I’ll sign up for 400 PA of .275/.385/.450 right now.

Posada will be fine.  i am basing this on nothing.

I’ll sign up for 400 PA of .275/.385/.450 right now.

As would I.

Posada will be fine.  i am basing this on nothing.

He’s hitting .364 this spring!  Base it on that.

I’ve always felt Jorge was underrated.

If I’m counting right, Posada is the 7th or 8th (depending on how you count Torre) most valuable catcher since 1955.  With the caveat that players like Berra lose a lot of their value with prime years coming before 1955.  This is from something Sean Smith put together.  That’s pretty big; though 2 of the top 5 are contemporaries (IRod and Piazza).  A lot of non NY fans complain about how a player’s reputation is “enhanced” by playing in NY, but it can go the other way, too.

Posada will be fine.  i am basing this on nothing.

I’ll base it on the fact that both he and everyone around the Yankees appear to be very positive.  Not, “we’re hiding something” positive, but glowingly positive.  Of course, they could have just developed better poker-faces over the winter…

also based on nothing, i have no doubt that Pudge was a PED user.

Pudge was also done as a premier offensive threat at C when he was 33. All together, he’s probably got about 10 season where he was the leagues elite offensive catcher. Posada’s got about 8, and of course, has 3 more years left on his deal.

Some also regard Pudge as one of the best defensive catchers off all time. But of course, he’s also regarded as definitely having used steroids.

A strong 3 years by Posada, if he continues to catch, and to me, he should have a HOF ticket locked up.

also based on nothing, i have no doubt that Pudge was a PED user

Don’t be too hard on yourself.  Lots of people believe that Piazza received lots of ass injections himself, and base that belief on even less.

Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

also based on nothing, i have no doubt that Pudge was a PED user.

Didn’t he sort of tacitly admit to using steroids early this spring?  IIRC, when asked he quietly responded that he didn’t want to talk about the past.  Am I imagining this?

Lots of people believe that Piazza received lots of ass injections himself, and base that belief on even less.

I was at an interleague game at the stadium some years ago, and there were legions of Yankee fans wearing pink Piazza t-shirts and shouting all sorts of ungodly things at him.  It was pretty ruthless.

I once went to an interleague game at SHEA, and a drunk Yankees fan was right in the face of a bemused Mets fan, screaming “HOW DOES IT MAKE YOU FEEL THAT YOUR BEST PLAYER IS A FAG???????”

I also saw guys in pink Piazza shirts at both Shea and the Stadium, but I feel fairly certain that at least some of them were gay fans of Mike P.

A strong 3 years by Posada, if he continues to catch, and to me, he should have a HOF ticket locked up.

I was thinking that too.  If he can be somewhere around 2005 (total value) for the next three years, he’ll be right up with other “sure thing” HOF catchers.  Obviously, that’s very difficult for a 27 year old catcher, never mind a 37 year old.  But I think the difference between a HOF player and a non is that the HOF players manage to do the difficult things more often…

Another aspect to consider with Posada is that the bench really comes into play here. You can start Posada, let him go for 6 or 7 innings, and then double switch with Molina and either Nady or Swisher, whoever is on the bench.

“HOW DOES IT MAKE YOU FEEL THAT YOUR BEST PLAYER IS A ...

Unfortunately, I live around Philadelphia where comments like that have become despicably commonplace regardless of the team/player involved.

I’m optimistic about Po.  That’s partly due to how well things have been going so far this spring and partly because I’ve chosen to be positive.  If he’s not right, the team is in trouble (especially w/ARod already out for a couple of months).  Ergo, he has to be right. 

I’m reasonably confident his bat is fine (which, in turn, should mean something like .275/.370/.450, perhaps a bit more), based on what he’s done so far this spring.  Spring stats are meaningless, but this is an established player with a solid track record - the question isn’t his ability but his health, and so far he seems healthy enough to hit.

The open question is whether he can handle defense w/o re-injuring himself.

Jorge’s counting stats are middle of the pack among HOF catchers already.  I’d expect a little degredation in his relatively strong rate stats as he contract matures.  (Sorry it’s not a pretty post, but I formatted it so that it will clean up if you paste it into Excel and space delimit the data)

