SG- Do you have situational P/PA? I can’t find it anywhere, and I’m wondering if the bad performances with RISP can be lined up with Kevin Long’s tenure.

And 15 of the first 21 games are on the road, so what’re you going to do?  Like you said, the Yanks will be fine.  Sabathia and Texeira will heat up as the season goes along.  A-Rod will be back soon.  And the Wang situation will be fixed one way or another.

On another topic, I’m not sure if people have noticed but it looks like the scouting report on Brett Gardner has become very specific. High strikes all the time.. and Gardners basically hit weak liners and fly balls. If he’s going to survive, he’s going to have show that he can hit balls like that to the wall, or heavin forbid, over it.

If he’s going to survive, he’s going to have show that he can hit balls like that to the wall, or heavin forbid, over it.

Not true, though he’s going to have to do something other than he has been.  I’ll freely admit I don’t know all the mechanics of hitting a high strike.  But I’m pretty sure you can hit solid LD that don’t have to be to the wall or over.

I’d like to point out again; Gardner still has a LD% over 20 (21.7) but his BABIP is .277.  He’s been unlucky so far, at least a little bit.  He and Swisher are tied (players with at least 30 PA) on the Yankees for LD% but Swisher’s BABIP is .333, right around where it is supposed to be.

Gardner’s BABIP will likely regress to be right around where it should be, given enough time.  I understand that no one wants to wait for that, especialy with the Yanks only at .500.  But offense hasn’t really been their problem so far (yes, there are some key spots they should have scored more).

I’d like to point out again; Gardner still has a LD% over 20 (21.7) but his BABIP is .277.

Take a look at his gamelog on Fangraphs.  Gardner’s hit 1 LD in the past week - thats 18 AB’s - and K’d 5 times with no BB’s. That lines up with what I think I’ve been seeing watching the games.. I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as looking at his LD%, adding .120 and waiting for things to get better for Gardner.

I don’t think it’s as cut and dry as looking at his LD%, adding .120 and waiting for things to get better for Gardner.

I never said it was cut and dried.  He’s definitely hit fewer LD of late (his LD% was over 23 last week).  I still think he’s been somewhat unlucky.  Maybe this week he gets a little lucky, and some balls that shouldn’t be hits are.  The main point of waiting is that there is *some* evidence he is (or has been) doing positive things at the plate w/o results; LD% being good, and 4.09 P/PA is good.  To me he isn’t completely overmatched; I think is LD% and P/PA would both be lower.

Now, that DOES mean that he has to make some adjustments.  Perhaps one of them is handling the high-strike.  I just don’t feel he’s quite as far away as his OPS may indicate.  If he doesn’t make those adjustments or start getting some good luck soon - or if the Yankees don’t go on a long winning-streak at least - he may not have a chance to make those adjustments.  And of course it is possible too he never will. 

But I’ve read a number of wishes on this site for players the Yankees shouldn’t have gotten rid of, when they put up better numbers elsewhere than in small-samples here.  Perhaps in a year or two when Gardner is in Minnesota or Milwalkee, we’ll be wishing we had his speed, and cursing Cashman for getting rid of him for a half-year of Cameron (who will likely flop after showing up).

Is our farm system any good?  Because I think we’re really gonna need to fill holes with cheap players going forward.  I really think that The Yankee budget that Cashman has to work with will be close to $150M in 2011.  Neeedless to say, with all of the big contracts on the books, guys like Jeter, Posada, and Rivera will have to take big paycuts to stay and cheap replacements from the farm will have to replace guys like Damon, Matsui, and Pettitte.  I can see the CC equivalent in 2010 getting $20M and in 2001 getting $16M or so.

I never said it was cut and dried.  He’s definitely hit fewer LD of late (his LD% was over 23 last week).  I still think he’s been somewhat unlucky.

I think where we may be disagreeing is that, when looking at BABIP/LD%, I think it’s incorrect to take the player out of context when seeing if the guy has been unlucky. Swisher’s a good example - I certainly think his 2008 was a result of some bad luck and that we should expect to see a 115 OPS+ corner OF while he’s here.

Gardner on the other hand, has a much more limited skill set. He’s trying to hit groundballs and beat them out, all while trying not to strike out too much. To me, recently, he’s look helpless on 2 seam fastballs that break over the inside corner on lefties, and hasn’t been able to consistently hit high strikes.

Perhaps in a year or two when Gardner is in Minnesota or Milwalkee, we’ll be wishing we had his speed, and cursing Cashman for getting rid of him for a half-year of Cameron (who will likely flop after showing up).

I’m not saying Gardner should be banished after 20 games worth of PA’s. I’m saying, like for all rookies, that the pitchers have adjusted, and Gardner needs to adjust accordingly. He needs to hit those high strikes for line drives and not easy fly balls. Or maybe he can get really good at bunting them for base hits? I’m not sure what the answer is, but I am less encouraged over the past week.

SG—

Thanks for keeping it in perspective.  Miserable effin’ weekend. 

