Saturday, April 4, 2009
Looking Ahead to 2009: Brian Bruney, Jose Veras and Damaso Marte
And here are the rest of the mortal members of the Opening Day pen.
2008| brian bruney | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 50 | 50 | 28 | 26 | 6 | 27 | 43 | 4.68 | 4.66 | -1 | 4 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 52 | 50 | 28 | 26 | 5 | 28 | 44 | 4.50 | 4.37 | 0 | 5 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 30 | 27 | 16 | 15 | 4 | 19 | 27 | 4.60 | 4.86 | 0 | 3 |
| 2008 zips projection | 61 | 62 | 39 | 36 | 8 | 37 | 48 | 5.31 | 5.15 | -6 | 1 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 42 | 40 | 25 | 24 | 5 | 27 | 34 | 5.14 | 5.06 | -3 | 1 |
| 2008 average projection | 47 | 46 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 28 | 39 | 4.85 | 4.82 | -2 | 3 |
| 2008 actual totals | 34 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 16 | 33 | 1.84 | 3.43 | 10 | 14 |
| difference | -13 | 202% | 127% | 115% | -3.01 | -1.39 | 12 | 11 |
Brian Bruney was very good in 2008, although he missed a large part of the season with a LisFranc injury. While his 1.84 ERA likely overstates how effective he was, his FIP of 3.43 ws still very good. On a rate basis, Bruney gave up fewer HRs, walked fewer batters, and struck out more batters than projected. Doesn't get much better than that.
| damaso marte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 47 | 42 | 20 | 19 | 4 | 21 | 49 | 3.64 | 3.56 | 5 | 9 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 53 | 50 | 25 | 22 | 5 | 24 | 50 | 3.74 | 3.90 | 5 | 10 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 43 | 39 | 19 | 18 | 4 | 22 | 45 | 3.69 | 3.87 | 4 | 8 |
| 2008 zips projection | 52 | 46 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 27 | 57 | 3.63 | 3.57 | 5 | 10 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 55 | 44 | 25 | 22 | 4 | 26 | 64 | 3.60 | 3.24 | 6 | 11 |
| 2008 average projection | 50 | 44 | 22 | 20 | 4 | 24 | 53 | 3.66 | 3.63 | 5 | 10 |
| 2008 actual totals | 65 | 52 | 29 | 29 | 5 | 26 | 71 | 4.02 | 3.22 | 4 | 10 |
| difference | 15 | 110% | 120% | 103% | 0.36 | -0.41 | -1 | 0 |
Unfortunately the rest of his Yankee tenure wasn't so hot, although it appears it was at least partially due to injury. If you look at ERA, Marte did not hit his projections, but a quick glance at his peripherals and FIP show that he actually pitched better than projected overall.
| jose veras | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2008 chone projection | 44 | 45 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 20 | 37 | 4.50 | 4.36 | 0 | 4 |
| 2008 marcel projection | 31 | 30 | 17 | 16 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 4.65 | 4.20 | 0 | 3 |
| 2008 pecota projection | 47 | 48 | 27 | 25 | 5 | 24 | 39 | 4.66 | 4.41 | -1 | 4 |
| 2008 zips projection | 61 | 67 | 38 | 35 | 9 | 25 | 41 | 5.16 | 5.00 | -5 | 2 |
| 2008 cairo projection | 33 | 36 | 17 | 17 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 4.64 | 4.38 | -1 | 3 |
| 2008 average projection | 43 | 45 | 24 | 23 | 5 | 19 | 33 | 4.72 | 4.47 | -1 | 3 |
| 2008 actual totals | 58 | 52 | 23 | 23 | 7 | 29 | 63 | 3.59 | 4.10 | 6 | 12 |
| difference | 14 | 96% | 85% | 143% | -1.13 | -0.37 | 7 | 8 |
Jose Veras had a strong season in 2008, although he faded towards the end. Over his first 46 games, he pitched 46 innings with a 2.70 ERA (3.83 FIP). Over his last 14 games, he had a 7.36 ERA (6.74 FIP). While I thought Joe Girardi did well with the pitching staff and especially the bullpen last year, one thing that I didn't like was he seemed to overuse Veras. I don't know if that's what led to his ineffectiveness at the end of the season or not, but it's something I'll be watching this year. Overall though, it's safe to say that Veras outpitched his projections pretty handily.
