Yeah, Flabathia really, <u>really, truly</u> wants to be a Yankee.

Apparently they also offered Sheets a $30/2.  I haven’t heard any other offers for the man but I’m pretty sure he isn’t going to take that.  However I think we’d all love it if he did.

Apparently they also offered Sheets a $30/2.  I haven’t heard any other offers for the man but I’m pretty sure he isn’t going to take that.  However I think we’d all love it if he did.

Well, he isn’t going to take that *right now*.  In two weeks that may still be the best offer he has on the table.  Also, depending on what else the Yankees do, the 2/30 may look a lot better if he is also pitching after CC in the rotation, or if he has Teixeira catching pickoff throws at 1B.

If Sheets is confident in his ability to stay healthy, I think that’s actually a fairly good offer for him, given the apparent caution most MLB teams are showing about his injury-history.  He gets a lot of money to pitch for a contendor (argue all you want about Yankees’ chances of winning the WS next year, but any team that still has a shot mid-September is a contendor), and when his contract is done he’ll be (I believe) the same age Burnett is now, with similar credentials (high K, success in the NL East, “resolved” injury concerns), quite probably in a better economic environment. 

And that’s one long sentence, but I don’t feel like going back and breaking it up!  Glad I’m no longer getting graded for this stuff…

Alright, here’s an esoteric free agency question for the peanut gallery:

Teams are limited in how many type A/B free agents they can sign in a given year.  The limit is based on the number of type A/B players available.  If my count is correct, there are 57 such free agents this winter, meaning that no team can sign more than three.  However, a team can also sign as many type A/B free agents as it loses.  So the question is, what constitutes “losing” a free agent?  I assume that retirement (Mussina) doesn’t count, but are Abreu and Pettitte and Rodriguez considered lost only if and when they sign with other teams?  And is the “replacement” quota separate from and in addition to the regular quota, or is it just that you can exceed the regular limit if you lose more than that number?

OK, actually that’s two questions—I lied.

Glad I’m no longer getting graded for this stuff…

Guess again.

If the Mets sign K-Rod for around 3/36 that will actually be a fantastic deal: great for them from a PR standpoint, decent from a baseball standpoint.  He needs a better agent.

MC, i am not sure of those answers.  i am not sure that retirement wouldn’t count. 

also, is it possible that this rule played into the Abreu decision?  that not only did they not want to get stuck with his salary, they wanted to be sure they would “lose” his Type A status so they could sign an additional free agent??

Carl Pavano insurance

As i understand it, something like this exists. It’s just more expensive in the case of former Marlin pitchers than in other cases.

My two cents. I think Cashman may be smart to move on AJ. Get one bird in the hand in case CC bails. I almost hope he bails as I think the team may be as well off then to go hard after Teixera. Tex going to Boston would give me great indigestion.  I think Burnett,Pettitte, hopefully Tex and then another lesser pitcher, Sheets/Garland? may be a better haul then to simply add CC and another lesser pitcher. I think the lineup would prosper with Tex and if Boston gets him they probably broaden the gap between us and them, Tampa Bay aside.

As i understand it, something like this exists. It’s just more expensive in the case of former Marlin pitchers than in other cases.

That’s why I’m hoping the Red Sox sign Burnett.  The insurance explicitly states you need to double each player’s premium if you have two of them on your staff at the same time.

Guess again.

As long as you can’t get hold of my college transcript, I think I’m okay…I hope…

Be afraid, Mike K.!

This place has got to have the highest number of English professors per capita among sports blogs.

I know everyone loves to point out the Sheets vs. A.J. career similarities but Sheets is not the same pitcher he was 3 or 4 years ago.  His K/9IP and his K/BB have gone way down over the last 2 years.  Am I the only one slightly concerned by that?  Honestly, Sheets vs. Pettitte is a lot closer than people think. 

I’d love a C.C., Pettitte, Sheets signings for 2009 only because it keeps them out of long term deals (hopefully 2 years max on Sheets and Andy) but that would still keep them out of the Teix market.  I’m not sure what I’d like right now.

