The Phil Huggies Saga continues.

My parents also gave up on me when I hadn’t gotten a PhD by the time I was 22.

The Yanks should have traded Phil Hughes for Reggie Sanders when they had the chance.

Wouldn’t Josh Bard be worth taking a flier on?

The Phil Huggies Saga continues.

You’re right. How did he not crack a rotation of CC, AJ, Wang, Joba and Andy. Bust!

Let’s focus on the important part, if Hughes is in the minors it means Joba is in the rotation. WHO WILL PITCH TEH 8TH!!!!!!!!!!!11111111!1111111111111!!!!!!!!!!!

Igawa?

Never mind, the Nats got Bard. Why wouldn’t the Yankees offer the same deal? A non-guaranteed minor-league contract? I guess he’d rather be the back-up catcher for the Nats than MAYBE (depending on Posada’s health) the third-string catcher for the Yankees.

Watching the WBC highlights this evening, I have to wonder: why was Carlos Silva given a that contract by the Mariners?  His career stats are awful for the most part, he has very average stuff, he was horrid last season and he just cost Venezuela a place in the finals.  The only good thing one can say about him is that he almost never walks a batter.  Oh, and the by the way, Bobby Abreu dropped an easy fly ball in RF.  Get used to that, Angels fans.

Watching the WBC highlights this evening, I have to wonder: why was Carlos Silva given a that contract by the Mariners?  His career stats are awful for the most part, he has very average stuff, he was horrid last season and he just cost Venezuela a place in the finals.  The only good thing one can say about him is that he almost never walks a batter.  Oh, and the by the way, Bobby Abreu dropped an easy fly ball in RF.  Get used to that, Angels fans.

A. career year in a contract year
B. Bill Bavasi
C. Weak crop

yeah, Silva is bad.  it was one of those deals, like Zito, where it was obviously horrible the minute it was signed.  the free agent class was horrible last year.  you can see what the yankees were thinking.  try to get by in 2008 with what you have, splurge in 2009…i’m going to guess they don’t sign any pitchers in 2010, then the following year you have another great market like this year, with Halladay and Webb.  there were some really good pitchers available this winter, remind me again why the Mets didn’t sign Derek Lowe?

Does anyone know why Carlos Zambrano did not pitch for Venezuela?  Was he hurt?  Did the Cubs tell him not too?  He would have been a far better choice in terms of taking the hill, that’s for sure.

i’m going to guess they don’t sign any pitchers in 2010, then the following year you have another great market like this year, with Halladay and Webb.

I’m hoping they don’t [need to] sign any pitchers in 2011 either!  Potential 2011 starting 5 - CC, AJ, Joba, Hughes, one of Wang/IPK/Brackman/Bleich(sp).

Wasn’t Silva also signed under the awful logic of “he eats innings”? Nevermind that those innings are well below league average.

remind me again why the Mets didn’t sign Derek Lowe?

Bernie Madoff

How about the fact that Lowe, who will be 36 this year, wanted and received a four year deal.

Carlos Silva is basically Alfredo Aceves with a lower strikeout rate and a $10 million per year price tag.

How about the fact that Lowe, who will be 36 this year, wanted and received a four year deal.

in a vacuum, i agree.

in the real world where they gave Oliver Perez 3 years, i don’t.

Lowe >>> Perez, and even more importantly, Lowe is more PREDICTABLE than Perez.

this team missed the playoffs 2 years in a row on the last day of the season.

you have as much of a lock for 200 above average innings as you can ask for, and you re-up with your own guy, who might be good or might be the worst pitcher in the world…from start to start. 

i don’t know, that’s just what i would have done.

There were rumors that Minaya favors signing Latin players.  I don’t follow the Met rumors enough to know how much weight to give them, so that thought is most likely bunk.

Latin players like…Billy Wagner?

Guillermo Wagner

Don’t forget Jota Jota Putz.

Realistically how much better will Hughes have to be over Pettitte in order to earn a spot in the rotation?  I assume that if he’s only slightly better, the Yankees wouldn’t “disrespect” Andy like that (blech).

“Realistically how much better will Hughes have to be over Pettitte in order to earn a spot in the rotation?”

Even if he is significantly better, he won’t be in the Opening Day or (Week) rotation, because

1.  Hughes’ innings this year are limited
2.  He’ll pitch in NY anyway at some point when someone gets hurt
3.  Pettitte is still a valuable starter
4.  What do you do with Andy?  Can’t send him down.  The bullpen?  Maybe he pitches teh eigth?

Maybe he pitches teh eigth?

