For a fifth starter, I suppose he could be serviceable. An average starter in the majors is a number 3 starter, right?

Actually, I think an average starter is closer to a number 2, but let me see if I can find the article that Chris Jaffe wrote about it.

OK, here’s the article.  Yeah, average starter is a number 3.

OK, so how long until we can stretch Hughes out?

[4] I think Hughes is more likely to be shifted back to the rotation if Pettitte or Joba pitch poorly (rather than as a result of a void in the #5 spot), but obviously (at least to us) they should begin stretching him out now so that he is closer to being available should the need arise.

Do they tough it out with Mitre or trade for someone like Washburn, Meche or Snell to take Wang’s place?

Of course, the ideal course of action would be Hughes to the rotation. But, that doesnt seem like it’s going to happen any time soon.

Mitre’s not an actual prospect

C’mon, thanks to PEDs and advanced medical procedures, 28 is the new 21.

Mitre’s average fastball/sinker sits around 90mph

FWIW, Chad Jennings has seen most of Mitre’s starts in AAA this year, and reports he is throwing a little harder than reported.  I.e. reported 89-91 and he’s been throwing 90-93.  Possibly he’s stronger, possibly improved mechanics, possibly SSS.  Mitre is probably a league-averagish pitcher.  I think they’re just hoping he can consistently go 6-7 innings, letting up 3-4 runs.  Which is fine for this team, as the bullpen should be able to handle 2-3 innings and the offense should be able to put up 4-5 runs.

Do they tough it out with Mitre or trade for someone like Washburn, Meche or Snell to take Wang’s place?

Too soon to tell, no?  Mitre should have two starts before the deadline.  If he throws two nine-inning shutouts (and doesn’t appear lucky) no reason to find a replacement.  If he gets bombed each time out, they will be more likely to go outside the organization, or move Hughes back into the rotation; and that would be made easier if Bruney and/or Marte return to pitching well.

I’m not the only one who thinks the home plate umpire last night looked like Keenan Thompson, right. It just made it that much funnier when he was telling Roberts that he was out, because I imagined it was Keenan Thompson dressed up as an umpire telling Brian Roberts he was out. And that was real funny.

Unless Mitre bombs and one of Joba or Andy fall apart, Hughes will be in the pen for the rest of the season. I’ve seen this movie before.

If Wang is truly toast, then I can’t see the Yankees standing pat, not with Boston and Tampa in the AL East.  If there were someone on the farm outside of Mitre ready to step in, then maybe they could forgo a veteran pitcher, but there’s really no one outside of Mitre, especially since Kontos is hurt.

I’d rather trade for a 4/5 then put the ball in Igawa’s hands if needed.

Hughes in the rotation, at this point, doesn’t look like it’s going to happen, even if it should.

You’ll probably only see Hughes in the rotation this year if
a) Bruney starts to pitch like he did before he got hurt
b) Marte returns and pitches well
c) Mitre sucks

It’s plausible, but unlikely IMO.

I agree that Hughes will not be moved to the rotation anymore. It would take time for Hughes to get stretch out and if that would be the case he would be sent down for stretching. Anyway, Hughes is way too valuable in the pen.  I believe the Yankees believe this as well. My vote is to keep Hughes in the pen permanently and groom him to be the heir apparent to Mo if he ever does retire. He is that good for us in the pen.Hughes fastball is touching 97mph! Next year the yankees have other options in the minors to take Pettite’s place such as Kennedy, Belantence etc…(if Andy does not return) As far as this season, If Mitre does not pan out the Yankees will try to find a cheaper alternative. It definitely won’t be Haliday for sure.

I believe the Yankees believe this as well. My vote is to keep Hughes in the pen permanently and groom him to be the heir apparent to Mo if he ever does retire.

Here we go again.

I understand the pessimism with regards to Hughes starting anytime soon, but I am still vaguely hopeful that they are (finally) going to start stretching him out.  I wish it weren’t such a huge leap for Girardi/Cashman to go from ‘we need a fifth starter because hughes isn’t stretched out’ to ‘let’s stretch hughes out so we don’t need a fifth starter.’

Stop the madness.

Anyway, Hughes is way too valuable in the pen.  I believe the Yankees believe this as well. My vote is to keep Hughes in the pen permanently and groom him to be the heir apparent to Mo if he ever does retire. He is that good for us in the pen.Hughes fastball is touching 97mph

yankees09, since you’re new here I’ll just warn you that this isn’t going to be a very popular viewpoint.

Hughes should be given a chance to start until he shows he can’t do it.  Between him and Joba, we’re seeing that it’s a lot easier to relieve than start.  Both guys should get a chance to start for now.

