You study the data far more than I do, but I think I would have put Joba at #2 based on this season’s performance and projectability.

The top 3 are the same grade and, essentially, interchangeable.

I know no one who would take Joba or Tabata over Hughes. I would not say they are interchangable.

i’m surprised Kennedy is behind Clippard and is only a B.  Horne > Marquez, but they are very close.

this is just bookkeeping, but Humberto Sanchez falls off the list completely because he is out for the year?  that’s a perfectly valid reason, i am just curious.

Fabi, maybe a short explanation on what the grade means?  Stay at that level, finally developing to potential, etc.

’m surprised Kennedy is behind Clippard and is only a B

Fabian can obviously answer this better than I, but I think it is perfectly valid.  I’m guessing that where they are in the organization has some bearing on where they rank.  Kennedy was just recently promoted to AA, while Clippard was just starting to pitch well at AAA, and then pitched at the ML level with mixed-success.  Plus, Kennedy had some question-marks coming into this season, mostly around his velocity, while Clippard has a good MiL track record.

What surprised me more is that Gardner wasn’t a little higher on the list.  He’s basically doing at AA what Jackson is doing at A+ (less power but more patience), though he is a few years older.  I understand Jackson ranked higher because he is a 5-tool player in an environment that suppresses offense, but I just didn’t expect that big a gap.

Otherwise, perfect timing, what I was kind of hoping for.  I understand that the Yankee farm is pitching heavy, most of top 10 is pitching, and as far as I can see and remember, all starters?  Cool that position players moved from NR to top 10 too.

It’s good to see the top position player prospects, while not great, are all at least up the middle. Is that typical of most farm systems Fabian?

I’m guessing that where they are in the organization has some bearing on where they rank.  Kennedy was just recently promoted to AA, while Clippard was just starting to pitch well at AAA, and then pitched at the ML level with mixed-success.  Plus, Kennedy had some question-marks coming into this season, mostly around his velocity, while Clippard has a good MiL track record.

i don’t disagree with any of this.  i just thought Kennedy’s ceiling (not that he will reach it) was that of a #2 while Clippard is thought more of as a back of the rotation guy.  you obviously have to discount Kennedy for being further away, but i would still think Kennedy is a better “prospect” than Clippard.

who has more trade value?  i think Kennedy does.

Fabian, you are usually pretty accurate, but this effort does not distinguish itself.

Tabata over Chamberlain is wrong but debatable.

But Corona over Betances, Nova etc. begs for an explanation.

Marquez over Horne is likewise very puzzling.

Steven Jackson being on the list is preposterous.

David Robertson and George Kontos are at least in the 15 range.

Brett Gardner is much too low.

Seven White is much to high.

Seth Fortenberry is more a 20’s type prospect.

But more to the point there is a methodology problem, are you grading on potential?

Then why are Reyes and Garcia so low.

Do you have a bias against relievers? Where are Whelan, Robertson, Cox and Melancon?

Are you grading on performance?

Then why are Marquez, Ohlendorf, and Jackson so high. And Vech, Kontos, Smith, and McCutchen so low.

Here is how I would go, leaning toward performance but not discounting potential.

Chamberlain
Tabata
Kennedy
Betances
Clippard
Horne
Marquez
Cervelli
Kontos
Cox
Montero
Robertson
Whelan
Nova
Vech
Duncan
Jackson
Gardner
McAllister
Sanchez
Wright
Melancon
Miranda
McCutchen
Garcia
Reyes
Curtis
Fortenberry
Hilligoss
Gonzales

This is off the top of my head w/o deliberation so bear that in mind.

Thanks so much for this, Fabian.  This should serve as a great guide as the trade deadline approaches.  My big question recently has been where to draw the line on this list for players you’d include in a Teixeira deal.  I’m thinking I’d include any of the B-grade prospects or below, except for Cervelli (due to organizational need), and maybe Betances (due to upside?).  I’d hate to part with Kennedy, who’s pitching so well, but if these ratings are correct, the Yankees still have four better arms in their system, not to mention Sanchez who’s still lurking about, and Brackman, who I think Fabian doesn’t like so much.

