Not sure how I feel about this on yet.

I’m against it.

Don’t get me wrong, Granderson’s great and all, and the deal certainly could be worse, but the Yankees #6 starter and their 2nd best positional prospect (plus a mildly effective major league reliever) seems like overkill.

I suppose it is a sign that the Yankees just flat-out do not believe that AJ will ever be a great player.

I guess this is our new winter meeting thread.

Ha. Per Mike, “You know none of us are good at following rules…”

But who’s going to give up all our bullpen’s home runs next year without bruney and coke? Maybe albaledejo will inherit that crown.

but the Yankees #6 starter and their 2nd best positional prospect

This to me is the key. #6 starter.. ok. 2nd best position prospect is obviously a relative term and glosses over his actual value. It sounds a lot better when you say who he really is - a 23 year old who just finished his first year in AAA, has a solid OBP, not much power, and good defense in CF. For that you get a 3.5-4 WAR player in CF for 3 years. Just like any trade, we won’t know for several years whether it was good, but I think I like it.

2nd best means nothing.  Either worth waiting on and not worth replacing with Granderson… or not.

That’s the whole point - if you don’t have better stuff in your farm system, but you do have pitching, you use the pitching to get the position players.

Initial reaction:  Love it.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-big-trade/

Cameron loves it for the Yankees.

Now Holliday gives you a real outfield.  And Nady for late-inning key pinch-hitting-for-Granderson spots.

Unless they change the fences, if folks were miffed about AJax’s power number, Comerica won’t be a friendly home park. Or am I wrong?

Granderson seems like a real nice dude, so that’s a big plus for me.

Wait… did it say anywhere whether NYA gets any MiL-ers back in this deal?

Consider also that ...

- Cashman just removed 3 guys from the 40 man roster and added only 1

- Cashman probably cut $1M in salary. So this has the 2010 payroll at ~$174.5M. We still need a LF, DH and P. 

- If they’re planning on adding a real LF (like Damon) is Melky or Gardner expendable or do you keep them both for depth? I think I could get behind Melky as the starting LF and Damon at DH.

[11] One of the original posts had ARZ sending 2 MiLers to NY, but that doesn’t seem to be in the latest report.

I keep talking myself in and out of this deal, and I don’t think I know how I feel about it anymore. But I feel like we put in a lot of effort and gave up a fair amount for another speedy, good-gloved, decent-hitting lefty centerfielder, albeit a somewhat better version than TSBG or Melky, and those two guys aren’t worthless against LHP.

I’ve got nothing against Granderson, but I’m not wild about this trade, especially if it results in not resigning Damon.

[6] Right, that’s what I meant. Saying that Austin Jackson is your 2nd best position prospect is just saying that you aren’t very deep with position prospects.

Good solid deal for the Yankees

I just don’t see any way to spin this as anything but a great move for the Yankees. Sure, if Jackson and Kennedy become 4+ WAR players down the road, it hurts, but that seems to be about Grandy’s baseline, and moving into NYS, working with Long, and being in a much better lineup should help him a lot. Plus, he plays good D. Plus hes in his prime and cost controlled.

THe thing is, trades are supposed to hurt a bit, because its quite rare to get a total steal, especially when you are talking about acquiring a cost controlled for 3 years in his prime above average center fielder. But if what hurts is giving up a pitcher who was never going to be more than your #5 starter, and a AAA CF who, if he exceeded his expectations, was about equal to the CF you just got, than what is not to like?

They still need another OF, unless CG will play left. Actually Cash could tell Damon/Matsui that, and offer them both a 1 year contract to DH and give it to whoever bites first.

I don’t like it.  I think you get 2 WAR/y free for three years at a position where you’re getting 2 WAR/y free for three years already, and you have to give up three pretty useful prospects while making two young players redundant plus the platoon issue.

Plus it’s a probably a defensive downgrade from TSBG, when the Yankees should be trying to improve run prevention more than run creation.

One of the main knocks I’ve been reading is the fact tha Granderson is a platoon player, can’t hit lefties and so on. But the other side of the coin is that he has an ops of .900 versus righties as a cf. basically he hits like a superstar against them.

Is there a reason why splits are a bad thing if your agregate line is still very good? The only one I can think of is the late innings high leverage scenario, but since it doesn’t look like he has been ph for often that has to be already accounted in his numbers. Maybe he is a 6WAR player before the 8th and a 1 WAR player afterwards, and of course the 8th is the most important inning ever, but more often than not he will give you a better chance to get there with a lead.

