Thursday, March 13, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Phil Hughes

After dominating the minors for two full seasons, Phil Hughes finally made his debut in Yankee pinstripes in 2007. After a middling first start, Hughes flashed some of the dominance that he had in the minors, taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Texas Rangers. With one out and facing Mark Teixeira, Hughes tore his hamstring. While re-habbing he rolled his ankle which delayed his return, but he did eventually make it back.

2007
Hughes wasn't really expected to pitch much in the majors in 2007, but injuries and ineffectiveness led to him being called up sooner than expected. Hughes's minor league numbers were pretty eye-popping, but there was some question if he was ready. Here's how Hughes's MLEs looked for 2005 and 2006. MLEs are major league equivalencies, which are used to translate minor league performance to comparable major league performance.

Year	Name	Age	Team	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
2005	Philip Hughes	19	CSC	12	12	64.0	60	26	6	13	56	3.66	8.4	0.8	1.8	7.9
2005	Philip Hughes	19	Tam	5	4	16.0	13	5	0	5	23	2.81	7.3	0.0	2.8	12.9
2006	Philip Hughes	20	Tam	5	5	28.0	25	8	1	3	29	2.57	8.0	0.3	1.0	9.3
2006	Philip Hughes	20	Tre	21	21	107.0	96	48	14	36	99	4.04	8.1	1.2	3.0	8.3
2007	Philip Hughes	21	Tam	1	1	1.0	1	0	0	3	4	0.00	9.0	0.0	27.0	36.0
2007	Philip Hughes	21	Tre	2	2	7.0	6	3	0	2	12	3.86	7.7	0.0	2.6	15.4
2007	Philip Hughes	21	SWB	5	5	27.0	22	8	1	8	31	2.67	7.3	0.3	2.7	10.3
	Total			51	50	250	223	98	22	70	254	3.53	8.0	0.8	2.5	9.1

Amazing numbers considering Hughes's age, and the three systems that projected him for 2007 expected big things.

Hughes	ERA	G	IP	Hit	R	ER	HR	BB	K	RSAA	RSAA/200	H/9	HR/9	BB/9	K/9
Avg Proj	3.99	27	131	128	63	58	13	46	104	8	12	8.8	0.9	3.2	7.2
Actual	4.46	13	73	64	39	36	8	29	58	0	0	7.9	1.0	3.6	7.2
Difference	89%	48%	56%							4%	8%	111%	92%	88%	100%

On its surface a 3.99 ERA may not seem like a big deal, but for a 21 year old who hadn't even pitched in AAA yet, that's a very optimistic projection. Hughes came back from his injury after missing almost three months and scuffled over his next six starts.

GS	W	L	IP	H	HR	R	ER	BB	SO	TBF	Stk%
6	1	2	32.3	32	6	25	23	15	29	143	65.1%
FB%	GB%	LD%	ERA	RA	FIP	xFIP	HR/FB	BB/9	K/9	RSAA	BABIP
48.0%	32.7%	19.4%	6.40	6.96	5.21	4.88	0.13	4.2	8.1	-7.3	.265

Hughes's problem during this stretch were a bad walk rate and a high HR rate. He had a very good BABIP or his performance may have been even worse.

Down the stretch Hughes was more effective.

GS	W	L	IP	H	HR	R	ER	BB	SO	TBF	Stk%
5	3	0	29.7	25	2	10	9	10	18	122	63.5%
FB%	GB%	LD%	ERA	RA	FIP	xFIP	HR/FB	BB/9	K/9	RSAA	BABIP
46.7%	35.6%	17.8%	2.73	3.03	3.87	5.02	0.05	3.0	5.5	6.2	.256

What's interesting here is that Hughes's K rate plummetted from 8.1 per 9 to 5.5 per 9. His ERA was probably lower than you'd expect given his peripherals but his FIP was solid, although his HR/FB rate may have been unsustainably low. Hughes's velocity seemed to be down from the scouting reports in the minors, and the consensus is that he didn't have either full strength or trust in his leg for the remainder of the season.

