I’m actually rather curious whether the ever cautious Yanks would give the starting RF job to a rookie in 2009.  Obviously, that depends on whether Tabata or Jackson can have big seasons in the minors but if either or both does, I still believe the Yanks would be reluctant to open the season with one of them out there.

I’m assuming Tabata and Jackson will start the year in AA.  If either has a monster first half and then gets to AAA for a couple of months they could see some time in the majors which might make the Yankees willing to use them in 2009. 

If Melky takes a step forward and Brett Gardner shows that he might be playable in CF I could see them shifting Melky to RF and using Gardner in CF too, although the odds of Melky developing enough for his bat to play in RF and Gardner developing enough to be passable offensively aren’t that good I don’t think.

Vlad Guerrero is a free agent after this year right now, although I’d think the Angels will keep him.  The only other free agent RF that might be a decent stopgap is Juan Rivera.

If Melky takes a stop forward, then he becomes an ideal CF, given his defense, no?  As for Tabata or Jackson seeing time in the majors in 2009, I believe it would require an injury of some sort.  Otherwise, between Abreu, Damon, Melky and Matsui, the Yankee outfield is more or less set.  As for Gardner, his speed and defense makes him an ideal 4th/5th OF, but the same can be said for Justin Christian.  After all, Gardner, at 24, could probably use another half season in AAA of playing everyday before graduating to the bench.  Christian has a similar skill set and is 26, I believe.  If the Yanks keep 12 pitchers, that allows for four bench players, which will most likely be 1. Molina 2. Betemit 3. Shelley Duncan and 4. whomever impresses Girardi most in ST

If Melky takes a stop forward, then he becomes an ideal CF, given his defense, no?

Sure, although they could shift him to RF if they think that Gardner’s a better defender and they don’t want to make a trade or sign a free agent.

Otherwise, between Abreu, Damon, Melky and Matsui, the Yankee outfield is more or less set. 

Abreu’s a free agent, I’m not sure he’ll be back.  Again, I’m talking about 2009, not 2008. Odds are Giambi will be gone which could make Matsui the primary DH, so there’s a spot in the OF.

“Abreu supposedly reported to camp out of shape”

SG, wasn’t this less ‘supposedly’ than ‘admittedly?’

Interesting stuff.  The lay consensus on the power drop, as I recall, was that he had some psychological hangover from winning the HR contest in the all star game.  Given that a mid-career power drop is an unusual trajectory, is there any historical reason to hope that it might be temporary, that his power might return?

I think it’s unlikely that Damon, Matsui, and Abreu will all be on the Yankees in 2009. There is a decent chance that A-Jack or even Tabata will be ready by next season. If it’s A-Jack, as SG said, I can see Melky shifting to RF as a placeholder or being traded in a package to upgrade the position.

The Yankees could have interest in Adam Dunn, who will be a FA after the season, although I’m not sure if they would play him in the OF or try him at 1B.

I wouldn’t count on Jackson, who just turned 21 or Tabata, who is 19, being ready to start at the ML level next season.  Both will be playing their first seasons above high A ball in September.  Even if the Yanks were willing to begin 2009 with an “unproven” player in the outfield, would they have the patience, as Baltimore did with Nick Markakis, to let him struggle for two months before finding his comfort level?  I don’t know. 

By the way, I believe Damon and Matsui will both be on the roster next season but Abreu, most likely, will not be, unless he’s amenable to a one year deal.

For my two-cents…it is much, MUCH too soon to be worried about the 2009 outfield.  I’m sure even Cashman - whose (who’s?  come on English teachers!) job it is to look ahead - isn’t looking ahead too much.  How well Melky, Abreu (if he is worth bringing back) Jackson, Tabata, Gardner, and a few others in the organization play will go a long way towards determining Yankee’s needs.

Who knows?  This could be one of those years where 3 guys in the OF go down with injuries at the same time, and AJax is called up in May and shines.  Or everyone - including all the minor-leaguers - could suck and the Yankees could be looking for three outfielders this winter.

For the record, it’s whose.  Who’s=who is, whose is possessive.

And of course it’s much too soon to be worried about the 2009 outfield.  That’s why it’s so much fun to speculate.  It’s interesting that Yankee fans now look forward to the future with an eye on who is coming up from the minors rather than the upcoming FA class - although there are probably some who are looking forward to signing Teixeira.