Everyone is talking about the Yankees dead bats, but the Rockies went to Boston and shut down their offense too. Let’s face it the Yanks have been struggling with change of speed pitchers all year. Today they see a familiar friend who is starting over in Colorado and by all accounts is thriving. Lopez has been hit hard over the years by several hitters like A-rod, Damon and Jeter, but it’s no given that this will be the case today. The past couple of days has shook the hitters confidence. The hitting background is less familiar and who knows how a daylight game plays into the equation.  One thing that still ticks me off is how Lopez drilled Jeter in the hand last summer. He continued to play hurt for a month and his power production was pretty much negated over that time. Had Jeter played healthy, hit two-three more homers, gotten well over 100 rbi’s, he may have well won his MVP. That’s baseball, I guess, and Jeter’s hitting style invites most of the HBP. I think he should be wary of the same kind of inside pitches today. This road trip is off to a crappy start and I just as soon not see him on the D/L.

BTW, relating to last night, I agree with those that say that Joe’s “trust” in certain long time favorites such as Bernie etal, often affects his decision-making and that isn’t necessarily a good thing as these stars age. Pettitte was one pitch away from keeping it 2-1, but was obviously tired. It’s easy to second guess Joe after seeing the result, but looking at the way he failed against Taveras, would have been enough for me. Relationships and “gut feelings” can sometimes blind a manager from maybe doing the more appropriate thing.

May I ask your qualifications for publishing this list?

Interesting how these ratings and discussions of prospects seem to pop up every time the Yankees slump.

On another (but related) note, I’m hoping that the last 2 games might persuade Cash that indeed, this team needs another bat, and soon--even if that means less playing time for the $13 million mistake that is our sometime CF.

who has more trade value?  i think Kennedy does.
Perhaps...unless a team wants a “young but ML ready” pitcher, in which case you have Clippard.

I think Clippard is a guy with a lot of disagreement here.  I know Fabian likes him, and I do too.  I would think of him as more of a weak #2/solid #3 ceiling, but a lot of people see him as back-of-the-rotation.  I think if his ceiling is where I think it is (2/3), you should rate him ahead of Kennedy based on the fact that he is further along, even if Kennedy’s ceiling is a little higher.  However, if you think he is a 4/5, then yeah, Kennedy should be rated higher.

Anyway, I think we seem to generally agree and are more arguing semantics now.

May I ask your qualifications for publishing this list?

I’ve been reading Fabian for about 2 years now, and based on his obvious knowledge and love of baseball, and time he puts into research, I’d say he is as qualified as anyone to put this list together.

May I ask your qualifications for publishing this list?

Is this your first time reading this blog?

I don’t know if anyone asked this but where would the Yanks draft picks fit in if they had signed for example Brackman I owuld think he’d make the list somewhere?

May I ask your qualifications for publishing this list?

uhh, it’s a blog.

I’d say he is as more qualified as than anyone to put this list together.

one question, if Christian Garcia is still on the list, where are Sanchez and Melancon?  didn’t Garcia have TJS and is out this season as well?

Nobody who has recently undergone TJ surgery should be on that list. Remember Brandon Clausen and Sean Henn? They were top flight prospects who then had TJ surgery several years ago. How’re they doing now?

How is Gagne doing so far?

"Nobody who has recently undergone TJ surgery should be on that list. Remember Brandon Clausen and Sean Henn? They were top flight prospects who then had TJ surgery several years ago. How’re they doing now?

This isn’t true. Neither of those guys was a top flight prospect when they had it. Jim Callis said during the draft coverage that TJ surgery isn’t a big deal.

Brandon Clausen was indeed the top Yankees prospect, and one of the best pitching propsects in all baseball, before the knife.

Sean Henn received a record signing bonus for draft-and-follow. I think he got $1.7 million. He was regularly at 97 at that time.

Who cares what Callis says. There was a list posted here a few weeks back, the overwhelming number of pitchers on that list who had TJ surgery, were never the same. Sure, they can throw, so? Callis is so wrong that it isn’t funny.

Gagne is a recent example of this.

Don, is Gagne hurt?  ‘Cause his numbers this season are excellent.  19 IP, 1 R, 9 H, 7 BB, 18K.

Hey, over at THT, Jacb Jackson lists Shelley Duncan as a possible “next Jack Cust,” i.e. a non-prospect who could contribute (a lot) to a MLB club.

