Wow, the White Sox project to suck even more than last season.

Those win totals for the Red Sox and Yankees look fine to me.  You figure they’ll both be in the 92-98 range as usual.  Great stuff, SG.

Thanks a lot, SG.

Other than the Mets and Yanks appearing a bit on the high side, these predictions look good to me.

How much playing time is this assuming for Liriano?  The Twins look to have a terrible offense, it seems like they would be crazy to try to hold onto Santana to make a run with the current roster, unless this is assuming only 70 IP for Liriano.  If it is, the Twins could be hoping for a full season from him, then they might be in the mix.

I didn’t include any innings from Liriano yet.  I should probably pencil him in for 120 or so.  That offense is ugly though.

Wasn’t the NL West also a wild ride in 2007?  I think the only team really out of the race was the Giants.

Nice to see Haren’s gone to the NL in terms of talent going to the snior circuit- I guess I have a soft spot for it.

What is Brian Cronin is right and the Mets are over rated here? Imagine if 85 wins leads the National League next year. Obviously, Cairo by nature doesn’t make bold predictions or anticipate a team getting lucky (like Arizona did last year), but still...the NL sucks and there is no reason to think it will get any better.

What is Brian Cronin is right and the Mets are over rated here? Imagine if 85 wins leads the National League next year. Obviously, Cairo by nature doesn’t make bold predictions or anticipate a team getting lucky (like Arizona did last year), but still...the NL sucks and there is no reason to think it will get any better.

This is entirely possible.  There could be at least 6 AL teams better than any NL team.

IE, if you’re still there: enjoy your trip.  I hope you get your research finished already.  Will you be flying out of Montreal or Mexico, or did you get permission from the federalis?

The Mets are winning 92 games, how is that happening?  How are they also only allowing 700 runs?  Omar has done everything in his power to make sure that won’t happen, and the offseasn isn’t over yet, so he still has more room to hurt the team.  Other than that it looks like everything is falling inline the way I thought things would happen.  Also I’m liking the way the AL looks NECK AND NECK, looks like we may be in for a good season.  The AL East and Central and the NL West look like they’ll be fun to watch

Also, the D-Rays made a huge improvement, I agree with your system here.  They have a solid starting three, and an offense loaded with talent.  Is it too crazy to think that they’ll win the division with in the next five years, given of course their LOADED farm system?

Imagine if 85 wins leads the National League next year.

You’ve got to remember that these are the averages over 100 seasons.  In any one season we’d expect at least one NL team to win around 90 games just due to random variance.

The Mets are winning 92 games, how is that happening?

There’s always a few results that just go against intuition, like this one.  I assume it’s partially explained by bouncebacks by Jose Reyes, Carlos Delgado, and Carlos Beltran on offense, and getting 150 good innings of Pedro Martinez (a pretty big if).

How are they also only allowing 700 runs?

Even though their pitching is uncertain, the Mets defense projects really good and they’ll be in Shea for one more year which suppresses offense. 

The Mets are probably legitimately a 90 win team, so maybe the fact that they’re projecting to win 92 isn’t that surprising.

Also, the D-Rays made a huge improvement

Yeah, they scare me.  Their pitching was really hurt by a horrendous defense last year and they’ve made some pretty good moves in shoring that up.  If anyone could use Johan Santana…

so the yankees are a few lucky bounces from having the best predicted record in baseball, yet all i keep reading is that they HAVE to have Johan Santana or they can’t compete next year.

interesting.

Well, there’s a fair amount of uncertainty in the Yankees’ projected pitching.  These projections assume something along the lines of 460 innings of 4.25 ERA pitching from Joba/Hughes/IPK.  Is that feasible?  Yeah.  Is it risky?  Yeah.

Is it risky?  Yeah.

of course, giving a 7 year $140M contract to a 29 year old pitcher is probably the very definition of “risky”.

so it’s all how you look at it.

No doubt.  But getting Santana for 2008 would be more likely to result in a World Series victory, although the impact to seasons 2009-20XX could possibly be a net loss.

I’m glad I don’t get paid to make those kinds of decisions…

I hope you don’t mind a Diamond Mind question:

I’ve played the game for a while, is there a way to play the 100 simulations you did automatically or do you run 1 simulation, record the results, reset the totals and then run simulation #2, etc.?

I’ve played the game for a while, is there a way to play the 100 simulations you did automatically or do you run 1 simulation, record the results, reset the totals and then run simulation #2, etc.?

I wrote a program that automates it for me.  It runs the season, spits out reports, then restarts it and starts again.  I have a spreadsheet that then rolls up the totals for me with a macro.  I can see what I have to do to make the program available for download, but it may take a bit.