Bettances seems like a guy who may benefit from a move to the bullpen.  He’s got the stuff, and he’s shown a propensity for nagging injuries.  Maybe he can be the heir to Mo, although again he probably deserves a chance to start.

With the Yankees facing Rich Hill tonight and his spectacular 63 ERA+, 5.77 CERA and 1.80 WHIP, Mitre basically needs to lob the ball over the plate for 5 innings.

[12] One more scenario: if Melancon starts dominating enough to start getting high-leverage innings and he dominates those as well.  That would have to happen rather immediately, though, for the whole trust-building thing to work.

If Mitre’s MLE FIP in 2009 is 3.70, then shouldn’t that be the baseline expectation for him over the next couple of starts at least?  I mean, that stat is either a major league equivalency or it’s not.  If it’s really not, they should come up with a different name for it.

Isn’t it going to be way easier/cheaper to trade for a RP and make Hughes back into a SP?

If Mitre’s MLE FIP in 2009 is 3.70, then shouldn’t that be the baseline expectation for him over the next couple of starts at least?  I mean, that stat is either a major league equivalency or it’s not.  If it’s really not, they should come up with a different name for it.

Is C.C. Sabathia’s 3.66 ERA the baseline expectation for him over the next couple of starts?  How about Joba’s 4.05 ERA?  Is any pitcher’s current ERA the baseline expectation for them over the next couple of starts?

You can’t just focus on what’s happening now when trying to assess how good a pitcher is.

SG- Lol! I don’t mean to upset some people. I would love to see Phil Hughes get a chance to start and succeed for next year. I will be pulling for the guy.  All i’m saying is that it is tempting. I love Hughes and maybe he can be a Roy Holiday for years to come. What upsets me is that people will automatically send Joba to the pen at the expense of Phil Hughes when Hughes has not shown the success as Joba as a starter. Why can’t we groom both guys as starters?? I’m all for that. However, Hughes is a young guy and he failed to deliver as a starter last year. He should be given a 2nd chance..but for next season. This season Hughes is an impact player being in the pen for the Yankees.

Isn’t it going to be way easier/cheaper to trade for a RP and make Hughes back into a SP?

What reliever would you trade for that’s likely to be better than some combination of a healthy Marte(or Melancon if he adjusts)?  How much would you be willing to give up for that reliever?

The problem is Hughes has probably been too good.  You’re not going to be able to trade for someone who’ll be as effective as Hughes has been to this point.  Then again, we shouldn’t really expect Hughes to continue to be as good as he’s been either.

With the Yankees facing Rich Hill tonight and his spectacular 63 ERA+, 5.77 CERA and 1.80 WHIP, Mitre basically needs to lob the ball over the plate for 5 innings.

You’ve all but made certain that Cy Hill shows up tonight. Unless of course this is a reverse jinx in which case I tip my cap to you, sir.

Why can’t we groom both guys as starters??

I don’t think there is a good reason not to…beginning now.

RE: Hughes RP -> SP

I believe Girardi mentioned that it would take 4 weeks to stretch him out to 100 pitches.  Am I alone in thinking that’s a bit crazy considering he’s 23 and not coming off an injury?

Isn’t the most valuable thing about Mo not just that he’s a shutdown type guy, but that he’s had a peak of basically 14 years? There really aren’t any comparables, at all. You could say Hoffman, but he’s really been a step down from Mo basically every season, though he does have the longevity.  The point of this ramble was that yyou just can’t even remotely expect any pitcher to recreate what Mo gives the team.  If you could tell me Hughes could do that, it might be worth keeping him as a reliever, but I just don’t think that’s realistic.  People see Mo, and want everyone to be the next Him, but it’s a nearly impossible standard.  But he’s the comparison when people think about the value of a closer.

People see Mo, and want everyone to be the next Him, but it’s a nearly impossible standard.

Yeah, I almost think the Yankees have to bring in a free agent to replace Mo for a couple of years, because it’s going to be an impossible position to fill adequately.  If they go with someone like Melancon and he struggles initially, he’s going to constantly be compared to the greatest closer ever.

We’re all going to have to come to grips with the fact that Mo won’t be here much longer.  EVERYONE that fills the 9th inning role from the day he retires onward will be compared to him, free agent acquisition or otherwise.
Don’t mean to be a Debbie Downer, but it is going to suck hard when we reach that day.

I believe Girardi mentioned that it would take 4 weeks to stretch him out to 100 pitches.  Am I alone in thinking that’s a bit crazy considering he’s 23 and not coming off an injury?

Or in other words, he should have been stretched out by now since CMW went down to injury about 4 weeks ago. It’s a little ridiculous.

