Just great baseball analysis, SG.  This site has kept the home fires burning all winter.  I can’t tell you how much I appreciate the quality of this place.

Thanks for the wrap-up, SG.  I find it interesting that just about everyone in the media (sans Buster Olney) is predicting the Yanks to tank this year because the common wisdom is that a team can’t be expected to ride young pitchers to the playoffs.  However, Detroit did exactly that in 2006 with Verlander, Bonderman and Zumaya - with a far lesser lineup.  The other thing I believe people underestimate is the fact that Alan Horne and Jeff Marquez will be ready to help the team by mid season or perhaps earlier in case anyone (probably Mussina) needs to miss starts.

By the way, I bought a ticket this week for the game against the Rays on April 7.  The temperature is expected to be 39 degrees Fahrenheit that evening, which ought to make things interesting.

Great work!

If it isn’t too much work, can you take a look at the BoSox?

I’d have to combine all of Boston’s projections and I have a rule about doing too much work on Friday.  I can look at Boston next week, or you can use the average numbers here, which should probably be pretty close.  92-70, 857 RF, 741 RA.

SG, I don’t know what they’re paying you at RLYW, but it isn’t enough.

Thanks for all of the excellent work this offseason SG.

In my opinion, Boston is in big trouble unless Matsuzaka steps up his game this year.  Buchholz is a wild card in the same sense of Hughes that he has lots of upside but is still very young and unpredictable.  Lester won’t be any great shakes if his command remains shoddy and Wakefield will be league average at best.  That leaves Beckett, who in theory could repeat his 2007 season but only if he a) remains healthy all year and b) 2006 was a complete aberration.  I’m not saying Boston’s rotation is trash, by any means, but those who feel the team will win 96-98 games are being highly optimistic in my opinion.  For that to happen, Buchholz needs to win 15-16 games, Becket needs a redux of his his 2007 season and Matsuzaka has to perform like a no. 2 (i.e. ERA in the 4.00 range) rather than a no. 3 starter.  Any one of those things may happen, perhaps even two, but all three is highly unlikely.

Hey Frog, when are we going to skewer the NYC media?

By the way, I bought a ticket this week for the game against the Rays on April 7.  The temperature is expected to be 39 degrees Fahrenheit that evening, which ought to make things interesting.

I’m not going to an NYY game until July, but I have tickets to opening night for the Scranton Yankees.  Accuweather says 31 degrees, with a “RealFeel” of 22.  Should be fun!

IE, we need someone to set the site up.  I’d do that once the semester ends and I’ve got my 14 writing projects to procrastinate from.  Why, did you see something you liked?  I just read an awful essay by the Voice‘s Allan Barra on Joba and Santana.  Barra’s ad many excellent moments over the years, but in this piece he writes as if he’s never seen Phil Hughes, or, for that matter, a baseball game.

Me, I can’t promise to be as consistently funny as the FJM guys, but I can promise to be as consistently an asshole.

Real feel is an illusion.  Before I go running I always check the weather and if I dress according to the “real feel” I’m always too hot.  That’s not to say that 31 degrees will be cozy, but hopefully you’ll get to see Alan Horne or Jeff Marquez.

As for the new site, there is no hurry but it’s a fun thing to keep in mind.  My favorite punching bag would certainly be Ian O’Connor of the Bergen Record who famously excoriated Brian Cashman for not giving up Ian Kennedy or Melky Cabrera for Eric Gagne and that the GM had thus “waved the white flag” on the 2007 season.

If you guys really want a blog to attack the NY media we can probably create one here for you.  Think of a good name.

What, “Fire Mike Lupica” isn’t good enough? 

Thanks for the offer, SG.  I guess I’ll contact you off-thread when I’m ready to get serious.  But really, all of you, please get involved.  As spring heads toward summer and the bbq season, there will be enough skewering to go around for everyone.

Once again - thank you SG!
I’ll be at Opening Day at the stadium.  I don’t even want to look at the weather forecast.  They probably won’t late me take a blanket in unless it fits into one of those little plastic bags.