No.  Andy’s more a marothoner.  What you need for teh eighth is a sprinter.  A real bull.  You know…like Joba.

Mar-a-thoner.  But then, the rest of what I wrote is also implausible stupid, so I probably shouldn’t try to explain myself here.

Realistically how much better will Hughes have to be over Pettitte in order to earn a spot in the rotation?

Realistically?  I think Pettitte would have to high-5-ERA-suck well into June- and Hughes would have to high-2-ERA dominate AAA for them to make the switch.

Yeah, I can’t see how it would make any sense to take Pettite out of the rotation unless he is really awful. The truth is, he does have a track record, and he has had bad months or bad halfs and rebounded to finish strong a half dozen times in his career. He is smart and recreates himself over and over. I know such statements are easy to deride as bunk in the saber age, but guys who have long, winning careers tend to do this time and again (Moose 2008 is the easiest example still fresh in our minds), so I am not going to write him off by any means. Besides, a young pitcher with good stuff who has solidified his mechanics and worked on locating his change for 3 months in the minors is a good weapon to have in July against teams that haven’t seen him 30 times already.

I look forward to Hughes 2.0.

I was surprised the Mets didn’t go after Lowe a little more vigorously.  With an improved bullpen you can just imagine their starting pitching will be a problem and everyone will second guess.

I agree with all your answers regarding Pettitte, and now I’m starting to worry that having him on the team might actually be a negative.  Sure, depth is great and all, but Andy could very well block a more talented player simply by pitching “OK”.  It’s just like when a team overpays for a mediocre player, then attempts to justify the salary by keeping him in the lineup.  Although we got Pettitte “cheap”, his name brings baggage w/ him.  And since teams refuse to acknowledge sunk costs, we could be stuck in a situation where he doesn’t deserve to be in the lineup.

I wanted to not sign Andy and use the money elsewhere, but iirc we discussed this without anyone suggesting a good elsewhere this year.

Jeez people, I know I’m being all fanboy here, but shouldn’t we wait until the season starts to see if our 5th starter is hurting us?

Throwing out Bill James because he seems like a huge outlier for both guys, the projections on Fangraphs seem to have Hughes average out to about 4.3 ERA and Pettitte at about 4.45. Except Pettitte isn’t on an innings limit so I’m guessing he’s projected to be more valuable, and there’s the added benefit of not having two limited pitchers in one rotation.

I’m sure most of us will agree that there’s a strong possibility that Hughes will makes 12-15 starts anyway, only a few fewer than his cap would allow. 

I’m bullish on Hughes and would love to see him in the rotation now, but I prefer the rotation depth.

I rather Andy be decent, stay in the rotation and block Hughes. The way the Yankees have been going the past couple of seasons, let’s not wish/discuss any of the starters falter.

Knocking on wood, any of the starters can falter or get injured, and it could be a couple of them at the same time. The benefit of no rotation problems supersede an advance look at Franchise Hughes.

Phil Hughes is great as a backup plan. I’ll just leave it as that.

[31] to [34] pretty much nailed it: depth is good.  More likely than not, we’re going to see plenty of Hughes this year.  Especially if the Yanks get their heads out of their asses for once and Pitch. Joba. in. TEH <wait for it!> EIGHTH!!!11!!11!!

so…are RedSox fans rooting for or against Matsuzaka tonight?

Sorry Villainx but somebody will get hurt, at least for a while, and Joba can’t pitch 180 innings.  Hughes will get his work in. This is what we were all saying when we were rooting for them to finally frickin sign Pettitte.  Six good starters is none too many.

[31] Why turn our brains off?

[32] - [34] My earlier argument was premised on the claim that we have useful depth beyond Hughes.

Igawa gives up 4 hits and 4 walks in 2 and 2/3rd.  In other news, sun darkens on numerous stray dog’s asses.

Ed with the Catfish Hunter quote. Like it. Nice phrasing.

I’m not sure Pettitte is really a factor in Hughes’s status. Hughes will pitch when A.J. gets hurt. I suppose it’s possible that Halladay really did fix him, but I’m not holding my proverbial breath.

we have useful depth beyond Hughes.

For major-league starting?  I’m hopeful that IPK will one day be a back of the rotation kind of guy, but with the offense as old and sketchy as it is, the Yanks are riding heavy on their pitchers this year.  As of now, Hughes is the only guy I’m really comfortable bringing up if (when) someone needs to miss a start or twelve.  Am I missing anyone?

[37] That whole debate seems more like turning your brain off to me.

