And the benefit of JC, until he hits the rotation, playing the role of Ramiro Mendoza (and probably playing better than Mendoza did) shouldn’t be ignored, either - remember what RM meant to NYY in his good years!

That was how the Twins broke in Johan Santana and I think it’s safe to say that it worked pretty well.

OK, so here’s something I’ve been wondering about: The Twins get (and I suppose deserve) all sorts of props for the way they handled the young Santana.  But then when they get their hands on version 2 (Liriano), they let a 20 year old coming off a season lost to injury throw almost 160 innings, and over 190 the year after that.  And they stuck him in the rotation right off the bat in 2006 and left him there until his elbow blew up.  Why didn’t they follow their own model?  It’s not like they weren’t trying to win in 2002 and 2003 when they were breaking in Santana.

Oh, and BTW, Celizic is a maroon.

Maroon is one of Ken Tremendous’ favorite colors.

it’s almost staggering how little Celizic knows about baseball.  he is LITERALLY one of the worst sports writers in the world.  yes, literally.

just terrible.  the worst kind of blowhard:  a blowhard who doesn’t know WTF he’s talking about.

Tell us how you really feel, yup. But I agree, that article is such typical boilerplate crap. Credit Yankee dominance in the 90’s to Rivera, talk about the importance of closer, anoint Chamberlain the guy while ignoring the importance of top-shelf starting pitching. I’ve seen that editorial a hundred times this offseason.

I don’t delight in other guys getting hurt, but before the spring training even starts, Schilling’s injury puts the Red Sox rotation in a similar position to the Yankees. They’ll now be leaning heavily on Lester and Buchholz, who have about the same level of inexperience as Hughes and Kennedy. I realize Buchholz may well be better than Schilling would have been in ‘08, but this hurts their depth and flexibility as well.

yup, the Sox are now in a very similar position as the yankees.  and they likely knew about this BEFORE Santana was traded.

i’ll expect those articles ripping the Sox for relying on 2 rookies in the rotation instead of trading for Santana any day now….

he is LITERALLY one of the worst sports writers in the world

The best part is how he ends in describing the closer as the most important position in baseball.  I of course don’t believe it, but it would be an interesting research project.  See if you can find teams with ONE dominant player, and then start assigning labels, and find what the “most important position” is.  E.g. if a team is mediocre but has a dominant clean-up hitter (regardless of position), or dominant CF’er, dominant starter, etc.  Or maybe something we could run a simulation on (I think SG did something similar to this, to look at talent distribution recently).  Not sure if that would amount to anything, as generally teams with great players anywhere on the roster would do well, and teams w/o great players not as well.

Seriously, Celzic should read the chapter about relief pitching in The Book.  While a dominant closer makes a difference, the difference is surprisingly small. Basically, if a team has 3 run lead with three outs to go, they win 96-7% of the time whether it’s Mo pitching or Jerry Spradlin pitching.  As the games get closer obviously the numbers change, but not as much as you’d think.

I like the idea of a simulation Mike K.  Give two teams the same overall pitching staffs, but make the closer better on one team and the starters better on the other and see how it plays out.  Or hell, even run two sets of Yankee projections.  One with Joba setting up Mo all year and a relief projection and one with Joba pitching 140 innings with his starter projection.

it’s almost staggering how little Celizic knows about baseball.  he is LITERALLY one of the worst sports writers in the world.  yes, literally.

Yup, not to dispute your point, but you might want to look close and hard at a person named Gene Wojciechowski. I used to subject myself to that torture once, just gave up. His writings has rarely to do anything about actually writing about sports, but about moral sermonizing of guys like Barry Bonds, and how the Patriots may have personally let him down by not winning the superbowl.

Wow. Almost *that* time again… where did winter go? Oh, right, wasted on football and the Team That Shall Not Be Named.

yup, the Sox are now in a very similar position as the yankees.  and they likely knew about this BEFORE Santana was traded.

I’d rate Schilling’s problems as a slight setback. Any reasonable calculation was that one of the old dudes would break down sooner or later and Buchholz would wind up in the rotation for most of the year. But Schilling’s upside is potentially very good, if his post-injury performances last year were any reliable indication. Now Matsuzaka is our second-most reliable starter. We have five guys who could be excellent, but it’s not hard to picture four of them being somewhere between mildly to totally disappointing.

