I think the best case scenario for Damon now, if he really wants to play for the Yankees, is to take a Pettitte like deal, where he can trade off guaranteed money for more incentives based on plate appearances or something like that. If he really hits them, everybody ends up being a winner. The Yankees still have Melky Cabrera playing LF for them when they start, which I am sure they are willing to upgrade if the price is right. And Damon still can fit with this team.

But guaranteed money for long (or even mid) term, I just don’t know if any team is going to give him those, far less the Yankees.

Is this not the second time Boras has flubbed a potential deal for a client with the Yankees in recent history?  Didn’t he screw up something with A-Rod a couple years back resulting in Alex basically calling him out?

Boras seems to be good w/ using the Yankees to raise the offers of other teams, but then incorrectly buys his own hype about the Yankees having bottomless pockets.

also, it seems like a major downside to backloading a contract is that players view paycuts as a sign of disrespect.  I hope Jeter doesn’t think he’s worth 22 million a season going forward.

While I don’t think it’s likely he’s back at this point, I wouldn’t rule it out completely.

I actually think it is more likely now.  Damon (and Boras) have caved on the years, so now it’s the money.  So unless Cashman has a clear upgrade over Damon, he’ll just wait him out, and get him down to an area Cashman is comfortable with.  Maybe with a few performance-bonuses that *could* get Damon up to 2/$26, or at least close to it.  The kind that if Damon makes it, he’s either producing at that level, or due to injuries he’s the best they have.

Is this not the second time Boras has flubbed a potential deal for a client with the Yankees in recent history?

Well with ARod, the way Boras handled the opt-out, the Yankees were REALLY close to telling ARod to take a hike.  IIRC, ARod had to call the Steinbrenners directly and go to their home to kiss and make up.  Several years ago Bernie Williams (1999?) also had to call Steinbrenner directly to work out a deal rather than going to the Red Sox, though I don’t know if Boras screwed up in that one.

[5] ” Maybe with a few performance-bonuses that *could* get Damon up to 2/$26, or at least close to it.”

Oh God! No!

If Damon really wants to come back, I’d offer 1 year $6M guaranteed with incentives that could reach $10M.  That’s it.

No 2nd year.

Didn’t he screw up something with A-Rod a couple years back resulting in Alex basically calling him out?

Maybe.  Or maybe he just let himself be the bad guy so A-Rod could look like a victim of his evil agent.  But in the end he got his client 100 years at a billion dollars a year, or something like that.

I wouldn’t be saying that Boras screwed anything up or screwed over any of his clients until the dust has settled.

I’m done with Damon.  Nice guy, good player, he would have been a lot more fun to root for if he wasn’t a Red Sox in 2004 but he doesn’t deserve a nostalgia contract.  Matsui (especially with the Japan revenue he pulls in) I would have loved but I hope this is bye bye for Johnny.  They money would be better spent elsewhere.

With the number of top tier free agents that may be available in 2011, and the Yankees’ pre-existing payroll commitments (along with the prospect of new contracts for Jeter and Rivera), giving Damon a two year deal was unsupportable from a financial perspective.

Is this not the second time Boras has flubbed a potential deal for a client with the Yankees in recent history?  Didn’t he screw up something with A-Rod a couple years back resulting in Alex basically calling him out?

Perhaps I’m too cynical, but given that the size of the contract that A-Rod ultimately signed, I wouldn’t be surprised if the A-Rod/Boras falling out was staged in order to regain a negotiating opening with the Yankees.

Sorry, I missed MC’s post.

Or maybe he just let himself be the bad guy so A-Rod could look like a victim of his evil agent.  But in the end he got his client 100 years at a billion dollars a year, or something like that.

He did.  But I have a tough time believing Boras would make himself look bad in order for one client to cash in, no matter how big the client is.  While the result was good for them both, the hit to his reputation was a big negative.  Why would he play the “evil agent” role in that one case when the repercussions might hurt him with future clients or potential clients?

[7] - Even if it was staged it was still a huge screw up.  Hands down the best deal they could have gotten was from the Yankees WITHOUT opting out because the Texas money would still be in play.

The real screw up was announcing the intention to opt out during the WS. As far as I can tell, Boras has suffered no real damage to his reputation for the faux break up with A-Rod.

Boras “caving” on the third year is pretty hollow, since the negotiations always should have been about one year vs two (plus money).

