Come on, man.  In this economy, a marginal win is worth something like 87 cents.

I blame Snacks Pontoon.

Glad to see that we’re still ragging on the fat idiots.

From the last thread, questioning how much effect flipping Damon/Jeter will have…Neyer blogged about it yesterday and referenced a David Pinto posting (I’d get you the link but it’s basically one sentence that is worth-while) where Pinto said the move should be worth about 3 runs over the course of the season.  So pretty minimal, but depending on distribution that *could* mean as many as +3 wins.  More likely, it may add a win which of course could decide if the Yankees are in the playoffs.

Overall the Damon signing has been good for the Yankees.  It filled a need that really couldn’t have been filled in a different way.  He’s been a positive both on AND off the field for the Yankees.  I don’t have an opinion yet on whether or not I’d want him back for next season.  It will depend on how he plays, how other Yankees play, and what their other needs are.  Hopefully if this is Damon’s last season with the Yanks, he can go out with a ring.

I don’t have an opinion yet on whether or not I’d want him back for next season.

The only way I think I might want him back beyond 2009 is if he were willing to sign for one year at a time, and I just don’t see that happening.

Assuming he hits his projection, I’d be open to resigning him for two years but no more.

i guess it depends on what the market looks like next year (and obviously what Damon does this season).  if it’s similar to this year, and you have Holliday for $100M/5 vs. Damon for $8M/1, it might make sense to take Damon back.

if Damon can get 2-3 years from someone, then i’d rather splurge for Holliday.

but yeah, Damon has hit enough to justify his contract.  Beltran was still the much smarter move, but there was no turning the clock back at the time Damon was available, so the yankees were lucky to salvage decent production from Damon. 

also, when did Damon hit the DL?  i’d imagine those ZR number reflect the injury he suffered running into the wall.

Assuming your annual values are correct you would take Holliday at 5/100 over Damon at 2/16?  I’d rather have the flexibility.

sorry, i meant that if the market rebounded and Damon was getting actual money, like say $36M/3, i’d rather go for Holliday.

if the market is like this year, and Damon is this year’s Abreu, then yeah, that might push the equation towards Damon.

of course, there might be a third option in the middle, someone like Rick Ankiel who can be had for 1 or 2 years and fill a corner nicely until something better/cheaper than Holliday comes along.

oh, and there is also Manny who could be available…

...and Bonds…

Have you guys read “Joe Torre’s” book yet?  I put that in quotes because having read it, I found a surprising lack of Torre’s presence between the covers.  The reason I bring it up is that according to the book it seems that Damon has struggled with whether or not he even wants to play baseball anymore during much of the time he’s been in pinstripes, and this has had a negative effect on the clubhouse while possibly suppressing his own performance between the lines.

I want to like Damon and if he hits his projections this year I’d like to see him retained—but not if he truly is disillusioned with professional baseball.  No way.

supposed Damon’s body was hurting him quite a bit in 2007 and he PRIVATELY conversed with Torre about his desire to keep playing.

i’d consider his 2008 season as rendering all of this moot however.

I want to like Damon and if he hits his projections this year I’d like to see him retained—but not if he truly is disillusioned with professional baseball.  No way.

I haven’t read the book.  But if it is also possible that some of his “disillusionment” (is that a word?  Is now.) was because of Torre, maybe he’s been reinvigored by Girardi.

My main thing right now is I’m not sure if I want Damon back at all.  I *want* to want Damon back, because I like his energy and attitude.  So let’s see him play.  BUT, even if I want him back, that doesn’t mean I might not agree that there could be a better move. 

E.g. I saw a nice Gibson LP last week that I want.  But it makes more sense for me to spend the $2500 paying down debt and putting towards my children’s college funds.  I’m very willing to admit that what I want and what is best can be different things.

I didn’t think it would happen, but I’ve warmed up to Damon.

