I think that if the injury and subsequent surgery have any significant effect, the impact would more likely be on his defense rather than his offense because he should have improved range of motion and flexibility than he had for much of last season (Kevin Long has said that by June or July he “could not fully turn his waist and clear his hips” which prevented him from being able “to catch up to 95, 96 mile-an-hour pitches”), but he may be reticent to dive for balls at the limits of his range.

Just one note about his value vs. salary.  I believe ARod’s contract is fairly unique in that it is front-loaded.  Whereas most long-term contracts are structured such that teams are under-paying in the first few years and over-paying in the last few, ARod’s will actually be the reverse (hopefully).

Don’t the milestone bonuses counterbalance the front-loading of the salary?  Depending on when he reaches those milestones, of course.

Assuming he ties Mays in 2012, he’ll get $35M instead of $29M.

If he ties Ruth in 2014, $25M becomes $31M.

Catching Aaron in 2016 means $26M instead of $20M.

Matching and surpassing the mark of the beast (assuming that it’s still the record by then), would be worth another $12M in bonuses.  If he averages 30 HR per season, those things would happen in 2016 as well.  So he could pull down a nifty $38M that year.

Obviously, the “marketing agreement” that pays him those bonuses was written into the deal because the Yankees figure to recoup that much and more from those events, but you still have to figure that Rodriguez is likely to be massively overpaid in terms of on-the-field value in most of the latter years of this contract.  But as with Jeter, I really don’t give a crap because I just don’t see it preventing the Yankees from fielding contending teams during that time frame.

Just one note about his value vs. salary.  I believe ARod’s contract is fairly unique in that it is front-loaded.  Whereas most long-term contracts are structured such that teams are under-paying in the first few years and over-paying in the last few, ARod’s will actually be the reverse (hopefully).

It’s even more odd than that.  If he gets his extra $30M in bonuses there will be huge spikes in the middle of the contract.  Of course if he gets his extra $30M in bonuses clauses he will be worth his contract due to the extra revenue (steroids or not).  If he plays at a level where he doesn’t get his extra $30M in bonuses then he is a real money pit no matter what 8 years of inflation will do to MLB contract values.

Speaking of inflation justifying the back end of contracts (which is why I assume a lot of them are back loaded), how nice would Carlos Beltran at $16M/year look right about now?  I knew when it happened that the decision was going to haunt us for a long time.

If you let Arod play short, then that top ten list, minus Teixiera, makes a team. You have to think the odds are against that.  That team would probably be a good team, not that it would beat Japan or anything.

http://weblogs.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/blog/2009/03/jeter_to_bat_first_in_new_look.html

Jeter to bat leadoff, Damon in the 2 hole.

That team would probably be a good team, not that it would beat Japan or anything.

Well, Pujols and Ortiz would play for the DR and Beltran would play for Puerto Rico.  And who knows which team Rodriguez would pick?  Or is the next WBC going to be Japan vs the world?

sd2528,

I just saw that too.  I’ve been saying they should do that for years (even though I realize the maximum gain is probably a handful of runs).  I love that they’re willing to try it.

how nice would Carlos Beltran at $16M/year look right about now?

Beltran is about to turn 33, and is owed $18.5M per season for the next three years.  I’m not predicting a cliff-dive or anything, but he probably projects to be worth almost exactly what he’s going to be paid for 2009-2011.  We’ve already missed the really sweet part of that deal.

Jeter to bat leadoff, Damon in the 2 hole.

So does this mean that now Damon will bunt every time Jeter reaches first?

Beltran is about to turn 33, and is owed $18.5M per season for the next three years.  I’m not predicting a cliff-dive or anything, but he probably projects to be worth almost exactly what he’s going to be paid for 2009-2011.  We’ve already missed the really sweet part of that deal.

Beltran was willing to sign with the Yankees for a year less and $1M under the AAV he signed for with the Mets.  So he would only be signed for 2 more years at $16M/year.  If they pulled the trigger when he came to them (like they did with Teix) they would have had a sweet deal for the first 4 years and the back of the contract wouldn’t look as “bad” either.  In fact, the back end of the deal would still be in their favor.

