The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Friday, May 2, 2008

MLB Actual Standings vs Projected Standings as of May 1,2008

I don't feel about writing about last night's 8-4 loss to the Tigers, so here's a little comparison of how MLB is shaping up so far this season compared to the preseason projections I ran. The first group of columns if or actual YTD performance, the second set is for the average of the projection systems I ran in the post linked above, and then the last set are the differences between the two. So in the case the Yankees, they were projected to win 18 of 30 games and score 171 runs while allowing 142. Instead they've won 4 fewer games and scored 42 fewer runs than expected.

This doesn't factor in difficulty of schedule which may impact some teams more than others, I am strictly multiplying overall 162 game projections time actual games played. That shouldn't be a huge impact, but it should be considered.

American League Actual Projected Diff
EAST W L RS RA W L RS RA W L RS RA
Tampa Bay 16 12 134 111 14 14 141 138 2 -2 -7 -27
Boston 17 13 136 133 17 13 159 137 0 0 -23 -4
Baltimore 15 13 118 126 12 16 130 158 3 -3 -12 -32
NY Yankees 14 16 129 141 18 12 171 142 -4 4 -42 -1
Toronto 12 17 119 112 15 14 139 131 -3 3 -20 -19
CENTRAL W L RS RA
Chicago Sox 14 12 131 105 12 14 126 139 2 -2 5 -34
Cleveland 14 15 130 122 16 13 150 132 -2 2 -20 -10
Detroit 14 15 150 152 16 13 154 136 -2 2 -4 16
Minnesota 13 14 102 122 13 14 121 131 0 0 -19 -9
Kansas City 12 16 101 131 13 15 131 146 -1 1 -30 -15
WEST W L RS RA
LA Angels 18 12 148 144 16 14 148 136 2 -2 0 8
Oakland 18 12 150 110 15 15 141 143 3 -3 9 -33
Seattle 13 16 129 122 14 15 128 137 -1 1 1 -15
Texas 11 18 132 178 13 16 146 160 -2 2 -14 19
National League
EAST W L RS RA W L RS RA W L RS RA
Philadelphia 16 13 136 124 15 14 156 145 1 -1 -20 -21
NY Mets 14 12 119 118 15 11 134 113 -1 1 -15 5
Florida 15 13 124 142 12 16 129 151 3 -3 -5 -9
Atlanta 12 15 129 107 15 12 137 127 -3 3 -8 -20
Washington 12 17 107 136 13 16 137 156 -1 1 -30 -20
CENTRAL W L RS RA
St. Louis 18 11 135 104 14 15 136 140 4 -4 -1 -36
Chicago Cubs 17 11 174 124 15 13 143 130 2 -2 31 -6
Milwaukee 16 12 130 131 15 13 142 134 1 -1 -12 -3
Houston 13 16 131 132 13 16 136 148 0 0 -5 -16
Cincinnati 12 17 124 139 14 15 139 148 -2 2 -15 -9
Pittsburgh 11 17 130 163 12 16 124 145 -1 1 6 18
WEST W L RS RA
Arizona 20 8 165 109 15 14 131 127 5 -6 34 -18
LA Dodgers 15 13 142 110 15 13 132 127 0 0 10 -17
San Francisco 13 16 93 131 13 16 122 135 0 0 -29 -4
Colorado 11 17 114 144 14 14 143 140 -3 3 -29 4
San Diego 11 18 94 133 15 14 132 126 -4 4 -38 7


So like I said above, the Yankees have been 4 wins worse than projected so far. What's interesting is that despite all the noise/blame being assigned to the young pitching staff, their offense is the real problem. They allowed right around the same number of runs as they projected to, but they scored 42 fewer, which matches up with the 4 win shortfall.

The Yankees are tied with San Diego for the dubious honor of biggest disappointments so far. The Diamondbacks are the biggest positive surprise. Another interesting thing to note is that scoring is down about 7.3% from the projections. It's probably more early statistical noise than anything.