Incidentally, one thing about the analysis at the end:
It seems to me that the team has a greater-than-average number of releivers with real potential but similar projections.  If they all pitch, presumably some would outperform those projections and some would underperform them.  Presuming rational managing, presumably (again) the ones that overperform would end up getting more playing time.  IF we presume rational managing, then, wouldn’t the expected performance of a larger group of relievers like this project for a better collective result (over time) than a smaller group?  With a larger group, there’s a concrete strategy to increase/maximize the result.

Real feel is an illusion

True, but it makes me feel tougher to sit through the game at 22 as opposed to 31

If I had to pick one pitcher who should be starting the season in AAA to watch pitch, it would be Horne.  I’ll probably get Igawa.  I haven’t seen a starter announced yet.  I promise I’ll forget to bring my camera.

Let me tell you, I’ve been subscribed to this blog for the entire offseason, and it has made the time just fly by… I’ll be at the stadium Monday Afternoon as rowdy and out of controll as ever.  Thanks for all the work !!

I haven’t comment too much in the offseason as I don’t feel like I have much to contribute, but I read every entry you post and I have to tell you how much I apreciate it.

Bravo to SG and everyone else - this is the first site I check every morning after my email and facebook (so I guess its the third).  But the first proper site!

It’s been a long winter and I too thank you SG for your many interesting postings over the past weeks and months.  IE, I always like your insights, but must say that if Boston’s pitching has unpredictableness, the same has to be said for our favorite team, IMO.  Their collective bullpen has been superior to ours the past few years as well and I can’t see where getting Hawkins changes that imbalance much. Still, it’s fair to say this. The Yanks play well against Boston and I don’t fear them so much head to head. Where we are losing ground is the ability to beat Detroit, Cleveland and Anaheim and this will continue to be the big challenge this year.  I think it is smart to go with the youth, but the idea that all of these guys will have outstanding contributions in their first full year is pretty optimistic albeit not totally impossible. Hope it happens but not holding my breath. I’m also concerned about Wang and the health of Andy and Moose.

Not pessimistic, but I think the team will struggle hard to get to the 90 win mark. If they win 90 a lot of good things will have to happen. Should be quite entertaining. We have been debating this for months and starting Monday the long race begins.

SG, I read your Hardballtimes piece and wanted to ask you why Melky’s ZR projection is only average. He was 6th in Majors last year in ZR among qualifying CFers and his career total, .893, would have been good for 7th. I’m guessing his very subpar year in left in 05 is the reason, but I think there are more than enough reasons to discount it (Rookies usually struggle with defense in their first year being the big one). Do you think Melky is only going to be an average CFer or do you think the projection is off and that he will perform more like he did last year?

I’m trying to figure out why the Mass Media (hah!) seems to favor the Red Sox over the Yankees exceedingly while projections don’t.  Is it because some of the projections of young starters are taken with a grain of salt?

From what I’ve read, Melky apparently takes poor routes to fly balls.  However, as SG pointed out, metrics seem to disagree on whether Melky is a good defensive CF.  Obviously, he looks good to us because we are used to seeing Bernie Williams out there and his arm far surpasses that of Johnny Damon.  If I had to guess, I would probably say Melky is average - which will be fine in 2008 if he can pick up the offense to something approaching .290/.360/.430 or so.  In any case, Melky probably won’t stay in center over the long term as both Brett Gardner and Austin Jackson project to be better defensively and Jackson, at least, has the potential to outpace Melky hitting-wise, although he still needs to prove himself in AA this year.

Do you think Melky is only going to be an average CFer or do you think the projection is off and that he will perform more like he did last year?

I’ve got Melky around +5 projected using ZR.  I generally consider anyone in the -5 to +5 area average because of the factors that can skew the numbers.  I’d give him +5 for his arm on top of that though. so he should be in the 0 to +10 area overall.

"However, as SG pointed out, metrics seem to disagree on whether Melky is a good defensive CF.”

Very true, the metrics seem to pretty awful when it comes to consistency in the OF (I stole that from Sean Smith, so it must be true). I don’t really know what to think. I think Melky does well for his tools, which are not those of a great or even good CFer, but I’m wondering if he’s adept enough at positioning himself that it causes him to outproduce his tools.

“If I had to guess, I would probably say Melky is average - which will be fine in 2008 if he can pick up the offense to something approaching .290/.360/.430 or so.”

