You point out that Lane, Woodward, etc. may not get any playing time.  However, it is likely that SOMEONE will get those PA’s other than the starters and top 4 position players.  I would imagine that if you were to give those extra PA’s to Gonzalez or Gardner, or substitute pretty much any other player in the Yankees’ org. instead, you’d get a similar number.  Needless to say, the Yankees don’t need more offense!

And, I don’t think the defense costing you a win is actually all that bad.  If the Yankees miss the playoffs by one win we’ll be bemoaning the defense, however, I would think one win would be well within a normal range of an average team.

I would imagine that if you were to give those extra PA’s to Gonzalez or Gardner, or substitute pretty much any other player in the Yankees’ org. instead, you’d get a similar number.

Yep, there are probably people who aren’t even in the organization who will get some of the playing time.  I’ve just uploaded a spreadsheet for anyone who wants to tweak the playing time to their own preferences.

Wow, I didn’t realize Jeter was so mediocre on the bases. I must have missed that when you did Jeter individually. Damon’s BGAA is really something also.. I think someone said he’s in the top 5 in the AL on the bases? Is that right?

Jeter’s normally around +5 runs on the bases on average, but he was hurt last year which impacted him.

Damon was top three last year.

According to David Pinto, the Yankees had one of the best defenses in all of baseball last year.  I know that defense is tough to measure, but I take some solace in that fact.

“The sigma on a team’s runs scored in a season is around 30”

That’s just the counting uncertainty on 900 = 30**2 though, isn’t it?  Shouldn’t one have to add in in quadrature the _systematic_ uncertainty representing true fluctuations in player value (something one would estimate from saying it’s a component in fluctuations around projections I guess, or from intersample variation)?

david price is the real mothatruckin deal.

he looks like he’s doling out lashes up there.

He looked rather good, I agree.  Speaking of which, Mussina appeared to be a real major league pitcher out there as well, striking out five with a nifty curve.  The Yanks will be in great shape if he can provide 160 league average innings or better.

You point out that Lane, Woodward, etc. may not get any playing time.  However, it is likely that SOMEONE will get those PA’s other than the starters and top 4 position players.  I would imagine that if you were to give those extra PA’s to Gonzalez or Gardner, or substitute pretty much any other player in the Yankees’ org. instead, you’d get a similar number.  Needless to say, the Yankees don’t need more offense!

There seems to be a lot of enthusiasm for Duncan, and he has not hurt his case so far this spring.  If he keeps it up he will get his share of those PA’s.

That’s just the counting uncertainty on 900 = 30**2 though, isn’t it?

Yeah, you’re right.  I was going off my memory which is never a good idea.  The average standard deviation for all teams in runs scored/allowed is closer to 45 in my simulations.  I suppose that we can use that to deal with the possible variance in individual projections, which makes the Yankees an 893- 983 team 66% of the time.

Shouldn’t one have to add in in quadrature the _systematic_ uncertainty representing true fluctuations in player value (something one would estimate from saying it’s a component in fluctuations around projections I guess, or from intersample variation)?

If we wanted to be more accurate, yes.  But then we start getting into not just performance projection variance but playing time projection variance and officially out of my league mathematically.  If we hold playing time constant, the lower end is around 845 runs, the upper end is around 1083 runs.

For the purpose of this I’m taking the lazy way out and assuming that the projections are an accurate assessment of the true talent of the team, which we don’t really know.

Another ST hit for Shelley Duncan. He also made a nice play on a ball to his right at 1B in the top of the 1st.

Hughes looking sharp. It seems like he has the nice movement on the 2 seam coming away from righties. He had Morneau frozen after a nice curveball.

Duncan looking Giambi-esque on a low slider. Picks up a walk.

Slightly odd that there’s only one projected OBP over .400 and just one projected SLG over .500 (both A-Rod’s, of course).

These announcers must have been given the “play up the prospects we got for Santana and don’t mention that we could have gotten Phil Hughes” memo before the game.  They haven’t mentioned it once.

Another walk for Duncan.

Wow, Ensberg missed a homerun by an inch there. Looks like he can still rake.

Igawa walks the bases loaded.

Ensberg has really looked good this spring.  I would say he’s almost a lock to make the team.  If Shelley can play a passable RF, the Yanks could trot out Ensberg (1B) and Shelley Duncan (RF) should the team face a tough lefty starter.

Seems like a good showing today, but 8 walks and 1 strikeout?  That’s a little troubling, especially considering the twins offense isn’t going to be that good.

What’s up with that jagoff on the Rays breaking Cervelli’s wrist?  I hope the next time we see them Joba puts some 100 mph Ray-killing heat in Navarro’s ear.  Assholes.

I would have liked to have seen more strikeouts from Hughes, but he did a good job of keeping the ball on the ground and seemed fairly efficient - needing 57 pitches to go four innings.  As for the walks, nearly half of those came courtesy of Igawa and he won’t be facing too many major league batters this season.  Horne walked a few too, but that’s the book on him - namely, that it takes him an inning or two to master his mechanics and then he settles down.

As for the Cervelli incident, perhaps it can be settled by Girardi putting a fist in Joe Maddon’s jaw.  After all, he’s the one fomenting this sort of thing.

word is Igawa’s been scouted by Louisiana Basin Silt College

Does Igawa have any NCAA eligibility?

Yes he does IE. Too bad its Womens volleyball. He may make 13th bitch.

“Too bad its Womens volleyball” etc.

Grow up.