So you are telling me that there is one in a thousand chance Yankees lose all remaining games? Also, I have to wait three stinkin’ days before the Yankees lock up the division?

Steve Lombardi is intrigued by this idea and wants to subscribe to your newsletter.

The best part about the pie charts is it kinda sorta looks like I’m doing work.

The pie says 25% win total probability for 100 wins, but the chart below says 12.9%.  The other total probabilities don’t match up either.  What am I missing?

I’d love the division to be locked up with a win on Sunday.

A chart for AL east division winners would be satisfying.

The pie says 25% win total probability for 100 wins, but the chart below says 12.9%.  The other total probabilities don’t match up either.  What am I missing?

I must be pulling in the wrong data on the chart, I’ll check it in a bit.

at least they’re in AND we get a non 10pm game today.

Yeah, it seems odd that 99 wins would have such a high probability. How likely is it that the Yankees go 3-8?

Man, today is gonna be super house money lineup, methinks. I predict

CF-Gardner
DH-Damon
1B-Teixeira
2B-Cano
RF-Hinske
3B-Hairston
C-Cervelli
LF-Duncan
SS-Pena

Lots o’ gruttiness in that lineup.  Perfect for Disney Land.

“gruttiness”? Is that guts and grit mixed together, stirred with a “ness”?

I dunno, WJ, I find it hard to believe that Damon would play against Kazmir instead of Jeter (although I can believe Jeter being the DH). However, I would also be surprised that A-Rod would not be in the lineup as DH against Kazmir.

I mean, it’s a (theoretically) tough lefty, and you’re benching your best two/only two righthanded hitters?

Allow me to make corrections to the predicted line-up.

SS-<strike>Pena</strike> Jeter
RF-<strike>Hinske</strike> Swisher
1B-Teixeira
DH-<strike>Damon</strike> Rodriguez
2B-Cano
LF-<strike>Duncan</strike> Hinske
3B-Hairston
C-<strike>Cervelli</strike> Molina
CF-Gardner

I don’t see the point in giving Matsui the day off, it is not like he plays the field anyway, but if he wants to spell Matsui, maybe A-Rod is the DH. If he wants to spell Damon, why not the whole day? Also, I don’t think Jeter, Damon, Matsui and Rodriguez are all taking full days off.

If the game is a blowout, then at the end it might end up looking this what you originally posted, but I don’t think Girardi is going to go with a real crappy line-up with Kazmir on the mound. Also, Burnett seems to need his own caddy in Molina, who knows why?

“gruttiness”? Is that guts and grit mixed together, stirred with a “ness”?

Yes, a few of us introduced the term in the RLYW lexicon, just to save typing “gritty and gutty” all the time. Grutty does the job.

So I’m guessing:

CF - Gardner
SS - Jeter
1B - Teix
DH - A-Rod
LF - Duncan
RF - Melky
3B - Hairston
C - Cervelli/Molina (let’s face it, it’ll be Molina - it’s always Molina)
2B - Pena

Which gives you an INSANE back five, but still gives you a solid righthanded heavy top four.

Sam, don’t you think Swisher will get a day off with the injury?

Also, if they’d just play A-Rod at 3B with the day off tomorrow (which they won’t, but I’m just saying “if”) then you could get Posada in there as DH.

Brian, I missed the injury part, so yeah, stick in Hinske there, and put Melky in LF in that case. I would be surprised if Duncan plays the field.

C - Cervelli/Molina (let’s face it, it’ll be Molina - it’s always Molina)

Another common complaint this year, why Molina over Cervelli?  Let’s see Molina has an abysmal .269 wOBA, Cervelli is .270.  Cervelli is probably a little bit better defensively right now, and is definitely a bit better on the basepaths.  Really, there’s almost no difference between them RIGHT NOW.  Sure, next year Cervelli is likely to improve and Molina to slide, which is why Cervelli should be the BUC for next year.  But for this year?  If Molina adds anything to the intangibles - ability to help pitchers, leadership, whatever - then why not play him?  Why not reward the guy who’s been on the team for almost 3 years?  Cervelli will get his chance…and Molina playing instead of him for the next couple of weeks and the PS isn’t going to cost the Yankees.

I’m thinking Cervelli over Molina today.  Don’t know why though.

Another common complaint this year, why Molina over Cervelli?

let’s face it, it’ll be a complaint thread, it’s always a complaint thread.

FYI, the division thing is over. Exhibit A: Paul Byrd starting last night. Tito is into his September get-everyone-rested mode, not playing for the division. Apart from the battle of the B-lists this weekend, see you in October.

Someone has been clamoring for the Yanks to face Byrd.  Seems like they’ll get their chance on Sunday.

Ok, win total probability pie chart is fixed.

Even if the Red Sox weren’t in get-everyone-rested mode, the division would still be over. It’s not like they have clones of Beckett and Lester to throw out there.

if the yankees finished 3 and 7, the Sox would still have to finish 10-2. Could be close, but don’t think things will go down that bad.

Buchholz and Matsuzaka have been excellent lately. Our rotation is looking four-deep now, and we’d won 10/11 before the deluge Monday. So I don’t agree with Andrew’s point. If the Sox were hell-bent on the division title, we’d have had a shot, but Tito has more or less tossed that away this week.

Adding, I am totally on board with Tito’s plan. Rested team > one more home game.

Definitely, the Yankee too should be in get ready for the playoff mode. Girardi’s been doing that with the starters and position players.

Why no Arod today at least as dh?  I would think you would still want to try your best to win back to back in LA, given the chances you may play there in October.  If AJ bites the bit, you can always rest the regulars by the 5th inning.

What has Francona done differently than he would have done if he were gunning for a division title? Pitch the top four starters on three days’ rest? Use Papelbon in the sixth inning? What game have the Sox lost that they might have won if the Red Sox were ‘gunning’ for the division? Paul Byrd or Tim Wakefield have to start sometime, unless the Sox go with a 4-man rotation the rest of the way. No Sox starter would have had much of a chance to win yesterday.

Let’s not try and say the Red Sox ‘let’ the Yankees have the division. Even if they tried, they wouldn’t have a shot. That’s probably the biggest reason why they’ve let their foot off the gas pedal in the first place, smartly I may add.

I don’t mean to be so antagonistic. This has been the Red Sox’s MO for a long time. Wrap up a playoff spot, then cruise to October. Probably the biggest reason why the 2007 division race was so close at the end.

Buchholz and Matsuzaka have been excellent lately.

Buchholz, sure.  Matsuzaka has 2 starts under his belt since coming back, one which was 5.1 IP, 3 ER.  He’s always been a tight-rope kind of guy, but it’s tough to say he’s been excellent lately.

Paul Byrd or Tim Wakefield have to start sometime

I imagine they don’t have to start back-to-back games, though.  He didn’t have to give Lester an extra day’s rest between his last two starts either.  And I suppose he could have made more of an effort to line up his top starters to pitch against the Yankees.

This has been the Red Sox’s MO for a long time. Wrap up a playoff spot, then cruise to October.

First of all, it’s a pretty good plan and the Red Sox didn’t exactly invent it.  Second, I’m not sure what you consider to be a “long time” but the Red Sox missed the playoffs in 2006, didn’t clinch a spot until the last day of the season in 2005, and needed a 9-2 run late in 2003 to secure the wild card over the Mariners.

It was the plan in 2007 and 2008. Before that, meh.

And Matsuzaka is working off a small sample size, but he’s looked far, far better than he did in his first go-round.

I was just going to ask you to update the project clinch date numbers.  You read my mind, thanks!  -Ryan