I'm going to be on vacation next week so no posts from me most likely, although I may pipe in if something big happens. Sean and Jonathan will cover for me and hopefully bring better luck than I have been bringing.
--Posted at 7:09 am by SG / 157 Comments | - (399)

Comments

Page 1 of 2 pages:  1 2 >

hughes has a broken rib now too

Enjoy your vacation, SG.  You won’t be missing much in these parts.

10-game win streak starts tonight.  I’m calling it right now.

We’ll miss you, SG—almost as much as we miss the Yankee offense.

Derrick Turnbow got released today.  I was thinking the Yankees might want to try to pick him up.  His salary is only 3 million and with the recent pitching attrition and assuming Joba gets moved to the rotation this could pay off.  The downside of course is that he’s essentially Kyle Farnsworth for a quarter the cost.  On the other hand he still has a ton of upside if he can get some/any command back on his fastball.

SG, you can’t get out of a slump on the bench, and the Yankees aren’t going to start winning with you sunning yourself in Mustique.

The Yanks have plenty of cheap relievers.  They don’t need Derrick Turnbow.  Speaking of which, was it me or did Chris Britton look pretty good out there last night?

Happy vacationing, SG!

“was it me or did Chris Britton look pretty good out there last night”

It must have been you, IE, since we know well that Britton is evil/not a true Yankee/has no prowess/slept with Cash’s wife.

Speaking of which, was it me or did Chris Britton look pretty good out there last night?

He looked like someone in desperate need of candy.

He usually does look ok, but not dominant.  If he’s in the middle of the pen he should be a useful player.

we know well that Britton <strike>is evil/not a true Yankee/has no prowess/slept with Cash’s wife</strike> got Steve Swindal drunk on that memorable night.

he’s essentially Kyle Farnsworth for a quarter the cost

Farnsworth makes $12M a year?  I did not know that.  Anyway, Derrick Turnbow is a 30 year old journeyman who has faced 44 batters this season and allowed 26 of them to reach safely.  He’s not going to pitch like it’s 2005 again.  In fact, if there was any reason to think that he’d pitch like it was 2007 again, he wouldn’t have been released.

did Chris Britton look pretty good out there last night?

No.  He looked fat and ugly.  Oh wait, you meant his pitching?

From Nate Silver:

“The next two names on this list are the two that I personally find much more intriguing. Damon Sublett absolutely murdered the ball at Staten Island last year, hitting for an untranslated .326/.426/.531. While PECOTA has had a couple of issues in the past with the Staten Island ballpark (I hope that I never hear the name Wilmer Pino again), Sublett’s game was extremely well-rounded, as he showed off the whole trio of contact hitting, power hitting and plate discipline—albeit with a rather high strikeout rate. Sublett also doubled as a pitcher at Wichita State, so his arm strength in the infield will not be a problem. He’s one to note with a mental bookmark.”

I have never heard of this guy before. Nice to know there’s some infield talent in the system.

Britton and Ramirez are going to be a good tandem in the 6,7,8 innings.

I would hardly consider Turnbow a journeyman.  Besides, he’s only pitched 6 innings this year and if the Yankees have taught us anything its the danger of small sample sizes.  His fastball velocity is as high as ever.  While I am in no way suggesting we could see 2005 Turnbow again I do think 2007 is possible.

While I am in no way suggesting we could see 2005 Turnbow again I do think 2007 is possible.

Let him pass through waivers first; if he does that and is willing to sign a MiL deal, why not?  But the Yankees have plenty of good arms both on the club and in the minors now.  I don’t mind adding to the depth, but not for a 40 man roster spot at this point.

Seems like the difference between the Yanks’ expected record comes down to the fact that the numbers, from a small sample, are skewed by a single game, when the Yankees scored 15 runs against the Sox. Now, I’m not saying the Yanks didn’t deserve to feast on us that night, or that the team or the methodology is flawed. I’m just saying, win expectancy based on run differentials naturally has a pretty huge margin of error with such a small sample. Those 15 runs were worth, what, two wins?

Whoops… can I erase that last comment? Turns out it’s a lot stupider than I originally thought. Totally misread the #s. Can I go home now?

I think that point is worth making, though, in the sense that the offense really is even WORSE than it seems.  11% of the runs were scored in just one game (3.3% of games played).  The only reason the record is not worse right now is the great play of Mo and Joba.

