“cash”

You mean Wells’s salary?

It’s amazing how bad that contract is that it can completely cancel out all the value in Halladay.  And then some.

Let’s just give them IPK and a low-level prospect.

(Am I banned?)

Olney:

1. Heard this: Roy Halladay’s preferred destinations are the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies or Angels.

Halladay can’t really want to play for the RS, so he probably heard it from <strike>Theo</strike> Gammons.

Is there enough money in the world to complete a Kei Igawa-Halladay deal?

[3] We’re talking about 1 year of Halladay at $16.  His ~6 WAR is worth about $30, plus if you don’t resign him that’s say $8 for his A status, so $22, or about 4-5 wins in prospects integrated over their period of being free.  In a recent thread I calculated AJax alone being worth that if he progresses as expected.  Even IPK and a good AAA pitcher might be of similar value on an open market, though of course that’s high risk for the buyer, but you just need 1 and a bit WAR over 4-5 years out of it.  Either I’m calculating things wrong or there’s no deal the Yankees should make that Toronto would accept.

#6 is an excellent evaluation of Halladay’s value.  It’s better than anything I’ve seen on any MSM site/show.  Talking heads NEVER think this rationally. 

The only thing missing in the above equation is the value an ace brings to a playoff caliber team.  In other words, a playoff team should be willing to pay more to upgrade their game 2 starter to Halladay.

[7] But Halladay isn’t playoff tested! We have no idea about his true clutchitude!

I’d also add that 6 WAR in a single player in a single season is worth more than 6 WAR over the course of 4 years due to playing time limitations and roster construction.  There’s definitely a premium that teams pay to “superstars” that are able to bring 4+ WAR per season to a team.

[7] But Halladay isn’t playoff tested! We have no idea about his true clutchitude!

There is also the, can he handle pressure of NY?

[7, 9] Those are the sorts of thing I had generally in mind with “open market”, since this isn’t.  Maybe a steady stream of cheap wins is worth more to a will-never-contend team like the Jays than an ace.  Maybe the Yankee bullpen reduces Halladay’s value to them.  Maybe they should put the $16 into a mattress until King Felix is available.

But it would be interesting to see SG‘s #s for say the 2009 Yankees in the playoffs but with Halladay as the top starter and Andy as LOOGY - would that be worth 10% of a WS victory, whatever the monetary value of that is?

I’d also add that 6 WAR in a single player in a single season is worth more than 6 WAR over the course of 4 years due to playing time limitations and roster construction.  There’s definitely a premium that teams pay to “superstars” that are able to bring 4+ WAR per season to a team.

Another way to think of it is that the wins/players market isn’t particularly liquid.

The Yankees are probably willing to overpay for marginal wins over a shorter time horizon in order to maximize the contributions that Jeter, Alex, Rivera and Posada can make in their remaining prime years.

Everyone is forgetting that the Hanley Ramirez MLB rule 101.9 states teams must never ask nor accept fair trade value from Boston hence Casey Kelly=Jesus Montero.

i have heard of that rule, but i am curious why it is named after Hanley Ramirez…that would seem to be the opposite of the rule.

Would Kei Igawa + cash get this done? 

who would be their 4th string catcher in this case?

15 its like when they name a law after an abducted child so it will never happen again

[16] Girardi?

[17] well played

If I recall, Hanley was a bit in the Lars Anderson mold when he was dealt - a former “can’t miss” prospect who had lost a lot of the bloom on his rose, but was still a decent prospect. At the time, I remember thinking, “Well, at least they were stuck with Lowell’s corpse in the deal.”

Hanley becoming a superstar made up for Lowell becoming good again.

Even a cynical politician would be envious of the way some members of the sports media are so willing to mindless advance one party’s agenda:

McCarron and Madden

Jesus Montero, a slugging catching prospect, is the key element of any deal with the Yankees as far as the Jays are concerned. Montero is the best hitter among the Yankees’ plethora of catching prospects - some scouts believe he has the potential to hit 40 home runs. The Jays likely also would require either Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in the deal and perhaps another prospect, such as outfielder Austin Jackson.