Me, I doubt it.

Claussen was the top prospect in one of the two or three worst farm systems in baseball. He was ranked 37th once by Baseball America, the other LHP in his neighborhood were Kaz Ishii, Carlos Hernandez, and Ty Howington. He was never one of the best pitching prospects in baseball.

Sean Henn was never a top prospect.

I care what Callis says, seeing as how he knows more about how minor league players then you or I could ever dream of.

You posted that list. I responded and pointed out that there were as many pitchers on that list that were successful as there were those that weren’t. You also like to ignore the fact that TJ surgery has progressed alot in the last few years, making surgeries that occurred even five years ago, like Claussen’s almost irrelevant to the conversation.

Have you looked at Gagne’s numbers?  He’s struck out 18 in 18 innings and allowed 9 hits and 1 R.

this is pretty irrelevant, but i watched gagne pitch today, & he’s sitting in the low 90s, throws a nice change but has lost a lot of movement on that insane change he used to throw, & he seems to have lost velocity & command of the curve too. now that’s just one inning (all ive seen him throw so far this year) so who knows how his stuff is shaking out overall, but if you look at his overall stats, he’s gone from being essentially the greatest peak-performance reliever of all time to merely a very good one. that’s a pretty huge difference. obviously i have high hopes that CG, HS, & (probably) AB all come back strong, but TJ is hardly automatic, & i’m pretty sure it’s widely acknowledged that henn lost a lot off his fastball after the operation.

27—Correct. And scouts have mentioned that Gagne loses velocity when pitching back-to-back games.

He was once as great a closer as there was in the majors.

Also my point with which you agree: TJ surgery, it is hardly automatic.

26—Wrong. Brandon Clausen was one of the top pitching prospects in all baseball. End of story.

Sean Henn was a tremendous prospect who still has not recovered the velocity he had after he signed the record $1.7 million deal.

Kind of skimmed everything, but here goes…

1. Kennedy vs. Clippard, to me they are very similar prospects. They both have questions about fastball velocity and they both give up more flyballs than you would like. Kennedy commands his pitches better, especially the fastball, but I feel that Clippard has superior secondary pitches. I really don’t think there is much of a difference between these two in terms ceiling or anything.

2. I’ve never been a big fan of Humberto Sanchez and I value health a lot with pitchers, Sanchez hasn’t had a healthy season ever. He should be in that honorable mention/C+ group, which means he could fit in anywhere from 14 on down.

3. Try to keep the letter grade in mind, if guys have the same letter grade that means they are, in my eyes, roughly equivalent prospects and where they rank number wise is just a reflection of a personal hunch/bias that I have. 1-3 is a group, 4-5, 6-8, 9-13, 14-30 are groups. Within those groups guys are, FOR THE MOST PART, interchangeable.

4. Tabata vs. Chamberlain, reflecting what Kevin Goldstein mentioned recently on Baseball Prospectus, I’m pretty certain Jose Tabata is a .300 hitter. I’m also pretty certain he has the physical ability to be a .380-.400 OBP guy. The only question, offensively, is power. Overall, there’s also the question about weight/conditioning. With Chamberlain, I LOVE the fastball, like the slider, and am cautious about the change and the *bit* of injury history. I could see either guy being ranked as the better prospect, which is why I gave them the same grade.

5. Hughes vs. Tabata/Chamberlain, is the weird one as far as the grades, I think. Hughes is a better prospect than either guy, but his A- is closer to an A while their A- is more a real A-. That probably makes no sense, but in the offseason I gave Hughes an A and the difference between then and now, for me, is that he’s had the hamstring and now the ankle. While I’m glad these aren’t “pitching” injuries, again, I’m very leery of ANY type of injury pattern with young pitchers, so I felt I had to dock Hughes a bit.

6. Who to Trade...I think any and everyone in the farm system should be made available for trades other than Hughes and Chamberlain.

7. Marquez over Horne is a toss-up, IMO, as well as the opinion of scouts (check out yesterday’s BA feature). I like Marquez track record more, I’ve always been a huge fan of his and feel he could be Brandon Webb.

8. I have a huge bias against minor league relievers. I don’t think they have enough room for error in their career potential to be worth valuing highly. I’m not sure if I phrased that the way I wanted to.