[42] Your comment means, “People who disagree with me are stupid”.  Your earlier comment said, “Maybe this is an issue, but let’s not think about it until it proves out to be a problem”.  Is that really the intellectual stance you want to go with?

[43] IPK projects today as a well-above-average 5th starter.  Maybe the Yankees can afford not to put that to the test instead of upgrading the bench or other parts of the organization (including future rosters) by $10M.  Maybe the starters beyond IPK are useless.  But I suspect that the division is too strong to reward conservative measures in the tails of the luck distribution, so given that Pettite doesn’t improve the core performance of the team according to SG‘s work, I’d prefer to go for it.

All I know is that Jeter is teh suck.  Anyone see the WBC?

Yeesh.  He is a blackhole in the lineup.

BTW, if Bud “Not MY Fault” Selig thinks this WBC is something important, they why, for the love of poundcake, are suspended MLB players (JC Romero) allowed to play?

“[43] IPK” -> “[41] IPK”, obviously.

IPK projects today as a well-above-average 5th starter.

But doesn’t Pettitte, also?  The Yanks have innings limits on both Hughes and Joba, and with the rest of the rotation consisting of Wang, Sabathia and Burnett, you’re talking about many reasons to be concerned about health: Wang was healthy until last year’s basefuckingrunning injury…he should be okay, but he’s an unknown; everyone seems to think Sabathia has as good a chance as anyone to shrug off the ungodly workload he’s endured that last couple of years, but insurance seems worthwhile; and Burnett is the exemplar of high-risk/high-upside potential.  Having 7 viable starters under these circumstances seems to me the best way for the Yanks to manage the potential risks.  The pros are that:

1) Pettitte’s pay is tied to performance/endurance…it’s only $10 million if he’s good enough to be trotted out every fifth day.
2) Hughes and Pettitte project to be roughly equal in terms of pitching quality…Hughes certainly has a better chance of breaking out, but as much as it pains me to say it, he also could very much be teh suck.
3) the Yanks remain extremely deep in starting pitching, useful both for injury replacement and as beef in a trade.

I too would love to watch Hughes pitch every fifth day…but I also expect that I’ll get to see plenty of him this year anyway…and if I don’t, it’ll probably be because everyone else is healthy and effective.  So then I’ll see him next year, the year after that, and so on.  I’m okay with that.

and if I don’t, it’ll probably be because everyone else is healthy and effective

Yes!  If everyone is healthy and effective I imagine Hughes will STILL get 6-10 starts in the big-leagues; a few for Joba, maybe one or two because of double-headers, and hopefully a few in Sept when they’re resting starters for the playoffs.  Hughes isn’t being blocked by Pettitte.

If Hughes had been healthy last year, I don’t think they would have resigned Pettitte.  Quite simply, Hughes’s CEILING is about 175 innings this year, and will probably be more like 160.  If he had gotten 30 more innings last year he could have been counted on for a full year.  But he didn’t, so we are where we are.

Posada’s arm apparently functions.  This pleases me.

i think a lot of the Pettitte argument kindof went away when he settled for $5.5M guaranteed, no?

it was a better debate when the two sides were playing chicken and we were arguing over why the yankees hadn’t just cut him the $13M check. 

if he gets hurt or needs to be replaced in the rotation, the money won’t be great.  if he doesn’t, well, that’s going to mean good things for the yankees.

if he gets hurt or needs to be replaced in the rotation, the money won’t be great.  if he doesn’t, well, that’s going to mean good things for the yankees.

Definitely.  I think the biggest thing with Pettitte is health.  Last year when he was healthy, he was good.  When he wasn’t, he wasn’t.  Given the extra depth in pitching, the Yankees can afford now to DL Pettitte for a couple of months if needed. 

The only way you can argue downside for the Pettitte contract is if you feel IPK should get more starts in the big-leagues; if Pettitte isn’t here IPK would probably get 15-20 starts, but since he is IPK will probably only get about 5 (assuming no major health issues for anyone).  I’m a big IPK supporter, but I think it’s better for everyone if he is only getting about 5 starts this year.  I think he’ll do well enough that people will feel comfortable with him being the 6th starter in 2010.

Regarding Hughes, he’s still got a lot to prove in terms of his own durability. We can talk innings limits on Joba, or the likihood of injury to Burnett, Pettitte AND Joba, but Hughes hasn’t been the picture of health for the past two seasons.  Ability aside, until He and Joba log even 125 innings this year at any level without injury, I will remain concerned about both of them.