Legend
IP: Innings pitched
H: Hits allowed
R: Runs allowed
ER:Earned runs allowed
HR: HR allowed
BB: Walks
SO: Strikeouts
ERA: Earned run average
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
RSAA: Runs saved above an average pitcher (starters are compared to starters, relievers are compared to relievers)
RSAR: Runs saved above a replacement-level pitcher(I use 1.2 times average to get replacement level ERA)
2009
| brian bruney | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 46 | 43 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 26 | 43 | 4.11 | 4.16 | 2 | 7 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 48 | 41 | 21 | 19 | 4 | 23 | 39 | 3.56 | 4.10 | 5 | 10 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 44 | 41 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 27 | 39 | 4.47 | 4.69 | 0 | 5 |
| 2009 tht projection | 50 | 41 | 23 | 21 | 5 | 26 | 46 | 3.80 | 4.22 | 4 | 9 |
| 2009 zips projection | 45 | 40 | 25 | 23 | 5 | 31 | 41 | 4.63 | 4.90 | -1 | 4 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 50 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 30 | 42 | 4.95 | 4.84 | -2 | 2 |
| 2009 average projection | 47 | 42 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 27 | 42 | 4.25 | 4.48 | 1 | 6 |
| brian bruney cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 55 | 43 | 26 | 24 | 4 | 27 | 53 | 4.00 | 3.62 | 3 | 8 |
| 65% | 52 | 44 | 27 | 26 | 5 | 29 | 47 | 4.48 | 4.23 | 0 | 5 |
| Baseline | 50 | 45 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 30 | 42 | 4.95 | 4.84 | -2 | 2 |
| 35% | 45 | 44 | 28 | 27 | 6 | 29 | 35 | 5.42 | 5.45 | -5 | 0 |
| 20% | 40 | 42 | 27 | 26 | 7 | 28 | 28 | 5.90 | 6.06 | -6 | -2 |
Bruney's walk rate is still not very good, and that leads to the less than impressive projections you see above. I think Bruney will outpitch those, but it's a hunch, not based on anything empirical.
| damaso marte | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 50 | 47 | 23 | 21 | 4 | 22 | 48 | 3.78 | 3.64 | 4 | 9 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 62 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 5 | 25 | 57 | 3.92 | 3.62 | 4 | 10 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 56 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 6 | 25 | 55 | 3.76 | 3.84 | 5 | 10 |
| 2009 tht projection | 65 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 28 | 64 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 6 | 12 |
| 2009 zips projection | 55 | 45 | 24 | 22 | 5 | 27 | 62 | 3.58 | 3.60 | 6 | 11 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 58 | 51 | 29 | 27 | 5 | 27 | 57 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 3 | 8 |
| 2009 average projection | 58 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 5 | 26 | 57 | 3.81 | 3.70 | 4 | 10 |
| damaso marte cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 64 | 49 | 26 | 24 | 3 | 24 | 71 | 3.30 | 2.75 | 9 | 15 |
| 65% | 61 | 50 | 28 | 25 | 4 | 25 | 64 | 3.70 | 3.26 | 5 | 12 |
| Baseline | 58 | 51 | 29 | 27 | 5 | 27 | 57 | 4.09 | 3.77 | 3 | 8 |
| 35% | 53 | 49 | 29 | 26 | 6 | 26 | 48 | 4.49 | 4.29 | 0 | 5 |
| 20% | 47 | 47 | 28 | 25 | 6 | 25 | 39 | 4.89 | 4.80 | -2 | 3 |
Marte generally projects well too. He's probably the favorite to be the setup man right now, and while that may be a little scary, remember that this team ran Kyle Farnsworth out there as a setup man for 2.5 years. Marte's got good stuff, and while he's tougher on lefties, he's no slouch against righties either.
| jose veras | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 2009 chone projection | 60 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 26 | 60 | 4.05 | 3.80 | 3 | 9 |
| 2009 marcel projection | 55 | 52 | 26 | 25 | 6 | 24 | 47 | 4.09 | 4.22 | 3 | 8 |
| 2009 pecota projection | 60 | 54 | 27 | 25 | 6 | 25 | 58 | 3.70 | 3.75 | 5 | 11 |
| 2009 tht projection | 66 | 58 | 30 | 28 | 6 | 29 | 66 | 3.85 | 3.70 | 5 | 11 |
| 2009 zips projection | 54 | 52 | 28 | 26 | 7 | 26 | 53 | 4.31 | 4.36 | 1 | 7 |
| 2009 cairo projection | 59 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 50 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 0 | 6 |
| 2009 average projection | 59 | 56 | 29 | 27 | 6 | 26 | 56 | 4.09 | 4.03 | 3 | 9 |
| jose veras cairo % | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR |
| 80% | 65 | 59 | 28 | 27 | 5 | 22 | 63 | 3.70 | 3.26 | 6 | 12 |
| 65% | 62 | 60 | 29 | 28 | 6 | 24 | 56 | 4.11 | 3.80 | 3 | 9 |
| Baseline | 59 | 61 | 31 | 30 | 7 | 25 | 50 | 4.53 | 4.34 | 0 | 6 |
| 35% | 53 | 58 | 30 | 29 | 8 | 25 | 42 | 4.95 | 4.88 | -3 | 3 |
| 20% | 47 | 55 | 29 | 28 | 8 | 24 | 34 | 5.36 | 5.42 | -5 | 0 |
Veras's projections expect him to pitch about as well as he pitched last year for the most part, with his ERA falling more into line with his peripherals. While I am still not enamored with his command, his fastball and his slider are both nasty pitches.
