I’ve always looked at Matsui as the “professional” hitter.  The guy that will drive in runs without always hitting a home run.  He has no problem scoring a runner on third by hitting a grounder down the line or a sac fly.  He’s a solid hitter and if he stays healthy then he’ll be productive.

My biggest problem with Matsui was that stupid streak that seemed to wear him down over the course of the season, but now that it’s over and he likely won’t have to play defense, I expect a solid offensive season.

yeah, he’s pretty much just a solid guy. he’s your prototypical hitter really. good average, good on base, good slugging . no obvious stand out point but also no obvious weakness.

Truth be told, purely looking at a swing mechanics and plate approach I like Matsui over just about anyone in the majors. he’s simply the abosalute textbook.

Matsui does not grade well defensively by zone rating, despite what the announcers will say about him.

I’ve never understood how anyone could think he’s a decent defender, especially anyone who watches him on a regular basis. He regularly gets terrible reads on fly balls, which sometimes causes him to play outs into extra base hits. The defensive changes in the outfield are very exciting to me.

With the present lineup I don’t think I trust anyone more than Matsui with risp.

Hideki Matsui=Paul O’Neill?

Actually, without checking at all I venture to say that Matsui is a better hitter at this age than O’Neill was.

Truth be told, purely looking at a swing mechanics and plate approach I like Matsui over just about anyone in the majors. he’s simply the abosalute textbook.

really? 

when Matsui is going well, i could see this i guess. 

but on the other hand, he also goes through LONG streaks when he is completely pulling off the ball and just grounds out to 2B over and over for days at a time.

as far as swing mechanics, give me A-Rod anyday.

Interesting comparison.  With checking, age 29 to 33 OPS+:

Matsui— 109, 137, 130, 128 (172 ABs), 123.

O’Neill—102, 136, 176 (369 ABs), 137, 123.

Easy to forget how good O’Neill was in ‘94.

Thanks Ed.  So pretty similar, then, except for O’Neill’s 1994.  Even if O’Neill came back to earth a bit in hypothetical full season, you’ve got to give the decision to O’Neill.

also, O’Neill was a VERY underrated defender.

offense + defense, i’ll take O’Neill over Matsui.

Similar hitters indeed, slight edge to O’Neill.  Fielding and base-running put O’Neill ahead as a player.

I like it that temperamentally they’re the single most likely player and the single least likely player to kick a water cooler in recent memory.  They’d have made a good ‘70s cop show.

I’ve never understood how anyone could think he’s a decent defender, especially anyone who watches him on a regular basis

I think his first year he was - while not good - not bad.  I think that -6 runs is probably right on the low end of the range of an average LF.  I think everyone was excited that we had a left-fielder that could hit AND play defense.  And of course too there was, “the adjustment period”.  So of course, initial impression is that he’s a pretty good fielder, and those stick.  But certainly, obviously, he isn’t that good of a left-fielder.  Good enough to play in an emergency, or get an occasional start if Wang is pitching?  Yes.  Should be starting there?  No.

I wonder how O’Neill’s numbers compare on defense and running to Matsui’s.  I don’t think Lee Panas has done historical numbers, only the last couple years.

As for my eyeballs (not metrics), O’Neill had a much better arm, less so later in his career, but he could still unleash a cannon now and then.  He was also pretty immobile, not so much an issue in Yankee stadium RF, but that was why that running catch in the Series was so amazing.  Who knew he could get there?

Paulie was a very good defender according to zone rating.  Here are his career numbers in RF as a Yankee (apologies for the formatting but I don’t have time to pretty it up).

YEAR   PMAA   RSAA   RS/162
1993   8   6   11
1994   3   2   3
1995   6   5   8
1996   23   19   22
1997   6   5   5
1998   21   17   18
1999   9   7   7
2000   4   3   3
2001   -4   -4   -6
As a Yankee   76   60   9

+9 per season on average.

So Paulie > Matsui by 1-2 wins/year.

Olney was right.  The dynasty died when he retired. 

Some favorite Yankee, I already forgot he was awesome. 

And I’m no judge of defense.  I’m gonna stick to Gameday from now on.

SG: “Small sample size caveats apply of course”

Not to be a jerk, but I think you have in hand the data to turn x OPS in n ABs into x +/- sigma_x.  It would be awesome to see that.

I love it that (according to reports) in June of ‘02 Cashman was phoning O’Niell and begging him to unretire. 

I guess that’s what 2 months of Shane Spenser, John Vanderwaal and Marcus Thames will do to a GM.

Not to be a jerk, but I think you have in hand the data to turn x OPS in n ABs into x +/- sigma_x

I’ll use PA instead of AB, so the sigma on Matsui’s OPS over 288 PA is 0.143.

