ZIPs loved Melky at the beginning of the season. Ah well…

I hope this is the beginning of a long and miserable decline for Ortiz.

I wonder what the Cards do to their OFers.

I wonder what the Cards do to their OFers.

You don’t want to know…

SG, you rock. Seriously, thanks for all the enlightenment.

Wow, despite all the HRs, Ryan Howard has really sucked.

Thanks, SG.

So Padre fans must feel about Greene the way we do about Cano (i.e. wtf???!!!!!!???), except Greene’s been in decline since his first full season, so that’s probably easier to take.  Maybe Tulowitski’s more comparable, except he’s been hurt, right?

Who am I kidding?  On that list there are no other 25 year-old homegrown players who are just experiencing an inexplicable decline from their first 3 seasons, are there?  No one knows our pain.

Am glad to see Ross Gload has underperformed by 10/9%.  Lucky for him he’s gotten to face the Yankees.

So, how easy would it to be to make a histogram of these differences to see the distribution.  Might be interesting to do at the end of the season to see how many players fell withing +/- 5% or so of the projection, as well as how many outliers there were.

No one knows our pain.

I bet Nationals fans feel pretty lousy about the face of their franchise falling off a cliff.

I thought the previous post established that Seattle fans are indeed feeling the most pain.

Yep, there’s Howard.  Right where you’d figure.

how easy would it to be to make a histogram of these differences to see the distribution

This is blasphemy!  We must have pie charts!

This is blasphemy!  We must have pie charts!

I would love to see what percentage of “missing” runs each severely underperforming player is responsibly. Yes, I know that this would be nonsensical from a data standpoint. But it would have many slices and colors.

player is responsibly

My talk-good go bye-bye.

1 off topic thing, 1 semi-off topic thing - both of which I’ve been curious to see what sort of reactions they create:

1) (Posted in last night’s game thread):

Jose Tabata since being traded to Pittsburgh:
Rk (11 ABs): .455/.538/1.629 (2 HR, 7 RBI)
AA (45 ABs): .327/.400/.912

2) Rays pythag : 71-55. That’s the only reason I’m holding on to for a miracle to happen (Yanks winning the division.)

Remember when Freddy Sanchez won a batting title.  Oh Freddy how quickly you returned to anonymity

This just hasn’t been Cano’s year.  He was an automatic out until about mid-June, and since then he’s actually been pretty Cano-like overall numbers-wise (.318/.354/.483 in 211 AB).  If he didn’t acquire the WLE (Worst Luck Ever) when he actually did start hitting the ball well over the last 2 months, his season wouldn’t look nearly as bad.  With just a .607 BA on line drives, he has about 13-14 hits fewer than expected.  Whatever, maybe he hits .400 in September on Baltimore choppers and no-man’s land popups.

“Rays pythag : 71-55. That’s the only reason I’m holding on to for a miracle to happen (Yanks winning the division.)”

Their bullpen is probably the main reason they’ve overachieved their pythag.  They have the second-lowest reliever ERA in the AL, so they are kind of like Arizona last year (though not to the same extent as the D-Backs were actually -20 run differential, which is absurd).  So who knows, maybe the needle hits E on their bullpen and they start losing, but I won’t count on it.  I just want the Yankees to play better baseball.  If they make the playoffs, great.  If not, hey, at least they won’t leave as much of a WOE taste in everyone’s mouth if they play well.

Their bullpen is probably the main reason they’ve overachieved their pythag.

Yeah, I checked that. Problem is only one of their guys is significantly below his FIP (Howell.)

Wow, Arizona’s overall bullpen ERA last year was higher than I remembered (3.95), but I think they threw their scrubs out there when they were getting blown out.  In close games it looks like it was all Valverde (177 ERA+), Pena (144), Lyon (176), Slaten (173), and Cruz (152).

“Yeah, I checked that. Problem is only one of their guys is significantly below his FIP (Howell.)”

Yeah, and unfortunately none of them have a Proctor-like number of appearances either, so they might not burn out either.

I’d bet on Cano winning the batting title before I’d bet on the Yanks finishing ahead of the D-rays this year.

So, Snacks v. Halladay today. Is there a bigger mismatch on paper?

This is an awesome piece of information SG!

