Monday, March 10, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Chien-Ming Wang
With the position players done and accounted for, it's time to move on to the Yankee pitching. The numbers show that the position players should do their part to make the Yankees a contender, so it's up to the pitching to not hamper that. First up, it's the Yankees likely opening day starter, Chien-Ming Wang.2007
After a solid regular season that saw Wang rank as one of the top 15 starting pitchers in the American League by most measures came a disastrous postseason that was the chief reason the Yankees did not advance out of the ALDS. Unfortunately, this tarnished what was an overall good season and led to many Yankee fans wanting him shipped out for pennies on the dollar because he's teh unclutch.
Wang is the type of player that can't be easily projected. To this point in his career Wang has done three things well. He suppresses HRs, he walks fewer batters than average, and he allows a lower percentage of hits on balls in play than the average. The walk rate is a skill that can't be taken away from him. HRs allowed are normally a function of a pitchers' fly ball percentage, usually around 11%. In his career, Wang is around 7.7%. The league average BABIP is around .304, Wang's career mark is .287. So when you regress HR rate and hit rate towards league average as most projection systems do, Wang gets penalized more than most pitchers. His low K rate doesn't really impact his projections as much as assumed.
Regarding the HR rate, I'm not so sure that we should assume that all fly balls are equal. I don't know if anyone has ever studied the correlation between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting study. Regarding BABIP, there is at least some anecdotal evidence that Wang allows more easily fieldable ground balls, as do most ground ball pitchers.
Wang exceeded his projections pretty significantly in 2007.
| Chien-Ming Wang | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.17 | 29 | 181 | 199 | 91 | 84 | 16 | 48 | 78 | 8 | 8 | 9.9 | 0.8 | 2.4 | 3.9 |
| Actual | 3.70 | 30 | 199 | 199 | 84 | 82 | 9 | 59 | 104 | 23 | 23 | 9.0 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 4.7 |
| Difference | 113% | 105% | 110% | 276% | 276% | 110% | 195% | 89% | 121% |
RSAA: runs saved above average
RSAA/200: RSAA pro-rated to 200 innings
*All differences are on a rate basis except for G and IP. All percentages are set so that a percentage better than 100 means the pitcher was better than expected, and a percentage lower than 100 means they were worse (on a rate basis).
Wang saved 15 runs more than expected compared to average. He allowed 10% fewer hits than expected, 95% fewer HRs than projected and struck out 21% more than expected. His walk rate was 11% worse than projected, which probably goes in hand with him experimenting with more pitches and his improved strikeout rate.
On the surface, Wang's 2007 was a carbon copy of his 2006. 19-6 with a 3.63 ERA vs. 19-7 with a 3.70 ERA. If you look at the numbers in a little more detail there are some differences though, primarily in his splits. I've calcualted the splits below from Retrosheet's play by play data, so they may differ slightly from splits you may see elsewhere.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 429 | 393 | 77 | 25 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 2 | 34 | .285 | .345 | .417 | .762 | .073 | 17% | 25% | 55% | 3% |
| Vs RHB | 389 | 359 | 69 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 6 | 70 | .242 | .301 | .312 | .613 | .080 | 15% | 18% | 63% | 3% |
| Total | 818 | 752 | 146 | 38 | 6 | 9 | 58 | 8 | 104 | .265 | .324 | .367 | .691 | .038 | 16% | 22% | 58% | 3% |
OPS s: OPS sigma
F%: Fly ball %
L%: Line drive %
G%: Groundball %
P%: Popup %
Contrast that to Wang's splits in 2005 and 2006.
| Split | PA | AB | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | HBP | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | OPS s | F% | L% | G% | P% |
| Vs LHB | 625 | 584 | 112 | 32 | 3 | 11 | 40 | 1 | 48 | .271 | .318 | .392 | .711 | .066 | 16% | 16% | 63% | 4% |
| Vs RHB | 737 | 693 | 148 | 29 | 1 | 10 | 37 | 7 | 75 | .271 | .315 | .359 | .674 | .056 | 17% | 15% | 65% | 3% |
| Total | 1362 | 1277 | 260 | 61 | 4 | 21 | 77 | 8 | 123 | .271 | .316 | .374 | .691 | .030 | 16% | 16% | 64% | 4% |
Lefties hit Wang much harder in 2007. Their line drive percentage went from 16% to 25% which led to a higher batting average. In 2005-2006, Wang walked 6.4% of the lefties he faced and struck out 7.7%. In 2007 he walked 7.9% of the lefties he faced and fanned 7.9%. For righties he went from striking out 10.2% in 2005 and 2006 to 18.0% in 2007, with his walk rate going from 5% to 6.2%. These numbers tell me that Wang was making adjustments in 2007, and it'll be interesting to see what that means for 2008.
