The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Looking Ahead to 2008 - Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins

With the season speedily approaching it's time to zip through the rest of the bullpen members. I'll look at Kyle Farnsworth and LaTroy Hawkins today and the rest of the candidates tomorrow. Friday I'll wrap up the pitching as a whole and look at my overall team projection.

Farnsworth has always had a great fastball as far as velocity, but his command of it is spotty which makes him a middling reliever. The Yankees signed him after his career year in 2005 on the hopes he'd harnessed his physical talent but so far instead they've gotten the Farns that Cubs fans warned us about.

2007
Kyle Farnsworth ERA G IP Hit R ER HR BB K RSAA RSAA/200 H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Avg Proj 4.04 68 65 60 32 29 8 26 67 4 12 8.3 1.1 3.7 9.3
Actual 4.80 64 60 60 35 32 9 27 48 -3 -9 9.0 1.4 4.1 7.2
Difference 84% 95% 92% -72% -71% 92% 83% 91% 78%


Farnsworth did worse than expected in every single category. He gave up more hits, walks, HRs and runs while striking out fewer batters than projected. Other than that he was solid.

For whatever reason Farnsworth didn't seem to be throwing as hard as consistently as he usually does last year, especially early in the season. For the games we have Pitch F/X data for, Farnsworth averaged 95 mph with his fastball which may be where he normally sits. Whether it was velocity or Kyle being Kyle, he was a disappointment last season.

2008
For 2008, we probably should expect a slight bounceback from Farnsworth if you look at his projections.
Projection G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 67 0 63 62 32 30 7 27 55 4.29 4.18 1 8 1 7
marcel 49 27 62 60 32 30 7 26 55 4.35 4.15 1 7 1 7
pecota 47 0 53 48 24 22 6 21 51 3.71 3.91 4 10 3 7
zips 69 0 65 60 31 29 9 27 64 4.02 4.28 3 10 1 6
cairo 63 0 64 62 34 32 9 27 56 4.50 4.54 0 6 -1 4
average 59 5 61 58 31 29 8 26 56 4.19 4.22 2 8 1 6


And here's what CAIRO sees for the Farns's range of projections.
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 63 0 64 54 28 26 6 22 63 3.70 3.46 5 12 6 12
65% 63 0 64 58 31 29 8 24 60 4.10 4.00 3 9 2 8
Baseline 63 0 64 62 34 32 9 27 56 4.50 4.54 0 6 -1 4
35% 63 0 64 66 37 35 11 30 52 4.90 5.09 -3 3 -5 0
20% 63 0 64 70 40 38 12 32 49 5.30 5.63 -6 0 -9 -4


I'd be lying if I said had any clue how Farnsworth will do. I don't even have a gut feeling, but none of the above lines would surprise me.

Value
Farnsworth's average projection is that he will save 8 runs above a replacement level reliever. We can probably give him a little extra credit for leverage, I'll use 1.4 on the assumption he'll pitch some important innings but not as many as Mo. That boosts him to about one win above replacement

Proj WAR Proj Value Salary Difference
1.0 $4,500,000 $5,500,000 -$1,000,000


Farnsworth not worth his contract? Who'd a thunk it?

Moving on from the Professor, we have Hawkins. I won't look at his 2007 projections because I don't have them handy, but I will touch on his actual performance.

2007
Hawkins had a surprisingly effective season in 2007 for the Rockies after putting up a 4.48 ERA for Baltimore in 2006. Hawkins throws hard but he seems to have lost his ability to strike anyone out. This was credited to a change in his approach, as he's re-defined himself as a sinkerballer who pitches to contact. The contrast between his 2004/2005 and 2006/2006 seems to bear that out.
Year G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA * FIP *ERA+ WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9 GB% FB% LD% IFFB%
2004 77 50 25 82 72 27 24 10 14 69 2.63 3.69 167 1.05 1.10 1.54 7.57 36% 39% 19% 6%
2005 66 21 6 56.3 58 27 24 7 24 43 3.83 4.57 113 1.46 1.12 3.84 6.87 42% 36% 16% 5%
2006 60 12 0 60.3 73 30 30 4 15 27 4.48 3.91 102 1.46 0.60 2.24 4.03 42% 33% 20% 4%
2007 62 10 0 55.3 52 21 21 6 16 29 3.42 4.43 140 1.23 0.98 2.60 4.72 63% 21% 16% 1%
04-05 143 71 31 138.3 130 54 48 17 38 112 3.12 4.05 145 1.21 1.11 2.47 7.29 39% 38% 18% 5%
06-07 122 22 0 115.6 125 51 51 10 31 56 3.97 4.16 120 1.35 0.78 2.41 4.36 51% 28% 18% 2%


Despite the big drop in his K rate in 2006, Hawkins's GB/FB rate was pretty consistent with 2004 and 2005, so 2007 is the real outlier here. While a pitcher changing his style is certainly not without precedent, Hawkins is a risky bet to replicate his 2007 success.