I wish I could say the same but I still hate him though through no real fault of his own.  It’s equal parts former Red Sox/2004 Game 7 grand slam and that he isn’t Carlos Beltran.  Actually I guess my biggest complaint is his fault, the fact that while he was a valuable piece, he was a complete bust as a CF.  We got one good season in CF out of him and outside of that 1 year CF continues to be just as much a problem as it was before he signed.

It’s equal parts former Red Sox/2004 Game 7 grand slam and that he isn’t Carlos Beltran.

This is like hating you’re wife in equal parts because she used to date someone better looking than you and because she’s no Charlize Theron herself.

Actually I guess my biggest complaint is his fault, the fact that while he was a valuable piece, he was a complete bust as a CF.  We got one good season in CF out of him and outside of that 1 year CF continues to be just as much a problem as it was before he signed.

This isn’t Damon’s fault either.  If the FO was assuming that he’d be able to hold down CF for the full term of the contract, then they were out of their minds.  If they were figuring on moving him to left all along, then it’s still on them for not doing a better job of replacing him in CF.

oh, and there is also Manny who could be available…

Will the Rays definitely exercise Crawford’s $10M option? Adding Crawford and Manny would be nice.

eh, forget Manny - not worth the cost.  Crawford, however, would so very nice.

MIke, get the Gibson.  You can always earn other money.  You can always not buy yourself other stuff.  Do you want to be on your deathbed and realize you could have spent your whole life with a Les Paul, and instead you have $2500?  A Gibson will make you a happier, richer person, and your wife and children will be better for it.  A fancy car, a flatscreen TV, jetskis—sure, those are toys for suckers and a family man should turn up his nose.  But not a Gibson. There are other kinds of investments besides securities.

On the other hand, no way in hell should the Yankees resign Damon.

But it makes more sense for me to spend the $2500 paying down debt and putting towards my children’s college funds.

Maybe your kid will get drafted out of high school and you won’t have to worry about college funds.

Mike, Howzabout an SG for mere $1800?
Fender guy myself.

This is like hating you’re wife in equal parts because she used to date someone better looking than you and because she’s no Charlize Theron herself.

I said it wasn’t his fault.  I know it’s not fair but it’s the nature of sports.  I wouldn’t expect Red Sox fans to ever warm up to Aaron Boone.

And for the record I’m more of a Kate Beckinsale kind of guy.

I’m a Fender girl (admittedly only have experience with basses) myself, and a good guitar is great but it depends on what you’re using it for to some degree- if you’re playing it for yourself it depends on how picky your own ears are.

What I’d do if you really want it is, um, buy the Gibson but stop going out to dinner and lunch until you’d recouped the cost.  But I’m not entirely sane.

SG costs $1800 now? Whatever happened to “Hey, it’s free!” ???

A Gibson will make you a happier, richer person, and your wife and children will be better for it.

Ah, there’s the rub.  Not worth fighting with my wife over it at this time; she’s told me IF I stick with playing guitar and I’m not just fiddling with it occasionally (I’ve only been seriously trying to learn for a couple of months now), I may get a nice x-mas present in the next couple of years.

Mike, Howzabout an SG for mere $1800?
Fender guy myself.

I’ve got an 80’s strat, but it needs some work done to it.  I’m actually looking to get an Epiphone sometime in the next few weeks; I’m waffling between an SG and or spending $100 more for an LP.

And for the record I’m more of a Kate Beckinsale kind of guy.

Who isn’t?

I’m more of a Kate Beckinsale kind of guy

I doubt anyone will argue that one.

Jeter leading off-no more first inning sac bunts?-woo hoo

Jeter leading off-no more first inning sac bunts?-woo hoo

As I mentioned in the previous thread, how do we know Damon won’t start bunting every time Jeter reaches in the first inning?

Who isn’t?

Mike Piazza?

I doubt anyone will argue that one.

Wait a second.  You’re telling me that a bunch of guys living in their moms’ basements aren’t going to argue about whether Kate Beckinsale is good enough for them?  Geeks ain’t what they used to be.