[...]

Regardless of what happens with Halladay, there are some in baseball who believe there is pressure on both teams to make a splash this winter.

“They have to keep their reputation,” a baseball executive said, referring to the Yankees. “Mr. Steinbrenner, he’s back winning now and he doesn’t want to stop. And if Boston wants to get back in it, they are going to have to get big guys this winter.”

Lee and Santana were traded for a fraction of that price.

And I seriously doubt that anyone really knows George’s state of mind.

“They have to keep their reputation,” a baseball executive said, referring to the Yankees.

this is…stupid. 

World Champions. 

i would say that compared to almost every offseason of the last decade, there is the least amount of “pressure” to “make a splash”. 

Joba/Hughes, Montero, and Jackson for one year of Halladay?  give me a break.

this is…stupid.

The Yankees aren’t even a wild card team. < /MSM and ESPN eggperts>

Seriously man, I know we overhype our prospects and all that, but that trade is a fairy tale.

Well, to be fair, it’s for one year of Halladay and the opportunity to sign him for further seasons without competing with other clubs.

That having been said, the McCarron and Madden should go do something really, really bad to themselves.  Or to each other.  Whatever.

Is Lee even that much worse of a value than Halladay over the next five years (factoring in how “cheap” Lee is in 2010)?

Because the Phillies didn’t even give up their number TWO prospect for Lee, while the Yankees are supposed to give up not only THEIR number one, but a guy who is in the top five prospects in all of baseball!

Halladay can’t possibly be worth that much more than Lee, can he?

My apologies for my lack of clarity. I meant that as “the newspaper columnists can’t possibly think Halladay is worth that much more than Lee, can they?”

I know WE all get that Halladay is not “worth” Montero.

I seriously doubt that anyone really knows George’s state of mind.

Sadly, I think we all know the state of George’s mind these days.

Well, to be fair, it’s for one year of Halladay and the opportunity to sign him for further seasons without competing with other clubs.

But the opportunity to pay market value for his services for three or four years and then overpay him for two or three years after that isn’t worth all that much when you get right down to it.  By the time Santana’s contract is done, people won’t be talking nearly so much about how badly the Twins messed that one up, and Santana was four years younger than Halladay is now at the time he was traded.

The MSM seems to be catching on to the Halladay trade dilemma outlined so nicely starting with [6] in this thread.  From MLBTR:

Cafardo doesn’t think that Roy Halladay will be a Red Sox next season. He can’t see a trade happening “unless some sense of realism overtakes the Blue Jays” and they lower the asking price for their ace.

The Jays have to ask for the moon, and get a good chunk of what they ask for.  But any other team’s GM would be out of his mind to give up more than one top prospect and a couple more high-risk, high-upside guys.  Think about it, the most that any of us would really want to give up for Halladay is both an overpay and not close to enough to satisfy a Jays fan.  It is very hard to imagine a match on this one.

[24] Everyone overhypes their prospects. But I believe there are a few prospects that really cannot be overhyped. They may not succeed, but the combination of potential and chances of reasonable success are too high to discount. Montero is one of them.

Well, to be fair, it’s for one year of Halladay and the opportunity to sign him for further seasons without competing with other clubs.

There’s not actually too much value to this, since you have to give money comparable to what the player would get in free agency, although it increases your chances of getting that specific player.

Tree and MC,
I agree with both of you completely.  It was no more than a caveat “to be fair,” to be completely fair, to the opposition, before agreeing that the opposition suggestion is STILL utterly absurd.

Well, to be fair, it’s for one year of Halladay and the opportunity to sign him for further seasons without competing with other clubs.

Is there any guarantee of this? Also, isn’t this what the Yankees want to do, as this is where they can use their greatest leverage? I am supremely in the ‘pass’ category for Halladay. If the Yankees want to make a big splash, stick to the plan. If they’re willing to part with the guys mentioned in these articles, they should be looking at somewhat cost controlled and substantially younger pitchers.