As it is now, they should only lose about one game if Rodriguez can come back by May 1.

Sign me up for 25-1!

I’m irrationally optimistic about the start of the season. I think Sabathia, Wang, and Burnett will keep the team in a ton of games that were blowouts at the beginning of last season.

I thought I remembered Jeter not hitting as well as the leadoff guy, but he’s eerily similar…

Batting 1st: 2132 PA, .315/.389/.471
Batting 2nd: 5766 PA, .316/.386/.459

“I thought I remembered Jeter not hitting as well as the leadoff guy”

By which I mean, I thought he did better when he batted 2nd as opposed to when he batted leadoff.

Jeter to bat leadoff, Damon in the 2 hole.

So does this mean that now Damon will bunt every time Jeter reaches first?

Here’s the pitch . . .  and it’s grounded up the middle . . .  past a diving Damon!

I’m irrationally optimistic about the start of the season.

I’m rationally optimistic that they can win 12-15 games in April (assuming they play all 22), and get ARod back at the beginning of May.  That should put them anywhere between “in the hunt” and first place.

In other news, it looks like it’s official.  CC gets two openings.

Jokes aside, I’m impressed that Girardi would go against CW this way (the Jeter/Damon flip-flop).  Even though I believe it will make no difference to the team’s chances, it just bodes well.

yankz,

I remember a number of years ago when Jeter was the Yankees leadoff man and a common meme was that the team need a “real” leadoff hitter so that Jeter “could go back to what he’s best suited for: hitting 2nd.”  I used to bring up the fact that Jeter actually had superior stats hitting 1st.  The reality, I expect, is that the difference is simply random fluctuation, as he is the same hitter either way (much like his playoff stats are basically identical to his career regular season stats).

Beltran was willing to sign with the Yankees for a year less and $1M under the AAV he signed for with the Mets.

That’s not the way I remember it.  I’m pretty sure it was a year less or a lower AAV, not both.

If they pulled the trigger when he came to them (like they did with Teix) they would have had a sweet deal for the first 4 years and the back of the contract wouldn’t look as “bad” either.

This “if” ignores the reality that we don’t actually know for certain what he’d have taken from the Yankees, as well as the fact that his performance in the first year of the contract wasn’t very sweet at all.  Also, Teixeira didn’t take less to play in NY like Beltran was supposedly willing to, he just gave the Yanks a chance to beat the best offer he had on the table (and they did, by a fair bit).

Damon is also less likely to hit into 200 double plays if Jeter gets on to start the inning.

Jokes aside, I’m impressed that Girardi would go against CW this way (the Jeter/Damon flip-flop).  Even though I believe it will make no difference to the team’s chances, it just bodes well.

agreed.  without reading TOO much into this, i actually think this little move says quite a bit.

in my mind, all of the reasons being given are political.  that it happened b/c Posada was leading off, b/c it allows them to hit and run more with Damon pulling the ball through the hole, because it allows them to go LRL if Gardner is batting 9th, etc.

to me, this is all about Jeter’s spike in double plays over the last 2 years.  Jeter is grounding into DPs at a pretty high rate the last 2 years.  Damon rarely grounds into DPs (obviously some of this is b/c he hits leadoff).  this isn’t going to stop Jeter from GDP later in the game, but it fixes the “problem” in the first inning (15 DPs in 96 opportunities from 2007-2008).

if you really want to go overboard, you could read a little into how Jeter is going to be treated at the end of his contract.  if this move is Girardi’s way of saying that Jeter is slowing down, it *could* portend that Girardi and the FO are not going to shy away from moving him off SS….

or, it could mean nothing.  but that’s my take.

Damon is also less likely to hit into 200 double plays if Jeter gets on to start the inning.
...
Damon rarely grounds into DPs (obviously some of this is b/c he hits leadoff).

Good article on HBT about avoiding the double-play.  Damon is the SEVENTH best (since 1953) player in avoiding double-plays, for his career.  He’s also 8th best over the last 3 years, so it’s not like he’s slowing down much.