LOL.  Well played, MC.

“how do we know Damon won’t start bunting every time Jeter reaches in the first inning?”

Well, he might, inspired by The Captain.  But he’s in a walk year, so I bet he’s smart enough to know that a couple more RBI doubles are better than a couple more sac bunts.  Then again, he’s an idiot.

As I mentioned in the previous thread, how do we know Damon won’t start bunting every time Jeter reaches in the first inning?

Two things:

1) Damon’s more likely to beat a bunt out than Jeter
2) Jeter is more likely to get on base than Damon, so it doesn’t hurt as much if Damon sacrifices.

I’m just being contrary

Hey SG, for some of the other recent posts you’ve put where the player in question stands among his peers (in 2008).  Where do you have Damon w/ respect to other LF?  FanGraphs Value Wins has him 6th (.1 win behind Xavier-something).  I think the WAR you are using is a little different, so just curious. 

If I may, I like having that as part of these “looking ahead” segments, though if the player isn’t one of the tops in the league it can take up a lot of space.  Thanks!

2008 OBP’s:
Jeter .363
Damon .375

Has Kate Beckinsale been in some movie I should have seen?  Ok, I have seen the Branagh _Much Ado_.

2008 OBP’s:

Damon’s highest since 2004, and 4th highest for his career (.354).  Jeter’s was the lowest since 2004, and 2nd lowest of his career (.387).  The projections (using the “average”) also have 2009 .355 for Damon and .365 for Jeter.  I stand by my claim that Jeter is more likely to get on base (I’m assuming that’s what you’re referring to). 

Though as I said, I was mostly doing [30] to be contrary.  Personally, I hope Damon only bunts AFTER getting 1 strike, if Jeter is on 2nd with no one out in a tie game in the 8th or 9th.  Even then I won’t be upset if he doesn’t.

Has Kate Beckinsale been in some movie I should have seen?

Depends on your tastes, I suppose.  I liked the first two Underworld movies, particularly the first one.  I mean, they’re not in my top-10 or anything, but I enjoyed them.  The other one I can think of her in was Van Helsing, which was OK.  Not something that you’ve missed anything if you never see it, but okay.

Has Kate Beckinsale been in some movie I should have seen?  Ok, I have seen the Branagh _Much Ado_.

I’ve only seen Serendipity (it was the wife’s turn to pick) but that’s all it took.  She was gorgeous in that movie.  I’ve since seen pictures of her in the tight outfit from Underworld but I’ve never actually seen any of the movies.

I think the power difference between Jeter and Damon is enough to justify the switch. Damon still gets XBH’s with regularity, Jeter’s XBH have fallen of a cliff. The marginal difference in their OBP projections shouldn’t be as important as that IMO.

I personally enjoyed the leather outfits she was dressed in while kicking some Lycan ass.

I enjoyed KB’s work in Cold Comfort Farm, but that was a very different movie (I liked Underworld too, so I’m not, like, you know…)

Oh and Laurel Canyon was kind of interesting and sexy.  And she was funny in a smaller role in Last Days of Disco.

I was just about to mention LC.  Wasn’t she in a lesbo scene in that movie?

“lesbo scene”

Well, I call it the beauty of XX-XX love.  It was sort of trending that way but never got there.  With her mother-in-law, though!  In a pool!

And the blond from Californication was in it also

Seriously, does Goldman ever approve of anything the Yankees do?  He’s turned into Steve Lombardi.

Where do you have Damon w/ respect to other LF?  FanGraphs Value Wins has him 6th (.1 win behind Xavier-something).  I think the WAR you are using is a little different, so just curious.

I’ve got him fourth.

Ok, I saw Laurel Canyon.  The character really annoyed me because she’s a scientist and of course has to be uptight and socially awkward with her hair up in a knot and needing to be set free by the earth mother hippie and the guy on the motorcycle.

SG, I know your batting runs for replacement level are league normalized, are they park-adjusted at all?  Just curious.  I would have thought that RL for Coors would be higher than Miller (ha, I like that), but it’s almost 7 runs higher in Milwaukee.