2008
As Wang continues to perform, the projection systems are starting to fall in line.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 30 | 30 | 189 | 217 | 99 | 91 | 14 | 55 | 96 | 4.33 | 4.02 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 23 |
| marcel | 28 | 28 | 181 | 184 | 81 | 77 | 11 | 53 | 92 | 3.83 | 3.85 | 13 | 31 | 10 | 25 |
| pecota | 29 | 29 | 178 | 200 | 97 | 87 | 14 | 59 | 95 | 4.37 | 4.16 | 2 | 20 | 4 | 19 |
| zips | 30 | 30 | 200 | 213 | 95 | 87 | 13 | 53 | 87 | 3.92 | 3.97 | 12 | 32 | 8 | 26 |
| cairo | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| average | 29 | 29 | 189 | 203 | 92 | 85 | 13 | 55 | 92 | 4.05 | 3.97 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 24 |
The projection systems see Wang around a 4 ERA which would make him about a win better than average, or three wins better than a replacement level starter. Here's his range of CAIRO projections.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 187 | 78 | 75 | 8 | 47 | 98 | 3.42 | 3.42 | 23 | 43 | 20 | 37 |
| 65% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 194 | 82 | 79 | 9 | 50 | 94 | 3.63 | 3.63 | 18 | 38 | 16 | 33 |
| Baseline | 30 | 30 | 197 | 201 | 87 | 84 | 11 | 54 | 89 | 3.84 | 3.84 | 14 | 33 | 11 | 28 |
| 35% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 208 | 92 | 89 | 13 | 58 | 84 | 4.05 | 4.06 | 9 | 29 | 6 | 23 |
| 20% | 30 | 30 | 197 | 215 | 96 | 93 | 14 | 61 | 80 | 4.26 | 4.27 | 5 | 24 | 2 | 19 |
Projection systems are meant to be objective, so they just look at the numbers. Wang's stats belie the quality of his stuff, which we can see if we use Josh Kalk's Pitch F/X tool. Wang's sinker averages 94 mph. That's a dominant pitch, even if it doesn't result in strikeouts. It also seems like Wang is working on refining his slider and changeup which can only help him. It'll be interesting to see if new pitching coach Dave Eiland can help Wang in that regard.
I see Wang somewhere between the 65% and the baseline projection this year, which is basically what he has done to this point in his career.
Value
Wang's in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and lost his case with the Yankees. He'll make $4 million this season which makes him a bargain compared to what teams pay on the free agent market for a marginal win.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.8 | $12,397,876 | $4,000,000 | $8,397,876 |
The Yankees have been hesitant to sign Wang to a long-term deal, which makes sense given his past injury history and the fact that he is difficult to project. If he continues to perform as he has he's probably worth around $10-12 million a season.
Conclusion
I know Wang had a bad postseason, but I'm still a fan. He's probably miscast as a #1 starter when comparing him to the Johan Santana and Jake Peavy class of pitcher, but he's been one of the top fourteen pitchers in the AL the last two years, which by definition makes him a top starter. With Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain up with the team now, Wang may be supplanted as the Yankees' "ace" as soon as this season. Then maybe he'll get credit for being what he is, which is a good solid starter that ANY team in baseball would be glad to have.
Comments
If Wang is one of the top 14 pitchers in the AL doesn’t that, by definition, make him a no. 1 starter? I suppose what people mean is that he may not be an “ace” like Roy Halladay or Johan Santana. As a Yankee, he gives the team a tremendous boost since his low pitch counts often allow him to reach the 8th inning of games - which is invaluable given how thin their bullpen has been over the past two years. Scouts may rave about a guy like Scott Kazmir, but he often comes out of a game in the 5th or 6th inning because his gaudy strikeout numbers cause him to have thrown 110 pitches by then. On the other hand, Wang is somewhat of a liability on turf.
I remember his horrible outings in the ALDS last year, but he was also the only Yankees pitcher who got a win in the ALDS a year before, yes?
It may be misplaced nationalism, but as a half-Taiwanese lady I want to see Wang succeed and am a pretty big fan.
...Also, I know of crazy Taiwanese people who fly all the way to NYC just to see Wang pitch. I’m glad I live in Queens.