Value
| damaso marte: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 10 | 1.0 |
| 2009 Salary | $3,750,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $3,066,469 | ($683,531) |
| $3,500,000 | $3,577,547 | ($172,453) |
| $4,000,000 | $4,088,625 | $338,625 |
| $4,500,000 | $4,599,703 | $849,703 |
| $5,000,000 | $5,110,781 | $1,360,781 |
| $5,500,000 | $5,621,860 | $1,871,860 |
| $6,000,000 | $6,132,938 | $2,382,938 |
| brian bruney: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 6 | 0.6 |
| 2009 Salary | $1,250,000 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $1,798,419 | $548,419 |
| $3,500,000 | $2,098,155 | $848,155 |
| $4,000,000 | $2,397,892 | $1,147,892 |
| $4,500,000 | $2,697,628 | $1,447,628 |
| $5,000,000 | $2,997,364 | $1,747,364 |
| $5,500,000 | $3,297,101 | $2,047,101 |
| $6,000,000 | $3,596,837 | $2,346,837 |
| jose veras: Value | Runs | Wins |
| Total | 9 | 0.9 |
| 2009 Salary | $432,975 | |
| Value if:a marginal win is worth: | Value | Difference |
| $3,000,000 | $2,582,102 | $2,149,127 |
| $3,500,000 | $3,012,453 | $2,579,478 |
| $4,000,000 | $3,442,803 | $3,009,828 |
| $4,500,000 | $3,873,154 | $3,440,179 |
| $5,000,000 | $4,303,504 | $3,870,529 |
| $5,500,000 | $4,733,854 | $4,300,879 |
| $6,000,000 | $5,164,205 | $4,731,230 |
Again we're seeing the benefit of young cost-controlled players here with Bruney and Veras, as the Yankees look to have constructed a solid bullpen without overpaying. Even Marte's salary seems to be in line with his expected value.
Conclusion
In addition to the relievers covered in this post and the prior post, the Yankees have other intriguing arms in the minors, particularly Mark Melancon and David Robertson. I'll try and get a post up later looking at the players who aren't on the 25 man roster who may contribute this year. While the Yankee pen is short on name recognition, it projects well talent-wise. I thought Joe Girardi's best skill last year was managing the bullpen, and I think that will help this season too.
Tomorrow, Mo and then the team wrapup.
Comments
But ESPN and MLBN keep telling me we Joba in teh 8th?
Pena wins the UIF job. I’m kind of surprised.
Me too. I almost feel like it’s an admission that he’ll never hit enough to be a ML regular.
Maybe they want to start making defensive substitutions for Jeter? Also, except for being a bit younger, Pena doesn’t even compare well offensively to the former Attorney General.
I almost feel like it’s an admission that he’ll never hit enough to be a ML regular.
I think you’re right. If the organization had any real hopes for him, he’d play every day at a lower level.
Watched the free MLB tv online today. I have to say, it’s pretty sweet. But more sweet was AJ. I know he has all kinds of health issues (inhale + shark fin, hold, exhale), but count me in with SG et al regarding the entertainment value of seeing him work. His stuff if just wonderfully filthy. His breaking pitch was enough to make you cry.
But ESPN and MLBN keep telling me we Joba in teh 8th?
In addition to the dead horse we so dearly love to beat in Joba’s ability to provide greater value as a starter, we now might have without Joba the deepest bullpen the Yanks have had in memory. I can’t think of a supporting corps the Yanks have had better and more versatile than Bruney, Edwar, Coke, Veras, Marte and Albaladejo (assuming they’re still taking 12 pitchers, as listed on the 25-man at yankees.com). Never mind the live arms hanging around in Scranton. OF course I didn’t forget Mo. It’s just that those with one foot on earth and the other in Valhalla are beyond the commentary of us mere mortals.
But Pete Abe says they’ll regret not taking a true long-man!!!111!!
Wasn’t Coke mostly a starter up until sometime last year? Why wouldn’t he be an adequate long-man when the need arises?
Can we kill the use of “teh”? Overplayed big time, children.
9 out of 10 basement dwellers agree.
Is “teh” overplayed as much as you used the oh so Shakespearian A-Freud?
I actually think teh is underused. We should use it more.
Pena making the team is interesting on a number of levels, but I doubt that it means we’ll see defensive subs for Jeter. Pena goes down to SWB when Rodriguez comes off the DL anyway, so this move doesn’t really say anything about his future either. He should still get to play in well over 100 minor league games this year. It basically just means that they didn’t want to add Berroa to the 40 man roster at this time.
Good to see teh Don back posting again. 
What are the odds of Giese clearing waivers?
I find it hard to believe that, say, the Athletics, Mariners or Rangers couldn’t use a guy like Giese.
Next entry: Looking Ahead to 2009: Mariano Rivera
Previous entry: Looking Ahead to 2009: Jonathan Albaladejo, Phil Coke and Edwar Ramirez
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