I don’t know what Girardi’s thinking is.  I like that - in this case at least - he isn’t beholden to common-wisdom.  There’s no way Torre would have done this.  Not sure what it portends for the future.  If they had moved Jeter to 7th or 8th I’d be more likely to want to speculate.

If they had moved Jeter to 7th or 8th I’d be more likely to want to speculate.

Only do that in the playoffs if he’s in the middle of a funk.

That’s not the way I remember it.  I’m pretty sure it was a year less or a lower AAV, not both.

“A quick rehash: Scott Boras, Beltrán’s agent, gave the Yankees one final shot at signing him and snatching him from the Mets’ grasp by proposing a six-year, $100 million contract — that’s for one year shorter and $19 million poorer than the Mets’ offer. The Yankees, having already added Carl Pavano and Randy Johnson, resisted.” - Link

his performance in the first year of the contract wasn’t very sweet at all.

True, but the first year isn’t bad enough to change my mind. 

Also, Teixeira didn’t take less to play in NY like Beltran was supposedly willing to, he just gave the Yanks a chance to beat the best offer he had on the table (and they did, by a fair bit).

The way I understand it is Teix wanted to be a Yankee and asked them for their best offer.  When they beat everyone else it became a no brainer for him but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a discount price he was willing to accept.  We just don’t know.  Regardless, the point was that, similar to Teix, the Yankees weren’t in it and Beltran came to them.

not to nitpick, but that’s only $334K less AAV, not $1M.

still, i agree that passing on Beltran was a terrible decision.  i have faith though the the barriers to making the right decision in that offseason have since been removed.

i would use this offseason as a comparison.

Manny:Randy Johnson::Teixeira:Beltran

the analogy works in terms of relative ages, relative contract lengths, and the Hank/George “lust factor”...if Hank were in charge, i don’t think he could resist sticking it to Boston to sign Manny, long term consequences and defense be damned.

Manny:Randy Johnson::Teixeira:Beltran

yeah, i screwed that up.

Manny:Teixeira::Randy Johnson:Beltran

not to nitpick, but that’s only $334K less AAV, not $1M.

Yup.  It appears I misremembered it as being a bigger discount.  My bad.

Anyway, I wasn’t trying to start an argument, and I’m not trying to start one now.  But the “fact” is that “rehash” in the blurb you linked is just a rehash of speculation.  I’ve never seen a direct quote from Boras that says he told Cashman that Beltran would sign for x dollars over y years.  There’s nothing wrong with speculation, of course, but I’m just saying that I tend to be a good deal more skeptical than most on the details of these sorts of things.  Because even if there is a very sound basis for the underlying premise, the details are always subject to exaggeration.

So these things have a way of morphing over time.  If Beltran had tanked or gotten hurt, people would be saying that they sure are glad the Yankees didn’t pay him whatever it would have taken to pry him away from the Mets.  This works with trade rumors, too.  If the Yankees dump Cabrera for low-level minor leaguers to free up a 40-man roster spot, people will immediately start pissing and moaning about how we should have traded him for Cameron when the Brewers were willing to pay half of his salary, even though a big reason that the trade never got made is that the Brewers were never willing to pay any of his salary.  (Whether they should have been willing to pay any of his salary being an entirely separate issue, of course.)

Good article on HBT about avoiding the double-play.  Damon is the SEVENTH best (since 1953) player in avoiding double-plays, for his career.  He’s also 8th best over the last 3 years, so it’s not like he’s slowing down much.

Out of curiosity, how many righthanded hitters among the leaders in avoiding the DP?

OK, reading the article and answering my own question, Joe Carter is the only righty batter in the top 20 list.  There are 18 lefties and one switch-hitter, who happens to be a guy who was generally regarded as one of the fastest men to ever play the game until his fifth or sixth knee injury.  The rally-killer list is all righties except for one switch-hitting catcher.

Out of curiosity, how many righthanded hitters among the leaders in avoiding the DP?

You should read the article (parts 1 and 2, I linked part 2).  I’m not trying to be snarky or anything, but he did go into a discussion on the whole righty-lefty thing, as well as a number of the other “common wisdom” things vs. what he actually found.  e.g. while Damon (speedy) was 8th in the last three years, Giambi as 7th, and Howard was 9th.  I think you’ll find it interesting.