Cowboy,

Sublett is currently hitting .270/.363/.416 for Tampa, which is decent but he’s also 22 (turns 23 in September) which makes those numbers somewhat less impressive.  At his age, both Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano were in the majors.  In any event, we shall see what happens.

I did a bit of investigating on stress fractures in the ribs (I talked to my athletic trainer). He said it’s, while not common, a easy injury to pick up for athletes performing repetitive motions, due to the stress put on the ribs by attached muscles, like pitching.

He also said in terms of pitching it would lead to a drop of a couple of MPH and a change in mechanics, all as a result of pain. Because pain acts as a muscle limiter in terms of muscle performance and causes mechanical changes as a way to avoid as much pain as possible.

He went on to say that rib stress fractures are often misdiagnosed (missed) for a while, and usually only picked up when rehab for the more common muscle injuries isn’t working.

It’s is possible, even probable, that this explains the lowered velocity and lack of control Hughes has shown. But, on the bright(?) side the timetable the Yankees have given of 2 months is pretty correct, as recovery is 4-6 weeks plus the run through the minors with rehab starts.

I go to my first Yankees game tomorrow, with Moose pitching.  He’ll no doubt make me nervous as heck.

Thanks DaPuj. Apparently you have better coffee today than I.

Ladies and gentlemen, Dr. <strike>House</strike> Hoadley.

That’s some impressive investigative journalism, Clay!

Its amazing what you can do with access to a professional athletic trainer and a body that is constantly injured so that you have a close personal relationship with said trainer.

Nonetheless, I’m impressed.  Now the question is why Ian Kennedy completely lacks the command he had in the minors and in his brief major league stint last season.  Perhaps he merits a rib examination as well.

i think kennedy must have sprained his arm’s ankle.

Perhaps he merits a rib examination as well.

....with a crowbar*.

*ht RAB

Ivy, Moose is always entertaining to watch (except when pitching to Manny Ramirez; the outcome is a foregone conclusion then). Think about it this way, he will keep you interested about the game.

Does that mean Hughes is injury prone? Aren’t pitchers, you know, expected to use that motion repeatedly without it hurting?

Interesting lineup for tonight’s game (per Abraham):

Cabrera CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Duncan 1B
Matsui LF
Giambi DH
Ensberg 3B
Molina C
Gonzalez 2B
Wang RHP (5-0, 3.23)

Does that mean Hughes is injury prone? Aren’t pitchers, you know, expected to use that motion repeatedly without it hurting?

Wakefield had the same thing last year.  It happens.  Pitching is not a natural thing for a human body to do…consider the torque every time a pitch is thrown!  I’m actually amazed it doesn’t happen more often.

Regarding Britton… well, he walked a guy and then hung a slider (middle of the plate, up) to Jones, but Jones sucks now so he popped it up.  Good hitter = 2-run HR.  He’s fine as one of the guys to throw against the wall in middle relief, but he didn’t look particularly good to me (last night).

Phil’s rib… this sucks, but it also makes me feel a little better about his performance this year.  It might explain at least some of the problems.  Still, it sucks to lose him for 2 months.

Good to see Rasner up.  At least the team has a capable replacement available.

Lineup: Cano’s riding pine I see.

Not that anyone sensible cares, but I looked up “offend” and it does indeed come from “ob” + “fendere”, which explains the double “f” which “defense” lacks.

Total non-sequitor: SG, is there any way to put up a Jeter walk counter in the sidebar?  Last night he got his third of the season.  His THIRD.  Dude is sucking this year, and big time.

i think kennedy must have sprained his arm’s ankle

Wouldn’t that be his wrist?

His fastball velocity is as high as ever.

Actually, it’s not.  His average fastball in 2005 and 2006 was 95.6 mph.  In his admittedly small sample this year it’s 92.9 mph.

Also, (aside from luck) pretty much the entire difference between the 2005 version and the 2006 and 2007 versions was that his walk rate doubled.  Now again, 6.1 innings is a ridiculously small sample, but 13 walks in 6.1 innings is even more ridiculous.  I don’t really see much reason to hope that he’s going to get his fastball command back, since he didn’t just lose it for the first month of this season.  He lost it two years ago.