.  Name .  AVG   OBP   SLG   HITS   HR   RBI   RUNS   SB
1   Johnny Bench   0.267   0.345   0.476   2,048   389   1,376   1,091   68
2   Yogi Berra   0.285   0.35   0.482   2,150   358   1,430   1,175   30
3   Roger Bresnahan   0.279   0.386   0.377   1,252   26   530   682   212
4   Roy Campanella   0.276   0.362   0.5   1,161   242   856   627   25
5   Gary Carter   0.262   0.335   0.439   2,092   324   1,225   1,025   39
6   Mickey Cochrane   0.32   0.419   0.478   1,652   119   832   1,041   64
7   Bill Dickey   0.313   0.382   0.486   1,969   202   1,209   930   36
8   Buck Ewing   0.303   0.351   0.456   1,625   71   883   1,129   354
9   Rick Ferrell   0.281   0.378   0.363   1,692   28   734   687   29
10   Carlton Fisk   0.269   0.343   0.457   2,356   376   1,330   1,276   128
11   Gabby Hartnett   0.297   0.37   0.489   1,912   236   1,179   867   28
12   Ernie Lombardi   0.306   0.358   0.46   1,792   190   990   601   8
13   Ray Schalk   0.253   0.34   0.316   1,345   11   594   579   177
14   Jorge Posada   0.277   0.38   0.477   1,379   221   883   762   16
.  Rank .  9   4   6   11   7   8   9   13

he = his* contract matures.

Jorge’s counting stats are middle of the pack among HOF catchers already.

Jorge right now is a bit borderline, definitely a little below that line.  He will get in with a) one more huge year, that is MVP caliber b) several years at catcher of being one of the top 4 in the league c) some huge post-season “heroics”.  E.g. a couple of walk-off HR in the World Series.  He’ll also have to be average-ish at C during this time as well.

The third one is argueable, but I think he’s done enough at this point that something dramatic late in his career will put him over the top, as long as he’s not thought of as a hanger-on his last few years.

Po’s case is marginal at this time, and his post-season stats do not help him (they’re really quite poor).  He needs a few more years of good work, and/or post-season fireworks.

So… yeah, what Mike K. said.

a hanger-on his last few years

Ironically, this is what will probably give him the counting numbers that the voters stereotypically look at when deciding in vs. out.

And in retrospect, “middle of the pack” was a tad generous.

A million five for Pudge. Nice result by him. I guess the WBC worked out for one guy, at least.

By the by, is Bernie seriously considering a comeback?

Sorry, I meant to mention which team - the Astros. They must be shocked there by having a catcher who can hit at ALL.

This Joba guy sucks as a starter. He should pitch teh eighth!!111!!

At least days like this shuts up the NY Post idiots, albeit for a day.

You mean the guy with the same line today as Igawa?

You mean the guy with the same line today as Igawa?

that’s hilarious.  he really did have the exact same line.

he’s actually looked pretty good this spring.  not just based on his results, but when i’ve seen him, his fastball has been down in the zone which is really his downfall. 

i wonder if there is another bad contract out there to swap him for.  a challenge trade of bad contracts.  Bill Hall comes to mind, though i don’t think Milwaukee would do it.  Bobby Crosby, though the money isn’t really a match.  something like that.

might as well let him keep pitching just in case anyone is watching.

You mean the guy with the same line today as Igawa?

Beat me to it, Rilke. Hey, we pounded Doc for four runs today! Of course, he was working exclusively on his slider…

With modern training techniques and information sharing, do we even need spring training? I mean, pitching coaches could set up video conferences to run their charges through their daily exercise, and Josh Beckett could throw to his personal catcher at home. They could all show up in Boston (NY, etc.) April 1 and start playing real games. Hell, you don’t even need to watch the kids in camp, you can just watch their live outings on a web stream.

I say this whole spring training thing is a ruse perpetuated by the states of Florida and Arizona. Let’s call them out on it, and start playing real baseball.

This is pretty funny from Pete A.:

“The Yankees gathered at 9 a.m. for some sort of motivational film. I believe it was Will Ferrell in Look Out For That Garbage Truck! The Carl Pavano Story.”

Let’s call them out on it, and start playing real baseball.

Spring training is just keep busy time until the weather warms up enough to play ball up north.

Igawa spring 09 9IP 5H 9K I think Cash is on to something with this guy.  Between Igawa, Gardner and Ransom I feel very optimistic about the coming year(s)

Cx: 12IP 6H 11K including today

I remember last season when PeteAbe asked LaTroy Hawkins if his terrific ST numbers gave him confidence for the upcoming season, and LaTroy presciently observed, “Man, Spring Training don’t mean sh*t.”

Here’s hoping Igawa keeps it up at AAA and the Yankees can move him to Petco for something ... anything.

Did everyone give up on Igawa prematurely?  His 70 innings of poor pitching was a while ago, and if he can pitch down in the zone and is still left-handed he ought to be worth something.

All you need to know about Igawa is that he wasn’t invited to pitch for the Japanese national team in the WBC.

I remember last season when PeteAbe asked LaTroy Hawkins if his terrific ST numbers gave him confidence for the upcoming season, and LaTroy presciently observed, “Man, Spring Training don’t mean sh*t.”

