I really hope everybody stay put, unless we can have a good package in return.

The Nats are looking at them.  What would the Nats have that we need?  The Nats are not good in the traditional, or in the modern sense.

What would the Nats have that we need?

A guy who might be able to play CF, but then again might not?  (ie - Milledge)

And Nick Johnson for sentimental value.

Put me down in the trade no one column. 

After thinking about it further, the ONLY one I would trade is Matsui out of that group.  Yeah, I understand how improbable that is (NTC, his contract, injury-history, etc).  But any of Nady, Swisher, Damon hits well enough to DH, and there may be plenty of DH PA’s availble for ARod, Jeter, Posada, etc.  Swisher and Nady can both handle any of the OF positions (though Nady should be only an emergency CF), and also 1B.  The only thing Matsui can do is DH.

Now for sure, if Cashman gets blown away with an offer, you take it.  But since the Yankees don’t have anyone in the minors right now ready to play in the OF (unless you count John Rodrigeuz), they need some OF depth in the majors.  Anyway, I don’t think anyone is going to be traded.  At least until in the season, if/when Gardner/Melky show they can handle CF full time.

And Nick Johnson for sentimental value.

I’m thinking that NJ somehow ends up on the Red Sox.

Put me down in the trade no one column.

.. on January 12. The time to make a deal would be spring training. They’ll have more info about Posada’s health and they can wait and see if someone else gets injured.

The time to make a deal would be spring training.

Probably still too early.  Though Matsui’s value may be up (if he stays healthy and “looks good”), probably still not enough for him to have value.  For the other three, I don’t think good health by others would make trading them any more desireable; though other teams may lose players and more need an OF.

The time to trade one of Damon/Nady/Swisher - if at all - is July.  In addition to knowing how well the team is holding up injury-wise, you’ll also have a good read on Melky/Gardner, and Austin Jackson.

Maybe I’d trade Nady for Cameron straight up.

don’t we have to know what is coming back before we can declare that they shouldn’t be trading Nady or Swisher?

right now, they have 3 corner OFers and a hole in CF. 

i don’t think they NEED to make a trade, but if Nady could be turned into a starting CFer, wouldn’t that be worth losing that depth?

right now, i like the way it is, but were Nady somehow able to return Milledge to play CF, how could you not do that?  i don’t think that is likely to happen, but it’s just an example.

i don’t think they NEED to make a trade, but if Nady could be turned into a starting CFer, wouldn’t that be worth losing that depth?

Yes, I think that is logical. Milledge for Nady straight up would be a no brainer.  Unless Posada can’t be the starting catcher in 2009. Then I think you have to try to do something to get Saltamacchia.

Nady for Cameron?  I actually think Xavier is worth more than that…

Is Milledge a CFer?  I mean a real one, not a guy who goes out there and gives you shit defense for a while before you grudgingly admit he’s a corner guy.

Nady for Cameron?

As I understand it, the purpose of a Nady or Swisher trade is to reduce salary while alleviating a “logjam.” Nady for Cameron would increase payroll.

It’s also important to keep this in mind; Nady will likely be a Class-A free agent and with his relatively modest salary this year, it’d be a near no-brainer to offer him arbitration. With Boras as his agent, he’d most likely reject it and the Yankees would be compensated with a 1st round and sandwich round pick if/when he signs elsewhere. That has to be figured into Nady’s value.

That’s just one reason, among a few, I’d prefer not to see him traded.

IIRC, the numbers say Milledge isn’t a CF. IIRC, the scouting reports said he should be solid out there.

Milledge was a -10 in CF last year, i believe, but he is also 23 years old.  improvement isn’t out of the question. 

As I understand it, the purpose of a Nady or Swisher trade is to reduce salary while alleviating a “logjam.” Nady for Cameron would increase payroll.

depends how you look at it.  the yankees are interested in trading for Cameron, but can’t add the $10M to their payroll.  a Nady for Cameron swap only adds $4M.  perhaps they still have $4M of space under their limit.

So just to get things straight, the Yankees have CC and Teix signed, right? If so, great off season. And Burnett? And a lower payroll than last year. Dang that’s nice.