9. Jackson vs. Gardner, I like Jackson a lot more than I probably should. His results haven’t been great thus far, but he’s been making much more consistent hard contact this year and I don’t view Gardner, at this point, as much more than a 4th OF. Neither guy is a big time prospect though.

10. Presence of up the middle guys, I don’t think this is typical of most systems. Then again, it’s not that this particular crop of up the middle players is THAT impressive. It’s primarily a function of the Yankees preferring to draft and sign athletes and that’s where your athletes usually play.

If I overlooked anything, just mention it again. Thanks for the feedback and criticisms, hopefully I’ve explained at least a bit of the method to my madness and at the end of the day, I’m not claiming to be 100% correct, just 99.

"Brandon Clausen was one of the top pitching prospects in all baseball. End of story.”

Because you say so? How about this. You’re wrong, end of story. Wow, that’s much easier then citing the evidence I did in my earlier post. And now I know you’re wrong because I said end of story. Awesome.

dude, it’s pointless.

"The success rate for Tommy John surgery for major leaguers is about 93 percent, according to Dr. Jobe.”

Actually, at that time, the Yankees farm system was ranked in the top five, before the Clausen and Henn injuries. So much for the argument of a badly ranked farm system. Let alone ranked as one of the bottom dwellers. But whatever.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/features/chat120202.html

As for the “success” rate for TJ surgery, who has argued that? I did post that most guys can throw again. What is in doubt is how well, how many return to form as it were.

And yup, who has been pointless? Thanks for your input, dude.

It’s as if you inhabit an alternate reality.

You said above: “There was a list posted here a few weeks back, the overwhelming number of pitchers on that list who had TJ surgery, were never the same. Sure, they can throw, so? Callis is so wrong that it isn’t funny.”

Which CP rebutted: “You posted that list. I responded and pointed out that there were as many pitchers on that list that were successful as there were those that weren’t. You also like to ignore the fact that TJ surgery has progressed alot in the last few years, making surgeries that occurred even five years ago, like Claussen’s almost irrelevant to the conversation.”
____

I provided a provable fact: there is a vey high success rate for TJ surgery.

As usual, you provided, um, an unsupported opinion.

If you actually bothered to do research, you might discover that opinions can be tested by reality.

For example, Dr. Jobe has found that:

1) That the recovery time and techniques have improved.

2) That elbows are easier to fix than shoulders because “[t]he elbow is almost a hinge, which is a simple joint.”

3) That pitchers can gain velocity after the surgery because it repairs the chronic damage to the ligaments.

So it’s not my opinion, it’s Dr. Jobe’s opinion, who is a medical pioneer and the foremost expert in the field, and it’s Jim Callis’s opinion, who makes his living evaluating prospects, which includes having an understanding of injuries, surgeries, and recoveries.

Rich, you’re getting silly. CB refuted nothing, he merely claimed to. The list speaks/spoke for itself. Too bad you feel a need to defend CB. I notice you won’t touch CB’s fallacy regarding the Yankee farm system back when Clausen and Henn were healthy......

As for Dr. Jobe, he does have a financial interest and a reputation to defend in the matter. Conflict of interest, anyone?

Having said that, where did I post anything that is refuted by Dr. Jobe? The BS that pitchers gain velocity is excatly that, except for a brief period in their rehab, pitchers do not statistically gain velocity over any meaningful time frame once they are pitching regularly. Did Clausen and Henn regain their old velocity, let alone “gain” velocity? It is over four (4) years since their TJ surgery. How about Gagne? His velocity is down. Sorry, there is no “gain” in velocity.

I never said one word regarding shoulder injuries, so that is a moot point and a red herring.

Mariano Rivera recovered pretty nicely from TJ surgery

Don,

Neither Henn or Claussen were top prospects. Claussen ranked #37 overall in 2002 but that was his only appearance as a top 100 prospect.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/26983.html

What’s with this Edwar Ramirez guy who’s K’d 47 in 26 innings?

Yep, #38 is my question too.

Ramirez has, supposedly, one of the best changeups in baseball, an average fastball and an average slider. He Ks so many because his change is THAT good, we’ll get a chance to see him now that he’s been promoted to the majors.