I was just going down the list trying to rationalize each one, especially the underperformers. Like Ortiz, injury, MCab, adjusting, etc.

When I got to Melky, I was silent for a long time.

So, how easy would it to be to make a histogram of these differences to see the distribution.

Very.  Refresh and you should see it now.

Awesome, thanks a bunch.  So it looks like 50% of the players fall within the +/- 10%?

Also, is the fact that the median is biased to +.031 just a reflection of people outperforming their projections getting more playing time and being more likely to hit the PA minimum?  Offense is down in the AL but not in the NL, right?

Hey, can you slap a gaussian fit on that histogram?  That gives you a real sense of whether outliers have something different going on.

Also, could the PTB consider offering Mike K the keys for his reports from Scranton (or whatever, for that matter)?

This site and all you commenters have been overachieving all season too. Put that in a pie chart too. A real saving grace to a miserable season so far.

All those fools who said we stole Marte and Nady had no clue what potential upside Tabatha had.  We could be regretting this trade big time in two years.

All those fools who said we stole Marte and Nady had no clue what potential upside Tabatha had.

are you referring to people here or the talking heads on ESPN?

i think most people here realized that Tabata had a ton of potential, while still liking the trade.

the problem is that we can never know the outcome of the “alternate reality” where Tabata stays in the Yankee system.

he was having about as bad a season as a prospect could have, he had become a discipline problem, and he came very close to quitting the team.

is it purely a coincidence that he turned it around after being traded?  i don’t know, but it seems unlikely.  maybe the trade was a “wakeup call” or maybe he was simply just putting too much pressure on himself trying to be a hot shit prospect for the NEW YORK YANKEES and needed a less glaring spotlight.  or maybe it’s just 50 good ABs.

either way, on the day the trade was made, it seemed like the right move.

that’s about all i can say about it.

Hey, can you slap a gaussian fit on that histogram? 

Done.

the problem is that we can never know the outcome of the “alternate reality” where Tabata stays in the Yankee system.

he was having about as bad a season as a prospect could have, he had become a discipline problem, and he came very close to quitting the team.

That’s a great point, a lot of prospect guys believe that some young guys simply need a change of environment to realize their ability. Tabata might have been one of those guys, it didn’t look like he was going to do anything with the Yanks and it may have simply been the wrong organization for him. And as you say, it’s only 50 ABs.

If anyone is looking for bright spots in a more general sense, the Sox rotation is in shambles, optioning Buchholz and losing Beckett to injury, and with the Twins half a game out of the wild card, they may not make the playoffs either.

‘Hey, can you slap a gaussian fit on that histogram?’

“Done.”

What, by hand?  Send me the vector and I’ll run a fit if you like.

either way, on the day the trade was made, it seemed like the right move.

100% right.  I don’t think this will ever go down as a trade we’ll (or at least I’ll) regret.  Nady allows the Yankees to let Abreu go next year and not *need* to sign another OF.  Or if they fail to get Tex they can sign that OF and move Nady to 1B and be happy.  There’s an excellent chance that - if they choose not to sign Nady to an extension - they’ll get two picks in 2010 as well.  And, if you consider where the Yankees were in the standings when they made the trade and how well Nady has played since then, we *should* be talking about this trade the way we did the Abreu trade a couple of years ago.

I suppose Tabata could come up next year, win the ROY, and be a first-ballot HOF’er.  That would suck.  Unless Nady wins the MVP next year

Oh, and thanks for the kind words Rilkefan!

If anyone is looking for bright spots in a more general sense, the Sox rotation is in shambles, optioning Buchholz and losing Beckett to injury, and with the Twins half a game out of the wild card, they may not make the playoffs either.

Now, now, we shouldn’t take pleasure in another’s misfortunate.  We will, but we shouldn’t.

If anyone is looking for bright spots in a more general sense

I’m still holding out hope, Alex gets hot, pitching goes on a roll, Cano gets hot, etc. But my bright spot is that this season will end. The combination of high expectations and bitter results is really taking a toll.

Now, now, we shouldn’t take pleasure in another’s misfortunate.