Jeter’s not walking, but he’s also not striking out (7 in 105 PA for a guy who generally has more than 100 each year).  His problem is that he’s putting the ball in play too much.  He needs to swing and miss a little bit more (early in the count); then the walks and strikeouts will both increase, and so will the hits.

This might seem counter-intuitve, but give it some thought and it’s really not.  Mickey Mantle once said that if he had Don Mattingly’s ability to make contact, he’d have hit .400 a few times.  When Mattingly was told of Mickey’s comment, he said that if he could swing and miss like Mantle, he’d walk a lot more.

MC
I thought at first you were joking. But the more I think of it you are saying guys would be better off to take big cuts and then miss the ball entirely. This would be preferrable to what happens with the contact guys who instead manage too often to get a small part of the ball ending up with dribblers, hence the line “putting too many in play.”  A clean miss before two strikes allows you to keep the ab going. Jeter has had an extreme amount of infeld choppers and dribblers and jam jobs. He’s simply not driving the ball with authority this year for the most part and never yet in my memory has he lofted a pulled ball to direct left field. I remember though that in 2001 he didn’t homer until about the 9th or 10th of May. He was younger than of course but I still hope he can manage an adjustment and get it going. He is capable at times to drive a ball long. It’s there he just hasn’t found it. Last September those two games in Fenway where he takes Beckett to center on Sat and Schilling to left on Sunday illustrate what he is capable of doing.

Of players in the AL with at least 75 PA, Jeter is dead last with 3.09 P/PA.

Props to Rilke for the etymology… maybe today is the day our obfense wakes up.

And props to Clay for the ribology… maybe YHLH will fashion that rib into a sexy female Hughes we can use to distract Manny Ramirez when the pennant race heats up.

maybe YHLH will fashion that rib into a sexy female Hughes we can use to distract Manny Ramirez when the pennant race heats up

Manny = Elmer Fudd?

Of players in the AL with at least 75 PA, Jeter is dead last with 3.09 P/PA.

Yep.  And swinging and missing more is a lot more likely to increase that number than to decrease it.

I’m not sure you can distract Manny with a sexy female.  You might have better luck with candy or ice cream.

joel—Jeter has five hits that I think you’d have to say were pulled.  None of them were long hits.  Fox has hit charts:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/playerHitChart?categoryId=85268

The hot zone thing is pretty interesting too.  But again, these are all still stupidly small samples.

“YHLH”

Maybe you should update your address book before the next lotto - it’s “YHVH” unless I’m confused…

maybe YHLH will fashion that rib into a sexy female Hughes

That just conjured up all manner of severely traumatizing images in my brain.

Also, maybe the sexy female Hughes will become the once and future ace of our pitching staff, unlike her damaged male predecessor. Just as illustrated in the Bible, sometimes the first draft isn’t so good and you have to try again.

/ducks

on the bright side at least Hughes didn’t tear his ACL ala Gallardo

What will be interesting is, if the Yankees stick to “the plan” with Joba, he and Hughes should be appearing in the rotation at around the same time. If Hughes comes back “new’ (read: old) and Joba starts off how we hope he does, that could be a huge turning point. Especially if the Yankees manage to stick around for the next two months.

Well, swinging and missing more would certainly help him get deeper into counts…but perhaps NOT swinging a bit more would be a better start.

Especially if the Yankees manage to stick around for the next two months.

Or if not, they can get valuable training for next year.  I’m slowly coming to terms with the fact that playoffs are not likely this season, and a championship more so.

I’d say the playoffs are still likely this year (or at least not unlikely), only because I don’t think it possible for the offensive to be, well, so offensive for the entire season. Even if the pitching is sub par the Yankees can likely hit their way into the post season.

how hard were those balls off Wang hit?

Dunno, I’m “watching” on Gameday.

I’m guessing that concludes the Yankees’ scoring for tonight. Effin Giambi.