Cool.  If you could add that sort of info to your code/procedure going forward it would be really useful and educational.  Your call on the effort/extra complexity vs utility equation, of course.

Ooh, first server error of the season for me.

I’ll use PA instead of AB, so the sigma on Matsui’s OPS over 288 PA is 0.143.

Now my prob-and-stats was never very good, and is EXTREMELY rusty, so in simpler terms, we could say that .794<=matsui_as_a_dh<=1.080?  In basic terms?

Matsui gets put upon because of his defense… but I still like him.

He was also pretty immobile, not so much an issue in Yankee stadium RF, but that was why that running catch in the Series was so amazing.  Who knew he could get there?

If I remember right that was the game Pettitte was taken out after a jam nursing a 1-0 lead and I believe Polonia was a ph against Wetteland. Wasn’t O’Niell hurting? leg issue or hammy? 

I remember that series win hinged on three key performances.  Cone to win the first game, the Leyritz clutch bomb and O’Niell’s catch. As good as Andy was he needed that catch or I should say the team needed that to seal the win. Once it was 3-2 you just had a feeling they would close it out at home.
What a great memory.

22 - one can expect the true value of some nicely behaved measurable quantity to be within +/- one sigma about 2/3 of the time.  Within +/- 2 sigma, it’s 95%.

That’s kind of what I thought…but I haven’t had to do that kind of stuff in a decade, for which I am thankful.  Unfortunately as we all know baseball players aren’t kind enough to put up statistics in a “nicely behaved” manner!

Truth be told, purely looking at a swing mechanics and plate approach I like Matsui over just about anyone in the majors. he’s simply the abosalute textbook.

Jeter is fundamentally sound at the plate.

Jeter is fundamentally sound at the plate.

He may be fundamentally sound but that is not a traditionally pretty swing.  He’s like the anti A-Rod in that regard.  Still, it’s an acquired taste I think.

Hi guys I’ve been a reader for some time first post here…coincidence every outfielder slumped for the first 2 1/2 months while our record was in the toilet then everyone went nuts and we surged into the playoffs? Maybe with the increased conditioning this spring there won’t be as many slow starts. There is speculation Matsui may start season on the DL in which case 3 out of Lane, Ensberg, Woodward, Green, et. al. may make the team. What do you think?

in which case 3 out of Lane, Ensberg, Woodward, Green, et. al. may make the team.

I don’t see how Matsui going on the DL makes 3 of those guys end up on the team. If he does start on the DL, you have to have someone up who can be sent down without having to clear waivers. I’d rather see Duncan in the OF and Ensberg at 1B than Lane out there.. and Brett Gardner for a late inning defensive replacement.

I’ll get into it more when I do the bench post/projections Thursday or Friday, but Lane’s projection isn’t very good.  It seems like he’s not a good defender either, which would be the only advantage he might have over Duncan. 

My guess, Ensberg and Woodward are pretty close to locks.  If Betemit ends up as part of starting 1B mix then I could see them squeezing Green on the team if Matsui is actually out to start the year.

I think Gardner will start the season in AAA so he can get consistent playing time while waiting for a need at the big league level.

Also, Justin Christian is basically the same player as Gardner only a few years older.  Unlike Gardner, he needs no more seasoning in the minors but can play the OF just as well and is also a terror on the base paths.  He may even be able to play the infield as he came up as a 2B - which would give the team even more flexibility.

My guess, Ensberg and Woodward are pretty close to locks.

Really?  With Betemit and Ensberg on the team, isn’t Woodward pretty much redundant?  I’d rather have a defense/baserunner 5th outfielder.  Same goes for taking Green if Matsui starts on the DL.

Really?  With Betemit and Ensberg on the team, isn’t Woodward pretty much redundant?

Yeah, I think Woodward is redundant, although the Yankees may not feel Betemit’s middle infield defense is good enough to keep him as the only backup MI.  Based on what I’ve read/heard so far they seem to like Woodward quite a bit, although I could very well be wrong.

I’d rather have a defense/baserunner 5th outfielder.

Seems like Woodward has played some OF, so that may be a role he could fit, although I like IE’s suggestion of Justin Christian if he can play a passable IF.

Woodward has played some OF

Yeah, sure, but you can’t tell me he’s anybody’s idea of a late-inning defensive replacement out there.  He’s also had an OBP above .300 once in the past four years.  I’d be surprised if he projects to hit any better than Lane.

I wouldn’t want Betemit starting at 2B or SS for a couple of weeks in the event of an injury to Jeter or Cano, but they can bring up the former attorney general if that happens.