And everyone knows scientists are uptight and socially awkward who could never speak to someone of the opposite sex unless the other person makes a heroic effort.

I would be ecstatic if Damon was the 4th most valuable outfielder in the league next year.
I can’t see how he’s more valuable than Crawford however and he’s in the AL East.

“The character really annoyed me because she’s a scientist and of course has to be uptight and socially awkward with her hair up in a knot and needing to be set free by the earth mother hippie and the guy on the motorcycle. “

Hit a little close to home, eh, rilke?

I can’t see how he’s more valuable than Crawford however and he’s in the AL East.

Crawford might have him on a rate basis, but he missed quite a bit of time last year.

Crawford I see.  He wasn’t good last year offensively but Damon better than Manny?

“Hit a little close to home, eh, rilke?”

Yes, I am as handsome as Beckinsale is beautiful and I have never had any idea how to have fun or even relax.  I’m wearing a suit and tie and goggles and drinking tap water right now.

SG, I know your batting runs for replacement level are league normalized, are they park-adjusted at all

They should be, but it’s possible there’s a bug in my spreadsheet.  BRAR are calculated using the following steps:

1) Calculate raw batting runs using linear weights
2) Divide those raw batting runs by the park factor multiplier (PF + 1)/2 where PF = park factor in terms of run scoring.  Coors was 1.07 last year.

And I found my bug, I’m multiplying instead of dividing.  I’ll post a new list.

He wasn’t good last year offensively but Damon better than Manny?

Another bug, I forgot to combine the batting lines for people who played on multiple teams.

Or the scientist in Cat’s Cradle who leaves his job working on the bomb and when the government asks his daughter how to get him back she mentions take away his frogs and he’ll have nothing to play with other then the bomb(as I remember the book.)  I used to work at Bell Labs and a non insignificant portion of the scientists weren’t exactly well rounded. Of course some were also awfully cool and enjoyed dabbling in Owsley’s invention.

Wasn’t Christian Bale the really uptight one in that movie?

Tap water is nerdy?

Yeah, that looks better.

I’m just rereading _Bluebeard_, which is as enjoyable if not as powerful as _CC_. 

I wouldn’t care if Beckinsale’s character was obsessive about her work, because duh, or even entirely single-minded [praeteritio of long list of colleagues’ cool side activities], it’s just the whole She needs to take some drugs and listen to rock music and wear sexier clothes and sleep around to have a worthwhile life morality behind the movie that annoyed and even worse bored me.  The physicist in _CC_ is a person not a lecture.

I want to see a movie about Beckinsale as a scientist who teaches a bunch of rock musicians to use R and use scopes and run Monte Carlos and be disciplined and how that turns their lives around.

In seriousness, don’t you think LC portrayed the rock people as sort of sleazy?  I mean KB winds up rejecting them.  Or maybe it’s just that I can’t stand dirty fucking hippies who live up Laurel Canyon.

SG - Thanks, that helps.  Good to know, thought that first table looked a little off. 

It’s always nice to see the raw batting runs and then the BRAR for the tables.

Was Nady left off because he spent his time in Pitt in RF but most of in NY in LF?  In general is there a huge difference (other than arm) between a LF and RF when evaluating for a corner outfield spot?  To be more direct, is there any reason why his (or anyone elses) time in RF shouldn’t count?

Crickets this evening.
Yup- Didja enjoy the Big finale Sunday?
I was a wee bit underwhelmed. Hoped for more sex and bloodletting.

yeah, it wasn’t as good as the previous 4-5 episodes.  it was ok up until the end but i didn’t like how they ended it.  everything got wrapped up, not sure what that means going forward.  still, it was a pretty entertaining season of a show i was ready to give up on.  kindof unexpected how good it got there for a while.

