Now, I’m just gonna say right off I don’t have “numbers” to back this up.  But this Brad Garner fella reminds me of a young kid off the farm who could do a little bit of everything, including play center field in the House That Ruth Built.  Kid who wears a World Series ring.  Kid name of Bellinger.

So he augurs the end of the curse, you mean?

I wonder if the supposed ratchet in Gardner’s per-season data means he’s harder to project.

Gardner: .400?

Think about it.

i love this thread

“Gardner: .400?”

If the Luis Sojo Grit and Determination factor is a blog-approved metric…

Yanks sign Bonds.

Clemens signed to a minor league deal.

Sterling and Waldman elope, new announcers sought by WCBS.

If my math is right - and it always is* - there’s no way Gardner has a .254 BA if he only strikes out 50 times.  I have then 491 balls in play (544AB - 50K - 3HR) and 135 hits on BIP (138H - 3HR).  That’s a .275 BABIP, for a speedster?  He’d need to have an LD% off probably around 12% (speedy players generally outperform the LD%+.120 rule of thumb), and last year was 17% in SSS.

I think a BABIP of .300 is more reasonable, which would give him 147 non-HR hits, and a .276 BA.  Assume his ISO’s are the same, and he’s now .276/.360/.356.  If he puts up an OPS in the .720 range even w/ only 20 steals (I think that is too low as well), while no one will be saying Gardner should block Jackson, I don’t know if anyone will be complaining, either.

Of course, you can make a valid argument that his K’s are too low, and if you give him 95K’s he’ll have a BABIP around .300 and the numbers are right then.  But they don’t make sense as-is.  Whether this is something that can be done to improve CAIRO, or if this is just one of the reasons the system breaks down w/ a player like Gardner I’ll let the smarter people answer.

*it isn’t always right, but a chance to quote Tony Stark in a meaningful way?

Don moves to remote island with no internet access.

I’m anticipating a BA below my senior year high school mark (.240…as a starter), and an OBP below .300 and SLG below .300.  I present these grim predictions because I HOPE to be proven WRONG.  But this really feels to me like going into 1995 and awarding Robert Eenhorn the starting SS job.

i think he’ll hit enough singles and steal enough bases to stay useful for the first half, and then i think Cameron will be in CF after the deadline. 

that’s just a prediction based on nothing though.

The best I think we can hope for is Juan Pierre like production.  Oh well, at least Gardner is cheap.

“Robert Eenhorn”

Wasn’t he the star of the Netherlands WBC team this year?

If my math is right - and it always is* - there’s no way Gardner has a .254 BA if he only strikes out 50 times.

Yeah, that looks like a transcription errror.  I’ll check later, but his K rate should be in line with the other systems.  50 is not right.

The best I think we can hope for is Juan Pierre like production.  Oh well, at least Gardner is cheap.

I really think the biggest block with Gardner isn’t necessarily that his supporters (myself and some others) think he’s going to do much better than the non-believers.  It’s that we’re not comparing him to pre-decline Bernie Williams, or Carlos Beltran.

Put another way, Juan Pierre in 2007 put up a line of of .293/.331/.353 (OPS was actually .685) with 64SB, and below average D (his arm cancelled out his range) and was 1.8 Value Wins, or roughly average.  I don’t see why Gardner can’t approximate that offense and do a little better with defense (better arm).  A lot of people here would say that’s unacceptable, even though it’s about average.  Yeah, I *think* Gardner will outhit 2007 Pierre (maybe w/ less steals, but that’s more a reflection of PT).  But I’m not expecting an OPS of .800 or anything.

It’s that we’re not comparing him to pre-decline Bernie Williams, or Carlos Beltran.

Yeah, compare him to the Melk Man and the bar’s not real high for usefulness.

Yeah, compare him to the Melk Man and the bar’s not real high for usefulness.

As Yankee fans we’re spoiled when it comes to CF.  We’ve got two no-question, inner circle HOF (Dimaggio and Mantle), two borderline (Williams and Murcer) and some All Stars (Tresh, Rivers, Henderson) in our history.  Sure, I’d like Sizemore, Granderson, or Beltran in CF.  But I’ll take average, cheap, and young since I can’t have those things.

“Henderson”

What do you call him if not an “Inner Circle” HOFer?  Or are you drawing a distinction because he played somuch of his career for other teams?

OK, Gardner’s Ks in CAIRO should be 121 in 613 PA, not 50.

What do you call him if not an “Inner Circle” HOFer?  Or are you drawing a distinction because he played somuch of his career for other teams?

Yeah, that and the fact that the only place he played a lot of games in CF was for the Yankees; he’s a HOF LF.  He really only had two years where he was the full-time starting CF for the Yankees, 1985 and 1986.

OK, Gardner’s Ks in CAIRO should be 121 in 613 PA, not 50.

Yikes!  I’ll still take the under on that.  If nothing else, he’s not going to get 600 PA if he’s striking out that much.  Unless he morphs into a 20/20 player IWC this is all moot.

Pierre’s not a good comp for Gardner.  Pierre could hit for a high average because he struck out rarely.  Lots of BIP means a reasonable BA even without a particularly high BABIP.  Gardner will need to translate his minor league patience to the bigs and/or cut down on his minor league K rate.  He may put up a line superficially similar to Pierre v.2007, but it won’t have remotely the same shape.

Joba pleads guilty to DUI today, gets probation.