Lots of projection systems think he’s due to put up a pretty exciting line (for Melky that is). He’s looked good this spring. I’m hopeful he can progress at the plate this year and potentially be the leadoff man of the future (and I am not apologizing to Gardner for saying that).

“In any case, Melky probably won’t stay in center over the long term as both Brett Gardner and Austin Jackson project to be better defensively and Jackson, at least, has the potential to outpace Melky hitting-wise, although he still needs to prove himself in AA this year.”

I don’t think Cashman will let Gardner push Melky, you just can’t have that little power in the OF (Assuming they both play for NY) unless you have Mike Piazza catching (See 2000 NY Mets). When Jackson gets to the Bronx, yeah, then they’ll have to figure out what to do with the Melk man.

"I’ve got Melky around +5 projected using ZR.  I generally consider anyone in the -5 to +5 area average because of the factors that can skew the numbers.  I’d give him +5 for his arm on top of that though. so he should be in the 0 to +10 area overall. “

Cool, thanks SG.

I’ll be bookmarking this page and using it for many, many arguments at BBTF, so thank you for that as well.

I’m trying to figure out why the Mass Media (hah!) seems to favor the Red Sox over the Yankees exceedingly while projections don’t.

In general, the mass media uses last year as their projection for this year.  So Seattle = 88 win team + Bedard = AL West Champion.  Boston won the World Series and are bringing back everyone so they will win another one, etc., A good projection system realizes that what a player did prior to 2007 should be part of our estimate of their ability and should be used in 2008.

Amazing job SG. When I first looked at the results of the two scenarios, my first reaction was sort of, “well, yeah, I would think that most of us would have guessed that the Yanks would win between 93 and 98 games, too,” but then I immediately realized that the reason that most of the people who read your posts would have a good intuitive feel for how exactly how good the Yankees are is because they have benefited from your consistently thorough and conscientious breakdowns. What I’m saying is--you make all the rest of us just a little more intelligent about baseball. So thanks. And Go Yanks.

SG,

In the spirit of projections and predictions, would it be hard to set something up where the usual suspects here could go on the books for some predictions? Off the top of my head, I was thinking

Yankees record
Team MVP
Yankees fate this season (cellar, Wild Card, WS, etc.)

I’m just thinking ahead to give us something to talk about when it’s all over in 2008.

A good site name for taking easy potshots at the New York media could be “Chasshole”.

God I hate that guy.

I was curious and I realized it was something I could actually do on excel so I added up the difference in salaries for everyone you listed in the profiles. 

For the hitters, the total difference is -$21.65 million.  Giambi’s -19.9 and Jeter’s -9.7 didn’t help there.

For the pitchers, the difference between value and cost was $26.9 million.  Obviously the 4 non-FA pitchers helped with that total. 

Adding it up, the total team difference is $5.8 million dollars.  That doesn’t include bench players or back of the bullpen guys.  I would guess if you include them, the number would stay about the same or get better since there are no bad salaries there and no one should be below replacement level.

I wanted to ditto everyone’s pro-SG love-fest.  These articles have been great.

Dave S., that’s fantastic.  Anyone else want to suggest a name for the easy potshot skewer-the-idiots-in-the-NYC-sports-media blog?

Speaking of idiots, I’m listening to the game on WCBS.

Marlins announcers=breath of fresh air.

Sounds like a typical post-2006 Mussina start.

How about Pound Sterling?

As for Mussina he has not only given up runs but also lots of long fly balls, which is worrying.

Speaking of Mr. Sterling, he’s back to his old tricks.  “That ball is high, it is far, it is...(pause)...(more pausing)...(a bit more pausing for good measure)...caught.”

Phil Hughes should really be starting game 2 and Kennedy game 3 against the Blue Jays.  The Yanks may have to live with Mussina for the time being and he may indeed have some decent outings, but he’s a no. 5 starter at this point.

I think your looking too much into that IE. it’s regular season. not the playoffs. what order they go in doesn’t really matter that much.

I gotta go against the conformist groupthink on this site.  SG, I hate you, hate the blog, and I spit on the “work” you’ve done.

Um, I’m kidding.