Is Granderson really projecting as just a ‘decent hitting’ CF?  Just like Greedy/Melky?

I have similar reactions to [14], [19], and [20].

So who’s the #2 position prospect now?

I love this trade.  They are one more hitter away from completling their lineup, and can do it either via LF or DH.  In a worst case scenerio, you slide granderson to LF, have gardner/melky in center, and find some hit-only DH on the cheap.

Ha, I guess it’s sad that we have to think about that one. Romine? Russo?

Unless they change the fences, if folks were miffed about AJax’s power number, Comerica won’t be a friendly home park. Or am I wrong?

Doubles and triples count as power too, and Ajax is pretty good at hitting those.  He’s also got good gap-power, especially to RCF.  I could see him being a 25-30 2B, 10-15 3B guy in that park, even if he only has 2-3 HR.  Sure that’s probably closer to his ceiling, but I don’t think Detroit would be upset at all if he did that.

[19] I’m in between.  I don’t like it for the reasons you state.  But I like it b/c this clearly makes the Yankees a better team next year, and isn’t likely to make them *worse* for at least 2-3 years.  Can they turn Melky (or Gardner) into Dunn (for example) and fill another hole, and get a stop-gap LF?  That would make it better, if you can connect the dots (having CG lets you trade Melky/Gardner, etc).

Rilke, 2 WAR per year at every position for the Yankees don’t get them to the postseason as often as they do. 4 WAR player being paid as a 2 is much more valuable than a 2 WAR player for this team. Im guessing the utility function for the Yankees as a function of value is highly nonlinear.

The premium for concentrating value is something someone should look more carefully. It appears the market perceives this too.

[27]
Isn’t unlikely that he reaches Granderson’s doubles and triples numbers, though, Mike K.?  They look pretty good.

[21] The playoffs probably has a preponderance of LHP, I’d think.  And division rivals ditto.

[28]
What’s funny about this kind of comment - and it seems pretty persuasive - is that it takes the conversation towards the traditional view and away from some of the more unconventional thinking suggested by a number of the ‘advanced statistics.’

Goldman suggested trying to get Willingham from WAS for LF.

[24 & 26] Probably Romine.  Other candidates would included Brandon Laird (tons of power, still young) and Slade Heathcott (though we’re not sure what we have yet).

Jonah Keri recommends: “#Yankees should now offer Reed Johnson 1-year deal to platoon with Granderson. Johnson’s 3-yr splits vs. LH: .329/.395/.483.”

http://blogs.suburbanchicagonews.com/sportsbeacon/Reed Johnson Hair.jpg

No.

For a salary dump, Detroit did very well.

[35]
Is that a statistic?

“Rilke, 2 WAR per year at every position for the Yankees don’t get them to the postseason as often as they do.”

Sure, but I’m operating under the assumption that these expenditures are at the margin.  And note that Gardner put up a 2.1 WAR in < half a season last year.  Melky put up a 1.6.  For $8 and 3 good prospects you get a guy who averaged less than 3.7 the last two years.  That $8 and 3 might be more useful for concentration or for depth.

Can they turn Melky (or Gardner) into Dunn (for example) and fill another hole, and get a stop-gap LF?  That would make it better, if you can connect the dots (having CG lets you trade Melky/Gardner, etc).

This is what I’m waiting on.  This trade isn’t going to me made in a vacuum.  I’d say Gardner (due to his service time) would have more value on the market but they obviously have to trade one of them.  Hopefully they can get a decent return on that and this trade will make more sense.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/blockbuster-three-way-trade-sends-granderson-to-yankees/

WP: No, but it would make him the ugliest Yankee since Big Unit.

(21) The talk about Granderson’s platoon splits made me think about something MGL said about Ryan Howard during the world series:

“...how a batter does overall (versus lefties and righties) tells us more than just how he does against LH or RH pitchers alone, even if we want to estimate how they will do in the future against either lefties or righties alone.

IOW, how a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between.”

Granderson
2211 AB vs rhp
685 AB vs lph (25% coming against Lee, Buerhle, Liriano, Danks, Sabathia, Lilly, Santana, Saunders)

The best case scenario is that Granderson’s career path follows Paul O’Neill’s after he was traded here.