I wonder how much spring training numbers deviate 1) from first month numbers or whole season numbers and 2) more or less with younger vs veterans (ie, players trying to prove something vs players refining something).

You can start Posada, let him go for 6 or 7 innings, and then double switch with Molina and either Nady or Swisher, whoever is on the bench.

Much as all of us keyboard jockeys might love this sort of thing, I doubt we’ll see much of it in reality unless they carry a third catcher.

As for Posada’s HOF chances, I don’t think the quality of his defense behind the plate is going to enter into it.  He will either pad his counting stats enough to get the votes or he won’t.  He could accumulate every bit of the necessary stat-padding as a 1B/DH for all the average 10-year BBWAA member cares.  The Yankees as currently constructed need him to be able to catch, of course, but his HOF resume doesn’t.

“unless they carry a third catcher”

Or supersub Brandon Inge!!!!

...er…

...carry on.

superscrub Brandon Inge

FTFY

I keep saying the Igawa bandwagon this year might be a keeper.
(Note:  the Igawa bandwagon does not rise higher than 4th or 5th starter, the Igawa bandwagon accepts setbacks and wishes it pitched in the NL, the Igawa bandwagon is not pretty but has sweet shades.)

As long as we’re discussing Jorge’s Hall of Fame chances:

I dug up Bill James’ Keltner list:

I’m going to go through it:

1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?

No

2. Was he the best player on his team?

No.  Not on a team with Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter and others.

3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?

Not really.  That was Ivan Rodriguez.  Maybe for a season or two.

4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?

This one is a yes.

5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?

He’s old enough that this is already yes.

6. Is he the very best baseball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?

No.

7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?

At this point No.  Its still possible for this to change.

Hard to come up with a good comparable.  Jorge wasn’t nearly as good a hitter as Joe Torre, but has caught a few hundred more games.  Jorge is, surprisingly, as good a hitter as Ted Simmons, but Simmons is a few hundred games ahead.

8. Do the player’s numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?

Not yet.  Getting there is possible but not likely.

9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?

The offensive stats are probably a good representation of his performance.

10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame?

Not yet.  Aside from Ivan Rodriguez and Mike Piazza, he’s still got to catch Simmons and Torre.

11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?

Two top ten finishes.  Half as many as Don Mattingly.

12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star games go into the Hall of Fame?

Five all star appearances.  Thats probably a little low for a Hall of Famer.  The same number as Benito Santiago.  Joe Torre had that many as a catcher followed by three more at other positions.

Catchers in the HOF
Fisk had 11.  Carter had 11.  Bench had 14.  Yogi 15 as a Catcher. Piazza 12.  I.Rod 14.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Possible Yes,  Likely, no.

14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?

I can’t think of anything special here.

15. Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?

Unless catching Roger Clemens counts he’s clean.

Summary:  Jorge has a long way to go to get serious consideration.  The last five catchers voted in by the BBWAA: Gary Carter, Carlton Fisk, Johnny Bench, Yogi Berra, Roy Campanella.  Thats pretty select company.

“Best” is a tough word to interpret. Posada maybe be the 2nd or 3rd “most valuable” player on the Yankees for the last 9 years.

So if Joe Morgan was a better player than Johnny Bench, we should discount the latter’s case?  And if catchers are underrepresented in the Hall, we should continue to do so?

ISTM that HoF voters don’t pay enough attention to OBA.  Posada won’t get appropriate credit for all his walks.  So, even if though he may deserve to be elected to the HoF, I’m afraid he won’t make it.

“Did he change the game in any way?”

You’re clearly forgetting popularizing the batting gloves alternative.

Along with all those walks when he should be swinging away, I think he Ks too much, too.

Jorge wasn’t nearly as good a hitter as Joe Torre, but has caught a few hundred more games.  Jorge is, surprisingly, as good a hitter as Ted Simmons, but Simmons is a few hundred games ahead.

Career OPS +

Torre 128
Posada 124
Simmons 117
Carter 115
Rodriguez 110
(threw last 2 in for good measure)

In other words, Posada is <u>exactly</u> “nearly as good a hitter as Joe Torre” and better than Simmons.  (Yes, his OPS+ is likely to drop, I understand, but it hasn’t yet.)  If you want to talk about counting stats, go ahead, but don’t ignore the evidence.

Wow.  The Keltner list.  That took me back.

Here at RLYW we’re all entranced with that 124 OPS+, but that’s not going to be what the writers look at.  Paging through the catchers at BB Ref, I think Jorge has to hit a number of benchmarks to get over the pons asinorum that is the BBWAA standard.  Those guys like round numbers. 

1700 games caught, to put him on par with Bench, Berra, Dickey, and others.  He’s at 1390 now, so he’d have to average 100 plus games a season over the rest of this contract. Possible.