Needless to say, with all of the big contracts on the books, guys like Jeter, Posada, and Rivera will have to take big paycuts to stay…
I think it’s pretty safe to say neither Posada nor Mariano will be on the Yankees beyond their current contracts.  The safe money is on Mo retiring and Posada may have some DH AB’s still in the tank but if it’s unlikely the Yankees will want or need him if he’s inclined to keep playing.

Probably right, although Mo is done after 2010 season if I’m not mistaken.  I think there’s a strong chance he is still an excellent pitcher at that time.  Either way, they will have to be replaced.  It seems like every pitcher the Red Sox bring up throws 95+ MPH- I just hope we have the farm system that we should expect of the greatest organization in sports.  CC and Teixeira will be excellent, if not overpriced, players for us for some years but I think it’s time to realize that success going forward will be more predicated on home-grown talent or cheap acquisitions.

My bold prediction:  The Yankees will beat the Red Sox at least once this season.  Book it.

If we only beat the sox once this season, I might cry.

My bold prediction:  The Yankees will beat the Red Sox at least once this season.  Book it.

If we only beat the sox once this season, I might cry.

Don’t worry - they’ll beat the Red Sox four times.  In October.

Probably right, although Mo is done after 2010 season if I’m not mistaken.  I think there’s a strong chance he is still an excellent pitcher at that time.

A strong chance?  I hope so.  He will be 41 at the end of the the ‘10 season.  I think if he’s got anything left, every effort will be made to sign him.  I know I’d rather have 2 years of aging, overpriced, declining Mo than go through the same with Jeter who will probably require 3-4 years if not more. 

True ‘nuff about the farm system.  Hughes going 7 solid in Det. would be a nice start.  There certinaly seems to have been some farm system overhyping in recent years.  Was sorry to see nothing became of Humberto Sanchez—the Sheffield trade was the right move nonetheless.

I wouldn’t be shocked to see Melancon be Joba of 2007.

I’m still wondering if anyone else thinks having both Melky and Gardner is redundant.

I’m saying, like for all rookies, that the pitchers have adjusted, and Gardner needs to adjust accordingly.

I agree and if he doesn’t adjust he has no value as a starter, and little value as a bench player.

I’m not sure what the answer is, but I am less encouraged over the past week.

I guess it depends on how you want to interpret the data.  One way to interpret it is that the numbers (e.g. OPS) were correct, and the LD% was an anomoly.  Perhaps easily fieldable balls that would by “fliners” but FanGraphs has as line-drives, and now Gardner is regressing to where he should be in that metric. 

The way I’ve been taking it is that Gardner was unlucky for the first 50 PA or so, and that now he is in a slump, which isn’t unusual for any player.  But for a rookie player on a team expected to win is definitely not a good thing.  Which view is right?  The only way we’re going to find out is if Gardner gets sufficient PA to filter out the noise.

I’m not saying Gardner should be banished after 20 games worth of PA’s.

I probably lumped you in w/ others who are ready to get rid of him.  My bad.

I’m still wondering if anyone else thinks having both Melky and Gardner is redundant.

Sure, but there’s no one down on the farm who would be a big upgrade so I don’t see what to do about it this early.

and even the Swisher/Damon/Nady outfield is no longer an option.

Is our farm system any good?

Depends on how you define “good” I guess.  They still have a lot of pitching depth.  I think a number of the pitchers in AAA and probably even a few in AA would be starters in the majors for a lot of organizations.  Not saying they would be *good* starters, but still starters.  That means we should have a lot of pieces to trade.

Position-player wise…not so good.  AAA has AJax, *maybe* Eric Duncan (if his ability to not K as much is real and not just SSS), and Miranda (DH or trade-bait).  Besides that Kevin Russo (maybe a decent UIF) and depth for the majors.  AA Colin Curtis may have 4th OF/average starter for a few years upside.  Frank Cervelli probably does enough defensively to be a backup C for several years, jury is still out on if he can hit enough to start.  Veccionacci’s defense plays at 3rd, but not sure if he’ll even hit enough to start at AAA.

Tampa has some decent talent, most notably Montero and Romine.  Brad Suttle I’ve read a few places that still project him as a starting 3B in the majors (not a star but), but he needs to stay healthy.  Brandon Laird can hit the ball a ton, but his best position may be 1B.  At low-A are Angeline and Lassiter (who they seem to have moved to 3B).  Both are very toolsy, very young, and both have started hitting, at least enough for their current positions.  Obviously several years away.  Tim Battle is on the DL and will either repeat at Tampa or go to Trenton; he’s definitely an all-tools, little to show for it player so far.  But I read (Chad Jennings?) that he’s looked a lot better of late, and may finally be putting the talent to use.

I think I’ve put everything I know about Yankee “prospects” in this post.  Hopefully it helps enough to let you ask questions of people who really know the answers!