When is spring training/opening day?

depends how you look at it.  the yankees are interested in trading for Cameron, but can’t add the $10M to their payroll.

Wasn’t part of the problem with the Melky/Cameron trade about money as well?  I.e. that they wanted Igawa but wanted the Yankees to eat a good chunk of his salary?  Not sure if we ever got a straight story there, but I’m pretty sure that one of the things Milwalkee wants to do is shed salary if they’re going to trade Cameron, and I’m not sure if saving $4M fits that for them.

There really aren’t that many CF out there that are worth trading for (or signing) right now.  They’re either 1) core players for their team (Beltran, Sizemore) 2) old and/or overpriced (maybe Cameron, Griffey, Rowand, etc) 3) young players that are unproven and may cost a lot as well (Milledge, etc).  We’re not going to get (1), (2) may not be worth it and (3) we already have some of those.

Nady for Cameron swap only adds $4M

Is there no way the Yanks could get some money to even this out? I guess not, huh?

Put me in the “no trade” camp as well.  They’ll need the depth.  Even if the Yanks stay healthy and they have a glut of OFs, they should keep them as long as possible to ensure they have a warm body to trade if a need crops up elsewhere (rotation, catcher).

I agree.  Right now, the only real definitive “hole” is at CF.  If they can fix that, sure.  If not, what’s the point of a trade unless there is more salary pressure than we assume.  Waiting for an actual hole to develop is probably the best strategy.

I wonder what it would take to get Cody Ross from the Marlins.  He’s not in their long term plans since they have Stanton coming up soon.  They’re moving him to left to make room for Maybin, but he had good numbers in center last year: his .952 RZR was the best of any NL regular CF (Millege was .870).  Florida won’t want Nady though, they’ll want prospects.  You could give them their choice of Gardner or Cabrera to temporarily replace Ross, plus whatever pitching prospects you could bear to part with.  Ross might be good enough to play everyday for a year or two, but you can also platoon him with whoever is left of Gardner/Cabrera: he kills lefties to the tune of a .969 OPS over three years. 

I know: it’s like playing Solitaire.

We won’t loose any depth by trading Nady for Cameron and only will spend 4 million more. Put me in the “Nady for Cameron” camp.

Ed- I agree 100%.  The always cheap/broke Marlins probably wouldn’t want to add $1 to their team so another team would probably have to be brought in who would want Nady/Swisher/Matsui/etc. in exchange for a prospect desired by The Marlins. 

What is the status of that big-beaked Pettitte?  We should have given him a deadline and then signed Smoltz (as a #5 mind you) if he failed to sign by teh stated deadline.

Put me in the “no trade” camp as well.  They’ll need the depth.  Even if the Yanks stay healthy and they have a glut of OFs, they should keep them as long as possible to ensure they have a warm body to trade if a need crops up elsewhere (rotation, catcher).

I would generally agree with this philosophy, but simultaneously I would worry that if the Yanks wait until the need arises (CC/Jorge go down with an injury), other teams will raise the price accordingly.  So a Jason Marquis costs a Melancon instead of a Vizcaino.

What is the status of that big-beaked Pettitte?  We should have given him a deadline and then signed Smoltz (as a #5 mind you) if he failed to sign by teh stated deadline.

Innings, not upside.

I’m in the camp of keeping four guys for three spots, so I don’t think you need to find a place to dump Nady or Swisher.  I proposed getting Ross because I’m interested in upgrading CF.  He costs nothing, so payroll isn’t an issue. 

The thing about the always broke/cheap Marlins is that they’re not just jettisoning players as soon as they reach arbitration: they seem to have a plan for success, albeit one that’s the negative inverse of the Yankees’ plan.  Their off-season moves this year baffled me at first: why would you trade Jacobs, Willingham, and Olsen while they’re still relatively cheap?  It’s not like they got awesome prospects back, either.  But they were seven games over .500 last year, and they’re set up to be nasty as hell in couple of years, if they keep Uggla and Ramirez, and most of Maybin, Stanton, Morrison, Miller, and others mature as expected.  Like some other Florida team.  They’re always happy to give you unexceptional major league talent for more lottery tickets.  Given the modest surplus of arms in the Yankees system, it seems like a fit.

