You’re right, if you are gonna overpay it might as well be for Rivera.  He deserves it.  Rivera’s projected 2010 stats (which I believe are a bit on the negative side barring injury) will still make him a top tier closer.  Look at what Wagner makes as a top 5 closer who is far from Mo.

Wow, very optimistic IMO.  Personally I’d still feel the contract was worth it if ‘10 was a disaster.

I’d love to see the standing simulations done with the proposed yankees and red sox trades for Santana.  How far ahead would the Sox be with him?  Would the Yankees pull ahead with Johan?

You would have to think that Santana would add a minimun 5 game swing to either the Yankees or Red Sox

Why would I have to think that Santana would add five wins to any team?  And why wouldn’t I also want to consider what is subtracted by any trade?  Let’s say that you could trade Hughes for Santana straight up.  Let’s also say that Hughes projects for 160 innings at a little bit better than league average, and Santana for 220 innings of 3.00 ERA.  That would mean that you had essentially improved by 60 shutout innings.  Which is what, four wins above replacement maybe?  Throw in the fact that you’re certainly going to be giving up more than just Hughes, and the additional fact that you might be able to do better than replacement level for those 60 innings, and it becomes really hard to see more than a one or two win upgrade.

I think a more interesting thing to project is what would happen if you move one of the teams from the AL to the NL.  I’ve been reading people saying that hte Blue Jays would win the NL, but would that be the case?  I think losing Frank Thomas would really hurt their offense, but their pitching is quite good, and it’s not like most of the offenses in the NL are anything to write home about.  What would happen if you swapped the Mets and the Yankees?

You would have to think that Santana would add a minimun 5 game swing to either the Yankees or Red Sox

Not really.  It’s a domino thing.  You replace Hughes with Santana, which is probably a 3 win upgrade.  But then you move Melky to the Twins, which means Damon in CF, and Matsui in LF.  That’s a defensive hit.  Now if Giambi is healthy enough to be a full-time DH, it may end up being a net gain, but it’s an iffy proposition.  I’d guess the difference between Melky CF, Damon LF and Damon CF, Matsui LF is on the order of a 15 run downgrade.

Same thing with Boston.  If they lose Ellsbury they lose his contributions offensively and defensively. 

Anyway, I’ll run three more sets of standings per plank‘s request, one with Santana to the Yanks for Hughes/Melky, one with Santana to Scranton with Clams for Lester+, and one with Santana to Scranton with Clams for Ellsbury+.

SG estimates (per last thread) that Santana would save the Sox 20-25 runs in their rotation, which makes one guess there’d be a few more saved for the Yankees.  Whatever gains he’d make for the Yanks, on the other hand, would likely be mitigated—if only slightly—by the defensive downgrade after losing Melky.  Without doing the math, I imagine this corroborates MC’s estimate of a 1-2 win swing.

On the other hand, Santana becomes more valuable in the post-season, as he’d presumably be taking over a higher percentage of his team’s innings than he does during the regular season.

Oops, didn’t see SG is here to use, you know, actual numbers.

I’ve been reading people saying that hte Blue Jays would win the NL, but would that be the case?

I can try that out too and see what happens.  I bet they’d win the NL Central handily.

I bet they’d win the NL Central handily.

Of course, my son’s travel team would win the NL Central handily.

The only concern I have with Mo is that his WWWMWs are getting more pronounced in the last few years.  However, as always, he straightens out and goes 3 months of lights out closing.

I don’t even consider it overpaying when it comes to him.  Mo should get a statue out in front of the new ballpark along with the contract he got.

MC in VA: I went and looked at the ‘85 gamelogs - my memory is based on reading about the 6-man rotation in a paper (of course I was 12, so who knows what it actually said) - but Martin’s rotation is being tweaked constantly after the first third of the season so its hard to see any plain-as-day pattern.

Anyway, pardon the thread interruption.

I view getting Santana as 5 more wins than without him for 2 reasons #1 he going to be an improvement over what ever the Yankees lose (any offensive hit not be that much of a factor since they will still have a top tier lineup) and #2 he’s going to eat innings, saving the bull pen, which as we all know is key especially down the stretch. 

Same applies if he goes to Boston.

so, in other words, you are using the same reasoning as SG, but guessing on the 5 wins.

so, in other words, you are using the same reasoning as SG, but guessing on the 5 wins.

pardon my inability to stop laughing right now…..

Anybody got a good book recommendation?  I’m flying cross-country tomorrow, but the only place I can get a book from right now is the campus library… I found a few baseball economics books, but any other recommendations would be appreciated.

Hey, be nice, fellas!

Joey L., here in the RLYW little people community, it is standard to give shit to posters who don’t back up their arguments with facts.  It’s the “tough love” approach; this way we make each other smarter and stronger.  Don’t take it, you know, personal.

Mariano’s projection is probably a little off because he had such a lousy April. After that his ERA was about 2.20, and if that had been his ERA for the year he would project a lot better, don’t you think? Of course, everyone projects better if you don’t count their worst month of the year, but it was a pretty flukey month and the worst of his career.