One thing, besides the fact that we suck, why didn’t Berroa get any playing time at 3b in the minors?  It must have occurred to someone in the front office that Ransom sucked and it might be necessary to try another direction so when Ransom went down they used Berroa with a grand total of 1/3 inning playing time at 3B.

I’d rather have melky get the starts and let brett be the pr. At least Melky has some HR power. Brett has no power, swings at everything, doesn’t bunt well, isn’t rangey, doesn’t have a great arm, he just doesn’t bring very much to the table other than his wheels, and his wheels don’t bring much to the table if he’s not on base, which he never is.

Uhm, the fact that he bats leadoff makes him a leadoff hitter by definition.

I was feeling a little silly with my repeated snark about Jeter not being able to hit because he’s batting first in the lineup, I feel vindicated if the MSM still thinks it’s an issue.

Celzic sounds like some of the posters on this site.

I think you are over thinking the negativity, I think most of it is tongue in cheek, maybe a little frustration, or at least most of my glum comments is just reverse mojo and joking around.

Melancon looked as good as his line? I couldn’t bear to watch or listen (or chatter) to most of the game/series. Maybe the Yankees should do something with their spring training, they’ve been getting off to slow starts pretty much like forever.

I’m still wondering if anyone else thinks having both Melky and Gardner is redundant.

I think the issue is getting a somewhat credible right swinging OF, Melky or Gardner can be the defensive sub, but having someone face lefthanded pitching or pinch hitting now and then would be nice.

The weekend disaster and all, I’m okay with the Yankees where they are, I expected a better start and performance, but I think they are okay where they are at, and the 18 games at least showed some of the pluses and minuses of the current roster, who in the bullpen can be used and how, the starting pitching is holding up, most of the bats are doing okay, and the 8th and 9th hitter aren’t much good, but as long as they stay in the bottom of the lineup the harm is minimized as much as possible.

Let’s go over .500 record!

I’m still wondering if anyone else thinks having both Melky and Gardner is redundant.

Yeah, I do.  I’m not sure Shelley Duncan is really the answer, but it might be nice to have someone on the bench who has a shot of poking one over the wall. 
A better fit might be a Greg Dobbs/Greg Norton/Mike Lamb type in lieu of Pena, in other words someone with a little pop who can also play 3B. 

Mostly what I think is that Brett Gardner doesn’t belong in the major leagues.
I’ve never been bullish on him and nothing I’ve seen over the last 3 weeks has changed my mind about that.  Players with his skillset just can’t strike out every 5 PA’s while never walking. 

I’m willing to be pleasantly surprised over the next few months, and maybe the return of A-Rod hides the CF problem a bit, but watching BG hit makes me want to throw something.

Yes I’d much rather have Melky get the majority of the starts.  Gardner has no power, doesn’t walk and srikes out too much.  He has a strikeout to walk ratio of 3 1/2 to 1 for his ML career.  Is that going to change at the age of 25 1/2?  Has there ever been a useful singles hitter with that kind of ratio?  And I don’t know if it matters but the majority of his “line drives” seemed visually to be more of the bloop/soft liner variety.

Too bad Jackson is K’ing so much, it’d be nice to call him up, but he obviously needs some more time. I’ve always believed that Gardner is not a Major League ballplayer, but I don’t mind them keeping him up for now. But they have got to stop starting him, at least until Melky cools off and he’s got to lay down bunts more often.

I’d like to see Miranda come up at some point, at 26 he’s pretty much done developing, he could be a decent pinch hitting power bat.

Yeah, I fear calling up A-Jax now would yield similar results as Melky’s disastrous 2005 cup of joe.

It’s a tough thing the Yankees have to do here. Ideally, they’d be 5 or 6 games above .500 and they could live with letting the solution present itself.  Obviouslhy when Rodriguez returns, this will problem won’t seem nearly as bad. Ransom/Berroa/Pena have to be the worst offensive (and perhaps defensive) contributors thus far, and they’ll be replaced with likely what will end up being the best.

In situations like these, I wonder if Cashman and Girardi (and other GMs/managers for that matter) do something similar to what people do when they go into a casino - you go in with say, $100, and tell yourself thats all your going to gamble. Maybe they pick a certain number of PA’s for Gardner, and say “if we don’t see something that is a cause for optimism, we’ve got to go in another direction.”

Yes, with Nady on the shelf and Damon needing days off, Melky will be in there quite regularly, but I’m talking more along the lines of making a move for someone like Cameron (although the Brewers are ridiculous hot right now, aren’t they?)

Just for fun, a revised ZIPS projection for Cano, courtesy of Dan Szymborski at BBTF:

“ZiPS Projection, 2009: 296/335/474

Year-to-Date: 373/415/627
ZiPS Projection, Rest of Year: 299/340/483

Total Projected, 2009: 308/350/500”

How did Melancon look stuff wise?  Could he be the guy with Bruney to set up Mo and if Marte starts pitching well again then we might be ok in the bullpen.