Since most of his gains were all BA-based, I’d really like to know what his BABIP was last year.  Was it a symptom of luck and can we expect some regression toward the mean in addition to aging, or did pulling him out of CF give his legs some energy to beat out some hits?

.331 vs. .310 for his career.

He’s turned into Steve Lombardi.

Well, at least it’s like a Steve Lombardi who can actually write and says something mildly humorous once in a while.

Melky is closing fast on Gardner. 

what happens if the “great CF playoff” is a tie?

Is it me or is there a lot of irrational lust on this board for Carl Crawford.  He’s nice player whose offensive value is heavily BA-dependent and whose career high OPS+ is 117, an excellent defender at the easiest position on the defensive spectrum.  When he hits the FA market next year some team is almost certainly going to overpay him in dollars and years.

no, you have a point. 

but it depends if Crawford can play CF or not.  everything about his skillset screams CFer, yet the Rays never wanted to play him there. 

could never solve that riddle.

It’s going to be a problem for the yankees if the “great cf playoff” ends in a tie.  Under the rules set forth by randy levine and hank, both men must, in the case of a tie, proceed to extended spring training, where the winner will be determined on May 1 by the composite result of a number of tests, including MMA bout; tennis match; and hot dog eating contest.

No sack race?

Presumably the two men will be too winded after the cigarette smoking contest to participate in the sack race.  Anyway, the sack race is a test that Yankees brass generally reserve for IF prospects.

SG- Are you citing the WAR values in dollars for the Yankees assuming they are inflated?

The current WAR in millions is 4.5 according to “The Book” blog.

Why would you want SG to use the current value of a marginal win to calculate Damon’s value in previous years when the value of a marginal win was higher?  The price of gasoline is only half of what it was a year ago, but that doesn’t mean that we were all needlessly overpaying last year.

SG assumes that the Yankees value a win more than other teams (by as much as a million per win, I think).

Melky 3 for 4 today and I still think he’s a less bad option at CF but we’ll see

They seem committed to seeing if Brett Gardner can repeat his first-I-fail-and-the-next-year-I-figure-it-out pattern at the major league level before they give Melky a last chance at coming back from the grave.  It’s not the most odds-savvy choice, as we have seen in these pages, but it makes a certain kind of emotional sense, given the way Melky has toyed with our hearts.  Although my head agrees with you, Bebop, I have to say I’m at least perversely curious to see someone else in CF for a while.

“It’s not the most odds-savvy choice”

Actually, that’s wrong.  They project the same, ignoring baserunning.  That’s without the ratchet pattern.

Lets hope Brett is a late bloomer and makes me look foolish as inevitably happens on a daily basis.  BG for ROY.

He doesn’t need to make you look foolish - I don’t think people expect he will - they just want him to be serviceable in CF for about a season while AJax becomes ready to provide some wins there.

Is Gardner still a rookie? I think we’ll have to settle for MVP.

Gardner is still officially a rookie.  The cutoff is “more than 130 at bats” and he has 127.  Don’t ask me why it’s ABs and not PAs.

He doesn’t need to make you look foolish - I don’t think people expect he will - they just want him to be serviceable in CF for about a season while AJax becomes ready to provide some wins there.

Exactly.  There’s a lot of argument here over whether the projections can be trusted.  But Chone has him for a .686 OPS (I believe), which isn’t exactly optimistic.  Add that to his baserunning and defense, and he’s approaching average.  That’s perfectly good enough for me for a year, and if he fails the Yankees have other options.

Don’t ask me why it’s ABs and not PAs.

The ROY is a BBWA award right?  So easy to figure out; writers like “back of baseball card” stats.  And certainly through the early 90’s at least (last time I collected), AB were on the back of a card, not PA.

Where the hell is all this buzz about Ramiro Pena coming from? Dude hasn’t sniffed a .700 OPS in any level of the minor leagues.

Where the hell is all this buzz about Ramiro Pena coming from? Dude hasn’t sniffed a .700 OPS in any level of the minor leagues.