2008
Here's the projection gauntlet for Hawkins.
Projection G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
chone 61 0 54 61 30 27 5 18 33 4.50 4.18 0 5 1 6
marcel 52 28 59 62 29 27 6 20 36 4.12 4.32 2 8 0 5
pecota 44 0 48 56 28 26 5 17 26 4.76 4.50 -2 3 -1 3
zips 61 0 56 60 29 27 6 20 31 4.34 4.56 1 6 -1 3
cairo 58 0 58 63 28 27 6 16 31 4.19 4.30 2 8 0 5
average 55 6 55 60 29 27 6 18 31 4.36 4.37 1 6 0 5


Not exactly awe-inspiring, but serviceable. The low K rate scares me, and tells me that Hawkins is probably a guy who's best off starting an inning unless there's a double play opportunity to be had.

And here's the range of CAIRO projections
CAIRO % G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA FIP RSAA RSAR FRSAA FRSAR
80% 58 0 58 55 23 22 4 12 37 3.38 3.36 7 13 6 11
65% 58 0 58 59 25 24 5 14 34 3.79 3.83 4 10 3 8
Baseline 58 0 58 63 28 27 6 16 31 4.19 4.30 2 8 0 5
35% 58 0 58 67 31 30 7 18 28 4.59 4.78 -1 5 -3 2
20% 58 0 58 71 33 32 8 20 25 5.00 5.25 -3 2 -6 -1


Hawkins isn't really going to be a key part of the pen, although I suppose that could change if he earns it, so that baseline or even the 35% projection wouldn't be too bad.

Value
Hawkins on average looks to be about six runs better than a replacement level reliever. If we give him a leverage index credit of 1.3 then that's about eight runs better.

Proj WAR Proj Value Salary Difference
0.8 $3,600,000 $3,750,000 -$150,000


Seems like the Hawkins contract is right around where it should be.

Conclusion
I'd view anything that Farnsworth does this year as gravy. I don't have much in the way of expectations for him. I think Hawkins will be passable if unspectacular. Hopefully some of the young arms on the team develop into dependable relievers over the first half of the season which will lessen the need for over-reliance on either of them.
--Posted at 8:46 am by SG / 25 Comments | - (799)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

Possibly Stupid Question- is it possible to throw a sidearm knuckleball?  Has anyone ever done it and gotten to the minor leagues?  It strikes me as the most wonky pitch one could really make.

I don’t see why it wouldn’t be possible.  If anyone could do it I’d bet on El Duque.

Maybe the Farns should try it.

Farnsworth certainly has the ability - the raw physical talent - to blow past his 80% projection.  Unfortunately it seems to be that thing between his ears that keeps him closer to the 35% projection.  I have a feeling he won’t get as low as the 20% projection; at least not with anywhere near that many innings.  I think if he pitches that poorly, Girardi simply won’t use him.

I think Hawkins was signed to provide some stability.  He’s the type of guy you can use for an inning or two late in the game when you have those 4-5 run leads, where you’re pretty confident you’ll still have at least a 2-3 run lead when he is done.  But also not need to use Joba or Mo in those cases.  There were certainly times last year that kind of pitcher would have come in handy.

is it possible to throw a sidearm knuckleball?

It seems to me that would impart too much spin on the ball.  Since I can’t actually throw the knuckler I don’t know for sure, but it just seems like it would provide some sideways spin, which would be counter-productive for the knuckler.  Though even if it weren’t a true knuckle-ball, it may still be an effective pitch.

I am absolutely sure either Chris Britton or Scott Patterson could put up similar numbers to whatever Farnsworth will produce this season.  Hopefully, Cashman has learned that spending a lot of money on set-up guys is not the best way to go.

I was just reading this interview last night, and Hawkins seems like a pretty likeable guy.  I’ll definetly be rooting for him to be servicable.

I am absolutely sure either Chris Britton or Scott Patterson could put up similar numbers to whatever Farnsworth will produce this season.

