Greetings from the beach.  I only get internet access when I’m on the roof holding my laptop above my head in one hand and a ball of aluminum foil in the other.

Good night last night out of Pettitte, it appears.

[1] Enjoy the beach. Why bother with the laptop?

iPhones are your friend.

Wait, don’t you usually spend most of your free time on the roof holding your laptop above your head in one hand and a ball of aluminum foil in the other?

I know FJM is dead and all, but I couldn’t help but chuckle a little bit on this one in the Joe Morgan chat:

Chris (Cincy)

Why are there no consistently great teams like your Reds teams of the 70’s? Even the top teams this year (Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, Dodgers) seem to struggle with their consistency. What do you think is the cause of this?

Joe Morgan(11:33 AM)

Well, that’s a great observation. The point is that there aren’t any great teams any more. Great teams have speed, pitching, defense, hitting, power. You don’t have anybody with that combination any more. You have good teams, not great teams. The weaknesses show up more. Any time that happens, you’ll lose 3-4 in a row. When your strengths show, you win 5 in a row. That’s why the good teams have stretches. The Yankees won 9 in a row, but then lost 3 straight in Chicago. One thing to watch the rest of the way is whichever team can shorten their losing streaks, that team will win the division.

From reading this, it would appear that the great Reds Machine never lost two games in a row, and usually had 5 games winning streaks. That would have put them at approximately .85 winning percentage, or a 136 game regular season.

Wait, don’t you usually spend most of your free time on the roof holding your laptop above your head in one hand and a ball of aluminum foil in the other?

Of course I do. How else can I keep the CIA from monitoring my transmissions?

The sad part about the Morgan quote is that he’s so close to actually being right. There aren’t any really outstanding teams this year, maybe LA. But then he starts talking nonsense, apparently not remembering when the ‘75 Reds lost 6 in a row.

Joba’s estranged mom is in some kind of trouble again.  I really feel bad for him sometimes.  The combination of his dad, mom, and the early fame/pressure.  It’s amazing he’s made it this far.

5. I miss FJM so much.

Another gem from Morgan:

Elvis (Graceland)

Do you think Matt Holliday can keep it up? Why was he not playing like this in Oakland?

Joe Morgan(11:35 AM)

Well, first, it’s kind of like what I said about Milton Bradley. Holliday is a good hitter. He struggled early on, but he started to get hot right before he left Oakland. That doesn’t mean he’ll hit like that the rest of the season. Playing in Oakland was a downer for him, because you’re playing on a team that doesn’t excite you. It’s a boring team to watch. They either strike out, walk or try to hit HRs. Jack Cust is a typical Oakland hitter. He either walks or hits home runs. It’s just not an interesting team and that had an effect on Holliday. Plus the ball park is not easy to hit in.

I think he may be onto something when he says Oakland is not much of a fun team to watch for him. That is much in the eyes of a beholder. But to assume that what Jack Cust does with his ABs had an impact on Holliday’s performance is pure bullshit. Particularly when he himself says he was heating up before being traded.

Why could he just say that it’s not a lot of fun to lose?  Holliday didn’t have to get excited about watching the A’s, he had to get excited about playing for them.

SG, what else is there to do in your mom’s basement while you run these simulations? Do you write D&D campaigns? Play Atari? What?

Greetings from the beach.  I only get internet access when I’m on the roof holding my laptop above my head in one hand and a ball of aluminum foil in the other.

I’d quit that when the thunderheads start rolling in…

RB in NY, RB in NY.
This is the CIA.
You are surrounded.
Put the ball of tin foil down and come out, slowly, with your hands upon your head.

From the Times write-up of last night’s game, regarding his career numbers off Halladay (32h/90ab): “There’s no rhyme or reason,” Damon said. “Sometimes you have to be lucky off certain guys. There are some guys I see well and I don’t hit off of. It’s just one of those weird baseball things.”

I love that he has an intuitive sense of small sample size.

Sometimes I gaze at FJM’s goodbye post, hoping against hope that they’ve started a comeback.

SG, what else is there to do in your mom’s basement while you run these simulations? Do you write D&D campaigns? Play Atari? What?

I’m proud to say I have never in my life played D&D.  Atari, I have played.  I used to tear up Pitfall and Chopper Command.  Unfortunately, I can’t account for the whereabouts of the old 2600 these days.

So, about the playoff odds and team strength, it seems to me that only two teams are better than the Yankees by this method: Dodgers and Red Sox. I think I can live with that, given that the difference seems to be within random statistical variance.

“1/3 YTD WPCT, 1/3 YTD Pythagenpat”

These assume a flat distribution of opponent strength, right?  Is that reasonable?  Maybe put up estimated strength of schedule if it’s meaningful and varies.

Aren’t the Rays coming in a bit low, just based on those run differentials? [showing my ignorance perhaps]

Nice to see that although FJM is no more, people are still baiting Joe with words like ‘consistent’ and ‘keep it up’.