Will seeing more left-handers make him worth less… or provide an opportunity and a stimulus to start hitting them less lousily?

If they don’t add a LF, I would prefer that Granderson play LF and Gardner play CF, at least until Gardner proves he can’t hit enough.

What’s Granderson hit distribution? Mainly a pull hitter, gap, spray? Uh, sending me to a site that provides that info is also acceptable and welcomed.

[29] I’m assuming you meant isn’t *it* unlikely, so that I’m answering the right question

He had 23 2B and 9 3B last year and Scranton isn’t particularly deep in the gaps or CF (only 400ft in center).  The year before he was 33 and 5 in AA (no idea dimensions).  I think w/ the bigger dimensions in Detroit some gap-singles become doubles, some doubles become triples, plus of course he should add *some* power as he gets older.  I don’t know if he’ll ever get the 23 Granderson got in 2007, but Granderson seems more an 8-10 3B, 25-30 2B guy, which I think Jackson could do in 2-3 years.  I don’t know if he’ll ever get up to the 20-30 HR power Granderson was doing in addition to the other XBH.

I really like Granderson’s sheer speed and power.  He always seemed good against NY, so makes the matchups with Detrot a bit easier I guess. I didn’t like the Paul ONeill Robert Kelly deal either. Paul couldn’t hit leftys either, but eventually came around. I think Granderson vastly improves our outfield but certainly has room for improvement. I think Jackson has much more to prove before he can be compared to Granderson and may never hit with the same kind of power we all were hoping for. Kennedy may yet be a Mussina, but may wash out just as easily. Coke was servicable but replaceable.
In summary, you have to give up some talent to acquire it. I think its a fair gamble.  I do think a right handed left fielder is needful now or at least a strong power rh DH.  You have to think this has Damon thinking that its pretty soon or never if he wants to be a Yankee.

[40] Good point on Damon.  They definitely shouldn’t go higher than 2/$20m now.

In other news, Gammons is apparently openly moving to NESN.  At least I presume that this is what leaving ESPN means.

Looking at Granderson’s sponsor page on BB-Ref, the exiration on Jan 2010 seems just about right.

[30]I’m not so sure there are more LHP in the AL East than in general. From a quick browse, Boston has 1 starter and 1 reliever. TB has 1 starter and 2 relievers. Baltimore has no starters and 1 reliever. Toronto has 2 starters and 2 relievers. But the point of the extra lefties in the postseason is valid.

[38] SSS on both ends of the argument. CG has averaged 4.7 WAR the last 4 years. Melky probably averaged 1. Gardner has less than a full season on the majors.

CG is probably a top 5 or top 8 CF in MLB. And he is more valuable playing half his games at DNYS than at Comerica.

They definitely shouldn’t go higher than 2/$20m now.

That’s way too high, imo. One year at no more than $8m with a team option for 2011. They already have too much money committed for that year.

[47]
I don’t get those numbers.  CG’s looks to have about three or four more triples than that and at least that many more doubles - and the HRs certainly count, too.  AJ’s average prediction must be less than that, I’d think.  He COULD do that… or he COULD end up being a flop in the MLs.  Don’t see the comparable.

[53] I’m just basing it off of Boras saying Abreu’s contract is the baseline for Damon (and Abreu got 2/$19m).  That made more sense then when he compared Damon to Jeter and Posada.  The market could just not be there for Damon, and they could end up with him for a lower price.

50: he lives on the Cape, so I presume he doesn’t feel like driving to Bristol anymore.

love the trade.

granderson is who the yanks want ajax to be.
coke is replaceable.
ian kennedy’s ceiling was the 5th man in the rotation.

good job cash.

[54]
What I mean to say, Mike, is that comparable to CG in doubles and triples is probably a best-case scenario for AJ.  And fewer HRs.  And comparable defense.  And that best-case result can’t be considered likely.  And it wouldn’t have arrived for an indeterminate time yet, if it ever arrived.

Granderson’s pretty useless against lefties, but he plays good defense, is under 30, and is signed to a very reasonable contract for the next 4 years.  All you need a platoon partner like the aforementioned Reed Johnson or Xavier Nady (ie. a guy that the Yankees should want on their bench anyway) and we’re looking really solid in CF.