2000 hits.  He’s 721 away.  He’ll need another contract or contracts.  Given his hit rate, that’s probably six healthy years.  I don’t see it happening. 

300 home runs.  He’s at 221.  Not quite as tough as the hits, but again, it won’t happen in three years.

1000 RBIs and Runs Scored.  The RBI’s (117) are almost a lock.  The runs scored (238) are possible.

If he can do all that, he’ll look (to a sportswriter) a lot like Gary Carter with less glove but more rings.  Mind you, he could get all these and not get in.  I just don’t see how he gets in without all or nearly all of them. 

Clearly his best chance for the Hall is to hang around baseball after this contract is done, and pile up hits as a DH/1B.  Not original analysis, but there it is.

Looking at all these guys, I was reminded that Carlton Fisk hung around for three years of sucking so that he could beat Bob Boone’s games-caught record—by one.  What a dick, I mean, that seems ungentlemanly of him.  If Pudge starts in Houston—and it looks like he will—he should pass Fisk in June.

ISTM that HoF voters don’t pay enough attention to OBA.  Posada won’t get appropriate credit for all his walks.  So, even if though he may deserve to be elected to the HoF, I’m afraid he won’t make it.

Today’s HOF voters may not be tomorrow’s HOF voters.  Assuming Posada retires after this contract, he’ll be up for election in 8 years.  Among some other sabremetrically inclined writers, Rob Neyer should be getting a vote two years after that.  I think if Jorge retired today he’d have enough support to stay on the ballot for a decade.

Now that doesn’t mean Neyer or writers like him *will* vote for Jorge.  But I think they are more likely to consider his career for what it was, and not look at some magic thresholds.

If Pudge starts in Houston—and it looks like he will—he should pass Fisk in June.

So Pudge will pass…Pudge?

Is ARoid serious with these Details Mag photos?  This guy is doing his best to make me give up my Yankee allegiance.  Just shut up and rehab- enough with the PR people and handlers.  Maybe we should just give up and shout for everyone to hear: “we love our spineless, lying, classless, gay 3Bman!”

Today’s HOF voters may not be tomorrow’s HOF voters.  Assuming Posada retires after this contract, he’ll be up for election in 8 years.  Among some other sabremetrically inclined writers, Rob Neyer should be getting a vote two years after that.  I think if Jorge retired today he’d have enough support to stay on the ballot for a decade.

I’m not sure about that last bit…he’s so borderline right now, and the BBWAA is so filled with fools, I don’t think Jorge would stay on the ballot if he retired now...but I think you’re right on about the rest.  Jorge will have a long time for more advanced stat analysts to permeate the ranks.  Just a little more time for Jorge, maybe one more monster season and two or three more average+, and I think he’s in.

13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant?

Possible Yes, Likely, no.

I think this is a bit unfair.  First of all, Posada arguably was the best player on pennant winning teams in 2000 and 2003 (not a slam-dunk in either case, but he’s close).  Second, I imagine that you could find a number of pennant winners that didn’t have a better player than the 2007 version of Posada.

This also impacts questions 2 and 3 on the list.

I don’t think Jorge would stay on the ballot if he retired now

IIRC, you need 5% of votes to stay on the ballot.  So that’s about 30 people.  Piazza and IRod will both probably already be in, so pretty clearly Posada will be the best catcher still on the ballot; the only other one on the ballot even close to him would be Kendall.  I’m sure he could get 30-40 people voting for him every year, even if he didn’t do much anything else.  I doubt he’d ever get up to 50% in that case - even with the “sabremetric crowd” starting to vote - but I think he’d stay on the ballot and be eligible for the VC (though their rules may change again).

i don’t know if he would stay on the ballot.  writers like certain guys for various reasons and sometimes those reasons are not always logical.

Will Clark fell off the ballot in his first year. 

Will Clark was a better player than Mattingly (or he had a better career than Mattingly), but Mattingly gets enough support to stay on the ballot. 

a lot of it has to do with this subjective “did this guy FEEL like a Hall of Famer when he was around?” type nonsense.  and not many think of Clark as a HoFer, even though his numbers suggest AT LEAST a closer look.  the same thing will happen to John Olerud, i would guess.

i don’t know if he would stay on the ballot.  writers like certain guys for various reasons and sometimes those reasons are not always logical.

True enough.  There seems right now to be a bit of, “building from the farm with guys like Jeter, Posada, Rivera…is how the Yankees won championships!”  Possibly the anti-ARod bias will help true-blue Jorge?  Oh, I have no idea.  But I think Jorge may be one of those guys that are “liked” for illogical reasons.  I wouldn’t mind at all if about 400 voters liked him for any reason, illogical or otherwise.

But, we’re on to Tex…