Of the candidates for UIF, he’s probably the best defender.  Definitely the best at SS, and so far they like how he’s been handling the other positions as well.  Also, he’s probably the best baserunner of the candidates.  For a UIF you’re usually looking at defensive replacement/pinch-runner, so he probably fits the bill the best.  Also, of the candidates he’s probably the only one who possibly has a future beyond 2009 with the Yankees.

Finally, his spring-training numbers are solid; while meaningless, that’s more than enough for most MSM members.  Hopefully if the Yankee-brass are looking at anything in ST hitting-wise, they see a change in his approach that they like.

Pena can be the UIF…in 2010.  besides being a bad use of the 40 man, it would probably be a disservice to him to make him the UIF right now.  he needs a future season in AAA.  if he can get on base at a non-embarrassing clip, maybe he has a future if his glove is as good as they say. 

i’m not saying you are suggesting otherwise, Mike, but others have (Abraham) suggested he make the team over Berroa.

while that may be the better long term plan, it’s just bad roster management.  you can just cut Berroa if you need his spot.

More likely than not, someone saw him make a nice play in a ST game and said “hey, I’ve got some insider information on…. wait.. what’s that guys name?”

“he needs a FULL season in AAA.”

as to j’s point, it does make for a good angle for a writer to say “we never would have even seen this kid if not for the WBC!”

I would be embarassed to be a sportswriter these days. They’re on their way to used car salesman status.

others have (Abraham) suggested he make the team over Berroa.

while that may be the better long term plan, it’s just bad roster management.  you can just cut Berroa if you need his spot.

Does Abraham ever even think about roster management?  Do most MSM guys?  It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Pete was blissfully unaware of the fact that somebody would have to be DFA in order for Pena to make the team.

Then again, Berroa’s not on the 40-man either.  One way or another, they have to make some kind of roster move to make room for a utility infielder until Rodriguez is back.  With Ransom the starting 3Bman for the time being, none of the BUI candidates is currently on the 40-man roster.

So I guess the actual circumstances mean that Abraham gets a pass on this one, whether he deserves it or not.

i’m not saying you are suggesting otherwise, Mike, but others have (Abraham) suggested he make the team over Berroa.

The emotional part of me wants Pena to make the team, since it’s the homegrown kid (and not the guy who robbed Godzilla of a ROY!).  The logical side realizes he could use some time in AAA, if only to get his confidence up.  The only “real” argument I can make for him being on the ML roster out of ST, is if he gets a hot start, and then isn’t awful the rest of the way, he may become a viable option to replace Jeter, politically.  That needs quite a bit of luck to happen though, even if Pena really HAS turned a corner with the bat.

But I agree he should start the year at AAA.  I don’t know if he needs a FULL season though.  He’ll probably get one; as long as Ransom is OK in April, he’s the UIF come May.  Berroa will either suck and be released, or play fairly well and not clear waivers (so he may be traded instead).  So there’s no reason for Pena to come up, unless there’s an injury.  If he’s playing well enough I don’t see any reason to keep in in AAA.  I don’t think there’s any point in debating what would constitute “well enough” at this point.

Abraham: “Holy smoke, young guys bunting and the Yankees running. What is going on here?”

Oh, god.

Later: “Matsui single scores Damon. 6-2. Look at what those two bunt singles produced.”

Yes, as if ONLY those two bunt singles would have started the rally. A regular single just wouldn’t work. Never mind the walk, sac fly, or 3 other hits in the inning.

AJ got kicked around today

Thats putting it nicely.

Gardner is the CF

Looks like we have actual baseball news today.

Buck says Melky is traded in a week. I bet 10 GM’s have been waiting out this situation for 3 months.

It’ll be fun to see what Gardner can do.. he certainly has a unique skill set. Honestly, I would have been surprised if they didn’t give him a shot out of the gate.

Buck says Melky is traded in a week.

And most likely for low minors non-prospects.  Despite his nice spring, his value is still pretty much nil and like I said, they need to open up a roster spot.