I thought he looked great, especially in the first inning. Threw 94, induced weak contact. He had some guys swinging at pitches out of the zone, so the movement was obviously pretty good. Other than the walk, I would say he pitched well. HBPs happen and the hit was a ground ball that I think Jeter usually gets.

Maybe they pick a certain number of PA’s for Gardner, and say “if we don’t see something that is a cause for optimism, we’ve got to go in another direction.”

Something like that, I imagine.  I don’t know why Melky doesn’t constitute another direction, albeit not a huge upgrade.  The Brewers are not at all hot, BTW, though Cameron certainly is (OPS over 1000). 

I’m not sure what my rational basis is, but I feel that if the team is still underperforming—or is just, say, 4 games behind the Redsox on July 1—it will be because the pitching staff has underperformed and not because the number 9 hitter is screwing the pooch.

Yeah, I had already determined after the bottom of the eighth that Melancon was definitely going to be my one silver lining about the game. He looked quite good, and he pitched his way out of bases loaded, no outs as if he was facing the Yankees out there!

the hit was a ground ball that I think Jeter usually gets.

Ha.

Regarding bullpen, why has E. Ramirez regressed, if he has. Just hitters having a good book on him now, or has his stuff/control deteriorated?

Wait, they didn’t give Berroa a whole bunch of time at 3rd base in the minors?  Wha?

Yeah I really wanted to love Edwar and when he’s good he’s good but when he’s bad, and those times are starting to predominate, he’s horrid.

Has anyone asked the powers that be why they didn’t give Berroa PT at 3B.  Its kind of unfair to throw a guy into a Sox series with a grand total of 1/3 inning pro ball at 3B.

I may be POOMAing—someone more knowledgable should weigh in—but it strikes me re. edwar that you can’t succeed relying on your change-up that much.  The whole point of a change-up is its contrast with your faster stuff to throw off the hitter’s timing.  Does he have a breaking pitch to speak of?

Most of Edwar’s badness comes from that disaster of a game against Cleveland. He walked three guys and gave up 2 HRs. He didn’t have it that day but they needed innings. His control is a little off, but I don’t think he’s worth worrying about. I just don’t think he’s ever going to be really good like I had hoped. If Ellsbury had been called out like he should have been (or you know, not put on by Jorge’s catcher interference), he probably would have gotten out of Boston without giving up a run.

Celzic sounds like some of the posters on this site.

SG trying to get himself in trouble with his “customers” I guess, but this did make me laugh.

I’m still wondering if anyone else thinks having both Melky and Gardner is redundant.

Doesn’t pretty much everyone think that having both Melky and Gardner is redundant?  I’d say that Villainx summed up the consensus pretty well in #21.

I’d rather have melky get the starts and let brett be the pr

In the last five games, they’ve each started three.  I expect this will continue, at least until Nady is back.  Cabrera might be off to a good start, but he still strikes me as somebody who wears down and/or gets his weaknesses exposed when he plays every day.  Even if all Gardner does is keep Cabrera fresh and hungry, that’s still something.

On the bright side, my son went four strong innings for the win in his last start, even though he didn’t have squat for stuff.  The fastball wasn’t, the curve didn’t, the change-up was a little too flat.  But he still somehow managed to only allow two runs (one earned) on four hits (only one of which was hit hard).  The kid seems to actually be learning how to pitch a little bit.  And he smacked a two-run double in the first inning.  I guess all these years of screaming at him are finally starting to pay off.

I wonder what the bullpen ERA’s look like without the Cleveland 22 run game and the Boston 16 run game.

His WHIP is over 2.00 even with the Cleveland outing.  I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s been, but really if we’re counting on him to be something more than the 4th option out of the pen then we’ve got trouble.

If Cabrera could only lay off that fast ball in his eyes he might be halfway decent.  Maybe KL should visit him in the off season

I don’t think he’s as bad as he’s been, but really if we’re counting on him to be something more than the 4th option out of the pen then we’ve got trouble.

I don’t think he is more than the 4th option. At this point, he might be the last option, which I think he’s capable of being. I can’t think of anyone in the pen he’s worse than, even Marte has pitched better than he has.

I’m not sure what my rational basis is, but I feel that if the team is still underperforming—or is just, say, 4 games behind the Redsox on July 1—it will be because the pitching staff has underperformed and not because the number 9 hitter is screwing the pooch.

I’m not sure what your rational basis is either, but that sounds like pretty cogent analysis to me.

The whole point of a change-up is its contrast with your faster stuff to throw off the hitter’s timing.

You don’t have to be Eric Gagne in his prime to have an effective change-up.  If the change was only effective in contrast to your harder stuff, then nobody would ever throw it on the first pitch, and nobody would have ever heard of Jamie Moyer.  The point of a change-up is to throw a pitch that looks like a fastball out of your hand, but takes longer than it should to reach the plate, and therefore throws off the hitter’s timing.  The magnitude of the speed differential is less important than the “sell” and the location.  Good hitters hit high change-ups even if they get fooled on them.