If the Sox miss the playoffs, my winter will be much more pleasant than if they don’t. If I didn’t have to worry about the constant taunting and bragging by Sox fans that would come about, I wouldn’t mind if the Sox made the playoffs this year. So I see it as a bit different than another’s misfortune, more like improving my own quality of life.

ESPN and the Ledger reporting Pavano is your Saturday starter, ladies and gents.

Pavano is back up

How has Tabata turned it around? Talk about small sample size.

I was hoping for Zambrano, Victor, to get that start.

Meanwhile…...... Phil Hughes - The Lost Season Continues.

“I suppose Tabata could come up next year, win the ROY, and be a first-ballot HOF’er.”

What performance next year would guarantee him first-ballot HOF status?  Say he debuts by hitting thirty hr in a row, then draws 600 walks?  Would playing 1.0 ZR defense be required too, or a Cy Young?

So what if Tabata realizes his potential with the Pirates? I don’t see the comparative financial viability of the two franchises changing drastically anytime soon. Chances are by the time Tabata has established himself as Manny Jr. (best case scenario)Pittsburgh can’t afford him and, if we want, we’ll flip that year’s Jeff Karstens and Dan McCutchen to them for Tabata. Cynical way to look at it but does anyone really think the Pirates can ever get out of their own way?

Oh luck me, I got tickets to Saturday’s game.

As well, for those with experience in this sort of stuff, I was thinking of getting tickets for Sunday game Saturday when I arrive in Baltimore, shouldn’t be a problem, right?

And my friend was telling me there were something like after 5th inning discount tickets, or there were. Yes? No?

Lastly, who else might be there this weekend?  I’ll be Sec 316.

Cano, to my eye, really has hit into some bad luck.  He absolutely tatooed a ball last night directly into a glove (DP, no less).  He’s done that a lot.  So, while this year has sucked, I’m not overly worried going forward.  Melky’s another matter.  I can’t remember the last time he made solid contact.

What performance next year would guarantee him first-ballot HOF status?  Say he debuts by hitting thirty hr in a row, then draws 600 walks?  Would playing 1.0 ZR defense be required too, or a Cy Young?

I was thinking more long term.  The ROY next year would hurt, and 10 years from now IF he was having a career-arc like ARod, we’d still be talking about it.  That’s all.  If ROY was all it took to get into the Hall, Steve Sax would be in.

Villainx,  I don’t know anything about the discount tickets.  Last time I was in Baltimore for a Yankees’s game was last summer; that was actually the game that got delayed and made up a month later.  I bought the tickets in February, and the best I could get (w/o sitting in the 100$+ seats) was 2nd deck in LF.  Not bad, but…the two times I saw the Yankees in Camden there were as many Yankee fans there as O’s fans.  For most games any more it is probably true you can get decent tickets the night before, but not likely w/ the Yankees.  Doesn’t mean there won’t be ANY seats available of course.  Also, there are plenty of scalpers about outside.

I can’t remember the last time he made solid contact.

Last night.  Oh, you meant against real pitching…

Send me the vector and I’ll run a fit if you like.

I love it when you guys start talking dirty.

What performance next year would guarantee him first-ballot HOF status?  Say he debuts by hitting thirty hr in a row, then draws 600 walks?  Would playing 1.0 ZR defense be required too, or a Cy Young?

Yeah, it really is a shame that it’s against the rules to pitch from center field.

Lastly, who else might be there this weekend?  I’ll be Sec 316.

I’ll be in section 11TB on Sunday, but I’m bringing the family and my wife thinks everyone you meet online is some sort of freak or pervert by definition.  So I said, “But those people all met me online.” and she’s like “Well, there you go.”

I was thinking more long term.  The ROY next year would hurt, and 10 years from now IF he was having a career-arc like ARod, we’d still be talking about it.  That’s all.  If ROY was all it took to get into the Hall, Steve Sax would be in.

FRANK (yelling): What the hell did you trade Jay Buener for?!?  He had 30 home runs, and over 100 RBIs last year. He’s got a rocket for an arm - - you don’t know what the hell you’re doin’!!

STEINBRENNER: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people love Ken Phelps’ bat.  They kept saying ‘Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps’.

So I said, “But those people all met me online.” and she’s like “Well, there you go.”

You’re wife is very wise…

Mine likely would have responded the same way.