Would Kei Igawa + <strike>cash</strike> IPK + Melky get this done?

Fixed.

Is there any guarantee of this?

Anthopoulos has said that the Jays would allow a window if requested.  And even if a team acquiring Halladay didn’t work out an extension before finalizing the trade, they would have a full year to negotiate one before anybody else had a crack at him.  Other than that, what kind of guarantee are you looking for?

Not that I think it would be a good thing anyway.  It just creates the illusion that you’re buying more than the Jays actually have to sell.

If they’re willing to part with the guys mentioned in these articles…

I really doubt that they are.  Same should go for other teams.

Why would the Jays want Melky, Ted?  They’ve got a $20M a year center fielder.

I can see Joba, Hughes or Montero being sticking points on deals. I can’t imagine that AJax would be one. Certainly he is very likely to be a regular CF and is very close, but do the Yankees really value him that highly?

If the package in a trade is Jesus the catcher + Joba or Hughes + Action Jackson, the return better be King Felix (with a below market value extension).

If that is the Jays actual asking price, after Cashman finishes laughing, he should say, “I think we will just wait until next off-season and sign Doc. Enjoy the draft picks, and continuing to miss the play-offs for another 16 consecutive seasons. Peace out. WORLD FARNSING CHAMPS!”

[35] Melky in LF? Also, it’s the standard Yankees message board trade offer. Although a new one probably needs to be thought up soon, as Igawa’s contract will eventually expire, Melky isn’t free anymore, and IPK is probably the 6th starter heading into next season.

Halladay (and his agent) have to know that most teams are adverse to giving up high end prospects/young players and making a $100+ million investment in him. Beyond that, it seems logical that he wouldn’t want the team that trades for him to be weakened by having to pay an exorbitant price in player personnel assets. So it’s in his best interests to use his NTC in a way that confers leverage on the team he that he wants to join. He can do that by telling the Jays that he will only approve a trade to one team.

[39] And that team will be the Red Sox, which is why they will get him for a package of Tazawa, Casey Kelly, and Mike Lowell.

“There’s definitely a premium that teams pay to “superstars” that are able to bring 4+ WAR per season to a team.”

“Another way to think of it is that the wins/players market isn’t particularly liquid.”

What’s the right way to measure this - to come up with the utility function or whatever the right economics term is?  In [11] I proposed a very crude test - if there’s something smarter then we could in better conscience as SG to run it [semi-regularly].

#6 analysis seems right to me, except that I think Toronto will accept much less than they’re asking for.  I think Toronto is under a lot of pressure to trade Halliday, rather than let him walk at the end of the season and get nothing but draft picks.  I would say, forget about offering Montero or Melky or Gardner or Austin Jackson.  I think a package of a decent AAA player with a couple of lower level minor leaguers is what Toronto will eventually settle for, whether they get it from the Yanks or from some other team.

...rather than let him walk at the end of the season and get nothing but draft picks…

Well, two draft picks between #16 and ~#45 isn’t nothing.  The question is how much are they worth?  Add that to one year of Roy Halladay at $16.75M, and you’ve got a fair trade.  Of course, there’s also the question of how Anthopoulos wants to get that value back—does he want one really high-upside player or would he rather diversify the risk?  Do positional needs matter?  Does he want near MLB-ready players, or is he embarking on a five-year plan?  Etc, etc, etc.

I would say, forget about offering Montero or Melky or Gardner or Austin Jackson.

I would offer Cabrera or Gardner in a heartbeat, if I could think of a plausible reason why Toronto would want either one of them.  Sure, they’re better than Joe Inglett, but I don’t think that’s the standard.

I think a package of a decent AAA player with a couple of lower level minor leaguers is what Toronto will eventually settle for, whether they get it from the Yanks or from some other team.

You know why is decent in AAA…Kei Igawa!

Does he want near MLB-ready players, or is he embarking on a five-year plan?