They’re always happy to give you unexceptional major league talent for more lottery tickets.

Now that would be an interesting trade: Cody Ross for $1M in scratch-off lottery tickets….

We seem to have plenty of OF depth how about some IF depth superior to Ransom or Berroa in return?

Juan Uribe is available- he plays all IF positions and can hit LHP so may be a good guy to play when you rest Cano.

CHONE projects Cameron @ .767 OPS in 2009; Nady @ .783 (also, Marcel has Nady 43 points higher). 
Cameron with a 110 OPS+ in 2008 (in the NL); Nady 128 OPS+ (144 NL, 105 AL).
While Cameron may be a defensive upgrade in center, its hardly a reason to make the swap, particularly when you consider age (Cameron 36, Nady 30) and the fact that Nady is not a liability defensively.

that depends entirely upon whether or not you believe Damon or Swisher are legitimate options in CF. 

if not, your choices are:

1. Damon/Gardner/Swisher with Nady providing depth
2. Damon/Cameron/Swisher with Gardner providing depth

i’d guess that #2 will win more games than #1.

not saying i’d do the trade, i might not, but i can see the rationale if the yankees don’t like the idea of playing Damon or Swisher in CF.

not saying i’d do the trade, i might not, but i can see the rationale if the yankees don’t like the idea of playing Damon or Swisher in CF.

It’s also whether Cammy will tie the Yankees FO’s hand if something attractive pops up mid season. I don’t see that being the case, as thankfully, if there is a chance to improve the Yankee management usually act accordingly, but who knows.

There’s also the question of why Milwaukee would oblige by trading Cameron for Nady in the first place.  Someone has to play center for them, and they have two legit corners already.  That Braun guy isn’t going anywhere, and while Corey Hart had an uninspiring 2008, his 2007 was basically Nady’s 2008, and he’s three years younger.  They have someone at first too, but if that guy goes to the Red Sox, then I guess Nady could play first.

1. Damon/Gardner/Swisher with Nady providing depth
2. Damon/Cameron/Swisher with Gardner providing depth

i’d guess that #2 will win more games than #1.

If any at all.  I doubt the difference would be worth the $4 million, if there even is a difference.
It appears to be an unnecessary move on the surface.  Damon/Swisher/Nady with Gardner/Melky as the 4th is another option.

Exactly why is Gardner OPS+ 53 better then Melky??

Exactly why is Gardner OPS+ 53 better then Melky??

Umm, grit?

We don’t care about such subjective things, of course, but Henderson was elected to the HOF in his first year (hooray for Ricky!) and Rice made it too (boo!).

Jesse Orosco got one vote, from somebody who should have his BBWAA creds taken away.

Oh, and Tim Raines, who deserves in more than Rice, got 22% of the vote.

That’s because pitchers were not as afraid of Raines, apparently.

Rice=Bullshit Gammons politicing

So is Freddy Krueger a lock for the hall, or what?

Definitely has the longevity, but people say he’s more of a “compiler”.

I’m ok with Rice going in, just not before Trammell, Blyleven, and Raines.
Oh, and McGuire too.

What about Dwight Evans, who had better stats and was a much better defender iirc?

“better stats”
Well, ok, via bb-ref, player A:
HOF Standards: Batting - 43.7 (111) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)
and player B:
HOF Standards: Batting - 43.0 (114) (Average HOFer ≈ 50)

Can’t say that seeing HOF Standards as a stat provides me with any usable information.

Why don’t they just rename it the Hall of Lowering Standards?

Rice getting in does bother me immensely. I admit I’ve never seen him play, and maybe watching him during a span of years would do something, and some of his numbers look pretty good, but is even a strong argument for him a pretty persuasive one?

For example, I’m not particularly excited about Dawson either, but going through it and through it, and adding that he played a good chuck of time as a CF (not a majority but fairly representative) it gets persuasive. But Rice?