No, it’s OK. They are only allowed to score once in a big inning. They can put together several futile 1 run innings though, as long as they don’t do it more that 2-3 times.

As bad as Jeter has been at the plate his baserunning has looked good.
Sure its a small silver lining but still…

From Gameday, Wang’s velocity seems down (~90 instead of usual 93-95mph).

Melky is a savage. How the hell did he hit that ball for a double.

I have a man crush on the ex-AG.  And Melk.

YM, what is a man crush for the likes of 300-men named Bubba?  Is it different than a man crush by any of the other posters here?

It’s hard to explain unless you *are* a 300-lb man named Bubba.

Gonzales has looked good in the spot duty he’s been in.  Is this just a SSS fluke or does could he potentially be a .290/.350/.400 guy?

Well, for my current definition of 300-pound-man named Bubba, I’m one too.  I think I get it but am unsure.

Past a diving Jeter indeed.

Is this just a SSS fluke or does could he potentially be a .290/.350/.400 guy?


Probably a fluke but we might as well ride the hot streak for as long as we can.  Looks like Molino’s is over, by the way.

Mmmm, Wang!

Shelley Duncan is so much scarier-looking than the name suggests.

With the shift and the wind blowing in, the chances of Giambi hitting a ball that is not caught for an out are:

a) 5%
b) 10%
c) 0%
d) -340%

?

Wow, reverse jinx!

Giambi didn’t come close to trying to get out of the way of that pitch.

impressive

Clog those bases, clog ‘em good!

Man Duncan runs like a goon.

Posada is out for 6 weeks?! Crap.

That was…suboptimal.

Re: Posada.  Better 6 weeks than the entire season.

We may need a change in strategy to make the playoffs this season.  I say Wang pitches every other day until July when Hughes and Chamberlain re-enter the rotation.

Wang
Petitte
Wang
Mussina
Wang
Kennedy
Wang
Rasner

I can’t believe Cash and Girardi haven’t figured this out yet.

Is there a reason Hughes would wear glasses instead of contact lenses? Do pitchers tend to do that? I’m thinking of Farns, Edwar…is it just a Yankees fashion statement?

That’s my Wang!

...wow, I’ll need to dress warmly for tomorrow’s game.  And hope that they don’t call it due to showers.

I ♥ Wang!

74- Hughes says he really doesn’t like contacts.  I can’t blame him, as I don’t either.

78- Thanks. I don’t either.

Contacts take some getting used to.  I still can’t wear mine all day without problems.  Unless his glasses are Ricky Vaughn-style, I pray he gets contacts, though.

eeeeek let him be okay!

Did someone just get injured?

What happened?

but perhaps NOT swinging a bit more would be a better start.

Jeter is swinging at the same percentage of balls outside the strike zone that he did last year.  He is swinging at more pitches in the strike zone than he has in the past.  How would taking more of those strikes help?

The most striking change with Jeter so far this year is the increase in the percentage of swings at pitches out of the zone that result in contact.  Presumbly, some of those are being put in play, and probably not with much authority.  Combined with swinging at more balls in the zone, this has to result in more balls in play early in counts.

I’m not just making this stuff up, you know.

What’s the difference in the distance from the zone of balls Jeter’s swinging at this year vs last?  Or from the center of the zone for strikes?

Man, that sucks, he’s going to score now.

Prowess check: Ichiro > Molino

Wang has having some finger trouble for a while.  He got back in the game and is doing pretty well so far…

Wang > Mariners

I guess Bedard is a power pitcher.

Why does Girardi keep sending Giambi up against lefties?

One more inning for Wang?

Good question, rilkefan.  I don’t know where you’d find that data.  I’m just living off of fangraphs.  One other thing—Jeter is seeing a higher percentage of pitches in the strike zone than he has in the past few seasons.  I have to imagine this is a SSS fluke.  I doubt that there’s a new book on Jeter that says you can get him out by just pounding the zone.

Bedard >> Giambi

Ohboy

Farnsworthicide is in.  May I inquire as to why?

I guess Wang came out because of his thumb and Girardi didn’t want Joba to pitch 2 innings?

Girardi feels lucky.

0-2 hanging slider?

Now what???

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