If the change was only effective in contrast to your harder stuff, then nobody would ever throw it on the first pitch, and nobody would have ever heard of Jamie Moyer.

IIRC, Catfish Hunter used to have only three pitches; slow, slower, and slowest.  Edwar’s FB is around 90MPH.  I think his main thing is control of both pitches, where he’s hitting corners with his FB and his change stays down.  Sure, he may only be a 4th/5th option.  But I have to wonder how much distance there is for most teams, between their #3 out of the pen and their #4.  Probably more than between Edwar and Melancon/Bruney.

I’m not sure what my rational basis is, but I feel that if the team is still underperforming—or is just, say, 4 games behind the Redsox on July 1—it will be because the pitching staff has underperformed and not because the number 9 hitter is screwing the pooch.

Since you could make a stong argument they would have 4-6 more wins if the pitching had just been average in several games so far this year, I think this is perfectly rational.  Yanks aren’t that bad off right now.  I’m not skipping for joy with where they are, but all things considering…what did Billy Beane say once?  Something along the lines of the first half of the season is figuring out what you need to get for the second half?  As long as they are within 5-6 games of first by July 1, it will be okay.

While I have said I’d like Edwar to do well, I have had strong doubts. Those doubts haven’t gone away.

Is Melancon innings-limited (more than the standard reliever) by virtue of being young/coming off recent surgery?  Fangraphs isn’t loading but I don’t think he was in a lot of games last year.

Scratch that, Fangraphs finally came up (thanks, ads.doubleclick), and shows that last year he had 25.1 IP in A+, 49.2 in AA, and 20 in AAA for 95 total.  Seems like a lot, though of course for him that wasn’t a lot of pitches, and mostly unstressful ones I suspect.

He threw 95 innings in 44 appearances last year.  Not sure if that counts post-season or not.  So you are correct that he didn’t get into many games, but innings-wise he was fine.  I see no reason he can’t get *at least* 50-60 more innings this year

Ah, beat me by a minute.

According to the baseball cube, Melancon threw 95 innings at three levels in 2008.  Can’t imagine that he’d be running up against an innings limit this year, unless they suddenly decided to turn him into a starter.  I’m not aware of any equivalent to the Verducci +30 “rule” for relievers, anyway.

Can’t imagine that he’d be running up against an innings limit this year, unless they suddenly decided to turn him into a starter.

Or a 70’s style closer.

I have 70 innings or maybe games in my head as what one can get out of a reliever - I would naively think young arms would be at greater risk at that level than seasoned ones, but who knows.  95 IP - I wonder again why Melancon isn’t starting.  He’s got 3 pitches - maybe some questions about his delivery suggest he should relieve.

No one was slower then Stu Miller who was pretty damn good.  But Edwar just gives up too many HRs.

I have 70 innings or maybe games in my head as what one can get out of a reliever…

I blame Tony LaRussa.

Any word on whether or not Damon will be in there tonight?

Ok, I see Proctor threw 100 then 86 IP for Torre, I guess “can get” is relative.

SG- Do you have situational P/PA? I can’t find it anywhere, and I’m wondering if the bad performances with RISP can be lined up with Kevin Long’s tenure.

I’ll give the same answer I’ve given everytime you’ve asked this question.  No.

I’d like to point out again; Gardner still has a LD% over 20 (21.7) but his BABIP is .277.

I think it was Eric Seidman who wrote a good article about the problem with looking at LD%.  A Brett Gardner line drive is not the same as an Albert Pujols line drive.  I can buy the fact that Gardner has been slightly unlucky, but I don’t think we can necessarily assume that his BABIP should be LD% + .12 like we’d expect of the league average player.  I will reiterate again that we haven’t seen enough PAs for Gardner to make any definitive assessment about his ability.

If we only beat the sox once this season, I might cry.

I did say at LEAST once.  If pressed, I think they may be able to beat them twice even.

I think you are over thinking the negativity, I think most of it is tongue in cheek, maybe a little frustration, or at least most of my glum comments is just reverse mojo and joking around.

I understand that, and I tend to do it myself.  My problem last night was with one particular poster who felt the need to use the word fuck in just about every single post.  There are people who read this site at work who have to deal with word filters and that may block them from reading the site.  Anyway, I was a little heated last night and overreacted, although the person I’m thinking of responded with a post that showed me he’s a jackass who I will no longer pay attention to.  So he can go fuck himself.

I may be POOMAing—someone more knowledgable should weigh in—but it strikes me re. edwar that you can’t succeed relying on your change-up that much.

Doug Jones put together a pretty good relief career with a changeup as his go-to pitch.  18 seasons, 3.30 ERA.

Stu Miller 16 seasons era 3.24 WHIP 1.25

keith foulke

I can buy the fact that Gardner has been slightly unlucky, but I don’t think we can necessarily assume that his BABIP should be LD% + .12 like we’d expect of the league average player.  I will reiterate again that we haven’t seen enough PAs for Gardner to make any definitive assessment about his ability.

