Betemit splits, as presented (emphasis mine):
Vs RHP: .268/.347/.464 in 800 PA
Vs LHP: .232/.281/.634 in 227 PA

Can I assume that you accidentally put Betemit’s LHP OPS where his slugging should be? Otherwise I can’t make sense of these numbers and the ensuing OPS discussion doesn’t jive.

*quickly checks ESPN’s splits*

Yes, this appears to be what has happened.

I was looking over Lane’s numbers earlier in the week.  He really doesn’t have a shot.  I’d like to see more of Ensberg this spring to get a handle on what he can contribute.

And, of course, by “jive” what I really meant was “jibe.”

Perhaps I am too easily amused, but the idea of trademarking the Wil Nieves Experience had me giggling like a madwoman at work.

Ensberg has seen fairly regular playing time if I’m not mistaken and has shown some pop.  A bench of Betemit, Ensberg, Molina and Duncan would really be a strength - although it would leave the team a bit short in terms of having a speedy pinch runner type.  On the other hand, when teams bring in a lefty in the late innings to face, say, Abreu, countering with Duncan or Ensberg would certainly give Girardi some good options.

Can I assume that you accidentally put Betemit’s LHP OPS where his slugging should be?

Good catch, I’ll fix it.

What are you base-lining Duncan’s numbers against?  As a DH, RF, etc.  Probably wouldn’t change the numbers much anyway given his expected playing time, but I’m just curious.  I’ve got to think that an average offensive RF on the bench is a plus.

As to which four I would take…I think you’ve nailed it exactly.  I can see Cervelli being in the discussion for a backup C next year, but not his.  Ditto for Gonzalez as a backup infielder.  It would be nice if they could carry only 11 pitchers, but I think until they figure out what they’re going to be able to get from what they have, it makes sense to have the extra pitcher.  If everything goes well maybe they can drop down to 11 pitchers sometime in May, and carry either Gardner or Gonzalez for the pinch-runner/extra defensive replacement.

What are you base-lining Duncan’s numbers against?  As a DH, RF, etc.

1B.

It would be nice if they could carry only 11 pitchers, but I think until they figure out what they’re going to be able to get from what they have, it makes sense to have the extra pitcher.

I think with the young pitchers carrying 12 to soak up the extra innings makes sense.  Hopefully Girardi is more willing to use them than his predecessor.

“Can I assume that you accidentally put Betemit’s LHP OPS where his slugging should be?

Good catch, I’ll fix it.”

Damn.

All the coverage seems to agree that Girardi, & the NYY in general, are very impressed with Duncan both offensively and defensively.  Subjectively, from what I’ve seen and heard (including the recent spot on FAN), it’s hard not to root for him.  It looks like he’s close to a lock, too, which makes SG’s projection almost a lock.
SG (or anyone else): is a late-inning speedster the advantage it seems in a close game, or am I just tortured with visions of Dave Roberts?  The idea of eventually going down to 11 pitchers and adding Gardner seems attractive (except that you probably end up paying for it in pitchers’ minor league options, right?)... how much is it really worth?

I agree with your picks SG, and that would probably be the best bench the Yankees had in AGES.

as for pinch runners, it’s nice and all, but in the course of the regular season it’s pretty worthless if said runner is a bad hitter.

in the regular season you MUCH rather have guys that won’t waste 5PA a game if they’re given a start to rest a starter.

and yes they probably will and should carry 12 pitcher for 2 reason

1. the kids and oldies…. a lot of your guys are unlikely to go too deep in the game.

2. the on going bullpen trial out. let’s face it, we’re NOT going to figure out who REALLY is the best bullpen option in ST until we actually throw them in a real game. might as well carry more guys to throw around and see who works out.

I really think the team needs 12 pitchers.  Given that, in order to carry a pinch runner, you have to dump one of Ensberg/Duncan.  If Ensberg proves that his injuries have rendered him useless, or if Duncan proves that he really is just a AAA player who got hot for a couple of months, fine, bring up Gardner.  But to start the season, I want the guys SG listed for the bench.

is a late-inning speedster the advantage it seems in a close game, or am I just tortured with visions of Dave Roberts?

It’s probably not worth it over a full season, but it is a tactical advantage that can be important in a close game with post-season implications or in the post-season itself.  If Giambi or Posada doubles in a tie game in the late innings, it’d be nice to have the option to pinch run for them if needed. 

I’m not sure how to quantify it, exactly.  Maybe something like Giambi has a 50% chance to score from second on a single whereas pinch runner deluxe has a 90% chance to score?  So that could increase your odds of winning the game by 40%.

It will be interesting to see whether or not Girardi lets Giambi remain in the game at 1B in close and late situations. I’m skeptical that he will reflexively pull him for a pinch runner in the 7th inning of a one run or tied game like the previous manager did. If he does let him remain in the game, the need for a pinch runner would be even more attenuated, at least until the playoffs, unless Matsui’s knee continues to be an issue.

well you could do a basic matter and just looking at how many run a good runner typically can create over a season (say use Dave Roberts over the last few year) and take a educated guess of how many times a pinch runner can be used in a season and compare that to a porportion.