When does Vernon Wells albatross around the Jays’ neck expire? That’s probably about the time they have a shot to actually compete.

I would say, forget about offering Montero or Melky or Gardner or Austin Jackson.

If anyone actually wants Melky or Gardner in a trade for a player that immediately increases the Yankees chances to win another WS, I will personally pack Melky’s/Gardner’s bags and drive them to the airport.

[44] Reportedly Igawa would actually prefer to stay in AAA over being traded. He’s a weird guy.

How about a Win-Win ? We ship Igawa to Toronto as part of the trade, and they can send him down to Las Vegas to play for the 51’s.

[46] Igawa already has the Terminator shades to handle that Vegas sun.

[46] Igawa will only accept a trade to the Crazy 88s.

[48] I have a feeling if Matsui isn’t a Yankee next year that is who he will play for as well. He has been using Battle Without Honor or Humanity as his plate appearance entrance music.

I’d be happy to trade Melky and some minor leaguers for Halliday, if the money going to Halliday doesn’t prevent the Yanks from signing a strong left fielder and DH and re-signing Andy Pettitte.  However, suppose Halliday gets 4 years at $92 million.  And, suppose all that money means that the Yanks can’t afford to sign Damon, Matsui and Pettitte or similarly strong players. 

The rotation is CC, Halliday, AJ, Phil, Joba, and maybe Gaudin, if they sign him. That’s very strong, especially the top two. OTOH LF and DH are minor leaguers. CF is Gardner full-time. Is that a better team than one that has no Halliday, but has Pettitte, Damon and Matui, or their equivalents?

According to Cot’s, the 2010 payroll currently stands at approximately $170 million.

Trading for Halldady would add another $15.75 million. If they truly want to reduce the payroll to just under $200 million, as some have suggested, that would leave about $14 million to sign Pettitte, a LFer, a DH*, and to re-sign Hughes, Joba, Melky, DRob, Gardner, Melancon, Gaudin, Pena, Cervelli…

If Cot’s numbers are accurate, that would probably preclude the possibility of re-signing Pettitte and Damon. Even if they kept the payroll at the same level it was in 2009 ($201,449,189 according to Cot’s), there would still be roster construction issues.

If they do trade for Halladay and sign him to a long-term contract, I think they can reduce his 2010 salary by some pre-determined percentage, but I could be wrong.

*Cot’s has Juan Miranda making $535,000 in 2010. There has been speculation that he will be given an opportunity to be part of the mix at DH.

Also Igawa’s $4 million and Brackman’s $838,000 are included in the $170 million.

What’s the right way to measure this - to come up with the utility function or whatever the right economics term is?

I did a Google search originally just wanting to find an article about Victor Wang’s valuations and a trade model based on them, but I found that Beyond the Boxscore already used it for an analysis at trading for Halladay, though that was done in July (there’s a link to their methods at the bottom).

There is also a gentleman named Adam Guttridge who used Wang’s work for a trade calculator as well.

I know people have concerns about the model, but I think they often take the valuations for prospects too literally.  The valuations Wang uses gives you good starting point for comparisons.  You set up the spreadsheet starting with the “stock” values.  Then you can adjust them based on how you see fit.  For example, you may feel that the current crop of prospects is weak, so a top-10 player today would “normally” be a top-25, but not top-10, and you dock accordingly.  Or you feel the star player being traded for “puts a team over the top”, and you can give more value for the “contention bonus”.

Remember, these trade calculators set up the formula, it is up to you to plug the values in for the variables.  Using previous analysis to determine the worth of a win, the worth of prospects (in wins), and the projections of established players (in wins) is a good start, but you can adjust those for whatever reason.

When does Vernon Wells albatross around the Jays’ neck expire?

Oh, come on now.  Wells only has four years and $94.5M left on his deal.

Oops, messed up the settings on the ol’ time machine there.  It’s really still five years and $107M on the Wells contract.  With a full no-trade clause.

BTW, 2010 was a very good year for the Yankees.