 2 of them; early in the season no one would be complaining, but now we are.  Damon’s I’m pretty sure that was an attempt for a hit where he got thrown out.  Jeter does it on his own a lot (and only has one).  Swisher…I dunno when that was.

I think deciding whether or not the Yankees bunt too much would have to wait more for when the full team is there.  If they are bunting a lot when Melky is their weakest hitter it is a problem.  But not necessarily on days when they have 3 hitters with Gardner the strongest of them.

Tallest midget.

One of those Melky sacrifices was a clear attempt to get on base.

Is it just me, or has Gardner looked a lot better at the plate recently?  Before, pitchers would go 0-2 on him and put him away.  Now, even when he gets behind in the count, he is able to foul balls off and if a pitcher needs to lay one over for a strike on 3-2, he has often been able to hit his way on.  I’m not saying Gardner is the next Ted Williams, only that he has improved and made adjustments.

Interesting, Mike K.  Somewhat surprised at those results.  I wonder—and I expect you to do the research ASAP!—what the various game situations were. 

Because unless you’re in a scoreless game against an elite pitcher, I don’t think I’d be happy with any sac bunt before the 7th inning.  And almost never on the road IMO.

As I said on previous thread, I like it only when you have a chance to bring the outfield in with a sac bunt.  And in those situations—man on 2nd nobody out, tie game, as the home team, in the 9th inning or beyond—I like it A LOT.  Almost to the point that I wonder if Teixeira should’ve been bunting in the 10th inning Sunday.  I said almost.

I’m not saying Gardner is the next Ted Williams, only that he has improved and made adjustments.

I see no reason why Gardner couldn’t be a rich man’s Bubba Crosby.

Looking at bunting through a quasi-game theory lens, a bunt here or there will keep the defenders from playing back.  If they are a step in closer than they might be otherwise, a few more ground balls may find holes without a significant decrease in sacrifice opportunity.

Is it just me, or has Gardner looked a lot better at the plate recently? 

It’s not you.  The stats certainly bear it out.  And if Joe Mauer had an old- school catcher’s body (stubby arms and legs), Gardner’s dash home would have been all the MSM needed to prove that hustle and grit are the keys to Yankee resurgence.

a bunt here or there will keep the defenders from playing back. 

Agreed.  I always thought Giambi should drop a few down just to keep them from regularly empolying the shift.  He seemed to lose a lot of hits up the middle and short RF which turned in to 6-3 or 4-3 putouts.

I always thought Giambi should drop a few down just to keep them from regularly empolying the shift.  He seemed to lose a lot of hits up the middle and short RF which turned in to 6-3 or 4-3 putouts.

He tried it a handful of times. He is a pretty incapable bunter.

Which is weird.  You’d think with his hand-eye coordination, he should be able to do it.

Unless Giambi could reliably bunt down the left field line, teams would not abandon the shift - and let’s be honest, Giambi was certainly not going to change his game so he could learn to lay a few balls toward the left side of the infield.  I’ve heard this sort of reasoning over and over (it was a favorite of Sterling and Waldman too) and it never made much sense.  Now if Giambi started hitting the ground balls the other way as part of his regular approach perhaps that would have changed something but otherwise, I doubt it.

As for the last game of the Phillies series, does anyone even know if Teixeira can bunt?  If he had, the Phils would have walked A-Rod to load the bases and keep the double play in order and Ramiro Peña could have won the game with anything but that or a pop up.  In any case, if that had failed, many people, probably myself included, would have screamed that the Yanks were needlessly giving away outs.

Last year in 141 PA, Gardner’s BB/K ratio was 8/30.  This year, in 105 PA it is 9/14.  That’s a big time improvement - albeit both are small sample sizes.

That Gardner dive on Sunday was awful, just to break up the praise a little.

Oh shit, I’ve been lumped in with Sterling and Waldman.  Go back to your damn dissertation, would you?

I would’ve taken ground balls the other way too, now that you mention it.  It was just infuriating that he played to the shift and never made adjustments. Almost as infuriating as the 4x a week that Matsui rolls over on an outside pitch and taps into a 4-3.

Anyhoo, as for the Teixeira non-bunt, Mike K. and I were discussing this in the previous thread.  I don’t think I could justify having Texeira squaring around, though if it had been Cano up after A-Rod instead of Pena, I would’ve given it a lot more thought and so, I think, would have Girardi.

If you want to second-guess about Sunday, I wondered why Jeter and Damon weren’t running on the 3-2 pitch to avoid the GIDP.  That can be argued either way I guess.  Ruiz had already thrown out Gardner.  Tex was up lefty and not only strikes out a lot but strikes out looking a lot.  But they are 2 of your fastest players, a combined 13 of 14 in SB attempts.