I have mentioned several times (I think) “a little unlucky”.  Because also, speedy players tend to outperform the LD+.120 (something I read on hardballtimes but don’t remember by whom).  No, I don’t think he *should* have a .320 BA right now on BIP.  I also think .277 is a little low.  Splitting the middle at .300 may not matter much, but 2-3 more hits is 2-3 more hits.  I definitely agree we haven’t seen enough.  I think there are some here who saw enough with his first PA last year though.  Whatever; a six game winning streak starting tonight would be nice.

Not a reliever, but Frank Viola’s best pitch was a changeup.

A Brett Gardner line drive is not the same as an Albert Pujols line drive.  I can buy the fact that Gardner has been slightly unlucky, but I don’t think we can necessarily assume that his BABIP should be LD% + .12 like we’d expect of the league average player.

Right, and that doesn’t even have to mean that all of Gardner’s line drives are soft.  A Brett Gardner shallow fly ball is not the same as an Albert Pujols shallow fly ball either, unless you’re stupid enough to play your outfield at the same depth for both of them.  It seems to me that a certain kind of hitter is always going to be “unlucky” on balls in play, or at least balls in the air that don’t leave the park.  A 250 foot line drive off of Enrique Wilson’s bat is going to be an out unless it’s pretty well placed, but a 250 foot line drive off of Jim Thome’s bat is a single almost every time.  I wonder if anyone has ever done something as simple as to look for a correlation between HR/AB and BABIP.

Anyway, I was a little heated last night and overreacted, although the person I’m thinking of responded with a post that showed me he’s a jackass who I will no longer pay attention to.

Sorry I missed it.  Well, not really, but now I am curious as to the identity of the jackass in question.  But not curious enough to break my newly minted “no post-hoc game chatter reading” rule.

The first loss really hurt (me).  The failure with the bases loaded immediately followed by Mo giving up a 2-run HR… ouch.

Luckily, I missed most of game 2 and all of game 3.  It’s best that way.  I get… upset.

Good to hear that Melancon is up and pitched well.  Good to hear Hughes is getting a start in place of Wanger.  Good to hear that ARod will be back soon.

“...and the good Lord willing, things will work out.  (I know, write it down).”

Also, it’s worth nothing that Johan Santana’s best pitch is his changeup, although he also has other good pitches. On pure velocity, his fastball isn’t that great (91.9 mph average over the last eight seasons).

Well, not really, but now I am curious as to the identity of the jackass in question.  But not curious enough to break my newly minted “no post-hoc game chatter reading” rule.

I wouldn’t ask anyone to post-hoc read a game chatter.  It’s Weakly Journalist.

I have 70 innings or maybe games in my head as what one can get out of a reliever…

I was scrolling through the FanGraphs leaders (goes back to 1974).  Seems up through the last strike, it was VERY normal for a team to have a reliever with more than 90IP, sometimes more than one.  Starting in the late 80’s (as MC said, blame LaRussa) there was a bit of a downward trend.  But up until 1996 there were still three relievers with more than 100IP.  Now it’s the rarity.

150+ IP for a reliever is probably too much, but I don’t see why 100-120IP isn’t reasonable, if they start out in the minors building towards that.

So Edwar’s problem is location on his “fast ball” or enough of his changes don’t move?  Cause sometimes the guy looks great like that first appearance against the Halos, though the second appearance didn’t go quite so well.  His MiL numbers were off the chart.

I wouldn’t ask anyone to post-hoc read a game chatter.  It’s Weakly Journalist.

I clicked the link this morning to read what had been posted in the morning, and saw the argument near the bottom of the first page.  Like MC, almost sorry I missed it.  And I have a feeling the spelling of his ID was *not* a typo…

So SG assuming Swisher and Damon are both in the lineup how would you apportion ABs to Melky and Gardner?  And about how many PAs would be enough to truly get a handle on Gardner’s worth or lack thereof?

So Edwar’s problem is location on his “fast ball” or enough of his changes don’t move?

Hazarding a guess, but I would think a hanging-change - also known as “batting practice” would have to be one of the easiest pitches to hit, assuming the batter isn’t completely fooled.  I think Edwar leaves a few up - whether it is because it isn’t moving or his release is off I don’t know - and bad things usually happen.  He’s still striking out a ton of batters (9.82/9), but right now walking too many and letting up too many HR.

I think for now put him into some lower-leverage situations, and see if he can get on a run.  There are never any guarantees, but chances are he’ll approach last year’s #‘s on BB and HR, which while you probably don’t want him in many 1 run games, he’s fine for 3-4 run games in any inning.

So Edwar’s problem is location on his “fast ball” or enough of his changes don’t move?

Without looking at the data, I think Edwar’s problem is strike one.  I have a feeling he has a huge split in PAs that start off 1-0 vs. 0-1, although I’m POOMAING and not looking at the data right now.

