Very sneaky of you, faking like you’re linking to her blog, but then just linking back to RLYW.  I see what you’re doing.

I’m really hopefull this season isn’t Kevin Brown Farewell Tour 2.0 for Moose.  I really like the guy, and honestly want him to put up at least slightly above replacement level numbers.  If Hughes and Kennedy work out well, having Moose as the #5 iis nothing to sneeze at.

No sinister plot here, just bad HTML.  It’s fixed.

I like Moose too and hope he does well, but it’s tough to fight a physical loss of skill.

One has to wonder though, given the fact that Mussina was hitting 88 in March during this last start, whether injuries last year were aggravating his loss of skill.  Working out during the off-season may have helped as well.  In any case, Mussina essentially only needs to give the Yanks a good to serviceable first half, at least in theory, as the team can then substitute Joba for him after the AS break - again, if everything goes according to plan.

As IE said, there was some talk that Moose was fighting through several minor injuries last year.  Plus as noted he has finally decided that strength training is a good thing.  From an objective prediction system, I agree that you can’t factor those things in;  you can speculate, but what happened, happened.

Subjectively, I think Moose will do well this year.  Not 2003 good certainly, and probably not even 2006 good.  But I think he could get back to being a decent 3/4 type, which may also mean that this may *not* be his last season with the Yanks; there are a lot of other things that have to happen if he wants to be back, but the only one he can control is how well he pithes.

there was some talk that Moose was fighting through several minor injuries last year

Of course, that can be looked at as just another way of saying that he’s 39.

Indeed, there is some talk this spring that Moose is 39.

That said, I will root like hell for him to put up decent numbers during the regular season and contribute some good innings to a WS run.  There’s always been an anti-Mussina crowd that overstates his failings, I believe, because Moose doesn’t profile the way we like our athletes to.  This has made me like him more.

Also, Kay hates Mussina.

I like Mussina, too, and I’m certainly not rooting against him.  But nagging injuries come with the territory at his age.  I expect him to give the Yankees some effective starts when he’s feeling good, and some not so effective starts when he’s not feeling good.  I just hope that Eiland and Girardi are perceptive enough, and Mussina cooperative enough, to minimize the number of times that he takes the hill when his body isn’t going to give him a chance to be competitive.

Kay hates anyone who’s smarter than he is.  That’s why he’s got so much hate.

Kay hates Mussina because he has more trouble with the New York Times crossword puzzle.

Seriously, I don’t think I’ve ever been as aware of a team’s broadcaster/local radio personality hating an essential member of the team, and for years.  Hates him!  Like, with hatred!  It’s almost as if Mussina went to Stuyvesant or something.

Perhaps Mike M. attended the Stuyvesant of Williamsport, PA.

Oh, do they have a branch there?

Are you in the market for some rustic employment, Frog?

By the way, Scott Patterson is really making a case for himself.  Girardi puts him in the middle of innings with men on and he has come through again and again.  He’s also shown an ability to strike out major league hitters in his small sample size.  Right now, I’d rather have him on the roster than Veras or Bruney.

It also appears the Yanks have avenged Cervelli as Heath Phillips hit Evan Longoria with a pitch and was ejected in the first inning.

apparently Shelley came into 2nd base with his spikes high and started a bench clearing fiasco. Supposedly Johnny Gomes laid him out.

According to Peter Abraham, Gomes ran in from right field and “tackled” him.  In any case, Duncan just became even more of an icon.  This also probably guarantees a roster spot for Morgan Ensberg as Shelley will almost certainly sit out a few games to begin the season.  In any case, I’m all for this sort of thing.  If Tampa wants to play spring training games like the 7th game of the World Series, that’s their business.  But other teams, namely the Yanks, don’t have to stand by idly while their players get knocked around in exhibition games.

By the way, what is it about Andy Sonnastine that the Yanks can’t touch the guy - even in spring training?

Kay hates Mussina, cuz this is how we rolled at Stuyvesant.

But nagging injuries come with the territory at his age.

Yes, of course.  And it is a fine-line with, “he was unlucky with the injuries last year”, and “he’s just old”.  I *think* he was a little unlucky with the nagging injuries last year.  And even if he wasn’t he certainly *could* be lucky with them this year.  And of course, if he is on a good strength/conditioning program, it could help prevent some of these injuries as well.  I will be optimistic with him until proven otherwise!

I’d really like to see Moose get into the Hall, because if he doesn’t it will be due to stuff out of his control; not having enough offense/bullpen to win 20 games, etc.  Certainly it is unlikely he is there (as in, has compiled the numbers) yet.  Being an important part of a World Series winner would help!

Mussina is on the all-time snakebit team, for sure.  Two of his best years, ‘94-5, he would have had a strong possibility of 20 wins if it weren’t for the strike. He probably deserved the 2001 CY Young Award over his teammate.  Carl Everett: We won’t even go there.

At the same time, Mussina played his entire career for winning teams, with the exception of his last two years on the Orioles.  Let’s not pretend he has labored in obscurity for baseball’s downtrodden.  He spent a good part of his career having the best closer in baseball history backing him up, if not always the best middle men.  In any case, if we give Mussina another 10 career wins to make up for 94-95 and some tough luck, that still only puts him at 260.  That’s a fine career, no doubt about it, but he was never quite dominant enough to be considered in the same class as say, Randy Johnson or even Schilling.  Failing that, he needs 300 wins, which is out of reach.

IE,

In the past a lot of the talk has been about Mussina missing the “magic” numbers.  Things like, “he’s never won 20 games”, or, “he hasn’t ever won a Cy Young”.  For the most part, HOF voters don’t dig deep.  I think Moose having 260 wins PLUS 3 or 4 20 win seasons, and a Cy Young, would get him in the Hall.  I’m not saying he would have had to pitch better, just have a handful more wins at the right time.

Is that right?  No.  But I think it would have changed the perception of a number of the voters about him, and it seems that perception is probably more important than fact with a number of voters.  Schilling may be a keystone player for Moose though.  If Schilling doesn’t get in, Moose probably won’t either.  But if Schilling does get in, I think Moose has a punchers chance.  Especially if he can get a big WS moment this year.

<a href =“http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/yankees/ny-spbrawl0313,0,4256678.story”>Tag</a>

Wow, Shelley looks really big next to Iwamura.  I wouldn’t mind having him behind me at any point.

Darn it, hit submit instead of preview and screwed up the tag.  Oh well.  I just hope this doesn’t spill over and start anything actually bad.  Can you imagine if Posada had gotten his wrist broken instead of Cervilli?  Posada probably would have gotten out of the way, but I still shudder at the thought.

I really believe that Mussina will have a bounce back year in 2008.

I’m feeling extremely lazy at the moment, but there is a list of something like 8 players who had an ERA under 4 after the age of 35, and then had an ERA over 5 the following year.

In the third year, the players bounced back tremendously.

I truly think that he will give the team at least his 65% CAIRO line.

Oh, and thanks for the linkage. 

Good point, I remember writing about the bounce back effect with Randy Johnson last offseason.

Ok, feeling less lazy and went back to where I posted the information. pretty table

It has happened 11 times since 1950 (including to Jaimie Moyer twice).

Year 1 average: 212.4 IP 3.46 ERA
Year 2 average: 169.7 IP 5.60 ERA
Year 3 average: 184.1 IP 4.09 ERA….with every single pitcher dropping in ERA and 7 of them increasing their IP total (or stayed within 2 innings).

I think there is a lot of encouragement there.

including to Jaimie Moyer twice

so far