The A-rod contract was a weird situation, since other than Boras getting blown off the Yankees received no concessions from A-rod—they even lost the money coming from Texas—but A-rod supposedly had to come back cap in hand to receive a raise.  Unless A-rod writes a tell-all a decade after he retires, I don’t think I will ever see a satisfying explanation.

I’d offer 1 year $6M guaranteed with incentives that could reach $10M.  That’s it.

So IOW, you don’t want him back.  He’s not going to grovel.  What would the Yankees accomplish by asking him to?

Sorry, I missed MC’s post.

That’s OK.  It bears repeating, and it’s nice to know that I’m not the only one who feels that way.

I have a tough time believing Boras would make himself look bad in order for one client to cash in

Umm, dude, that’s the job description.

So the signing of OBP Jesus is official or what?

Actually, IIRC, it was George who called Bernie, not the other way around, no?

Supposedly just pending the physical.

“So IOW, you don’t want him back.  He’s not going to grovel.  What would the Yankees accomplish by asking him to? “

I don’t really want him back, no.  I wouldn’t offer that right now.

But, if he finds his options are 2/16 in SF or Seattle, he might decide he’d be better off shooting for the $10M, put up gawdy #‘s in NYS and proving he can still play defense and trying again next year.

Supposedly just pending the physical.

Hope N Johnson makes it out of that safely.

[21] The reflex tests scares me. What if he hyper-extends his right knee while involuntarily kicking?

Actually, I’m really hoping NJ needed a year to recover from his last ouchie, and his power numbers will rocket back up.

I bet he keeps “accidentally” mixing up left and right.

Bradley for Silva?

link

Hope N Johnson makes it out of that safely.

“Nick is fine. He’s got six splinters in his mouth from the tongue depressor, but those should clear up well before spring training.”

Wow, the Mariners are getting Bradley for Silva. They look like they could be a pretty strong team next year.

“Bradley for Silva? “

What?!  Did Hendry have a lobotomy?

Apparently they really, really didn’t want Bradley on the team anymore.

I’m surprised they didn’t try to trade Soriano instead. Sure, the contract it worse, but there’s no history of insanity.

Say one thing about Bradley: when he ruffles feathers he really goes all out.  He got suspended by his own team for the remainder of the season for something he probably shouldn’t have - that’s how much he was disliked in Chicago.  So the Mariners once again get a steal.  Jack Z knows what he’s doing out there.

[29]  Yeah, but I think cutting Bradley is a better value.

If you’re paying Silva that money, he’s going to pitch, and he’s going to suck.  Silva is worse than nothing.

Far better to send Bradley and $18M to somebody for a 29 y.o. AAA slugger.

Would the Yankees not give Chicago Juan Miranda if they could have Bradley for $2M p.a.?

[31] I would hope so, Bradley in LF would be good, providing the crazy could be kept in check, even a little bit.

It seems like there would be money involved, since Silva actually has a bigger contract.  Silva moving to the NL might be able to get him above replacement level..

“Granderson + Johnson > Damon + Matsui”

but isn’t Matsui+Granderson > Johnson + Granderson?

Do you trade 100 pts in slg for 50 pts in OBP especially when Johnson can’t play the OF or even 3b whne you could have had Matsui for one year at 6.5 Mil

I would hope so, Bradley in LF would be good, providing the crazy could be kept in check, even a little bit.

What leads you to believe that the crazy could possibly be held in check? I like this move for Seattle, but excuse me if I don’t get excited about the prospect of that psychopath in pinstripes. Plus he wasn’t even a reasonably good player in Chicago and he is likely to get hurt playing the field. What is the likelihood that both Bradly and OBP Jesus would stay healthy for any decent chunk of the season? And you wouldn’t even have Miranda as an option were one of them to go down.

No thanks.

Do you trade 100 pts in slg for 50 pts in OBP especially when Johnson can’t play the OF or even 3b whne you could have had Matsui for one year at 6.5 Mil

Well, OBP is considerably more valuable than slugging, so maybe you do almost make that trade. Plus, on their career, their OPS is basically equal (.852 to .849, with Johnson’s OPS undervalued slightly because of his high OBP). Finally, Johnson is 31, Matsui is 36. Both are probably equally likely to have an injury-marred season, but Johnson is at an age where he is more likely to produce along his career average and also could benefit from a short porch.