“he has improved and made adjustments.”

“Last year in 141 PA, Gardner’s BB/K ratio was 8/30.  This year, in 105 PA it is 9/14.”

The ratchet lives.

All I’m saying regarding Gardner is that if Girardi starts him every now and then to give Damon or Swisher a day off, I no longer feel like the team is giving away an automatic out.

All I’m saying regarding Gardner is that if Girardi starts him every now and then to give Damon or Swisher a day off, I no longer feel like the team is giving away an automatic out.

Concur. Who is the last good Yankees 4th outfielder? Rondy White? Gerald Williams?

Well, it was probably Swisher before Xavier Nady blew out his elbow.

Darryl?

Concur. Who is the last good Yankees 4th outfielder? Rondy White? Gerald Williams?

Chad Curtis?  Shane Spencer?

Could this be the end of the New York Bunting Yankees?

Why do you hate grit, hustle, the right way, and all the soldiers defending our liberty and way of life?

I’m not saying Gardner is the next Ted Williams

Same as above, but add Mike K to the list.

I mentioned in the chatter, Gardner hasn’t K’ed in his last 26 or so ABs, with 3 BBs.  To date: .253/.324/.407/.730.  Is that roughly where CF/4th OF should be at to be worth having around.

Yeah, Spencer was pretty solid for a while there. And Strawberry was obviously very good. I suppose 2007 Melky wasn’t bad, but he started a lot with Damon gimpy.

Who is the last good Yankees 4th outfielder?

Derek Jeter in ~4 years?  Is that sacriledge?

Derek Jeter in ~4 years?  Is that sacriledge?

You have a lot of faith in Jeter’s continued usefulness.

It would be nice if the 4th OF had a modicum of power but till someone better comes along he’ll have to do.  At least he can run and field.

It would be nice if the 4th OF had a modicum of power

Like the loser of Swisher/Nady?  I’m still pissed Nady got injured.

How about, instead of looking at the number of homers or even runs given up at NYS as opposed to other parks, we compare the number of actual pitches thrown?

The main concern with having a bandbox is the inherent difference between putting your pitchers at a disadvantage as oppose to putting your hitters at a disadvantage. It doesn’t hurt your hitters to play in a pitcher-friendly park because a dozen fewer ABs over the course of a season doesn’t adversely affect a hitter but too many pitches can wear down a rotation etc.

Like the loser of Swisher/Nady?  I’m still pissed Nady got injured.

When/if Nady comes back, I’d like to see him replace Berroa.

Not to bring up a sore subject, but for those concerned about Phil Hughes’ velocity, if any are still out there, Fan Graphs has his average fastball velocity at 92.5 mph (tied w/ Joba, actually).  Not sure if that includes yesterday against Texas.

For perspective, here’s some other names who don’t throw as hard as Hughes:

Halladay 92.4
Lincecum 92.4
Billingsley 92.2
Peavy 92.0
Cain 91.7
Liriano 91.5
C. Zambrano 91.5
Porcello 91.3
Johan Santana 91.2

Also, Zach Greinke is at 93.3, not far from Hughes.  Oswalt is 93.4.  Verlander is the hardest throwing starter at 95.4.

I think people have a sense that the average FB velocity for ace pitchers is between 93 and 96, when actually, the range is more accurately between 90 and 95.

Any thought on double-plays?  I.e. if there have been more double-plays than average at NYS, perhaps that would account for why run-scoring isn’t as high as the rest of the numbers might suggest?  Also, GIDP is something they do park factors for isn’t it?  Different infields would seem to affect that (e.g. fast vs. slow).

There is an infield factor that should be looked at, but at this point in the season I don’t think it’d be very useful.  It would incorporate not just double plays, but all grounders.  You have turf stadiums versus grass, and then different types of grass (longer/shorter), etc.,


SG, I know this may be more difficult.  But wouldn’t the more-correct way to determine how much HR are up over all of baseball be to remove YS (both old and new) from the numbers?  If you did that in [3], it isn’t clear.

I didn’t do that, we’re talking about removing 87 HRs from 1359.  That’s only going to knock the percentages down by a point or so.

Wasn’t Nady a B, borderline A free agent.  What does his DL time do to his value?

How about, instead of looking at the number of homers or even runs given up at NYS as opposed to other parks, we compare the number of actual pitches thrown?

Any idea where that data is available, as far as number of pitches by park?

Wasn’t Nady a B, borderline A free agent.  What does his DL time do to his value?

The Elias numbers are based at least partially on counting stats, so I doubt he’ll be a Type A after this season.

But that doesn’t take into account inhomogeneity in e.g. the pitchers contributing above.

Right, that’s part of the reason that determing park factors at this point in the season isn’t very meaningful.  Not just inhomogeneity in pitchers, but in opponents as well.