150+ IP for a reliever is probably too much, but I don’t see why 100-120IP isn’t reasonable, if they start out in the minors building towards that.

I’ve always felt # of appearances is as important as innings pitched.  A season where a pitcher pitches 60 games and 100 innings may not be any more stressful than a season where they pitch 80 games and 80 innings.  I haven’t looked at the empirical data for that though, but I know that for working out, getting days of rest between workouts is as important(or even moreso) as the intensity of the workouts themselves.

And I have a feeling the spelling of his ID was *not* a typo…

You are correct, sir.

So SG assuming Swisher and Damon are both in the lineup how would you apportion ABs to Melky and Gardner?

Well, we know Melky has not hit lefties well historically, so I’d say give Gardner all the PAs against lefties and maybe something like 20% of the PA against righties, and maybe use him to pinch hit for Berroa against righties in the later innings.  I never expected much from Gardner, but I do think he’s better than he’s played.

I wonder if anyone has ever done something as simple as to look for a correlation between HR/AB and BABIP.

I like the idea.  Are you suggesting using HR/AB as a proxy for defensive positioning or as a gauge for how hard a batter hits the ball?  Granted the second will generally cause the defensive to play differently…

So Edwar’s problem is location on his “fast ball” or enough of his changes don’t move?

Or maybe location on his change-up and not enough movement on his fastball?  Any way you slice it, finesse pitchers have less of a margin for error.  SG is right that Santana’s best pitch is his changeup, and his average fastball may not be overwhelming, but he can turn it up a notch a few times a game when he really needs it.  I imagine that most major league hitters would find Edwar’s fastball pretty hittable if they know it’s coming.

I have a feeling the spelling of his ID was *not* a typo…

Wait, has it always been spelled that way and I just didn’t notice, or is this an impersonator?  WJ has always been pretty negative, and often veers toward obnoxious with it, but I don’t remember too much in the way of gratuitous obscenity.

SG- What do you think about the big difference in the pitchers performance when Molino is behind the plate and with Posado behind the plate.

At RAB they break out the numbers: With Po behind the plate (and excluding Wang’s starts, which Posada has caught all of them) the team’s ERA 6.36. is and with Molino behind the plate the team’s ERA is 3.08. I know this are small sample sizes.

Also is worth noting that the pitching staff last season with Molino behind the plate was better than with Posada.

What can we say about this?

Are you suggesting using HR/AB as a proxy for defensive positioning or as a gauge for how hard a batter hits the ball?  Granted the second will generally cause the defensive to play differently…

I was thinking that I’d settle for a proxy for the combination of the two.  After all, you play deep because the guy can hit the ball hard, so it’s not going to be easy to find a simple way to isolate those variables.

At RAB they break out the numbers: With Po behind the plate (and excluding Wang’s starts, which Posada has caught all of them) the team’s ERA 6.36. is and with Molino behind the plate the team’s ERA is 3.08. I know this are small sample sizes.

Check who the pitchers are. I don’t have time to look right now, but if Posada’s caught Wang’s three starts he’s going to look worse than he should.  Wang’s a problem, not the catcher calling his pitches.

Most studies of catcher’s ERA impact have shown that there isn’t much of one.  Whatever differences you’d see to this point are probably sample size issues.

That’s not to say that catchers can’t make some impact on pitchers, just that it’s difficult to ascertain the degree of it.

Also is worth noting that the pitching staff last season with Molino behind the plate was better than with Posada.

It’s probably also worth noting that

a) Molino was Mussina’s personal catcher last season, and Mussina was the most valuable pitcher on the Yankees.
b) Posada misses the bulk of the season

If there is a tangible effect to Posada/Molina’s game calling/pitcher handling ability, it would be at least partially offset by the drop in runs scored.

Also, like you pointed out with Posada catching all of Wang’s starts, there will probably be some selection bias in the data.  With pitchers’ comfort levels etc, their game day catcher is not random.

A while back I used to vent like others purely online.  I’ve toned down a bit - some may say matured but I wouldn’t go that far.
It sucks seeing a team you love so much get rolled over, sometimes in a rather embarrassing fashion.  But hey, perspective is key.  As bad as the weekend series was, they were just 3 games - 3 road games.  I’d rather it happen in April when there is still time to make adjustments.

And I have a feeling the spelling of his ID was *not* a typo…

SG with a 3-pointer from the corner.

I’m so pissed about Bruney.  I know he wasn’t nearly as good as he pitched for those 5 or 6 games.  But he is a good arm, and could have been a big help for what appears to be a crappy pen (which it’s not really).  He says that if it were October, he’d still be pitching and that the injury was a result of too much throwing in between appearances.
If he actually can come back in 2-3 weeks, that’s not so bad at all.

After all, you play deep because the guy can hit the ball hard, so it’s not going to be easy to find a simple way to isolate those variables.

Right.  I’m thinking maybe using a % difference between LD% and BABIP, maybe stripping the HR’s out of SLG to identify the mix of hard hit balls that dont leave the park or something…but I haven’t fully worked out the methodology in my head.