[34] - SG has the exact comparison of Matsui vs. Johnson.  Don’t see why adding Granderson to each side of the comparison would change anything.  Johnson projects to be a half-win better, but obviously there are injury risks on both sides.

I have heard, in his latest incarnation, Ken Griffey Jr. brings peace to middle east and cures cancer with his spit. So he will make Milton Bradley notably milder.

Do you trade 100 pts in slg for 50 pts in OBP especially when Johnson can’t play the OF or even 3b whne you could have had Matsui for one year at 6.5 Mil

I think CAIRO disagrees with you on those numbers (more like 30 pts slg from 60 pt OBP)...according to which both Granderson > Damon and Johnson > Matsui.  You have to believe the numbers…I’m actually inclined to think that Johnson’s power numbers should be better.  Plus, the Yanks have loads of OF guys at this point…when you want to spell Teix you can play NJ at first.

Does signing NJ count as fielding another home grown talent?

As much as Pettitte does probably.

It seems like there would be money involved

$6-9M going to the Cubs, depending on who you believe.

Bradley in LF would be good, providing the crazy could be kept in check, even a little bit.

Can you get a therapeutic use exemption for Haldol?

[42] can’t they just turn him into a zombie? Worked for Matsui.

I wonder how the conversation went between Zduriencik and Hendry:

Z: Hi Jim.
H: Hi Jack.
Z: How is the weather down there?
H: I am freezing, how is it in Seattle?
Z: Rainy.

[a few seconds of awkward silence, both pondering how to broach the subject]

(Simultaneously and desperately)

Z: Would you give me Bradley for YES!
H: Would you give me Silva for YES!

[a little pause]

Z: What? I just heard Silva.
H: Sorry, we spoke over each other, I heard you say Bradley.
Z: Uh, okay, so do we have a deal?
H: Let’s make it official.

Johnson’s apparently getting some incentives and a mutual option for 2011.

Gammons says that Boston offered Lackey’s contract to Holliday first.  Olney agrees.  5/$82.5M is apparently also about where the Cardinals’ offer is.  That would seem to be eminently beatable and budgetable.

[44] - Wouldn’t it have been:

Z: Would you take Silva for YES!
H: Would you take Bradley for YES!

[43] The difference is Matsui was already dead before they animated him.  Not sure if the Player’s Association would allow Bradley to be killed first…unless they extended him of course.

“Do you trade 100 pts in slg for 50 pts in OBP”

That would be a close to fair exchange (1.9 is about the factor) if it were germane.

“especially when Johnson can’t play the OF or even 3b whne you could have had Matsui for one year at 6.5 Mil”

Matsui is likely strictly a DH now - if you put him in LF in an emergency, I get to put Teixeira at 3rd and NJ at 1st.  And you couldn’t have had Matsui for 1y/$6.5.

5/$82.5M is apparently also about where the Cardinals’ offer is.  That would seem to be eminently beatable and budgetable.

If his, “first choice is NY” as has been reported, and the offers don’t get any higher, he’ll sign with the Yanks for 5/85 or so.  That is very budgetable.

Matsui is likely strictly a DH now - if you put him in LF in an emergency, I get to put Teixeira at 3rd and NJ at 1st.  And you couldn’t have had Matsui for 1y/$6.5.

It is interesting how much love Matsui is getting now.  He had a nice year, but on offense he and Damon are roughly equal, and a number of people would rather have Matsui, even at the same contract.  Though Damon *could* play LF, perhaps even be average there.  Johnson is also similar if not greater with the bat than Matsui, and is 5 years younger, and could play the field if needed (e.g. Teix misses a few weeks with injury).  People don’t want him for a (reportedly) *cheaper* contract.

Of course, people love zombies…

Do they really have $17 to spare now and next year?

Re: Evil Scott Boras:

Some agents are the bad guys, some are the chummy ones.  Boras is clearly the bad guy, and obviously in the end it worked out money-wise for A-Rod.  But I seriously doubt everything that happened was part of the plan. 

No agent is going to tell his client, “You’re going to get richer, but only if you grovel.  Here’s how it plays out…”  And announcing the opt-out during the World Series was an obvious PR blunder.  If Boras really knows his clients he should know that A-Rod is way over-sensitive to negativity.  Boras f’ed up.  But sometimes the team that makes more errors wins the game.

As much as Pettitte does probably.

Ah, came up through the Yankee system. Gotcha.