When/if Nady comes back, I’d like to see him replace Berroa.

Oh, definitely.  I was just mentioning that there was a 4th OF with a modicum of power to start the year,  it just got shot down so quickly.

I really liked this  roster construction analysis.  Good things to think about in terms of an optimal usage of roster spots.

In addition to all the close wins and walkoffs, another factor to the Yankees’ recent (and presumably unsustainable) success comes by way of George King at the Post:

‘In the previous 14 games, Yankees pitchers held hitters to a .151 (16-for-106) average in the clutch. Hughes stayed with the script, keeping the Rangers hitless in eight at-bats.’

We really need Posada back

I’d be happy with any position player in the entire organization replacing Berroa.  That guy is totally and completely useless.  He can’t hit, he’s a poor fielder and not a particularly speedy runner.  He adds nothing of value to the team whatsoever.  It’s a travesty that John Rodriguez, Todd Linden or Shelley Duncan didn’t see some time in the bigs instead of him.

I’d be happy with any position player in the entire organization replacing Berroa.

Sounds like someone misses Cody Ransom.

“Right, that’s part of the reason that determing park factors at this point in the season isn’t very meaningful.”

It might be interesting to plot the small-sample park factor for old YS over a season.

I’d be happy with any position player in the entire organization replacing Berroa…  He adds nothing of value to the team whatsoever.  It’s a travesty that John Rodriguez, Todd Linden or Shelley Duncan didn’t see some time in the bigs instead of him.

Or Juan Miranda.  Are the other 3 on the 40-man?

Couldn’t agree with you more though, IE.  Andy Phillips would be an upgrade.  What the hell are they thinking?  Especially now that A-Rod is clearly healthy.

I’m fine with Nady replacing Berroa but I’ve seen more then enough of Ransom and with a gun at my head I choose Berroa easy.

There is an infield factor that should be looked at, but at this point in the season I don’t think it’d be very useful.

I think I was just looking at it from the standpoint of explaining why the runs-factor may not be as high as was expected given the rates for everything else.  All-in-all, I think by the end of the season the numbers will start to line up.

That’s only going to knock the percentages down by a point or so.

I was thinking of this to get a clearer picture is all.  If HR around the majors excluding NYS are up 10% and HR *at* NYS are up 11% over old stadium, then we can conclude NYS *probably* isn’t boosting HR a lot.  If it is 8% to 20% then it probably is.  But yeah, probably not worth the effort at this point in the season.  Not like someone from the Yankees is going to see that and say, “OMG!  We’d better move those fences NOW!”

It’s a travesty that John Rodriguez, Todd Linden or Shelley Duncan didn’t see some time in the bigs instead of him.

I could see the point of having Berroa there after Ransom went down, because they needed a backup-IF.  I could see the point of keeping him even after ARod came back, because they weren’t sure how much ARod could play.  But yeah, at this point ARod has shown he can play every day and keeps getting better, and Berroa isn’t being used.  Either send Pena down to get regular AB’s and bring up Miranda (if you plan on only using Berroa in emergencies), or DFA Berroa and bring up one of the OF.  I vote for the latter.

You never know when these things actually help determine personnel moves…but I wonder if Berroa is tight with Tony Pena from the KC days.

I’m fine with Nady replacing Berroa but I’ve seen more then enough of Ransom and with a gun at my head I choose Berroa easy.

Yeah, it’s a bad break that the Yankees didn’t include Shel Duncan on the 40 roster, cuz that was probably the thing, injury aside, that prevented him from getting called up.

How are benches usually drawn up, there typically is 4 bats/gloves on the bench, right? 9 regular starters, 12 pitchers, 1 backup catcher. so that leaves 3? a 4th outfielder, a defensive infield guy, and the last spot is however the manager wants that spot to be used.

Some times another versatile defensive guy/arm in pen/hitter/pinch runner/etc, but preferably someone who could do a combination of things relatively well. I guess, my only point is that it’s unusual to have 2 defensive infielder, is that right?

If the Yankees cut Berroa from the 40 man roster and replace him with an outfielder, then one of Jeter/Cano or Rodriguez gets hurt, that makes Ramiro Pena a starter.  Who is then the backup IF?

My inexpert analysis of Gardner is that he isn’t trying to hit anything very hard, he’s looking for pitches up and trying to slap them the other way. His swing is all hands and that’s probably the best swing for him. Trying to pull pitches or make hard contact is likely self defeating for Bret, because his swing has too many holes in it. Taking a “make contact” run like hell approach seems to be the intuitive thing to do for a guy with great speed but negligible power and it seems to me that he is employing that approach.

Please keep in mind though, that I’m an idiot and I don’t know much about baseball.

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