These assume a flat distribution of opponent strength, right?

Nope.

Is that reasonable?

Nope.

The nice thing about this Monte Carlo simulator is that it plays out the remaining schedule with the actual games. I can pull together the strength of schedule from it but I am not near the spreadsheet now, so I’ll do it later.

Aren’t the Rays coming in a bit low, just based on those run differentials?

The Rays are probably suffering from a)their strength of schedule AND b)the fact that they’re so many games behind the Yanks and Red Sox already.  They are certainly good enough to outplay both going forward, but the odds of outplaying both by 5-6 games with fewer than 60 left is pretty slim.

[showing my ignorance perhaps]

That’s already shown by your allegiance my friend.

“These assume a flat distribution of opponent strength, right?”

‘Nope.’

I was referring to the YTD #s, which are pre-MC.

Clagget on his way to Toronto to eat up innings if/when Mitre gets into trouble. Could a certain not very good utility IF be on his way out or will the Yankees coumpound the Ransom stupidity by sending down Melancon?  During a live chat a poster said Mitre should pitch the whole game no matter what and I added that they could bring up Clagget and DFA Ransom saving the BP and eliminating detritus.

“These assume a flat distribution of opponent strength, right?”

Ah, my bad. Yeah, pre MC numbers are based on what the teams have done so far, which would be impacted by strength of schedule.  I think incorporating the 2009 projections mitigates that somewhat, but I’ll pull together SOS data pre-August 5 and see what it says.

I think they’d be more likely to send down Robertson than Melancon.  Or they might DL Aceves retroactive to August 1.  Clagget is back down tomorrow no matter what though, since Albaladejo is eligible to come back up either today or tomorrow.

If they send Melancon down now given that in is last three outings he has pitched 4 1/3 shutout innings with four Ks and no BB, I will not be happy.

BTW, even if a Ransom DFA would cause much rejoicing, I’d really prefer that they not carry 13 pitchers for very long.  Bench depth is generally a lot more useful than an 8-man bullpen where only three or four guys are trusted to pitch meaningful innings anyway.

Claggett up, Ransom down: Mitre insurance.  Then tomorrow Clagget goes down, Pena back up.  I can’t see why they would do anything other than that.

Maybe they’ll recall Pena or Duncan.

True, but eventually Pena should be back up and besides depth is enhanced by individuals like Swisher, Hairston, Melky, and Damon who can slot in at multiple positions.

28:what you think makes sense, doesn’t mean its going to happen however.  I think they might keep 13 pitchers for a short while and I won’t be surprised if they feel they have to keep Ransom.  The man is out of options after all.

If Mitre has another clunker(Cash for clunkers has another meaning) what plan B is.

Headline on Yankees.com

“Mechanics key to Mitre’s effectiveness on mound”

Is that a story about his likely career in a couple of months?

Jeter SS
Damon LF
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez DH
Swisher RF
Cano 2B
Cabrera CF
Hairston 3B
Molina C

Ham: UPDATE, 3:45 p.m.: Ransom DFA’d

During a live chat a poster said Mitre should pitch the whole game no matter what

That was my plan, assuming he is ineffective and they realize after he gives up a bunch of runs that it will be his last start with the Yankees, why not just leave him in there to take one for the team? It keeps the BP fresh going into the RS series. I guess the same plan but using Claggett and Swisher if things get really bad works too. And I do know that typing this means Mitre is going to pitch 7 shutout innings and make me look like a fool. In fact, I dare Mitre to prove me wrong.

I won’t be surprised if they feel they have to keep Ransom.  The man is out of options after all.

And they just can’t risk losing a player of Ransom’s quality on waivers. It’s not like they have two more viable UIF on the 40 man. (Not a shot at bebop, taking a shot at Cashman for his mancrush on Ransom)

So is this VC day?

And there was much rejoicing!

Ham: UPDATE, 3:45 p.m.: Ransom DFA’d

Sigh of relief. I wish Ransom best going forward, but he really doesn’t belong on a MLB roster.

HE GONE!

[40]

please don’t do that

TED I know you weren’t taking a shot at me for my tongue in cheek Ransom remark.  I was the villager with the biggest torch storming Cash’s castle with the placard let my Cody go.

Ham: UPDATE, 3:45 p.m.: Ransom DFA’d

I am still worried I will tune into the game to find out Ransom is at 3B and they have DFA’d Hairston. Ransom Voorhees can’t be killed.

ahaha, sorry

In other transaction news,  Boston called up our old friend Billy Traber for tonight’s game.

An aluminum foil hat is much better, and frees your hand for other uses.

I can’t see why they would do anything other than that.

Because they probably think they’re going to need insurance for every Mitre start, and you can’t DFA a BUI and call up a reliever every five days.