I know Hughes has been amazing since joining the pen, but it is some blind optimism to think that Mitre is going to be consistent enough to not have Hughes ready as the back u plan. Or that Joba and Pettitte are such locks for quality starts that the Yankees can just absorb (if any) bad performances by Mitre.

I hope Mitre pitches well enough to stick in the rotation, by the way.

I believe Girardi mentioned that it would take 4 weeks to stretch him out to 100 pitches.  Am I alone in thinking that’s a bit crazy considering he’s 23 and not coming off an injury?

Last year, it took practically a 4-start period for Joba to go from 62 pitches to 100 pitches last year (he pitched 3, 5, 5 and 6 innings in that span): June 3 to June 19.

It’s about a week less than Girardi estimates.

So who gets sent down to make room for Mitre?

It would take time for Hughes to get stretch out and if that would be the case he would be sent down for stretching.

They stretched Chamberlain out without sending him down last year.  There’s no reason they couldn’t do the same with Hughes if they wanted to.  A couple of multi-inning relief outings followed by a couple of strictly pitch-count-limited starts and you’re there.  There’s certainly no reason to think it would be unduly stressful for him to go 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105 over the next three and a half weeks or so.  You’d just have to use the AAA shuttle to keep a fresh extra arm or two in the pen backing him up during those first few short starts.

But in fact, that’s probably quite a bit more conservative than you need to be.  A one inning reliever could easily throw 35-40 pitches if he has a bad outing on a day when the rest of the pen is spent, and nobody would bat an eye (unless they used him again the next day).  I imagine that Hughes could safely go 40, 55, 70, 85, 100 over the course of the next three weeks or less.

But the thing is, they don’t want to do any of this.  They’re in love with the way they’re using him now.  Hughes isn’t going to get stretched out, unless you consider the occasional two-inning appearance stretching out.  He’s pitching teh ate for the rest of the year, so we’ll just have to deal with it.

Yeah, he went 40 pitches, July 17. 13 pitches July 19. Next appearance hit 40- 50 pitches (3) innings, then 55 - 65 following that, he should be good to go at 80-90 range and that should bring him on track.  And Mitre can stay up to be the long man, to not shuttle too many pitchers up and down.

The question is more of whether they want to and not whether it can be done. It was done with Joba and a host of other pitches in the major league level, so it can be done. But since the starting pitching has been strong, and Hughes has been crazy good, it’s easier to just envision that teh ate is how Hughes should be used.

I mean, yeah sure, if the starters are going to keep rolling like this, then fine. I hope the starters can keep it up.

I think Hughes is more likely to be shifted back to the rotation if Pettitte or Joba pitch poorly

Perverse incentives: I was sort of hoping for Andy to get rocked to force Girardi’s hand on Hughes.

Do they tough it out with Mitre or trade for someone like Washburn, Meche or Snell to take Wang’s place?

Meche is on the shelf.  Snell has been awful for a season and a half and I imagine his value further declined when he decided to be a petulant prick.

Washburn strikes me as a nice fit.  But does Seattle consider themselves out of the hunt?  Even if they do, could they not use their postseason-shouting-distance as leverage in trade negotiations? 

You’ll probably only see Hughes in the rotation this year if
a) Bruney starts to pitch like he did before he got hurt
b) Marte returns and pitches well
c) Mitre sucks

These are “ands”, not “ors”, right?

This has been covered in the past for sure (apologies).  But assuming Hughes stays in his current role through the end of the season, does that preclude him from opening ‘10 in the rotation?  Because that’s the main concern—that he be a starter going forward, not that he has to start in now, right?

Hughes is currently showing great effectiveness while pitching. He is also a starter. If the Yankees had a stable, effective starting rotation, and not a gaping maw of a fifth start, then sure keep Hughes in the rotation. As long as it doesn’t interrupt his development, especially in terms of innings.

However, currently the Yankees have no fifth starter and Hughes needs innings. To me the solution is pretty obvious. The usage of Hughes needs to change. I prefer starting, but I wouldn’t be too upset with using Hughes for more than one inning at a time.

I prefer starting, but I wouldn’t be too upset with using Hughes for more than one inning at a time.

Yeah, that July 17 2 innings pitch really built up my expectations. But that was coming off the all star break, so it might be nothing.  Then again, it might be something. 

There’s certainly no reason to think it would be unduly stressful for him to go 30, 45, 60, 75, 90, 105 over the next three and a half weeks or so.

There are two plausible options for stretching out Hughes:
1.  Piggy-back his starts with Joba.  He has an innings limit of ~150-160 and has thrown 95.2 innings this year already.  Let him start or vice-versa and let him “get his work in” but only pitch 3-4 innings per game.  This goes on for a bit.  Yanks get an additional 4-5 starts out of Joba, keep him fresh, and stretch out Hughes in the process.
2.  Piggy-back Mitre as long-man.  I say let him start at least 3 games first.  If he can’t hack it over 5-6 innings, stretch Hughes out with him as the 2-3 inning long-man.