I think they might be skittish on anything long term right now.  They are probably resigned to Jeter not getting a paycut and Mo is going to get another contract and Joba/Hughes will hopefully be getting expensive.  No Holliday could have been (implicitly) the price of Teixeira.

If they don’t top 5/$82.5m for Holliday, then the budget is real.

No agent is going to tell his client, “You’re going to get richer, but only if you grovel.  Here’s how it plays out…” And announcing the opt-out during the World Series was an obvious PR blunder.

I don’t think there was some sort of dastardly plot, but Boras might have said “I screwed up; I’ll take a hit publicly and if you get in touch with them through someone else, things could work out.”

Yeah, probably not playing 11 dimensional chess, but able to recover from a screwup reasonably well.

‘I don’t think there was some sort of dastardly plot, but Boras might have said “I screwed up; I’ll take a hit publicly and if you get in touch with them through someone else, things could work out.” ‘

This, sure.  But MC in [7] seemed to be suggesting that maybe it WAS all part of the plan.

Do they really have $17 to spare now and next year?

If not I have $17 in my wallet…oh, *million*...

I had a bunch of reasons, but mainly there’s the “this is too good to be true” aspect.  If Cashman thinks (and can convince Hal), that this deal is a bargain, they may be willing to exceed the budget.  I’m sure they can *afford* to spend another $17M, just a matter if they want to.

If Holliday signs for ~5/$85M somewhere other than the Yanks, I’m going to start believing the conspiracy theory theory that the Yanks are trying to avoid troubles with the next CBA.  The reason I don’t buy that is that they players union has to love the Yanks.

I have never understood why people are so in awe of Boras. His client list? Awesome. Scott Boras can definitely sell the Mark Teixeiras of the world. Big f’n deal… who among the thousands of attorneys reading this site couldn’t do this? OK, on the serious side… who among the current crop of experienced agents couldn’t do this? What value does Boras add that another agent wouldn’t? Three-ring binders?

I know we don’t have access to the truth here, but people in the media act like Boras can throw some jedi mind trick on GMs and get them to overpay for mediocre guys. Well, ask Jason Varitek how much money he left on the table at Boras’ suggestion. He rejected arbitration and the typical $10 mil he would have gotten, only to wind up with a 2x5m take-it-or-leave-it deal. As for those GMs who overpay Boras clients, I scarcely doubt they do so because Boras is on the phone. They have other reasons, namely their own quiet desperation in which they live and work.

Am I missing something? Because all I see is smoke, mirrors, and a client list that would sell itself.

What’s a WAR going for this winter?  If it’s $4, and Holliday will produce - hmm, no, I don’t have a good argument for him averaging 4 WAR/y over five years.  Maybe I can get to “not a steal”.

Am I missing something? Because all I see is smoke, mirrors, and a client list that would sell itself.

That’s all I see, although throwing out big numbers helps a GM sell to the media whatever actually gets paid out.  Also Boras is an organization, probably more so than other agents, so due diligence might be more efficient.

Derek should understand that he need The Yankees as much as The Yankees need him and that The Yankees were very fair to him with his last contract.  If I’m Cash I say: 3yrs, $48M and that’s my final offer.

If they don’t top 5/$82.5m for Holliday, then the budget is real.

Agreed. 

But I think they’ll top that and sign Holliday.

Am I missing something? Because all I see is smoke, mirrors, and a client list that would sell itself.

(Release all numbers are used for illustration) Pretty sure what Boras is good at is setting the range.  That is, maybe you’ll have player X who really *should* get a deal like 2/20.  Boras would come out VERY early and start with the concept that his player is “worth” 5/80.  So the perception of the player would shift, and teams may start the bidding at 3/40 instead, and eventually his player would sign for like 4/60.  Quite a bit less than he was asking for, but significantly more than the player was worth.

The thing is, that worked really well from the early 90’s until about 5 or 6 years ago.  Most front-offices were dumb, swayed by things like RBI, ignorant of defence, and easy to play off one another.  However, in the last several years, FO’s are getting increasingly more intelligent.  Epstein and Cashman obviously, but lots of others as well.  So Boras says, “my client is worth 5/80”, and teams say, “2/20”.  When Boras persists, they go on to do other things, and eventually when he comes back with, “my client really wants to player here”, they say, “okay, 1/8 or 2/14”.