Sheets is not the same pitcher he was 3 or 4 years ago

He’s not the stud he was in 2004, and he likely never will be again.  But if he was, he’d be a viable alternative to Sabathia and it would take more than five years at more than 9 figures to sign him.  His upside is attractive because (if?) he can be had on a short-term deal.

And by more than 9 figures I mean more than $100M.  Not “One BILLION Dollars” (maniacal laughter).

His K/BB are way down, but they are still both better than Burnett’s.  He just doesn’t walk many guys.  Now, there’s a league difference obviously.  And yes, he hasn’t been the pitcher he was 3 or 4 years ago, but that guy was an absolute monster. 

I’m with you, I like CC, Pettitte, and Sheets as the FA pitchers.

Honestly, Sheets vs. Pettitte is a lot closer than people think.

According to Cairo, here are two relevent #‘s for how Sheets, Pettitte, and Burnett would project in a neutral league/park:

Name:      IP:    RSAR
Pettitte   210   30.4
Sheets     165   30.9
Burnett     192   37.4

Pettitte is clearly a step below both of them in talent, but a surer bet to throw 190+ innings.  If I pro-rate Sheets/Burnett to 200IP, I get Burnett at 39.0 RSAR (rounded to nearest tenth), and Sheets at 37.5.  There is a difference there, but not much.  Ability-wise, they are basically the same.

So basically the argument comes down to 1) How confident are you in either one’s ability to stay healthy (I personally feel either one is a risk to throw less than 150 innings, AJ a *slightly* higher risk) and 2) What are you paying for it?  Burnett sounds like he’ll take 5/75 to get, Sheets may only take 2/30 (speculating based on that was posted earlier).  I see it as the risk/reward on the players being pretty much the same.  So if you pay less money for the same risk/reward, that’s a no-brainer, right?

Mike K. I’ll respond but are we moving it to the new Sheets thread or staying here?

There is also a significant risk that Pettitte throws less than 150 innings in 2009, but apparently I’m the only person who considers this.

Mike K. I’ll respond but are we moving it to the new Sheets thread or staying here?

Sorry…move to new thread?  Sounds fine to me.

There is also a significant risk that Pettitte throws less than 150 innings in 2009, but apparently I’m the only person who considers this.

I think there’s less risk of Pettitte throwing less than 150IP than most pitchers.  But probably more risk even than Wang, who is coming off an injury.

That’s why I’m hoping the Red Sox sign Burnett.

Yeah, sounds pretty unlikely, though you never know. All the agent said was that talks were “more substantive than last time.”

That’s why I’m hoping the Red Sox sign Burnett.

The last thing I want to see is Burnett pitching for Boston against the Yanks. Anyone remember what Burnett has done against the Yanks the last two years?

1.64 ERA in 2008
0.60 ERA in 2007

I know he might get hurt, but if he is healthy on the Sox you can almost guarantee the Yanks won’t be winning the division (barring major Sox injuries). Lester, Beckett, Burnett, Matsuzaka would dominate. That’s 4 guys who could win 20 games if healthy. Throw Teixeira in there and that is a brutal Boston lineup. I’m not saying I think that is going to happen—it almost definitely won’t. But any Yanks fan who wants Burnett on the Sox is a little loopy. Even if he misses some games, simply having him down the stretch could be devastating.

In isolation, sure, I’d love to see him in Boston. He’s a top-quality guy. I just don’t see it fitting into the larger plan very well, and I’m a front-of-the-kool-aid-line fan of the larger plan. There has been some noise about the Sox nearing the end of the revenue expansion line, which really makes me think they’d be loathe to sign more than one type-A free agent. That said, if Teixeira signs elsewhere before Burnett does, then I think the Sox might jump in for real.

I just don’t see it fitting into the larger plan very well

Yeah, I can see that. But in the short term it would seriously dampen the Yanks chances if Burnett were pitching for the Sox in ‘09. I think that it makes sense to worry about your own team’s long term plans, but if the enemy loads up for the short term it kind of sucks to take it on the chin for a year or two.

But any Yanks fan who wants Burnett on the Sox is a little loopy

Perhaps you didn’t read far enough back, but I was just following along with a joke about insurance costs for former Marlins pitchers…