Rice is a pretty bad choice, but it seemed inevitable for about 2 years now, so i’ve made my peace with it. 

i guess this opens the door for Juan Gonzalez…no?  wrong team i guess.

Yeah, this hurts less because we KNEW he’d make it this year.

But man, is he not “deserving” of being a Hall of Famer. It will be hilarious seeing how few votes Juan Gonzalez gets for a better career.

Or hell, talking “feared” hitters, notice Albert Belle gets no support at all? Dude has ONE less home run than Rice is almost 2500 less at-bats! Belle’s career OPS+? 143 - Rice? 128

Brian’s right: if Rice is in, Belle deserves in.  Really, though, neither does.  Rice’s average and slugging are products of Fenway and his RBIs are a product of Wade Boggs.

Exactly why is Gardner OPS+ 53 better then Melky??

Umm, grit?

Well yes, grit.  But also baserunning, and OBP upside.  Gardner has a record of actually getting on base at a decent clip in the minors.  And when he is actually on, he’s a threat.  Not that it amounts to much, but it’s something.

Nady for Dukes?

But j, I thought we have to save everything for Salty.

Evans: OPS+ 127 in 9k AB, 8 GG in RF
Rice:  OPS+ 128 in 8k AB, 6th all-time in GIDP.

40-man roster issues re further moves, a point we discussed briefly the other day.

keep swisher. what happened last time we got an A’s guy who batted .200 the previous season?

I know! I know!  We started the season 1-4!

But j, I thought we have to save everything for Salty.

I think I’m with yup… if you can get Dukes or Milledge for Nady right now, you probably don’t pass that up.

Nady will likely be a Class-A free agent and with his relatively modest salary this year, it’d be a near no-brainer to offer him arbitration. With Boras as his agent, he’d most likely reject it and the Yankees would be compensated with a 1st round and sandwich round pick if/when he signs elsewhere. That has to be figured into Nady’s value.

At the risk of having this completely misunderstood once again, I will repeat what I said the other day, but perhaps a bit more clearly this time:  Offering arbitration to Nady in 2010 might very well be a no-brainer, but his relatively modest 2009 salary has nothing at all to do with that.  Arbitration awards for players with less than six years of service time are linked to statistically comparable players with similar service time; arbitration awards for players with more than six years of service time are linked to statistically comparable players signed as free agents.  Nady’s 2009 salary will not in any way limit the size of his theoretical 2010 arbitration award.

Nady for Dukes?

I seem to recall reading that the Nats are committed to Dukes in CF and would prefer to trade Milledge.  That’s why I mentioned his Milledge rather than Dukes way back in #3, even though Dukes is the one who’s a legitimate CF.

Exactly why is Gardner OPS+ 53 better then Melky??

Gardner has had half a season to compile that, while Melky has had three (mostly) full seasons for his #‘s.  Gardner has also shown at each level that when promoted mid-season, he’s struggled, and then the next season he plays well.  I think he deserves a chance in the big leagues.  Whether that is as a starter or a 4th OF doesn’t matter too much to me right now.  But I don’t think Gardner has anything more to prove - or to learn - in AAA.

I’ve heard Gardner compared to Juan Pierre but will walk more; he’ll also K more but those things *may* cancel out.  Juan Pierre at his peak (ages 26-30) was a valuable player (UZR really likes his defense).  If Gardner is 90% of Juan Pierre he’ll be a nice player to have pre-arbitration.  The only way we’ll find out if he’s 60% of Juan Pierre (nice 5th OF pre-arb years) or 120% of Juan Pierre (All Star) or what-not is to let him play.

Nady’s 2009 salary will not in any way limit the size of his theoretical 2010 arbitration award.

I don’t think that’s entirely true, is it?  Nady’s salary will be driven by the arbiter choosing what the Yankees have offered vs. what Nady’s camp requests.  Whether or not HE (or SHE) takes into account what Nady made in 2009 is entirely up to the arbiter I believe.