I guess I gotta give Pavano a smidge of credit. When he had surgery in late-May 2007, it was very reasonable to assume he’d never pitch for the Yankees again, even in the minors. But he’s right in line with a normal rehab schedule from TJS. No real set backs.

Contrast that with Humberto Sanchez, who had his surgery in mid-April, 2007, and is still throwing 1 inning stints in the Gulf Coast League.

“Yeah, it really is a shame that it’s against the rules to pitch from center field.”

Once a week they’ll put a scrub in CF when Tabata pitches - or not, since no balls will make it out of the infield.

No keys for Mike K unless he adjusts his irony algorithm, or agrees not to pull my leg.

he had surgery in late-May 2007

Just to nit-pick, it was June 7, and he’s actually a smidge ahead of the typical rehab schedule.  But of course, he’s playing for that incentive-laden flyer of a contract that somebody’s going to give him next year.

Once a week they’ll put a scrub in CF when Tabata pitches

Well, sure, but without that pesky rule about the pitching rubber, he could pitch and play center field every day!

No keys for Mike K unless he adjusts his irony algorithm, or agrees not to pull my leg.

At the very least I need to start writing sentences that aren’t ambiguous!

The catcher or umpire wouldn’t be able to throw the ball back though.

I guess he could just bring nine balls to cf every inning.

Nine??  Three should suffice: one-pitch groundouts, right?

Hard to pitch to contact from cf.

I guess I gotta give Pavano a smidge of credit. When he had surgery in late-May 2007, it was very reasonable to assume he’d never pitch for the Yankees again, even in the minors. But he’s right in line with a normal rehab schedule from TJS. No real set backs.

There are still days before Saturday.

Doesn’t the big P have some sort of minor injury now?  Stiff neck or somesuch?

Doesn’t the big P have some sort of minor injury now?  Stiff neck or somesuch?

Missed his bullpen a couple of days ago with a stiff-neck, but threw yesterday instead.

Stick Michaels was singing the praises of Gardner this morning saying if he could have a BA about 280 he would have a very high OBP and would be among the top CFs in range.

SG -  I noticed you’ve changed from plotting the distribution of the i;ff to now plotting the absolute difference.  I was pondering this, did you have any overriding reason why one is better to look at than the other when looking at the whole population?

Wow, I honestly have no idea what happened to that post.  “ i;ff” should be percent difference.

Actually, I think it’s interpreting it as html.  Oh well.

I was pondering this, did you have any overriding reason why one is better to look at than the other when looking at the whole population?

Not really.  I sent my data to rilkefan and that’s what he sent me back.  I tend to trust physicists.

bebop @60—Gotta keep the faith. Gardner deserves a least half the chance Melky had, as I have been saying.

Hmm, I thought that delta woba was what the original plot showed - and I was running out the door to get to a doctor’s appt - newborns seem to spend about 10% of their time at the pediatricians.  I’ll send in the unitless version.

Stick Michaels was singing the praises of Gardner this morning saying if he could have a BA about 280 he would have a very high OBP and would be among the top CFs in range.

Stick was also one of the biggest backers in the organization of Andy Phillips.  the same Andy Phillips who, much to the chagrin of PagsRags, kept Carlos Pena from getting a shot with the Yankees.

what’s my point?

oh yeah, if Gardner sucks, which is a very real possibility, does that mean Michael is just as fallible as Cashman?

if he could have a BA about 280

Not to stick up for Michaels, but that’s an if. He ain’t saying he will do it.

Whether you want to criticize or defend him, you guys could at least get Gene’s name right.  It’s Michael; no ‘s’.

Anyway, Gardner’s got six walks in 80 major league PAs.  At that rate, a .280 BA would give him a respectable OBP, not a “very high” one.  I still say that he won’t walk at the major league level until he convinces the pitchers that he can hurt them, and since he couldn’t hit a home run if he was hitting from second base, hurting them is going to have to mean a BA a helluva lot higher than .280.  Guys who hit .280 with no pop just don’t put up .390 OBPs in the show.

Having said that, Gardner would be a perfectly useful player if he hit .285/.355/.385; with solid defense and a bunch of SBs, he’d be about as good as what’s left of Ichiro Suzuki.