Here’s my two-monthly nag about those variance studies we discussed for sometime when you’re bored.

"I can see what I have to do to make the program available for download, but it may take a bit.”

No need to spend the time on it for my benefit, I was wondering if there was a hidden menu choice somewhere.

Here’s my two-monthly nag about those variance studies we discussed for sometime when you’re bored.

Ok, I’m going to do what I can to run that over the next week and try to post about it in early January.

No need to spend the time on it for my benefit, I was wondering if there was a hidden menu choice somewhere.

It may not be a big deal to export what I need, I’ll take a look.

Pedro pitching 150 innings?  That’s optimistic even if you were a Mets fan.  I don’t think he’ll even sniff 100.

Oh, also how do the Braves fare better than the Phillies?  Smoltz and Glavine are both getting up there in age, expecting anything more than a 120 ERA+ from them might be stretching it.  Are you expecting big seasons from McCann, Chipper, Francoeur, and Teixeira?

Did you know that in 188 innings in 2005, Carlos Silva walked 9 dudes? Whoa.

Hey SG, how would this thing change if the Red Sox trade for Johan Santana?

No doubt.  But getting Santana for 2008 would be more likely to result in a World Series victory, although the impact to seasons 2009-20XX could possibly be a net loss.

I agree, even with Santana a WC would not happen without a dollop of good luck, which the Yankees haven’t had much of recently. Some of their bad luck may have been the residue of dumb design, but not all of it. In my opinion the goal now should be to continue to build the core of the team for seasons 2009-201X. With their current rotation they will contend next year and could win the division if they get a few breaks.

Hey SG, how would this thing change if the Red Sox trade for Johan Santana?

SG said re. the Yankees:

No doubt.  But getting Santana for 2008 would be more likely to result in a World Series victory, although the impact to seasons 2009-20XX could possibly be a net loss.

I think that holds true for the Red Sox too.

Oh, also how do the Braves fare better than the Phillies?

CAIRO hates the Phillies’ pitching.  Getting Jenkins may shore up the defense a bit, and Kyle Lohse would be an upgrade, although probably overpriced.  At this stage a difference of a win can be made up pretty easily.  And the Braves do have a good core in Hudson, Smoltz, Chipper, McCann, and Kelly Johnson. CAIRO absolutely loves Chipper Jones, although his health is an open question every year.

how would this thing change if the Red Sox trade for Johan Santana?

Without running through this all again just yet, I’d estimate swapping out some Lester/Wakefield innings for Santana would probably save them about 20-25 runs in the rotation.  If they lose Ellsbury in the trade, then we’d have to figure out the cost compared to Crisp full-time, although right now my system says there’s not a ton of difference between the two. 

Getting Santana probably makes Boston a couple of wins better in the regular season, but it also makes them a much better bet in the postseason too.

Some of their bad luck may have been the residue of dumb design, but not all of it.

I agree that they’ve had some bad luck, but I think part of it has to do with building flawed teams too.  Signing 30+ year old free agents means you’ll hit well but likely play below average defense, and that poor defense makes the pitchers look worse.  When you don’t hit in a 3-7 game series you’re screwed because other teams will have the edge in pitching and defense. 

With their current rotation they will contend next year and could win the division if they get a few breaks.

I think so.  They’ll definitely score enough to win 95 games if they get a reasonable overall pitching performance.

SG, how does CAIRO feel about Cole Hamels?  You do realize his chief export is Ks right?  Also how is Hudson that big of a piece of Atlanta’s core?  In 2006 he had a 1.44 WHIP, and his Ks are down, he’s also going to be 32 next season...why is he such a big piece?  Also do you have Myers in Philly’s rotation or Philly’s pen?  I think CAIRO is right about Chipper, the guy’s a beast.

Even in all the disagreements and questions, I still love the site!

Now for a Yankee related question:  How does adding Cox and Melancon to the pen effect the season’s out come?  Also what do you guys think Humberto Sanchez can do for the bullpen?  I’d have to say a bullpen of:

Edwar Ramirez/Latroy Hawkins
Ross Ohlendor
JB Cox
Mark Melancon
Humberto Sanchez
Mariano Rivera

Will be a lot better than the trash we trotted out there last season.  Anyone like Kei Igawa in the pen?