I doubt either of these happen, but if the Yanks wanted Hughes in the rotation it’s really not that difficult to accomplish.  I agree that for this season there is no better option out of the bullpen than Hughes.  I would rather see him starting and working on his mechanics, stamina (only 56IP), pitch selection and control, but alas, the Yanks are winning. 

PS:  When’s the last time Melancon pitched?  April 25?  I would like to hope he’s not going to be in the bullpen for much longer as his development is clearly being aided by sitting on the bench.

However, currently the Yankees have no fifth starter and Hughes needs innings.

While a playoff berth is hardly assured, my guess is Girardi, Cash et. al. are thinking: “Well, no 5th starter needed come October.  We’d just end up jerking him back into the bullpen for the postseason.  Might as well just keep him there.”

The other wildcard here is CMW.  Let’s see how major this setback is.  Perhaps irrationally, I believe he can salvage his season.  Or at least be better than Sergio Mitre for 5 weeks or something.

When’s the last time Melancon pitched?  April 25?  I would like to hope he’s not going to be in the bullpen for much longer as his development is clearly being aided by sitting on the bench.

Yeah.  But there hasn’t been a single low leverage inning since Anaheim 10 days ago.  I’m very curious to see 1 or 2 of Melancon/Robertson/Bruney can prove himself trustworthy.  Hopefully 10-3 in the 7th tonight, and we can start seeing those guys again.

There are two plausible options for stretching out Hughes:
1.  Piggy-back his starts with Joba.  He has an innings limit of ~150-160 and has thrown 95.2 innings this year already.  Let him start or vice-versa and let him “get his work in” but only pitch 3-4 innings per game.  This goes on for a bit.  Yanks get an additional 4-5 starts out of Joba, keep him fresh, and stretch out Hughes in the process.
2.  Piggy-back Mitre as long-man.  I say let him start at least 3 games first.  If he can’t hack it over 5-6 innings, stretch Hughes out with him as the 2-3 inning long-man.

I think it’s more simple than that, piggy back Mitre’s start tonight with 2 plus innings, and let Hughes start 3-5 innings after that. If Hughes is being converted, I assume he has to be treated as the starter and let him think of himself as that, versus an extended long relief role. Mitre can stick around, if needed to piggy back Hughes for a start or two, and the stretching out would be done.

If Mitre does well in his start, then Hughes can piggy back another long relief appearance as needed (Joba/AJ/looks like chance of rain delays/postponement regardless), piggy back Mitre again. And by then, (a) if Mitre puts together 2 strong performance, enjoy the ride cause he’s going to get a bunch more start, and Hughes got some 2 innings pitch count to help him and the team; or (b) Mitre slips, Hughes gets moved to the rotation and Yankee should be thankful for at least one good start out of Mitre.

Forget it, it’s not rocket science, if Girardi or Cashman wanted to do it, they can do it any number of ways. As many others have said, it’s how in love the Yankees are of Hughes in teh ate, and whether they want to start him or not.

But with any worries of Joba butting up to his pitch limit, I rather they just stick with him to do whatever a starter does. Part of his development is going through the entire game and staying sharp through it. He has about 10 more starts if the limit is in the 150 range.  He should just keep at it, maybe skip a start to keep him fresh, if Joba hasn’t felt it already, he’s going to come up with the fatigue from a long season in August or so.

I watched the beginning of the game and then the end on replay.  It worked out but why was the Yankee IF playing back with men on 2nd and 3rd (per Kay)in the 8th inning of a tie game?  That made no sense to me.  Willing to give up one but afraid of giving up two in the 8th inning??  He did the same thing on Saturday in the 6th inning of a tie game in the same situation.

Seems to me they are set on keeping Hughes in the pen the rest of the season (how couldn’t they be, when you have a prospect like Mitre you just have to get him in the rotation), so my question is how many innings would Hughes end with if he stays in his current role? How many innings could he possibly log in a winter league to stretch him out further?

[43] Same as the other day, runners on 2nd and 3rd and they didn’t want to surrender two runs on something hit hard.

You guys aren’t being realistic. I agree that Hughes is a starter, should be a starter, will be a starter, but there is no chance that Girardi is going to give up the most dominant arm in his (and maybe anyone else’s) pen right now. (Other than Mo of course.) 

They’ll try Mitre, they’ll give Aceves another shot, they’ll sign some schmo and hope to get some Small/Ponson magic,  but heading into the stretch of what figures to be a tight pennant race, they will not move Phil out of the pen.

The logic is understandable.