Boras’s reputation I think was well earned.  However, just like with ballplayers, being excellent for 10 years, ending 5 years ago, doesn’t mean you are excellent now.

[61] If the client list sells itself maybe you’ll clamor for Willie Bloomquist. He got him a high-paying contract - Do you think that was easy?

[66] I think you put it well.  A lot of teams are just smarter now so they don’t get roped into his game as often. 

Here is an example from Davidoff:

The last number the #Yankees floated to Johnny Damon was 2 years, $14 million. Scott Boras wanted two years, $26 million for Damon.

67: Bloomquist’s highest-ever salary is $1.4m, so I really am not sure what you’re talking about.

[62] I think before the Lackey signing it was a little under $4M.  After I’m not sure, but also as FanGraphs pointed out most of the “big names” were still out there.  Figgins was what $12M/yr?  Fans project him for a little more than 4 WAR next year, so $3M per, Holliday they project at 5.7 WAR, so $17M. 

For a team like the Yankees “only” paying market-value for a player like Holliday may be a bargin.  I think that’s one of the things Cashman is trying to do; pay below market on complementary pieces like relievers and bench players, so he has some money to pay above market on stars.  Whether or not it works out in this case…

But MC in [7] seemed to be suggesting that maybe it WAS all part of the plan.

I think that’s a bit of an overinterpretation, but whatever.  This is what I meant to suggest:

1) It worked out just fine for Boras and A-Rod.  Doesn’t it always seem to work out just fine for Boras and his clients?  Could it really be that it’s all just an endless series of screw-ups followed by luck-outs?

2) This is what I do think is ALWAYS part of the plan with Boras—“No matter what happens, (insert client’s name here), when all is said and done anything that makes you look bad was all my fault.  OK?  So just relax and let me do what I do.”

Agreed w/ 68, Mike K puts it well. It was a fun ride, but good god, surely it has to be over.

I have a tough time believing Boras would make himself look bad in order for one client to cash in

Umm, dude, that’s the job description.

It’s one thing to play the jerk/hardass in order to get your client rich; it’s quite another to come off semi-incompetent as part of some ruse to make yourself look bad in order to make your client look good.  I highly doubt that small fiasco was planned by Boras.

If Holliday means no Cliff Lee sweepstakes a year from now, or no other shiny FA then I’d pass. But money is a different thing when it comes to the Yankees.

Imagine splitting up the lefties and righties and getting this lineup

Jeter SS
Johnson DH
Teixeira 1B
A-Rod 3B
Posada C
Holliday LF
Granderson RF
Swisher RF
Cano 2B

Unstoppable.

[75] That does look ridiculous when you actually see it on paper (screen).

Horrible if accurate: Damon invested heavily in Stanford Financial, not sure he can pay his mortgage this month.

I have never understood why people are so in awe of Boras.

I’m not in awe of him, but I do think he’s good at his job and I do think that his job is just a little more complicated than selling Ferrarris to the idle rich.  My point is that all the “Boras f’d up again” stuff we hear is just the flip side of the evil genius media treatment that you’re complaining about.  Seems to me that neither portrait is close to accurate.

I think that’s one of the things Cashman is trying to do; pay below market on complementary pieces like relievers and bench players, so he has some money to pay above market on stars.

Isn’t this the way it is for everybody?  If you don’t want to overpay an elite free agent, then you can pretty much forget about signing any elite free agents.  Isn’t that also the argument about the extra value of getting 5 WAR out of one player instead of 2.5 WAR each out of two guys?

[77] Check the dateline.  Pretty sure caveman’s assets have been unfrozen by now.

[78] But both can be true.  He can be a mean nasty manipulative winning bastard, and also screw up sometimes.  If he didn’t ever screw up, he’d be perfect, which means he’d be our Evil God and we would have to worship him or fear his wrath.

Figgins was what $12M/yr?

9M I believe.

It’s one thing to play the jerk/hardass in order to get your client rich; it’s quite another to come off semi-incompetent as part of some ruse to make yourself look bad in order to make your client look good.

Boras really only played “the fool” for A-Rod, who is his signature client.

One plausible scenario is that Boras realized that he overestimated the market for Alex and underestimated the Yankees’ resolve not to make the first move at a rapprochement.

So perhaps he decided that if Alex took the initiative to restart the negotiations, using the ubiquitous Goldman Sachs as the conduit, the Yankees could be convinced to re-engage because it was in their financial interests to do so.