Does the absence of a near term prospect like AJax mean going harder after Holliday? Not that it necessarily should have been, but one reason not to go for long term FA deals was that AJax was near ready.

What are official ‘prime years’ for performance?  Isn’t 29 pretty good for that?

I thought I posted this but I guess it got stuck in the tubes somewhere. Cash might be surrounding the Core 4 + Alex with guys in their prime (Granderson, Swisher, CC, Tex). Then do the same for the latter group when the time comes…

Oh, and I hate the trade. Granderson is pretty solid, to my eyes.

Vill, LoHud just posted a link to THIS:

http://www.detroittigersweblog.com/2009/11/playing-in-the-spray-curtis-granderson/

Is Holliday better than Swisher defensively?

against righties:

LF Granderson
CF Gardner
RF Holliday

DH Swisher

Against lefties:

LF Holliday
CF Melky
RF Swisher

DH Posada + old guys.

[58] Okay, that made more sense.  I don’t know if that is *best case* for Jackson.  Somewhere between average and best.  I think the best case is if some of his flyouts start turning into HR and he’s getting those 25 2B and 10 3B along with 10-15HR.  A lot of how many doubles and triples he gets will be based on playing time, I think.  But yes, he’s 2-5 years away from that level of production.  And your posts read like I’m comparing why they should have kept Jackson over Granderson, but I was just responding to what I thought Comerica would do to Jackson’s lack of power.

BTW, I think 29 is considered to be near the end of your prime.  The “old” prime was 28-32, but now I think it is more considered like 26-29.

“but he plays good defense”

Depends how you read the trends.  He’s been great in the past, -0.4 WAR/year the last two years.

“What are official ‘prime years’ for performance?  Isn’t 29 pretty good for that?”

It might be a bit younger for CF.

“I’m not so sure there are more LHP in the AL East than in general. From a quick browse, Boston has 1 starter and 1 reliever. TB has 1 starter and 2 relievers. Baltimore has no starters and 1 reliever. Toronto has 2 starters and 2 relievers.”

I don’t care about Baltimore yet, or Toronto that much.  The argument depends I guess on the difference between 1 and the average.

[65] Depends who you talk to.  UZR I think has him as one of the better defensive LF from the past several years.  However, from your lineup, I don’t think Holliday has ever played an inning in RF.  Doesn’t have the arm.

[62] Shouldn’t that be the general strategy for avoiding big cyclical shifts in overall team performance?  A nice balanced age distribution is what I’d think you’d be shooting for.

Well here’s some truly depressing news:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4725305

Yo, check out his Home-Road splits last year—he OPSed .861 on the road and .691 at home. Comerica killed him. He hit 20 of his 30 bombs on the road. He OPSed equal in 2008, but OPSed over 100 points higher on the road in 2007. If Yankee stadium actually INFLATES his numbers at home instead of killing them, then he might be the best CFer in baseball, even with his horrible OPS against lefties.

[71]
Also, the spray charts look like lots of outs near the right field wall in Comerica.

CG was hurt in 2008, per his own admission it affected his fielding. I’d guess he is a 5-10 UZR per year for the next 2 years.

[64] Thanks. Pretty interesting Tiger hit/out chart post.

Summarizing, Granderson is more of a pull hitter. Lot more pop up outs in 2009.

I wonder what hitting slot Granderson will fill in the lineup? Is he a 2 hole hitter if Damon exits or towards the end of the lineup?

If Yankee stadium actually INFLATES his numbers at home

If?

[75] Yeah, I think he’s in the 2-hole if Damon isn’t there.  If Damon does come back…5 maybe?  Lefty behind ARod, in front of Posada or Swisher (when Posada sits), followed by Cano.

[76] He could pull a Swisher (776 OPS at home, 945 on the road).

If SSF doesn’t like the trade, then I’m all for it.

CG has to be one of the easiest guys to root for in the game, too.  He busts his hump and clearly enjoys the game, on top of deriving much of his value in the fun-to-watch ways: power, speed and trick defense.  Not much more to be said than what everyone else has…

The “old” prime was 28-32, but now I think it is more considered like 26-29.

Is this POOYA (no insult) or is this becoming common wisdom?

Nobody’s confirming the trade.
According to LoHud, players haven’t heard.
The sites are stuck on “on the verge of…”

Sounds like White Sox pursuing Matsui.  This Granderson deal, if its truly done, could make some other dominos fall pretty soon.  I am of the opinion as much as we want Damon for the right years and price, he will opt for a longer term deal as long as the destination is a true contending team. I mean, he’s done it before hasn’t he?  Will be interesting-what do you all think?