Hughes is young, he can start next season.
Hughes has been way better in the pen than as a starter.
Et ceretis parabus, Hughes to Mo is a competitive advantage in the post-season.

Is it myopic? Yes.
Are you potentially shooting yourself in the foot if you can’t find a starter who will give you what Hughes would give you in the 5th slot? Yes.
Is Hughes going back to the rotation this season barring a spectacular collapse by both Mitre and Joba or Andy? Hell. No.

As always, I want Phil to start, but I’m not even going to waste my time entertaining the thought that it will happen this year.

These are “ands”, not “ors”, right?

Yes, they are ands.

Also, this whole conversation would be mute if Cashman would go out and get that Roy Holliday guy! What is he waiting for?

there is no chance that Girardi is going to give up the most dominant arm in his (and maybe anyone else’s) pen right now.

I agree that Girardi will not give up Hughes as a bullpen part. But Cashman needs to step in. Girardi’s job each year is to win. Cashman’s job is to maintain a winning team. Hughes as a starter might be a bit of a hit this year, but he’ll likely be a significant plus as a starter in the future. Even if Hughes isn’t moved into the rotatein some “Hughes rules” need to be passed down.

There is a refusal amongst some to recognize an obvious difference in performance between Hughes/Joba as SP’s and Hughes/Joba as RP’s.  Both are clearly more effective at RP than SP.  That is not to say that RP is more valuable because it’s not.  But perhaps SP takes a lot longer to learn and, if so, perhaps it is not optimal to have a knee-jerk panic reaction to Hughes’ superior bullpen performance whereby we advocate moving him to SP immediately.  Why not even consider rolling with what’s working?

Also, I should mention that I get a bigger boner knowing that we have hughes in the bullpen, than I did when we had Joba in the bullpen. Don’t know why, probably irrational, but dammit he’s a badass.

Perverse incentives: I was sort of hoping for Andy to get rocked to force Girardi’s hand on Hughes.

I suggest you stop rooting against anyone wearing a Yankee uniform.  Nothing is going to force Girardi’s hand on Hughes, and it’s not like it’s a decision that he’d be making on his own anyway.  Hughes is in the bullpen for the rest of this year.  Just get used to it, and hope for enough multi-inning appearances to get him up to a decent total number of innings.  And in the meantime, root for every starting pitcher they use instead of Hughes to pitch miles over his head.

He has about 10 more starts if the limit is in the 150 range.

I think the Yankees have a bigger number in mind for Chamberlain.  He stands to make 14 more starts.  Six innings per start would put him at 180 IP for the year.  It doesn’t really matter if I think that’s 20 too many, or if Tom Verducci thinks it’s 50 too many.  He’s going to pitch the number of innings that Cashman, Eiland, Girardi, et al have decided on.

45: you’re willing to concede one run in a tie game in the 8th inning for fear of allowing two.  I don’t know what Fangraphs would say but as someone who has spent a lot of years playing games like poker, bridge and Scrabble it strikes me as tactically foolish.

Why not even consider rolling with what’s working?

I don’t think anyone is denying that both Joba and Hughes are incredibly effective as RPs. If there were no repercussions to Hughes’ ability to start in the future, I’d be all for leaving him in the BP. And with his inning limits it seems likely, if not certain that Joba will return to the BP for at least a limited time.

Want to know who has been pretty effective in the BP? Mitre. Just sayin.

You guys aren’t being realistic…

Of course, half of us guys have already said what you said.

Even if Hughes isn’t moved into the rotatein some “Hughes rules” need to be passed down.

I’m pretty sure there have been “Hughes rules” all along, but unlike his predecessor, Girardi hasn’t leaked them to the press.

There is a refusal amongst some to recognize an obvious difference in performance between Hughes/Joba as SP’s and Hughes/Joba as RP’s.  Both are clearly more effective at RP than SP.

I don’t think anybody is failing to recognize the obvious difference in performance.  But the fact is that everybody who has ever pitched is likely to be more effective as a relief pitcher than as a starting pitcher.  Starting is a much more difficult job, and not just in terms of the learning curve.

It’s only a matter of time before some team gets really smart and goes with a pitching staff of 12 dominant relievers and a mop-up guy.

Both are clearly more effective at RP than SP.

I’m not sure that’s true for Joba, at least pre-injury.  He was really quite effective as a starter last season before the shoulder issue, and now we don’t have any data that says he would necessarily be 2007-effective as a relief pitcher.  This is part of what bugs me when the MSM talk about Joba-the-reliever versus Joba-the-starter.  They’re looking at 2007 and the begining of 2008 and assume he could replicate that.  I’m not sure that’s a slam-dunk assumption.