However, since I’m a nice guy (re: I’m getting ready to go home for the day)...all of the top 10 from 2006-2008 are lefties.  All time (since 1953) you have 1 switch-hitter (Mickey Mantle at #4) and one righty (Joe Carter at #10) in the top 20.  Best I can see John Walsh didn’t publish the full spreadsheet/database.

I see I took too long to type my response.  I was busy verifying a few of the players were strictly left-handed…

If Jeter and Damon flip spots, that would open up the possibility of my dream lineup where A-Rod bats in FRONT of Teix.

One of the best things about getting Teix to me, at the time, was the notion that A-Rod would finally get real protection, and then the lineup comes out that Teix is the one who is going to get the protection from A-Rod, so while yeah, we certainly get the benefit of Teix getting protection (and hopefully doing a lot with it), we still go right back to A-Rod getting garbage because the pitcher does not fear facing Matsui with a man on and A-Rod trying to do too much with the garbage he’s seeing. I’d love to see A-Rod in a position where a walk is SEEN as a good thing (we know it IS a good thing, but the perception is different than the reality).

ARod’s contract is awful- especially the HR bonus’- and I choose to blame Randy Levine for that because he’s a fat idiot.  ARod is overpaid even based on his admittedly outstanding on-field performance but even more overpaid when you consider the damage that this clown is doing to the brand.  I mean, he is a joke and even his supporters cringe at his recent choices.  Furthermore, the value of a marginal win is likely closer to $3M than $6M based on the distressed US and especially NYC economy.  Why do you think The Yankees are desperately, pathetically begging people to buy $350 field level seats?  Bad contract, bad vibe- I hope ARod man’s up and somehow gets less lame.

“protection”

My understanding is that there’s no such thing (maybe assuming one uses modern metrics).

“Protection is a myth.”

—John Lennon

I don’t think protection is generally much of an issue, but I think there are exceptions when you put two extremely high level batters together, like an Ortiz/Manny, Maris/Mantle, etc (and I’d put A-Rod/Teix in that category).

I guess it’s:

Jeter (r)
Damon (l)
Teixeira (s)
Matsui (l)
Posada (s)
Nady (r) or Swisher (s)
Cano (l)
Ransom (r)
Gardner (l)

so when Rodriguez comes back, he can bat either third or fourth without creating a bunched up handedness situation.  You can flip Nady/Swisher and Cano to break up the lefties at the bottom.

Interesting to know that Joe Torre was so bad about hitting into DPs.  I wonder if that influenced his thinking about Jeter…in other words, “I hit into a bunch of DPs, and I was a hell of a hitter, so it’s not so bad.  No reason to bat him first.” 

Kind of in the same way that it’s sometimes said that good hitters/pitchers make bad coaches because they only know how to do what they do—not how to help someone with a different approach. 

What’s that anecdote in “Ball 4”?  Somebody asks, maybe, Steve Carlton how he throws his slider.  Carlton picks up a ball and says “You hold it like this and then you throw the shit out of it.”

I choose to blame Randy Levine for that because he’s a fat idiot.

I also hate fat idiots in general and Randy Levine in particular.  Can I blame him for AIG and global warming, too?

Has there been any analysis to suggest how much mixing up the lineup helps (or how much NOT mixing it up hurts)?

“Can I blame him for AIG and global warming, too?”

Not fair to blame anyone for AIG except Obama and FDR.  As for global warming, if it exists (which it does not), it is caused by Al Gore and Barbara Streisand flying too much.

Has there been any analysis to suggest how much mixing up the lineup helps (or how much NOT mixing it up hurts)?

Yeah, there’s been analysis on the subject. I believe the conclusions are that, for the most part, the benefit/loss is minimal.

Has there been any analysis to suggest how much mixing up the lineup helps (or how much NOT mixing it up hurts)?

Good question.  I’ll take a crack at answering it with some simulations.

Thanks SG!  How would you approach it—“optimal” mixed lineup vs. a random lineup?  or vs. a lineup deliberately slanted to be all L then all R?