I sort of want Pettite to pitch the home opener.
But Pettitte used HGH. Think of the children!
Wang’s age, ability, and tendency to eat up innings make him the most sensible candidate to start the most games for the Yankees this year, thus the most sensible opening-day pitcher.
But should the Yankees start a pitcher named “Wang” on opening day? While preferable to Johnson or Putz that’s still a long way from wholesome. As SG said, “Think of the children!”
I don’t know if anyone has ever studied the correlation between HRs per fly ball and ground ball rate, but it may be an interesting study
I seem to remember reading such a study, or at least its summary. Hardballtimes maybe? No promises, but I’ll see if I can find it.
here it is.
Wang’s age, ability, and tendency to eat up innings make him the most sensible candidate to start the most games for the Yankees this year, thus the most sensible opening-day pitcher.
Sure, I just hope that within the limits of reasonable schedule juggling, Pettite is the first pitcher to don pintripes at Yankee Stadium.
wtf is up with YES not showing Joba’s start tonight?
You’ve got to switch to DirecTV. It’s on the Cincinnati channel.
I just hope that within the limits of reasonable schedule juggling, Pettite is the first pitcher to don pintripes at Yankee Stadium.
The Yankees open the season at home. The season opener and the home opener are the same game. I’m not sure what kind of juggling could alter that fact.
Now, if it really means that much to you, I’m sure that something could be arranged to allow Pettitte to dress an hour earlier than the rest of the pitching staff.
Now, if it really means that much to you, I’m sure that something could be arranged to allow Pettitte to dress an hour earlier than the rest of the pitching staff.
Awesome. I had a similar initial reaction.
The Yankees open the season at home. The season opener and the home opener are the same game. I’m not sure what kind of juggling could alter that fact.
Wow. please ignore all my comments from today.
Except, I did think it was illegal for the Yankees to open a season without a mediocre trip to the west coast. I’m pysched to watch real baseball as soon as possible.
You’ve got to switch to DirecTV. It’s on the Cincinnati channel.
MLB EI showed up on my bill this month but I don’t get this channel ... should I?
IE. Uhh re #6. Nice to see you didn’t leave your splitter in Havana.
in retrospect the Yankees were insanely lucky in 05/06 that they had these 2 B prospect came up and immediately hit their max potential and then some. that’s pretty rare. and if it weren’t for those 2 the Yanks probably had sunk outta the playoffs 2 outta the last 3 season.
over the last 2 season, here is the complete list of AL SPs that out VORPed Wang.
Johan Santana
Roy Halladay
CC Sabathia
John Lackey
that’s it. and that’s some mighty fine company to be in.
To dismiss Wang and Cano as “B prospects” is a bit too simplistic given the inherent difficulty of predicting young players. After all Eric Duncan was at one time considered an A prospect and listed among Baseball America’s Top 100 and is still mired in the minors. Craig Hanson, the supposed jewel of the 2006 draft, was supposed to be major league ready immediately after being drafted but spent all of last year in the minors. On the other hand, Wang was a highly regarded pitcher who induced a bidding war for his services coming out of Taiwan. Before Joba and Hughes came along, he was the only Yankee starter who could consistently hit the mid 90s with his fastball. Let´s not pretend Wang is some sort of soft-tossing weenie right-hander who came out of nowhere to confound everyone’s expectations. Did scouts peg him as a no. 1 starter? No. But that doesn’t make him Matt DeSalvo.
exactly IE. but you still have to give some estimated projections on prospects. and given Wang’s age and inconsistent track record he was a B prospect and given Cano’s also inconsitent and rarely great track record he also was a B prospect. it’s obviously impossible to predict things like Wang suddenly learning a plus plus sinker or Cano is simply a guy that strives in tougher competition though. but at that point in time it was very unrealistic to say 1 is gonna be a top 5 AL SP and the other one is looking like a potential hall of fame career.
I have to agree with RollingWave. There were some who looked on Wang/Cano as LESS than B prospects, but it’s hard to say they were greater. I think that one of the things with Wang and Cano was they had A potential, but there were questions as to whether they could fulfill it, which knocked them down to B’s. Obviously, they have fulfilled (and possibly more) their potential.
I remember seeing Cano in Scranton the year before he came up (he was with the visiting Clippers then), and thought he would be good. He hit a HR to left-center off of a left-handed pitcher (only Ed Yarnell, but still). But I never thought he would be this good.
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