One thing about Hughes in the bullpen vs. starting, is it just me or is he pretty much just living off his fastball as a reliever?  Seems like all of his K’s and most of his strikes come on the FB, and most of his hits have come when he throws something off-speed.  Might just be my imagination, but it could be significant if he were to move to starting right now.

I have been very critical of the front office in the past but I must give them credit for making some good non-baseball organizational decisions recently.  I think Hope Week is a great idea and I hope they make it a tradition.  Also, the Notre Dame/Army tradition is a GREAT call- I will be there every year if I can.  They should also do 1 Ranger game/year (Rangers/Devils?).  One important question: will Stan’s be open for the ND/Army game?  I hope so…

you’re willing to concede one run in a tie game in the 8th inning for fear of allowing two

When you’re playing at home, yes.  On the road, I’m sure the infield would have been in.

knee-jerk panic reaction to Hughes’ superior bullpen performance

I wouldn’t classify my, and it seems the regulars here, reaction as knee jerked. Most probably didn’t want him to go into the pen in the first place.

This is part of what bugs me when the MSM talk about Joba-the-reliever versus Joba-the-starter.  They’re looking at 2007 and the begining of 2008 and assume he could replicate that.  I’m not sure that’s a slam-dunk assumption.

Absolutely.  In fact, I’d go so far as to say that it’s a slam-dunk that he could NOT replicate it right now.  His fastball might still play up a couple of mph in a relief role, but he’s not suddenly going to become a strike-throwing machine just because you move him to the pen.

Perhaps young pitchers like Hughes/Joba think of themselves as finesse pitchers when they are SP and power pitchers when they are RP.  If so, maybee that means more junk and less fastballs in order- in their mind- to preserve their arm for later innings.  I wasn’t a pitcher but I think a breaking ball exerts more strain on your arm than even a 95 MPH fastball.

so my question is how many innings would Hughes end with if he stays in his current role?

Well, it’s not like he isn’t getting any work in.  His reliever usage projects to 68 appearances and 97 innings over a full season.  If you start from June 14th (to exclude his 3.2 inning appearance on the 10th), it projects to 68 appearances and 87 innings.  If they keep using him the way they’ve used him since June 14th, he’ll throw another 50 innings, for a season total of 106 (125 counting his AAA starts).  With a few post-season innings added in, he’d be in better shape to throw 160-180 innings in 2010 than Chamberlain was heading into this season, even without winter ball.  I think the fears that this is going to somehow hinder his development as a starter are way overblown.

OK, I’ve given up my pipe dream.  The question then is: are we in the market for a starter and if so how aggressively?  Do Mitre’s 2 starts in effect answer that question?  What does, say, Robertson and Romine get you?

Does the fact that there are 7 off days in Aug-Sept (which seems like a lot…is it?) mean that #5 could be skipped often enough so as to incur minimal damage?

Is it safe to say that, if (a big if) Pettitte doesn’t wear down and continues to be a 4.50/4.60 pitcher and Joba continues to be inconsistent, that we have a Joba/Hughes/Mo post-season pen?

So the Rays have a +79 run differential.  Pretty good.  But they had a +38 run differential in just 12 interleague games, which accounts for almost 50% of their positive value.  They’re good, and I’m worried, but not quite as worried as the pythag says I should be.

Also, outside of Howell, their bullpen isn’t very good.  That makes a difference in beating your pythag.

are we in the market for a starter and if so how aggressively?

That’s the sad thing, the Yankees had Hughes as a viable 5th starter but no longer have that as an option now that they really need him. And are refusing to turn him back into a starter, which they need. Because of this, the Yankees are looking to trade for a fifth starter.

Normally I’m a big proponent of skipping the fifth starter whenever possible, but on this team, I think the fact that two of the top four stand to be significantly better with extra rest might sway me in the other direction.

Both are clearly more effective at RP than SP.

Yes that is true, You can say the same with Santana, Holiday, Burnett etc… But as of today i can surely say that Joba is more effective being a starter than Hughes.  That is not even close.  As for Joba.. I think he has been throwing alot of 2 seamers (low 90’s) fastball too much. What he needs to do is start throwing his 4 seamer (+95mph) more at least 60% of the time in agame like other power pitchers. Right now it seems he hits 95+ at least 30% in a game. He is a power pitcher and he should trust his stuff. I wish Joba would say F- This and start challenging batters more with his best fastball. That would only make his secondary and tertiary pitches more effective.

T/F: breakingballs and change-ups tax a pitchers arm more than fastballs?

Of course, half of us guys have already said what you said.

I was talking to the other half.

Halladay. please. Not Holiday.

[67] I disagree that Joba is “surely” more effective that Hughes.