I’m not going to look that much. but lets just put it this way, in the mid 70s the A’s signed a guy name Herb Washington as a PURE pinch runner. Washington was a world class track and field star. and he only lasted a little more then a season in the bigs.

I’d definately agree that in a playoff game a great base stealing threat on the bench is a HUGE asset. but in the course of the regular season you can’t possibly waste a roster space purely for that purpose, if that guy doesn’t also bring very significantly value eslewhere then carrying a guy that won’t waste 5PA if given a start is much more valuable.

remember , over the course of a normal season, your very very likely to give something like 900PA give or take a 100 to guys outside of your original starting 9. that’s a TON of PAs it’s quiet obvious to think that a guy who can hit like Wilson Betemit in the course of 300 PA ‘s value difference to ... say a Miguel Cario can’t be made up by base running unless Cairo steal like 50 bags during that span . Cairo is actually a pretty damn good runner. and the Yankees released him for Betemit should just about sum up the value of a pinch runner in the regular season.
in the playoffs however, since your not going to carry the 5th starter and don’t REALLY need that many pitchers. carrying a pinch runner or 2 makes a ton of sense.

I agree that 12 pitchers and Betemit-Ensberg-Molina-Duncan makes sense to start the season.  As the pitching shakes out, perhaps then a pitcher can be dropped for Gardner or Gonzalez.  I’d personally like to see Gardner on the team at some point just because he sounds like an exciting player to watch.  But also important to remember about the “pinch runner” role, Betemit can certainly run a little, and can be expected to do a lot of pinch running/defensive replacementing for whomever is playing first base, especially Giambi.  Beyond that, it should also be remembered that given the current configuration of the team, players like Damon, Melky, and Abreu all figure to get regular days off, so on those days they’d make fine pinch runners.

Gardner probably needs at least another half season in AAA, especially as he’s only 24 and needs to play every day and get regular at bats.  As I’ve said earlier, Justin Christian basically has the same skill set as Gardner and is soon to be 28 so he would make more sense if the Yanks need that type of guy in 2008.

As for Wilson Betemit, he has five career stolen bases.  Although he’s certainly faster than Giambi or Posada, he’s not the guy if the Yanks need to steal a base late in a game.

In any case, I agree that over the course of a long season, it’s better to have a guys who can actually hit like Ensberg or Shelley Duncan than a pinch runner type.

Boy, I hope I didn’t start this conversation!  I think if everything shakes out well, the Yankees could be at 11 pitchers later this year, maybe as early as late May.  I think they DO need 12 now, but I’m the optimistic sort, who is hoping that everyone pitches so well that the seventh pitcher in the pen is superfluous.  Unlikely to happen, but that 98 team worked out pretty well.

IF the Yankees can take a 5th person on the bench, then I would want Gardner (or Christian) or Gonzalez on the bench.  The pinch-running would be nice, and there really isn’t a “late inning defensive replacement” many places right now, except maybe 1B.  Also, it may be nice to see what the youngsters could do to get a preview of next year.

Betemit, Duncan, Ensberg, and Molina is definitely the best bench to start with, but it would be nice if they could add another player with a different skill-set.

sure, I definately agree that if something shakes out and we could either open a space viva shaking out 1 pitcher or one of the regulars are hurt I’d definately go with either Gonzalez or Gardner / Christian .

of course a lot could change in the course of the season… let say if Giambi’s sudden agil looking nimbleness turn out to break down his 38 year old ex-roiding body as a lot of us would fear by mid May.. and Eric Duncan suddenly remembers how to hit again or Juan Miranda is putting some crooked #.... do you call them up?

A pinch runner would be nice but you need to remember you’re burning 2 players unless the pinch runner takes over the position for who he replaced, leaving a 2 man bench with one being the catcher.

“we can estimate his true talent OPS against lefties to be somewhere in the range of .485 - .783”

SG, you rock.

SG,

I agree with your logical choices for the Yankee bench.  One thing you failed to mention, Molina 3 of the last 4 years has hit lefties very well.  Last year the Yankees played 39 games against lefty starters so playing Molina against them whenever possible could work out very well.  If Posada dh’s with Molina catching the Yankees could put a lineup out with 7 right handed bats with Cano and Damon/Matsui as the lone lefty bats.

if that guy doesn’t also bring very significantly value eslewhere then carrying a guy that won’t waste 5PA if given a start is much more valuable.

The worst hitter you can find only wastes four of those five PA, and a guy who makes your roster primarily to play defense and pinch run is going to get pinch hit for in close and late situations when he starts anyway.

remember , over the course of a normal season, your very very likely to give something like 900PA give or take a 100 to guys outside of your original starting 9.

And how many of those PA go to your original bench?  More than half of the position players the Yankees used last season spent some time either in the minors or in other organizations.  Same goes for the pitchers.  The roster isn’t set in stone on opening day.

The Yankees are going to carry 12 pitchers because that’s what everybody does these days.  But that doesn’t make it smart or necessary.  Of course, back when I was a kid and ten pitchers was the rule, most teams carried three catchers, which wasn’t exactly smart or necessary either.