How would you approach it—“optimal” mixed lineup vs. a random lineup?  or vs. a lineup deliberately slanted to be all L then all R?

I’ll run two sets of simulations, turning off injuries and playing everyone 100% of the time.

<u>Lineup 1:</u>
Jeter, SS (R)
Damon, lf (L)
Teixeira, 1B (S)
Rodriguez, 3B (R)
Matsui, DH (L)
Posada, C (S)
Cano, 2B (L)
Nady, RF (R)
Gardner, CF, (L)

<u>Lineup 2</u>
Damon, lf (L)
Jeter, SS (R)
Rodriguez, 3B (R)
Nady, RF (R)
Teixeira, 1B (S)
Posada, C (S)
Matsui, DH (L)
Cano, 2B (L)
Gardner, CF, (L)

I think they’ll score around the same amount of runs, but I’ll be interested to see if their win totals change based on leveraging of the platoon advantage in late innings.

“I’ll run two sets of simulations”

I take it the simulations have strategy built in - strategy not tuned for alternating lineups?  If it’s possible, you should definitely count the L-L (and etc., though I don’t care) matchups in the two scenarios.

Not fair to blame anyone for AIG except Obama and FDR.  As for global warming, if it exists (which it does not), it is caused by Al Gore and Barbara Streisand flying too much.

But only one of those four is fat.  Now that I think about it though, I haven’t seen much of Streisand lately, so maybe she’s let herself go.  Perhaps in a show of solidarity with big Al.

FDR might have been a secret fatty.  After all he just sat on his ass all the time.

FDR was a lazy liberal who was lucky enough to be President at the end of the Depression and during WWII.  The country came out of those things in spite of him.  He totally Forrest Gumped it.  And he had polio, which makes him a moral degenerate.

I bet in 1939 or so a lot of people were thinking: “I hope [F-Ros] man’s [sic] up and somehow gets less lame”.

Less lame, huh Froggie?  You’re going straight to hell for that one.

What, the “sat on his ass” crack wasn’t hellworthy?

Do I have to wait in line with everybody else?

it ain’t coca-cola, it’s rice.

I think you’re all Cinderstown bound.

“man’s [sic]”

For a moment there I thought you meant he needed “men”.

“Do I have to wait in line with everybody else?”

You’re the throw before the toss.  La la la la la la oss.  Wait, what was the question?

It was, in case this isn’t obvious, a citation of [35].

Oh, yeah.  You’re at least behind Mr. Omelas here.

I always, always love it when Eddie Murphy, the Clash, and Ursula K. LeGuinn wind up in the same virtual conversation.

Hell bound indeed. At least we’ll have few good bands there. Yup -  Nice Clash twist off of MC. Shitty album,great band.
Frog, I feel like a dunce. Where is the Eddie Murphy ref?

It was mine, Thurm.  From “The Pope and Ronald Reagan”  off his first album.  He says something about how the guy who shot the Pope wanted to go to hell and didn’t want to wait in line with everybody else.

Whats an album?

Those things I keep picking up off the street.

Good answer. Love the F-Rose hate. Its about time he gets his comeuppance.
Winny and Joey Steelz did all the heavy lifting.

Spring training but we’re in mid-season form this evening.  Skip must be pleased.

“I always, always love it when Eddie Murphy, the Clash, and Ursula K. LeGuinn wind up in the same virtual conversation.”

You missed Dio.  Or maybe that was intentional.

Oh damn (ahem). 

And I had that album (ahem) too.  I guess I didn’t. . . know for the first time/If we’re evil or divine.

You’re saying you were in the dark?  Like a [green] rainbow in the dark?

In the dark, you will fuss and fight/In the dark you will get no life.

G’night, all.

Dream furiously.

Dio has rocked for a long, long time.  but now it’s time for him to pass the torch.

I don’t believe in protection in the grand scheme of things, but I do believe that if A-ROd believes that the guys after him are capable of getting the job done, he might not feel the weight of the world on his shoulders to hit an eleven run homer in high leverage sitchs and therefore might chill out a tad in those ABs and be even more productive than he tends to be already.