And I don’t think Joba has been using a 2 seamer all that much. gameday’s pitch f/x certainly don’t point to it. He’s just really inconsistent with his fastball.

From what I understand Joba has some difficulty repeating his delivery, which leads to the velocity/control issues.

That’s the sad thing, the Yankees had Hughes as a viable 5th starter but no longer have that as an option now that they really need him. And are refusing to turn him back into a starter, which they need. Because of this, the Yankees are looking to trade for a fifth starter.

First of all, there’s no indication that they’re looking to trade for a fifth starter.  But so what if they are?  If they hadn’t moved Hughes to the bullpen they’d be looking to trade for a dominant reliever, because they almost certainly would have a lost quite a few of the games that Hughes pitched in relief with Bruney or Albaladejo or Robertson taking those innings, or Aceves and Coke getting overworked.  I’d rather be tied for first place wondering if I need to trade for a fifth starter than three or four games back and trying to sort out my bullpen.

I was talking to the other half.

So were we.  Just wanted you to know that you’re not flying solo here.

Halladay. please. Not Holiday.

Indeed.

T/F: breakingballs and change-ups tax a pitchers arm more than fastballs?

True and False.  Curves and sliders are more taxing, especially when fatigue sets in and mechanics break down.  The change-up should be the least taxing pitch of all.

First of all, there’s no indication that they’re looking to trade for a fifth starter.

You’re right that was in response to someone else. The Yankees are certainly in a good position right now, but I’d still prefer to have Hughes in the rotation.

I think it’s worth mentioning again that the Yankees starting rotation (outside of CMW) has been rather healthy this year.  Count me in the group who thought one of AJ/Andy/Joba would have missed a few starts by this point in the season. 

I’m disappointed a bit that Hughes isn’t being stretched out, but I think he might be part of Cashman’s rain day fund.  I suspect we’ll be seeing him in the rotation as Joba nears his innings limits and if he needs to be stretched out because of an injury, he will be.  If these phantom starting opportunities never occur, I hope you’ve free this November because there’s going to be one helluva parade.

I’m disappointed a bit that Hughes isn’t being stretched out, but I think he might be part of Cashman’s rain day fund.  I suspect we’ll be seeing him in the rotation as Joba nears his innings limits and if he needs to be stretched out because of an injury, he will be.  If these phantom starting opportunities never occur, I hope you’ve free this November because there’s going to be one helluva parade.

The rain day/ opportunity did occur, and they went with Aceves, now Mitre. It’s been pure joy watching Hughes pitch. But if he was sent down to the minors, it pretty much would have been a lock that Hughes would have gotten the Aceves + Mitre starts.

Regardless, I hope Mitre duplicates his recent AAA success and we do that parade thing you mentioned.

Oh goody, the Cody Ransom experience at 3B tonight.

Oh goody, the Cody Ransom experience at 3B tonight.

It sounds like it could be something fun when you phrase it like that.

Combined with the Mitre experience we could have a hit on our hands. Or many. And some errors.

When Abraham says “Looks like Brent Tomko is out” does he mean that Tomko is DFA to make room for Mitre, or does he mean that Brett is injured?  Not that it matters much one way or the other, but I’m a bit confused as to why Nady still hasn’t been put on the 60-day DL.

Why Ransom- doesn’t Hinske play 3B?  Who in the organization is in love with this Ransom bum?

doesn’t Hinske play 3B?

In an emergency or late-inning blowout situation.

When Abraham says “Looks like Brent Tomko is out” does he mean that Tomko is DFA to make room for Mitre, or does he mean that Brett is injured?  Not that it matters much one way or the other, but I’m a bit confused as to why Nady still hasn’t been put on the 60-day DL.

The 25 and 40 man roster moves and non-moves of the Yankees are often quite baffling.

And I don’t think Joba has been using a 2 seamer all that much. gameday’s pitch f/x certainly don’t point to it. He’s just really inconsistent with his fastball.

Just a word of caution: MLB’s pitch tracker frequently gets the pitch type wrong.  The type of pitch is determined by the system set up in each stadium based on speed, break, etc.  It isn’t until the game tape is reviewed later that more accurate readouts are formed, focusing on arm angle, grip, etc.

Just a word of caution: MLB’s pitch tracker frequently gets the pitch type wrong.

I know, I usually look at the pitch f/x and break data that gameday provides. Again I’m using memory so the two faulty systems together are likely quite unreliable.

doesn’t Hinske play 3B?

Not any more, except for the odd inning here and there in a blow out.  This is not a Girardi thing.  The Blue jays moved Hinske off of 3B in 2005, and he’s played 124 innings at 3B since.