As to Jeter, yes he’s likely slowing down, but to gauge it this early in the spring and project it forward for the entire year seems premature.  He has had a lot of slow springs and the format of the WBC with all the off days hasn’t been a help I would guess.  Why don’t we also worry about the 0-10 Chipper Jones who hit a mere .369 as recently as last year? I think Jeter’s staying healthy is the biggest Jeter concern. As others on this site have said complaining about Jeter is only relevant if you have a viable replacement sitting around, and Pena or someone else surely would be far less useful offensively at least.

Just looking at the April schedule because I know this team has had issues with the cold the past few years, it looks like a mixed bag. @ Baltimore, KC and TB to start the year, (should be decent temps) then home vs Cleveland and Oakland, then @ Boston and @ Detroit. Those last 2 could be tough but at least they’re closer to May than March.

last year KC in April was miserable.  it was cold and rained almost every game, but since they weren’t coming back to KC, they played all 3 games.  one of the games they played with giant puddles on the infield.  it was ridiculous.

Hughes logged 163 innings without injury in 2006, mostly at Trenton.  In other words, he has pitched an entire season in good health before.  Also, his ailments have been freaky sorts of things rather than arm injuries - which bodes well.

This whole Pettitte convo is pretty ridiculous. I mean, the guy is under contract. All the Monday Morning Quarterbacking in the world isn’t gonna change that. He’ll start unless he puts up something like a 7+ ERA and the Yankees lose all his starts.

Phil Hughes is 22 years old. Prefer to have him as depth. Same goes for IPK, although it’s gonna take a lot to convince me that IPK has got his shit together.

The question isn’t even, “Is the team as constructed better or less risky with Pettitte?” (SG had Hughes+IPK = Pettitte, and then one has to ask about what’s beyond IPK), it’s “Could you use Pettitte’s salary more effectively?”

This whole Pettitte convo is pretty ridiculous. I mean, the guy is under contract. All the Monday Morning Quarterbacking in the world isn’t gonna change that.

sure, but you realize that NOTHING we talk about will ever change anything?

it’s “Could you use Pettitte’s salary more effectively?”

Free bleacher seats to everyone?

I really don’t think so.  I doubt highly that $6-12M for one year is holding the Yankees up from doing anything.  And of course if Pettitte is the difference between the teams making the playoffs and not, they’ll make their money back.

As others on this site have said complaining about Jeter is only relevant if you have a viable replacement sitting around

Put me in coach, I’m ready to play.

“I doubt highly that $6-12M for one year is holding the Yankees up from doing anything.”

The last time this sorites argument came up here, things got a bit heated.

I wanted to throw the $6-12M at the bench - even overpaying - or save it for a rainy day this season or Holliday et al. next.  But maybe the money isn’t as it were fungible.

well, let’s put it into a somewhat plausible/practical argument:

are the Yankees better off with Cameron/Hughes or Gardner/Pettitte?

there are other issues here, since you still have to match up with Milwaukee, but that is one way to have the debate.

IMHO, i don’t really see how an marginal improvement to the bench, given expected playing time and the fact that the bench as currently constructed really isn’t terrible, is going to be worth more than those 200 IP from Pettitte.

not to mention you change the 6th starter (who will likely be used often) to someone < Hughes.

to clarify, my comment about the bench was a seperate thought, not that i thought Cameron would be on the bench.

to clarify, i thought you were talking about cameron pitching 200 innings.

i was

I wanted to throw the $6-12M at the bench - even overpaying - or save it for a rainy day this season or Holliday et al. next.  But maybe the money isn’t as it were fungible.

I don’t think for the Yankees $6M saved this season would be $6M more they can spend next.  At least, I don’t think they look at it that way.  Also, I would argue that the “rainy day” would likely be needing to acquire another starting pitcher mid-season.  So now you don’t even have that problem.  As for upgrading the bench…eh.  Yup already covered that pretty well.  I’m don’t think money was the problem w/ upgrading the bench, I think it was playing time, and/or comfort-level.  E.g. Kennedy was probably more comfortable with Maddon than anyone else.

I guess w/ Pettitte, I don’t feel he is blocking anyone already on the team from playing, nor is he blocking the Yankees from doing anything.  It doesn’t appear that way at least.  The hope of course is he doesn’t suck, because even those who don’t like Pettitte would rather he didn’t go out sucking.  It would certainly be nice if he were the winning pitcher during a World Series and then called it quits…

sure, but you realize that NOTHING we talk about will ever change anything?

WHAT???! I thought SG was Joe Girardi.

I thought SG was Joe Girardi.

I thought changing the J to an S would throw you off my trail…