Chances are that what FA signed for in 2009/2010 will be a bigger determining factor in Nady’s 2010 salary than what he made in 2009.  But depending on the type of season he has I can see the Yankees arguing that an arbiter determined he was worth X$ in 2009, and with a similar season 110% times X (which the Yankees will likely offer) is a fair contract.

Regardless, if Nady hits well enough to be an “A” FA I don’t think the Yankees will be afraid to offer him arbitration.

Whether that is as a starter or a 4th OF doesn’t matter too much to me right now.

It matters to me.  Based on nothing other than my gut, I think he’s likely to be overwhelmed as a starter, but could develop into a very useful player if eased in as the 4th OF.

Juan Pierre at his peak (ages 26-30) was a valuable player…

Don’t know why you’d leave out his age 25 season, but yeah.  Offensively, 2003 was clearly better than anything from 2005 on.  Was his UZR bad in 2003?

I don’t think that’s entirely true, is it?  Nady’s salary will be driven by the arbiter choosing what the Yankees have offered vs. what Nady’s camp requests.  Whether or not HE (or SHE) takes into account what Nady made in 2009 is entirely up to the arbiter I believe.

There are rules about what the arbitrator is and is not allowed to consider.  The size of the raise that a player might be getting is not among the things that are relevant, at least for players with > 6 years of service time.  My point is that it appears that prior year salary influences arbitration awards because the overwhelming majority of arbitration cases involve players with 2+ to 5 years of service time, and there are two rules that apply to those players but not to players with 6+ years of service time: 1) the 20% paycut rule, and 2) the arbitration rules specifically state that players are to be compared to other players with similar service time.  A rather ordinary sixth year player can get more in arbitration than a very good third year player.  But if those two players were both potential free agents, with say seven and ten years of service time, then the excellent player with less service time would almost certainly get a much higher award (even if he lost the hearing).

Anyway, this is a relatively minor point and all very hypothetical, since there just aren’t very many cases where free agents actually go to arbitration, and most of those involve marginal players.  IMO, the more important reason to not count those draft picks before they hatch is that the compensation rules might change before next winter.

That’s why I mentioned his Milledge rather than Dukes way back in #3, even though Dukes is the one who’s a legitimate CF.

unfortunately, Dukes is also the one who’s a legitimate nutjob.

i normally don’t place a lot of weight on things like that, but in this case, i would stay away if i were Cashman.

Dukes in NY just seems like a match made in hell. 

put a Milo on him.

Don’t know why you’d leave out his age 25 season, but yeah.

Laziness.  I used FanGraphs, and they have the audacity to make you compute a player’s age yourself!  I glanced at has birthdate, and just saw 1977.  You are correct since he was born in August that 2003 was his age 25 season.  So 25-29 would be the range (with a blip in 2005).  Most of his value comes from defense other than ages 25 and 26.  His age 24 and 30 seasons aren’t bad, and we’d certainly live with them.

the arbitration rules specifically state that players are to be compared to other players with similar service time

I didn’t know that.  I didn’t think it was even THAT well defined.  You learn something new every day!

IMO, the more important reason to not count those draft picks before they hatch is that the compensation rules might change before next winter.

I just don’t see it.  I think the CBA runs through 2011.  I think there has been exactly ONE time that the PA/League has reopened a contract to change the terms, and that was for the steriod-testing when there was congressional pressure.  I really don’t see enough impetus for them to do something prior to the new CBA.  I think there *will* be changes for 2012 and beyond.

unfortunately, Dukes is also the one who’s a legitimate nutjob

Excellent point.

I just don’t see it.  I think the CBA runs through 2011.  I think there has been exactly ONE time that the PA/League has reopened a contract to change the terms, and that was for the steriod-testing when there was congressional pressure.  I really don’t see enough impetus for them to do something prior to the new CBA.  I think there *will* be changes for 2012 and beyond.

Since you brought up steroids, let me preface this by saying that I could be misremembering.  However, I seem to recall several times in the past when there have been minor changes made to the CBA in non-expiration years.  Things like draft rules, for instance.  I certainly could be misjudging the amount of pressure to fix the free agent compensation system though.