If you don’t like Cano, you hate freedom.

and puppies.

he’s probably the second-best second baseman in baseball.

Cano’s probably not even the best second baseman in the AL East… I heard the Red Sox have a second baseman who could bring world peace, end starvation, inspired the term “Man-crush” and can will World Series championship for his team because he plays the game the “right way.”

I wish we had that guy instead…

If Cano doesn’t hit his 65% projection, the terrorists have won.

Pedroia is a baby.  Threw a hissy over a hard slide from A-Rod.  WAAA!

I don’t consider Pedoria a second baseman.  I consider him an entire infield.

I consider him an entire infield.

Underestimate the Global Baseball Icon’s mad skillz at your own peril, Yankees fanboy. It’ll be on your head when he goes out and hits 648 HRs this year and records all the outs for the Red Sox this year… all unassisted!

I’m changing my mind on Pedroia.  He sounds pretty good.

I’d definitely have to agree that Cano will at least hit his 65%, because these projections seem particularly pessimistic.  Cano beat his projected OPS by .006 last year.  I know when you regress to the mean, you are regressing towards every other player (sort of), but…if a player entering his prime beats his projection for 2007, why would he be projected to do worse for 2008?

Projected 2007 OPS: .834
Projected 2008 OPS: .830

I know any projection system is imperfect, but it just seems…odd.

.006 = .007.  Fuzzy math.

Projections regress batting average more than other components in most cases, which probably affects Cano more than the typical player.  I don’t think anyone would be surprised to see Cano outperform those projections.

Hey SG, I’m not sure how those % differences are working.  You have Cano with more actual PAs than the projection, which is a +19%, but more HRs than the projection, which is -2%.  And SB is the same actual/projected but you have a -10% difference.

Yeah, I should have clarified that.  Everything but PA and AB is based on the rate. So Cano had a 4% worse hit percentage on a rate basis than projected, hit 123% more 3B than projected on a rate basis, walked 26% more frequently than projected on a rate basis, etc.,

If you don’t like Cano, you hate freedom.

If Cano has to become a 1Bman, the terrorists have won.

A subplot to Cano’s career, having noticed his talent since he was in AA, is that he keeps proving the doubters wrong, both offensively and defensively. I think his plate discipline is about to spike a bit.

I too think he will continue to improve.  I saw the improvement in plate discipline/strike zone control last year, and the numbers reflect it.  He’s not exactly Abreu up there, and never will be.  But he’s definitely learned some things.  I saw intelligent PAs from him last season, especially late in the year.

Also, Cano is one of the few Yankees who has hit well in every post-season.  Some time in the future, given the team’s improved pitching, this guy is going to make a name for himself in October.

I think his plate discipline is about to spike a bit.

I think it is very reasonable - and would make is very happy - if he improved a similar amount as last year.  So put him in the 50-60 walk area (assuming a similar number of PA as last year).  W/o checking, I would guess that would make him pretty much average as far as discipline.  With everything else he does well, that may put him in the MVP debate.

Projections regress batting average more than other components in most cases, which probably affects Cano more than the typical player

I would have thought that as well, except the projections have him with a HIGHER BA than his actual from last year, and not significantly lower than the projection.  The biggest thing I would have expected to IMPROVE would be his IsoP, but that stays essentially flat (projected .173/.174), and also worse than what he actually did the last two years.  Which is why it seems odd to me.

I’ll freely admit that I don’t fully understand the projection-systems, and I understand all are generally conservative, I just can’t understand why Cano isn’t projected to be better than last year, if only a little.

I think Cano’s low walk rate doesn’t necessarily translate to poor plate discipline.  In a lineup full of mashers, I think a pitcher is going to be inclined to try to get through Cano, a bottom-of-the-order guy with fewer pitches, by challenging him with more pitches in the strike zone.

In addition to the increased walk rate, some other positive trends: Increase of P/PA - 3.1 to 3.2 to 3.4 (this obviously coincides with his move towards the top of the lineup), slight uptick in FB% (from 28 to 30%) as his power develops, under 5% of his flyballs last year were of the pop-up variety (down from 12% in 2006).

I think Cano has come to replace Mariano as the Yankee I most enjoy watching on a daily basis.  Joba will probably be threatening that status soon, though.

I think Cano’s low walk rate doesn’t necessarily translate to poor plate discipline.

True, but he still swings at some bad pitches more frequently than I’d like to see.

Defensively speaking, Cano is certainly the Yankee I most enjoy watching on a daily basis.  Also, on those days when I’m condemned to listen to John Sterling, my heart rejoices every time he says, “hit up the middle, grabbed by Cano, the throw to first, one away.”

Wow, those 2007 projections versus reality sure look good, don’t they?  Thanks for putting that stuff in.

Follwed right up by….. hit up the middle.. paaaaast a diving Jeter!

Anyway SG, can you post that baesrunning calculation for the whole team? Cano strikes me as a poor jump guy but rounds the bases well.

I think he’s due to have a monster year sometime in the next few season too. and he’s very very fun to watch.