Is this POOYA (no insult) or is this becoming common wisdom?

None taken.  Pretty sure Bill James came up with that years ago (don’t know if he was the first), I possibly read it first in Win Shares or The New Historical Baseball Abstract.  Pretty sure it has been confirmed by others in WAR related research (e.g. MGL, Tom Tango, etc).  Or rather, confirmed that it is somewhere in the 26-29 range.  I think there is still some debate over PEAK age (though pretty sure 29 is considered post-peak), and whether the exact range is 25-28, 26-30, etc.  I’m pretty sure *most* serious analysts think 31 is past-prime. 

However of course there are the usual caveats that players age differently, this applies to the large group of all major-leaguers, etc, etc.

If Matsui goes, I wish him good luck.  There’s still Thome and Johnson out there for the DH spot.  I like HazMat and would like him back, but it’s no big deal because there are multiple options, all pretty good.

LF and pitching are the issues now.

Seriously, if you double his road numbers, these are what his numbers for the 2009 season would have been:
.267 BA
40 HRS
74 RBIs
100 Runs
26 SBs

These are what his numbers would have been in 2007 in a neutral park:
.318
26 HRs
26 triples
40 doubles
76 RBIs
128 Runs scored

And if they sit him 20 games a year against lefties, then his numbers will be even better.

The way I understand the whole peak age thing it’s that defense peaks early (early to mid 20s), offense later (late twenties, maybe even early 30s?).  My understanding, as usual, may be poor.

he will opt for a longer term deal as long as the destination is a true contending team. I mean, he’s done it before hasn’t he?

Two schools of thought.  1) Damon is a mercenary who isn’t tied to anything other than getting a good contract. 2) Take Damon at his word that he felt slighted by the Red Sox and that they didn’t really want him, that any offer was them just saving face, etc.

If the first is true he’s gone.  If the second is true, as long as he feels the Yanks are being up-front with him and bargaining in good faith he could still come back, as long as the terms are fair.

[85] I think that’s generally right, BUT split offense up into hitting and baserunning.  Baserunning I think peaks fairly early as well, but hitting progresses into the early 30’s.  So a player around 27-28 is still is just starting to decline w/ baserunning and fielding, and closing in on the peak of hitting.  For a few years these (roughly) balance out…or so the theory goes.

Man, where the heck WOULD he bat if Damon re-signed? He seems like an odd fit for the #5 spot (especially since the Yankees still don’t know who their 2010 DH is), but I guess that’s where he’d go.

What do you folks think happens if Damon does re-sign?

Is that it, or do the Yankees still try to add a DH?

Isn’t there some thought that your “second leadoff guy” (gets on base a bit, can run a bit) should bat 6 or 7 to maximize the hitting that the weaker guys in the bottom of the order do?

I think if Damon resigns, he splits time between DH and LF.  I don’t think they try to add another hitter after that.  Don’t think they would need to either.

If Damon comes back, and we get a real DH like I want…

Jeter
Damon
Tex
ARod
DH (Matsui, Thome, Johnson…)
Posada
Granderson
Swisher
Cano

Yummy.

although looking at that lineup, you could bat anybody anywhere.

This is giving me a headache…

Another option would be to sign Mike Cameron and Damon, with the idea being Damon is primary DH, LF against LHP.  Cameron plays all the time (CF or LF, whichever).  Granderson plays vs RHP, sits against most LHP.

Damon isn’t great against lefties, but he doesn’t disappear like Granderson.

[93] See my posts above.  Plus, do you have any LHP on the way?

I posted three straight posts in the earlier thread, only to realize there is a new one. I so 2000 and late.

Just because O’Neill learned to hit lefties doesn’t mean CG will so if his splits stay the same is he a platoon player or an everyday player?  Too bad Melky hits better from the left side then the right.

[50] In addition, Bill Madden is now a Hall of Famer in the same sense Gammo is. Must suck for him.

I thought we agreed to not use the term “core four” anymore.

[94] is a great example of why this trade is so good.  Granderson provides a ton of flexibility for the rest of the offseason.  They can go big time player at LF, or they can go with defense in the OF by having granderson play leftfield.