Here’s a question that is pointless and probably terrible as a consideration and I therefore offer it up to be mercilessly shot down: if the team has six potential starters, two of whom have clear IP limits (Joba, Hughes), one of whom has career-long elbow issues (Pettitte), one of whom is at this point likely better on extra rest (Moose) and another of whom is a rookie (IPK), then what is the problem with having a six-man rotation, at least for part of the season? You could even throw Wang every five days - which I mainly suggest out of remembering Billy Martin going with a six-man staff in ‘85 for awhile with Guidry pitching every five days.

I mean, a team is fortunate to get 200 IP from more than a starter or two at this point, no? And teams are carrying 12-13 pitchers.....so why is the five-man rotation not looked at as something to be evolved past?

cheers

Hello Lads…
SG.. I know you did Mo’s projection recently. I was just pondering what his decline may look like and I’am too friggin tired and lazy to lookit up. I believe he’s your favorite current laundry model, as he is to me also.
I feel he still has two more seasons of greatness left.
I just hope I’m right.
I hope IE doesn’t get thrown into a camp in Cuba and get turned into a BRS fan. Those crazy Commies do that stuff.
His will is strong.
Of course he could get thrown into Gitmo, be called a terror monger, and be fed and health cared to death.
You never know what the holidays will bring.
Wondering if Clay LA and Exiled To CHI. have made it back to the Nutbag......Nutmeg state yet.

Oh, I have. Just been hanging out with some friends and bitching about the cold most of the time. Although today wasn’t too bad. I am leaving for slightly warmer climes on Saturday morn, however, X-mas with my family in VA.

glooglez.

SweetG please project aaron boone’s offseason pickup bball games. rickey’s the ballhog and bob wickman’s the sweaty/hairy dude nobody wants to guard. kevin brown’s taking pot shots from his roof to get all’em off his goddamn property.

I mainly suggest out of remembering Billy Martin going with a six-man staff in ‘85 for awhile with Guidry pitching every five days.

I can’t find much evidence that this ever happened.  Guidry and Niekro made 33 starts each.  Ed freakin’ Whitson made 30 and Joe Cowley made 26.  Dennis Rasmussen made 16 starts and they got the remaining 23 from five other guys.  I haven’t gone through all of the game logs at retrosheet, but the ones I have checked don’t show anything that looks like a six man rotation.  What you’re probably remembering is a basic five day rotation with the fourth and fifth spots being filled by more than one pitcher, and the fifth starter being skipped whenever possible.

how does CAIRO feel about Cole Hamels?

CAIRO loves Hamels.  He’s projected for 165 innings, a 3.80 ERA (121 ERA+ in CBP), and 170 Ks. 

Also how is Hudson that big of a piece of Atlanta’s core?  In 2006 he had a 1.44 WHIP, and his Ks are down, he’s also going to be 32 next season...why is he such a big piece?

He projects to be good for 220 innings and an ERA of 4.12 (ERA+ of 112 in Atlanta).  That’s a lot of innings, and would save the Braves about 40 runs above a replacement pitcher.  That’s pretty valuable.

Also do you have Myers in Philly’s rotation or Philly’s pen?

Myers is in the rotation in these simulations.  The problem for Philly comes after Hamels/Myers.  Kendrick (projected 5.29 ERA), Eaton (projected 5.77 ERA), and Moyer (projected 5.32 ERA) is pretty ugly.  Their defense is a little lacking too, although Chase Utley is awesome and I think Rollins is good but overrated.

How does adding Cox and Melancon to the pen effect the season’s out come?

I’d be wary of expecting much out of either this year.  We just don’t know how well a pitcher will bounce back from surgery.  I think at the very least they should give the team some options that will prevent them from having to trade someone talented for Jay Witasick.

Also what do you guys think Humberto Sanchez can do for the bullpen?
I love Sanchez’s potential, but I’m not sure when he’ll be ready.  I think he has the talent to be the best non-Mo reliever in the pen.

I’d have to say a bullpen of:

Will be a lot better than the trash we trotted out there last season.  Anyone like Kei Igawa in the pen?

I would think so too.  Unfortunately, you forgot the Farns.  I think Igawa as a long man out of the pen might be useful, but he doesn’t seem to have the stuff to be a lefty specialist.  I love Ohlendorf’s sinker/slider combo out of the pen, and I love Edwar’s changeup if he can get ahead with his fastball. 

SG.. I know you did Mo’s projection recently. I was just pondering what his decline may look like and I’am too friggin tired and lazy to lookit up. I believe he’s your favorite current laundry model, as he is to me also.

Mo is my favorite indeed.  Check the next post for his projection.

please project aaron boone’s offseason pickup bball games.

Boone’s probably good for 12 pts and 5 assists a game, but he can’t crash the boards.  He’s a solid 1, stretched as a 2 I’d guess.