Hey, be nice, fellas!

sorry, i take the good-natured sarcasm for granted around here, and i didn’t take the time to notice that Joey is a new/less frequest poster.  my bad.

To be fair, “#2 he’s going to eat innings, saving the bull pen” is something that would I think be quite difficult to calculate.  If SG is using a performance model that says reliever r will put up a FIPS of f(innings) instead of just predicting [f, total_innings_available], then I’ll be very surprised, and understanding the results from the mix of relievers brought in to replace Santana’s missing innings sounds hard too.

Yikes: Joba starting season as setup man after going through spring training as a starter.

this way we make each other smarter and stronger.

That what doesn’t kill us makes us weep in front of our computer screens and then get stronger.

Or something like that.

Thanks, rilkefan!

We need a new thread to discuss the Joba news (by discuss, I mean bitch, of course).

To be fair, “#2 he’s going to eat innings, saving the bull pen” is something that would I think be quite difficult to calculate.

It’s one thing to argue that the addition of Santana would have some synergistic effects on team performance; it’s quite another to argue that these synergies would be worth three or more wins above and beyond the value of Santana’s own performance.

Again, I’ll grant that Santana is a five win player, or even a bit better than that.  But if Hughes is a two win player and Cabrera is a 1.5 win player, then you’re only netting a win or two with that trade.  Is the reduced bullpen burden of Santana’s extra sixty innings really going to improve the team by three or four wins?  I agree that it would be difficult quantify this kind of effect with much precision, but it just doesn’t pass the smell test for me.

I’m not going to get too worked up, because the link doesn’t say that Joba would be a setup man per se, and it is going to be necessary to limit his innings somehow.  I don’t think that having him pitch two and three inning stints with three days off in between for the first couple of months of the season would be the worst thing in the world.  He can also make spot starts for anybody who gets tired or nicked up and ease his way into the rotation by mid-June.

Scranton with clams? Something tells me old thurman fan is at work here…

We need a new thread to discuss the Joba news (by discuss, I mean bitch, of course).

I think MC is right, if it’s a Santana 2002-2003 plan it’s hardly ab a bad idea.  I’ll put up a thread anyway.

Something tells me old thurman fan is at work here…

Nah, it’s a Sopranos quote.

19:

Mariano has had other bad April’s, and those were always reflected in his ERA at the end of the season. He gave up a game winning HR to Alex Rios in 06, and he allowed a 5 spot in boston in 05.

The reason that those were also magnified at the time is that when your 12-10, and two games behind boston (that’s all made up), it looks very dramatic and spawns the whole “Mo is done” thing in the media. But it’s still not fair to ask to throw a month our here and there of what’s an impeccable career, because the forecasting takes all that into account.

The real problem with Mariano (as I see it) last year was the defense (Jeter?).

In 04-06 his fip - era hovered at almost a full run less. Last year, it was almost a half run higher. His ground ball percentage is getting less favorable every year, so we need to turn more of those into outs to get the same production ERA wise.

Also, for whatever reason August (tOPS 114) is Mariano’s worst month, not april (tOPS 109).

I’m looking forward to Spring when all the talk is about how amazing Mariano’s change is…and then watching him never throw it in the season.

Oh this whole idea of Santana improving the Yanks or Sox by 5 games is garbage.

Players like that have a much bigger difference of swing on a mediocre or shittier team. Getting from 97 wins to 100 is much more difficult than swapping out a Jeff Weaver and replacing him with someone decent so he pitches less.

Someone must have done some good research to back me up somewhere…

I think a more interesting thing to project is what would happen if you move one of the teams from the AL to the NL.

I’d think even a team like Tampa Bay, while they wouldn’t be a favorite, could put together a Colorado-like run in the NL Central or West, with all the excellent young talent they have.

I’d love to see the standing simulations done with the proposed yankees and red sox trades for Santana.

We did this several threads back, and as has been described, Santana improves the Yankees by 1 or 2 games in ‘08, and he improves the Red Sox by slightly more games in ‘08.  So if he went to the Yankees, he’d close the gap with the Sox, but by no means put the Yankees over the top.  For the Sox, he’d give them more breathing room in a division they already have the “projected” lead in.  Which is why, I think, there isn’t a strong motivation to make the trade for either team.  Is the cost in young talent worth the aforementioned gains in 2008?  Then think about the potentially SMALLER gains in years 2009 and beyond.  Then think about what you have to PAY Santana, and the fact that he could still be available at the trade deadline or as a free agent after the season, when you wouldn’t have to relinquish players at all.

Yikes: Joba starting season as setup man after going through spring training as a starter.

I don’t think this news merits a “Yikes.”  This is all about innings limits.  It sounds to me like the Yankees are thinking of using Joba in the Johan Santana 2003 role, which makes a lot of sense strategically.  We’ve talked about this quite a bit in previous threads.

Anyway, I’ll run three more sets of standings per plank‘s request, one with Santana to the Yanks for Hughes/Melky, one with Santana to Scranton with Clams for Lester+, and one with Santana to Scranton with Clams for Ellsbury+.

Sweet.  My first post here after 4 or 5 years of lurking and it gets results.