We have Pitch F/X data for 9 of Hughes's 13 starts. Here's a simple chart showing his average fastball velocity by game.

Date	FB Velocity
1-May	92.3
10-Aug	91.8
20-Aug	91.3
26-Aug	90.2
31-Aug	91.1
5-Sep	91.0
11-Sep	93.4
17-Sep	90.1
22-Sep	91.5

If a healthy Hughes can add a couple of MPH to that fastball, he's really going to be something.

Hughes's 2007 ended on an up note with a very good outing against Cleveland in the ALDS, where he pitched 3.2 shutout innings, allowing 2 hits and fanning 4.

2008
Despite constant rumors that he was on the verge of being dealt to Minnesota as part of a package for Johan Santana, Hughes remains a Yankee and I'm pretty happy about that. Here's what the projections say we should expect from Hughes in 2008.

Projection	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
chone	22	22	104	103	53	49	12	41	90	4.24	4.15	3	13	2	11
marcel	21	21	96	90	50	46	10	35	77	4.31	4.04	2	11	3	11
pecota	27	27	152	146	82	75	16	65	129	4.42	4.17	1	16	3	16
zips	26	26	141	136	63	58	13	40	106	3.70	3.75	12	26	9	21
cairo	28	28	156	142	70	66	14	50	122	3.81	3.76	11	27	10	23
average	25	25	130	123	64	59	13	46	105	4.07	3.96	6	19	6	17

Most of the systems expect a better Hughes in 2008, although the degree of better-ness varies. ZiPS is the most optimistic with CAIRO second, although Dan and my peripherals line up pretty closely. The average performance would make Hughes worth around 19 runs better than a replacement pitcher, although the innings are limited to 130. Boost that to 170 or so and he'd be worth about 25 runs above a replacement level pitcher. I'm not sure what kind of innings limit the Yankees will have on Hughes, but he did pitch around 150 in 2006 so getting to 170 in 2008 may be realistic.

Here are the percentile ranges of Hughes's CAIRO projection:

CAIRO %	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP	RSAA	RSAR	FRSAA	FRSAR
80%	28	28	156	130	62	58	10	43	133	3.34	3.17	20	35	20	34
65%	28	28	156	136	66	62	12	46	128	3.57	3.47	16	31	15	29
Baseline	28	28	156	142	70	66	14	50	122	3.81	3.76	11	27	10	23
35%	28	28	156	148	74	70	16	54	116	4.04	4.06	7	23	5	18
20%	28	28	156	154	78	74	18	57	111	4.28	4.35	3	19	0	13

CAIRO loves it some Phil Hughes apparently. Even his 20% projection is pretty good. I think Hughes's range of projections is probably spread more than this. Young pitchers have tended to struggle while getting acclimated to the majors. I still think Hughes could hit that 80% projection though.

Value
Second year player = bargain. If we use the average Hughes projections for runs saved above replacement pro-rated to 170 innings, he'd be worth 25 runs above replacement level.

Proj WAR	Proj Value	Salary	Difference
2.5	$11,250,000	$400,000	$10,850,000

For comparison's sake, here's what Johan Santana's value looks like:

Proj WAR	Proj Value	Salary	Difference
5.7	$25,650,000	$19,000,000	$6,650,000

I realize the Yankees first priority is to win and not to maximize their dollars, but in a straight comparison Hughes projects to be the better value in 2008. Of course there is also a greater risk of uncertainty with Hughes.

Conclusion
I was adamently opposed to any form of the Johan Santana trade that would have involved trading Hughes. Even if the Yankees are a win or two worse in 2008 because they didn't pull the trigger, they'll be more fun to watch for me.

I have a hunch that Hughes is going to be the best starter on the Yankees this year. Better than Joba, better than Pettitte, and better than Wang.

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