I’ll give the same answer I’ve given everytime you’ve asked this question.  No.

Hmm.. I remember wondering about that but not asking about it.. my bad.

SG with a 3-pointer from the corner

OK, now I get it.

FWIW, I have enjoyed WJ‘s commentary here.  Recently he’s seemed overinvested in the inevitable down moments of the season, but I tend not to read a chatter when the game goes off the rails anyway.

I think for now put him into some lower-leverage situations, and see if he can get on a run.

I have enough of lower leverage situations already.

There are never any guarantees, but chances are he’ll approach last year’s #’s on BB and HR, which while you probably don’t want him in many 1 run games, he’s fine for 3-4 run games in any inning.

Building on or around last year’s number would make EdRam pretty badass I think. I can throw his early season performance to the same small sample size trash heap. And those blowouts put the Yankee bullpen off-kilter.

FWIW, I have enjoyed WJ‘s commentary here.

I understand that, and I know you’re not alone.  That’s why I won’t ban him for now.  I am just going to ignore his posts.  I do think he can make his points without using the F-word all the time though.

I do think he can make his points without using the F-word all the time though.

Can’t you do a Dice-K thing with the f-word?

Venting online is OK.  The F word (flummox?) doesn’t bother me but its reasonable to keep its use to a minimum out of respect to those it might.  What bothers me is booing your own guys when they’re not playing well, even booing guys with limited ability.  The only guys I would boo are those who are both bad and complete jerks.  Mondesi comes to mind right away.

I should add as one who is guilty of venting and complaining of course it doesn’t bother me.  Its a release.  I’ve seen guys in poker games punch the wall and break their hand.  Venting beats that.

If the venting was less unremitting and had more humor in it, and was complimented by cheering in the inevitable up moments in the season, it would stress me out less than it currently does.

So as things go now:

Wang is sorta out of commission for another 10 days,
Bruney will be out for another 10 days, 
Nady is going to be a question mark for another 10 days,
Alex will be back in 10 days or so.

Those are all the big contributors out, right?  Bruney’s injury is a bummer. 

A while back I used to vent like others purely online.

I don’t mind folks venting. It’s funny, and fills up the game chatter. I hardly get to watch any games on TV because I gots no cable, so I follow a lot of post game game chatters. Though if folks have problem with it, and the obscenity in particular, a lil reminder isn’t horrible.

Damon back and Pena getting the start. Woohoo.

I’ve seen guys in poker games punch the wall and break their hand.

You’ve played poker with Kevin Brown?

WJ did nothing wrong except maybe use F too much.  You correctly stated that you over-reacted and we can move on.  WJ had a lot of good posts.

Plus, I expect a lot less extreme venting here on in. The Yankees are going to step it up.

Maybe.

Damon, Melky, Molina, Pena in. Everything’s coming up roses for me and my team and my stripper’s mama.

coming up roses for me and my team and my stripper’s mama.

So everything’s going well or flowers are growing on their graves?  Maybe one and the same?

Damon, Melky, Molina, Pena in.

Matsui DHing or Jorge?

Matsui DH.

The only guys I would boo are those who are both bad and complete jerks.

The only thing I consider boo-worthy is a lack of effort.  For players that is.  Coaches/managers deserve to be booed for stupidity, but not for defensible moves that just don’t happen to work out.

I do think he can make his points without using the F-word all the time though.

I’m reminded of a Doonesbury cartoon during the buildup to the first Iraq War.  BD had re-enlisted, and was having some doubts about his battle-readiness.  He was talking things through with one of his buddies, when he finally blurts out that he doesn’t know if he can remember the right way to use the f-word.  His buddy replied, “Like a comma.”

SSS but Melky’s stats are nice this year- glad he’s getting the nod over Gardner.  Pena is still on the team?  What took Girardi so long?  The handling of the 3B situation has been poor.  I hope Hughes comes up big for us in Detroit and for the rest of the year.  Still think that verdict is out on Cashman and Hughes is a big part of it- we won’t be able to fill spots with star FA’s going forward.  Nor do I want to.  Hopefully it works out but if it doesn’t by June I can see Hank/Hal making a move.  But I think if anyone in the organization is let go they should all be let go.  By that I mean: Girardi, Cashman, Levine, and Trost.  Clean house.

Can I not boo head-first slides into first?  First-inning sac bunts by good hitters?  (Hmm, that’s a shorter list than I expected.)

I hope Hughes comes up big for us in Detroit and for the rest of the year.

A legit point earlier, though.  As piss-poor as the starting pitching has been, where does an effective Hughes slot in going forward?  Barring Wangish meltdowns by CC/AJ, their spots are safe, big contracts equaling long leashes.

If Joba has 1-2 more non-dominant starts, Hughes is solid, and the bullpen continues to scuffle (and let’s say 2 weeks becomes 2 months with Bruney), you know what could happen…