I’m actually somewhat impressed with what I’ve seen from Farnsworth so far this Spring.  That is to say, its better than what I usually expect out of him.

Thanks, SG and Mike!  My roommate is a weirdo and she wants to try it for fun and see if she can hit the side of a barn, so to speak.  However, I don’t think it’s a thing that can be learned except by bizarro experimentation, and it will be funny with her low velocity (she doesn’t have a lot of arm strength).

Thanks to Rich Harden as well.

I realize it’s only one game, but command continues to be elusive for the vaunted Jon Lester, who walked three batters in four innings of work.

Lester threw 87 pitches, 47 of them for strikes.  That’s exactly the sort of thing he’s been doing over parts of the past two seasons.

Lester threw 87 pitches, 47 of them for strikes.  That’s exactly the sort of thing he’s been doing over parts of the past two seasons.

I did rib today a co-worker who is a Red Sox fan about this (not the control, but the fact that Lester didn’t pitch well).  He pointed out how Lester was better than Hughes since Lester won a World Series game (yes, the discussion was more involved than him just pulling that out of no-where).  I think I’m going to have a lot of fun with this co-worker this year!

Not that this is surprising or anything, but Mr. George King just wrote an article claiming Joba should be in the pen “forever” because finding a guy to dominate in the 7th or 8th inning is harder than finding a 4th or 5th starter.  It’s absolutely amazing that this man gets paid money to write such bilge.  Even minimum wage would be too much for this sort of stupidity.

When are we starting that “Fire the NYC Mainstream Sports Media” Blog?  It’s gotta be more interesting than these papers I’m grading.

I believe NoMaas.org already provides that service.  Their recent send-up of Bob Klapich is quite funny.

Sigh.  IE, I was counting on your cutting irony. 

I guess I’ll have to found “Fire Murray Chass” all by lonesome.  Feel free to contribute, all of you.

Farnsworth did worse than expected in every single category. He gave up more hits, walks, HRs and runs while striking out fewer batters than projected. Other than that he was solid.

what’s there left to be solid again? raspberry other then the solid contacts that the batters made against him?

I remind us all that SG is a clever and subtle writer.

Hawkins is definitely easy to root for, personality-wise.

It seemed to me that looking over the Yankee boxes this spring, he’s been a groundball pitcher - with good control - again.  Of course it’s only March and it’s a tiny sample, but hopefully it reflects a genuine and successful shift in approach.  If so, he’ll be a nice guy to bring in late in the game with a runner on 1st.

Am I the only one with a gut feeling that the bullpen under Joe G. is going to be much better this year?

Are you sure, Dave S.?  I seem to remember Hawkins giving up quite a few fly balls.  In any case, Hawkins will be a versatile guy who can throw 80, hopefully league average, innings or so out of the pen.  In any case, we should take all these spring stats with large doses of salt.

Just checked a few boxes…from those I’ve seen with him pitching it’s about a 3/1 ratio.

Couldn’t agree more about Spring stats being meaningless (see: I-Rod as masher).  God, these last few days of ST are excruciating.

Indeed.  Hopefully, A-Rod’s Bobby Meachan-like defense won’t carry over into the regular season.  Both Wang and Pettitte are going to need decent infield play in order to be successful.

Looks like our old buddy Jaret Wright is on the scrap heap these days. I wonder if we could see him in a Mets uni at some point?

because finding a guy to dominate in the 7th or 8th inning is harder than finding a 4th or 5th starter

You know what?  I would agree with that.  Mo probably could have been a 4/5th starter if he stayed there, and instead became a dominant 7/8th inning guy, and later dominant closer.  So I will agree that statement is correct.

However, where is argument breaks down is the fact that though Joba may *only* be a 4/5th starter THIS year, he projects to be a 1/2 - maybe even a true ace - only a couple of years down the road.  And those are VERY, VERY hard to find.  I wonder if King is really that dumb, or just figures to get more readers if he is controversial?  Probably that dumb.

I recall tales of The Mick throwing sidearm knucklers in practice sessions and pissing the lads off. Yogi has said on several occasions that Mantle had a very nice butterfly ball.
Of course Yogi has said a lot of things that might not make sense to people unfamiliar with his malaprops.
I think I may be Yogi’s Irish bastard son.

Frog, I’d be interested in writing for a blog like that. IF I weren’t writing papers, making films and having the rest of my free time being taken up by track right now. Perhaps when my semester ends.

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