[45]

Yes, but people might think you were weird if you wore an aluminum foil hat.

[46]

If you have a number of candidates with an option, and the only limitation is that you have to leave each one down, once sent down, for 10 or 11 days, shouldn’t you be able to set up a ‘rotation’ like that, MC?  Or am I (probably!) misunderstanding the optioning or other rules?

To finish the thought, even if Mitre pitches passably tonight, he’s still going to be on a short leash next time out.  And if he pitches himself out of the rotation tonight, they still need somebody to be the fifth starter two more times through the rotation before they get an off day that would let them skip that spot.  Whoever that pitcher is, he will also need insurance, either because of a high probability of suckitude or because of a low pitch count limit.  So much as I dislike carrying 13 pitchers, it would not surprise me to see them do it for a while, shuttling guys like Clagett and Albaladejo and Robertson and maybe even Ramirez up and down to be the 13th man.

Also, they’ve got to make a decision on Marte by the 16th, I think.

shouldn’t you be able to set up a ‘rotation’ like that

Yeah, sure.  My point was that if you want to have a 13th pitcher every fifth day and a BUI for the other four, you need more BUIs on your 40-man roster than the Yankees currently sport.  I suppose they could add someone like Bernier to the 40 now that there’s a spot open, but I’m not sure that’s a good use of that slot, especially if they’re trying to work a waiver trade for a fifth starter.

When Wang was struggling early in the year should Cash have come up with a better contingency then Mitre? And whose next if he stinks up the joint again?

Does anyone know if Marte’s velocity has improved.  From the story in today’s NY Times I get the impression that they are not in a hurry to recall him.

I didn’t know that this could happen: my finger hurts from scrolling with my mouse. I’ve been photo editing all day and scrolling quite a bit.

The more you know…

When Wang was struggling early in the year should Cash have come up with a better contingency then Mitre? And whose next if he stinks up the joint again?

You mean Hughes?

They fucked that one up when they permanently moved Hughes to the BP for a not ready Wang.

I don’t understand why they haven’t recalled Marte. He’s been pretty effective in Scranton, and he’s been there for a while.

“So much as I dislike carrying 13 pitchers, it would not surprise me to see them do it for a while, shuttling guys like Clagett and Albaladejo and Robertson and maybe even Ramirez up and down to be the 13th man. “

With a shuttle in place, do you really need the 13?  Can’t you just stay with twelve and constantly cycle out the guy who’s tired?  With a Mitre start every 5 games, and a guy having to stay down 10, 3-4 guys shuttling through the 12th spot should always give you a fresh arm backing up Mitre.

Hughes, Aceves, and IPK were all ahead of Mitre, but shit happened.

IPK’s aneurysm has really hurt the Yankees. Fortunately for both parties, he seems to be recovering well.

With a shuttle in place, do you really need the 13?

Then why did they just add a 13th?

who cares in they have 13 pitchers? Cody Ransom is no longer on the team!

I wonder if the thinking tonight is not to use Mo/Hughes (26 pitches each last night) barring extrardinary circumstances.

Swisher sitting 2 nights in a row—something up there?

Never mind on [60].

With a shuttle in place, do you really need the 13?  Can’t you just stay with twelve and constantly cycle out the guy who’s tired?

When you option someone they have to stay down for at least 10 days.  If the shuttle has 4 or 5 guys then it would probably work fine.  A shuttle of Albaladejo, Claggett, Edwar and Melancon may do the trick.  I think Melancon should get more innings, but if he isn’t he may as well be pitching some in AAA.

Regarding strength of schedule, here are all MLB team’s opponent’s winning percentage, using 1/2 actual and 1/2 Pythagenpat through games of August 4.

And who’s next if he [Mitre] stinks up the joint again?

Jon Garland?  Aaron Harang?

The Os and Jays I understand.  The Marlins surprise me.  They play the Nationals a lot…

The Marlins surprise me.  They play the Nationals a lot…

Yeah, that surprised me too, but they did get three against Boston, three against the Yanks and six against Tampa Bay.

Maybe they’re almost done with the Phillies (and Dodgers) but have a bunch left with the Nats (and Padres)?

Maybe they’re almost done with the Phillies (and Dodgers) but have a bunch left with the Nats (and Padres)?

Without looking at the breakdown, their schedule does get easier from here on out.

Opponent winning percentages from August 5 through end of season.

Red Sox   .506
Yankees   .502

What’s that worth over the rest of the season if the teams are of equal strength?

What’s that worth over the rest of the season if the teams are of equal strength?

Not a whole lot, really.  Figure a .506 team would be equivalent to 162 * .506 = 81.972, and a .502 team would be equivalent to 162 * .502 = 81.324.  So over 162 games, it’s only a difference of around .6 wins.  Over 1/3 of the season, it’s only worth about .2 wins.

Oh yeah, I could have done that calculation.