The cost to Boras was the meme that his most important client thought that he had overplayed his hand. Did that really harm Boras’s reputation? No, at least not in an enduring way.  Relatedly it didn’t even do any real damage to his relationship with A-Rod, because a year and a half later, when he needed medical advice about his hip condition, Boras was integrally involved in the decision making process.

“the ubiquitous Goldman Sachs”

I forgot about that.  THEY are the evil geniuses.  The A-Rod thing was the magician’s feint.  “Look over here!...while we get rich by ruining the economy.”

“[77] Check the dateline.”

D’oh.  Where’s a corner without lab equipment I can go sit in?

But both can be true.

OK, let me clarify.  There are those who think he IS our perfect Evil God and that we must always bow down before him.  OTOH, there are those who think he does nothing EXCEPT screw up.  The two groups cannot both be correct.

And on an only peripherally related topic since I’m starting to have a little trouble keeping everything straight, let me just say that I hope that nobody who doesn’t want the Yankees to give Damon more than 2/$14M is interested in DeRosa at 3/$21M.

[86] I’m reasonably sure that Boras is not, perfect, evil or a god.

“DeRosa at 3/$21M”

Has there ever really been such a thing as a “supersub”?  Here are some random parameters, feel free to tweak—played in 120+ games, no more than 40 starts at any one position, OPS+ of 90 or better, in TWO or more seasons.  I would accept some give in the “no more than 40 games” due to an injury, but not too much—otherwise they’re not really a supersub but an injury replacement.

Has there ever really been such a thing as a “supersub”?

This is probably the prototype.  Can’t think of anyone else off the top of my head though.

Baseball Reference: Tony Phillips

If pitching is next for the Yankees who’s on tap.  Besides the injured guys Sheets, Bedard is there anyone out there that is an upgrade?

DeRosa: 1yr, $4M or 2yrs $7M
You can make one take it or leave it offer to Jeter this time in 2010 (assume he’s coming off a year better than 2008 but not as good as 2009)- what is the offer?

[89]  Hm, thanks.  He could hit some, too.

2 off topic questions:

Does anyone else fell like this Lowell situation is dragging on for too long, and that he most likely will need surgery on his thumb? I don´t think it changes too much what team Boston will put on the field, right now it is only 3 million more.

Also, we always hear (read) that OBP is more valuable than slugging, but maybe someone can tell me which slugging is better, power or high batting average? Just as an toy example, which player would be more valuable a 100/400/400 (1hr, 3BB per 10 PA) or a 400/400/400 (4 singles an nothing else)? My guess is it would be player 1, and the answer probably depends on the run enviroment.

Latest MLBR reported that the Yanks turned down 2 years at 11 mill. If that is right, I’m convinced they are intent on letting Damon walk and have been for some time. If that amount is right then it’s pretty reasonable price for what Damon has delivered the past couple of years and the term now would be pretty short as well.  I’m not convinced that Holliday is off the radar.  What’s taking him so long to accept the Cards offer if he really is open to continuing there?

I seriously hope the Yanks don’t trade for a National League mediocre so-called “innings eater”. At this point, unless they would make a major, major type of trade for a Josh Johnson, then the only recourse would be to invest in a re-hab type and we just let one walk out the door.  I think they better concentrate on the Cuban lefty.

1 HR per 10 PA is a spectacular rate. Also, just because the HR always leads to at least 1 run scoring it’s probably more valuable.

Lowell: nobody is reporting any hard facts as to why this is dragging on, so speculation is taking hold that there’s a problem. Apparently that’s a lot more fun than speculating that he might be on a fishing trip or a Mediterranean cruise. I don’t see any reason to jump to conclusions either way.

adding… unlike free agents, Lowell wasn’t sitting home by the phone.

[96] .400 batting average is also pretty spetacular. And while the HR is better than the single, the singles are better than the walks. But this is just a toy. I just got curious. We know not all obp was born the same, but is the same true for slugging.

And maybe the question is moot for baseballplayers, I´m not sure slugging can vary significantly in how it is produced.

Ok, so leaving the laziness aside, checking TT run values, the player with the HR is (significantly) more valuable than the singles hitter for every run enviroment tabled.

Maybe the question really is are there any players that look similar from a obp/slg quick view but are very different in how they get there, and do people value them differently?