Has anyone re-done the wins forecast w/o Schilling? I’m guessing it’s down 2-3 wins but no more.

Hey SSF -

Anyone you know start a pool placing a date regarding when Bill Bavasi gets assassinated? He’s about to make the Santana trade look really, really, good.

—-OK, so here’s something I’ve been wondering about: The Twins get (and I suppose deserve) all sorts of props for the way they handled the young Santana.—-

Should these props now be tempered b/c the twins won’t be enjoying Johan’s future health?  In other words, since there was always the lingering chance that the Twins wouldn’t be able to afford Johan, should they have rode him harder when they had the chance?

“Should these props now be tempered b/c the twins won’t be enjoying Johan’s future health?  In other words, since there was always the lingering chance that the Twins wouldn’t be able to afford Johan, should they have rode him harder when they had the chance?”

I actually think that’s a great question.
In part, it ought to have a moral component.  In other words, whose interests are they to take into account?  The organization as a business?  The fans?  Baseball as a whole?  The player(s)?
Rational self-interest might dictate doing just what you suggest, kronic…, but wouldn’t it take a certain kind of mind, perhaps a not-very-admirable one, to intentionally heighten the risk of really hurting a player?
(On another note, perhaps Santana was thinking along with you, and perhaps that’s why he made a practice, as I understand it, of asking out of games after the sixth or seventh inning.)
Again, a good question.

I happen to think that the way the Yankees have ridden Posada over the last 8 years borders on immoral.  I think they expected him to break down or slow down significantly by the end of this last contract.  Lucky for them he didn’t, and let’s hope it doesn’t happen anytime soon. 

In between paragraphs I took a quick look at Fisk and Bench and noticed than neither of them had a stretch like Jorge’s 2000-2007 in which they caught 135+ games per year every year.  Bench comes close.  Then he was shifted to 3B and stopped hitting and retired.

Anyone you know start a pool placing a date regarding when Bill Bavasi gets assassinated? He’s about to make the Santana trade look really, really, good.

Really? I don’t worry myself much over the Ms. I gather the prospects load is too much, eh? Mariner fans are a pretty non-violent bunch, lucky for Bavasi and a few of his predecessors.

Why can’t Joba start in the rotation and then move to the bullpen after the All-star game?  Seems to me that he would be more valuable shoring up the bullpen for the playoff run.  Also, Kennedy could start in the minors or in the bullpen and then move to the rotation in place of Joba.

“Should these props now be tempered b/c the twins won’t be enjoying Johan’s future health?  In other words, since there was always the lingering chance that the Twins wouldn’t be able to afford Johan, should they have rode him harder when they had the chance?”

For this to work, you have to assume that they could have ridden him in such a way as to lead to his breakdown sometime right around November 1, 2008.  It would not have been in the Twins interest for Santana to have had Liriano’s early workload if it meant that he’d also have had Liriano’s early injury.

Seems to me that he would be more valuable shoring up the bullpen for the playoff run.

why do you think that?

if Joba is lights out as a starter, i want him starting games 1 and 4 in every playoff series.

Guys, Jonathan’s going to be insulted if we don’t move to the next thread.

You could also lose IQ points if you listened to Mike and the Dog’s interview with Bill Madden today, in which they argued that making Joba the permanent 8th inning reliever is a no brainer.

You could also lose IQ points if you listened to Mike and the Dog’s interview with Bill Madden today, in which they argued that making Joba the permanent 8th inning reliever is a no brainer.

Oh man!  Now I’M dumber.  Thanks a lot!

What’s next?  Because Melky has a great arm, he obviously should play RF because that’s where your best OF arm should be?  (NOTE: Obviously if Jackson is ready to play, Melky moves to RF, but that’s different)

I’m unconvinced about Joba starting off the year in the pen. It seems like those innings take more of a toll on pitchers than innings starting. If a reliever throws 100ip a year, his arm falls off, so the target of 1/2 and 1/2 and 140 might ultimately still damage him.