In this economy, you can’t afford to let a good opportunity to generate revenue go to waste.  By putting Mitre and Ransom out on the field at the same time, Cashman and Co. are hoping that beer sales will increase as the crowd will be so nervous in their anticipation of the impending collapse that they will be forced to drink heavily.  Plus you have to factor in that they increase the probability that the game will go to extra innings and thus more food will be sold.  Textbook.

Can Teixeira play 3rd?  Tex to 3rd, Swisher to 1st, Hinkse to right?

I wonder when the Mets will go and sign Tomko.

[88] The business side of things!

I don’t see why Hughes would have to get sent down to get stretched out.  Innings are innings, and Hughes is talented enough where we should want those innings in the big leagues. 

If you have to pull Pettitte after 4 innings so Hughes can get his 4 in, the world won’t end.

First of all, there’s no indication that they’re looking to trade for a fifth starter.  But so what if they are?  If they hadn’t moved Hughes to the bullpen they’d be looking to trade for a dominant reliever, because they almost certainly would have a lost quite a few of the games that Hughes pitched in relief with Bruney or Albaladejo or Robertson taking those innings, or Aceves and Coke getting overworked.  I’d rather be tied for first place wondering if I need to trade for a fifth starter than three or four games back and trying to sort out my bullpen.

Well said, and my thoughts exactly. It is so easy to assume the state of things would be the same had they not used Hughes over the past month or so in the pen. The confidence of winning sreaks that comes with reliable competent relief cannot be overstated. In fact the team could be easily six to seven out and desparation would be the mood today.

[81] & [85] I haven’t read anything specifically about Nady actually going “under the knife.” I know he was expected to get TJS.  This situation is quite baffling and I’m actually surprised at this point that it hasn’t come up in the MSM.  He’s eating a roster spot right at a time when space is becoming precious.

[90]These high level game theory tacticts are what I bring to the table.

45: you’re willing to concede one run in a tie game in the 8th inning for fear of allowing two.  I don’t know what Fangraphs would say but as someone who has spent a lot of years playing games like poker, bridge and Scrabble it strikes me as tactically foolish.

In NYS, with the top of the order due up in the bottom of the 8th, and facing the Orioles BP, I can see why they played the infield back rather than chancing it and potentially surrending two runs. The bigger managerial misstep was leaving Pettitte in to start the 8th in a 1-1 game.

On not playing Hinske at 3B, would he really be worse defensively than Ransom? I would assume a man with no arms and no legs could be better than Ransom defensively (and offensively).

“Is C.C. Sabathia’s 3.66 ERA the baseline expectation for him over the next couple of starts?  How about Joba’s 4.05 ERA?  Is any pitcher’s current ERA the baseline expectation for them over the next couple of starts?

You can’t just focus on what’s happening now when trying to assess how good a pitcher is. “

SG:  I don’t think it’s a radical concept to expect a pitcher to continue pitching as he has been pitching over his last run of +/- 10 starts.  Similarly, if a pitcher—regardless of his career numbers—pitches 10 straight scoreless innings, it’s natural to expect him to pitch an 11th consecutive scoreless inning. 

Note that I’m not saying Mitre is as “good” as his current MLE FIP of 3.70 suggests.  Over time, I would certainly expect him to regress toward his career norms.  And that regression COULD start any time.  But there’s no particular reason to think it will start tonight.  He’s clearly been pitching well in AAA; if memory serves, he hasn’t given up more than 3 runs in any start, and has plenty of zero- and one-run outings this year.  Obviously, he’ll face much tougher hitters in the MLB, and he may be battling nerves in his return to the majors.  All that said, I would think that how he’s been pitching this year is more relevant in predicting his performance TONIGHT than his MLB stats from 2003.

Similarly, if a pitcher—regardless of his career numbers—pitches 10 straight scoreless innings, it’s natural to expect him to pitch an 11th consecutive scoreless inning.

Maybe natural, but not realistic.

I’m hoping that Mitre is passable, but I’m not overly optimistic about it, although reports of slightly increased velocity with a sinker is positive.

Checking the gamelogs at baseball reference, it looks to me like Mitre was very good in 2007 for his first 100 IP or so, then he got (metaphorically) hit by a truck, presumably the reason he didn’t pitch the next year.  I’m optimistic.

Great thread, everyone.  Thanks for some excellent reading.

“Maybe natural, but not realistic.”

It’s not sensible to simply look at the career #s and say, “End of story”.  E.g. looking at Wang’s career #s after his first ten innings this year to predict his performance over the next ten.

Mitre is only certain to pitch for the Yankees tonight and perhaps a few more times.  Therefore, the question we need to ask is, how well is he pitching right now?  Perhaps stats from circa 5 years ago are relevant in answering that question, but common sense suggests that his performance in recent starts is a great deal more relevant.