Good stuff.  I’m a little surprised at just how close Rivera’s projected value comes to his salary. 

On another note, Pete Abraham is reporting that Pettitte is feeling fine, and should be a go for the first go-round in the rotation, just not the #2 slot.  It seems like this actually is better, having Pettitte and Wang split up, as they are the most likely to go past the 6th inning.  I just can’t wait, under a week till real baseball!

Rivera’s my favorite Yankee of all time

I second that.

Of course, that $1.5 million bonus gets bigger over the ensuing two years. But I have to say that between Mariano non-statistical value and the fact that we don’t have anything else resembling a surefire effective pitcher in the bullpen in ‘08, the Yanks were going to have to shell out a boatload for Mariano.  The exact amount of that boatload doesn’t concern me a whole lot.

Mariano has also been my favorite Yankee over the ‘95--now stretch.  Mostly because he reminds me of me: deceptive delivery, always the same calm demeanor, gets it done when it matters most, demoralizes the opposition.

I thought Rivera’s contract length was just fine.  I mean, if he goes from dominant to very good, there’s obviously still a place for him. Who cares if he’s being paid to be dominant, he’ll at least make the team better in each year of that contract.

I mean, if he goes from dominant to very good, there’s obviously still a place for him

The ONLY problem with this is, if someone else steps up as a dominant reliever, will Mo still be the closer?  I’m thinking of someone like Cox or Melancon.  With Joe Torre, we’d know the answer; Mo is his closer, regardless of if he is the most deserving.  Will Joe Girardi feel the same way?  Of course if this situation does come up, it will be good for several weeks of us discussing if the 9th inning closer or 8th inning setup man is more valuable, if you have two relievers that are very-good or better.

Now just to be clear, *my* opinion is that through the three years it likely won’t be an issue, because I have a feeling that Mo will either 1) remain dominant or 2) be injured where he isn’t pitching anyway.  More likely #1.

Mo is the only reason to ever hear Metallica in public.

The ONLY problem with this is, if someone else steps up as a dominant reliever, will Mo still be the closer?

This isn’t really that big of a problem actually.  A lot of teams have done pretty well having their best reliever as a setup guy (think Mo setting up Wetteland, Percival setting up Smith, Zumaya setting up Jones, Betancourt setting up Borowoski, etc.).

This is because the typical save situation is actually pretty low-leverage.  Teams win 96% of games they are leading in the ninth regardless of who’s pitching.  The percentages obviously decrease as the game gets closer, but a lot of games can end up lost during setup time so the net difference may be negligible.

The ONLY problem with this is, if someone else steps up as a dominant reliever, will Mo still be the closer? 

And a logical counter to that argument is, does the closer necessarily need to be the best pitcher? I think, now, I’d rather have Joba and/or Mo coming into the game when:

(a) the starter puts a guy on and has to come out in say, the 6th or 7th
(b) one of the later innings that has the better hitters due up (say, the 3-4-5 guys in the 7th vice the 7-8-9 guys in the 9th)

So, even if Mo is not necessarily the best pitcher in the latter years of this contract, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’s not getting used right. Although, it won’t be on purpose, probably.

SG stole my answer.

As I said, a good discussion.  Again, I don’t think it will be a problem anyway, but my greater point is if the length/dollars has Mo used differently than he should be.  E.g. Bernie in 2006 was actually quite valuable as a bench player, and that probably would have been his best role in 2005 as well.  Instead, a combination of his contract (yes, I’m speculating) and the fact that he was Bernie Williams had him starting most every day.

So I’m listening to the game (Cleveland announcers), and Kennedy had a rough first.  Announcers brought out the, “the Yankees weren’t willing to include this guy in trade for Johan Santana?”.  I think if Cleveland wanted to swap Kennedy and Horne in the trade instead of Hughes, the Yankees would have done it in a minute.  But that would require the announcers to *think*, rather than regurgitate.

Speaking of today’s game: do we think Scott Patterson is for real?  I don’t mean unhittable-real, I just mean useful-real.  My goodness he has been the definition of automatic this spring.

Speaking of today’s game: do we think Scott Patterson is for real?

Probably more useful than a lot of what the Yankees have been running out there the past few years...if he’s just replacement-level he’s better than some of what the Yankees have used I think (Sidney Ponson?).

re: the yankees bullpen -

I’m still unconvinced about Traber. I’d like to see Ohlendorf as the long guy after some more success in the minors, Alba or Britton with the club. Maybe some of the other guys could get packaged for a prospect catcher or something else to address long term needs (shortstop?)

either way, I want them to put their best foot forward and ditch farnsworth if he’s blowing up. they have what seems to me a wealth of parts in what people perceive as their weakness.

Joba and Mo are obviously pretty sweet ending games, even if it’s just for this year.

Ohlendorf is supposedly ill-suited for long work, as he gains 4-5 mph on his fastball when he is airing it out for an inning at a time. 

My question about Patterson is more along the lines of: is he going to be valuable enough to merit taking up a spot that could be taken by a young pitcher with real upside, e.g. Ohlie, Bruney, Britton, (who was sent down yesterday) Edwar, etc.

Patterson looks like a guy who gets by on deception, not necessarily great stuff.  That can certainly work, and I’d guess he’s as good a bet as any of the Bruney/Ohlendorf/Britton/Edward contingent as far as being effective in 2008.

If the Yanks feel he is the guy best equipped to get MLB hitters out right now I don’t see the harm in stashing the others in the minors.  I’d guess they’ll be revolving the last few spots in the pen all year based on effectiveness and injuries and with Hawkins and Farns off the books in ‘09 there’s plenty of reason to try out everyone to see if they can build a pen for the next couple of years out of the candidates they have.

Deception is definitely not a bad thing. I think it’s Okajima that doesn’t have that great stuff (he was never really projected to be all that good), but his delivery is extremely deceptive. Combine that with good control and/or command of the strike zone, which Patterson seems to have, and you’ve got yourself a reliever worth talking about.