SG, wasn’t this less ‘supposedly’ than ‘admittedly?’

Yeah, although I am sure Abreu would say this anyway to write off what was a disappointing season and help in his contract negotiations.

Given that a mid-career power drop is an unusual trajectory, is there any historical reason to hope that it might be temporary, that his power might return?

Interesting question.  I’ll mess around with the Lahman database when I get a chance and see if there is.

“whose (who’s?  come on English teachers!)”
Is that a question, Mike?  It’s “whose.”  Can’t be “who’s” unless you could substitute “who is.”

I’m not certain as to how admitting to arriving to camp out of shape would help Abreu’s (or anyone else’s) contract negotiations.  Obviously, Abreu could claim that his talent level is still there as a mid 30 year old player because his poor start was due to portliness rather than diminishing ability.  On the other hand, questions about a guy’s work ethic definitely influence prospective deals.  That’s one reason the press greatly undervalues A-Rod’s work ethic.  Not only is the guy a star, but he works harder than anyone on the team and never, ever shows up out of shape - even though he has the biggest contract of anyone.  Obviously, he says all manner of dumb things to the press, but the fact that Cano and Melky now work out with A-Rod is a huge help to the team.

Another reason to let Abreu walk would be to reap the draft picks, which has become a big priority for Cash, assuming he stays.

On the other hand, Abreu may very well be a type B rather a type A, unless he hits his 65% projection.

IE, hasn’t Abreu been remarkably consistent, and remarkably consistently good, up until that point?  Even if he admits to coming into last year’s ST out of shape, he would seem to be in a position to prove that to have been a one-time aberration.

I’m not certain as to how admitting to arriving to camp out of shape would help Abreu’s (or anyone else’s) contract negotiations.  Obviously, Abreu could claim that his talent level is still there as a mid 30 year old player because his poor start was due to portliness rather than diminishing ability.  On the other hand, questions about a guy’s work ethic definitely influence prospective deals.

But you can fix work ethic.  You can’t fix diminishing talent.

“But you can fix work ethic.”

E.g., all the rave reviews of Abreu’s shape coming into the current ST.

On the other hand, Abreu may very well be a type B rather a type A, unless he hits his 65% projection.

If reporting to camp out of shape last year caused him to be susceptible to the oblique strain, which then negatively impacted his Pre-AS split, as I think is likely, he should hit the 65% split.

Thanks to IE and Wombat Pete.  I was pretty sure it would be “whose”, but once in a while you stop and question, “if everywhere else in the English language it is this way…”.

I don’t mind speculating about the future, and it is fun.  But sometimes I think we get a little far afield.  When we’re going past how well a particular player will do, and instead are reconstructing the entire OF, for example.

And I agree with those about questioning Abreu’s work-ethic; you can fix it, you can explain it away as an aberration, etc.  But if the talent is just going away, it is gone.

BTW (and totally unrelated), I’m excited that on Friday I got my “farewell tour” tickets to the stadium.  Lower-level, just (relatively) to the left of the RF foul-pole.  Hoping to have a chance for a few home-runs there.

I don’t mind speculating about the future, and it is fun.  But sometimes I think we get a little far afield.

It’s too uncertain to think too far ahead too, even with free agents.  I remember someone posting about he would sign Santana and Peavy in 2009 and let Mo and Po walk this year.  Now with Santana and Peavy unavailable, that seems pretty silly.

For me, the main thing about Abreu is he needs to lift his OBP back up above .400.  Hitting for more power would obviously be nice, and in Yankee stadium, as a lefty, that should be within the realm of possibility, but if he, Jeter and Damon can average a .380 OBP between them, the Yanks will score bushels of runs.

Looking how the deep the organzation is right now… there’s going to be a real big trade either this year or the next. Though with the Santana deal falling through, who knows?

I wouldn’t be sure about that.  After all, given the age of the Yanks’ position players, they are going to need guys like Montero, Tabata, Austin Jackson and others.  Obviously, the organization will have some spare pitching, but a few key injuries could make Cashman reluctant to deal many of the team’s arms either.

I was surprised that even Abreu’s PROJECTION for last year seemed modest to me.  I guess I reflexively think of him as a 900 OPS guy, although obviously I shouldn’t.  Still, he did do well after May…seems like another “fingers crossed for the 65” projection to me.

Regarding a trade—

What would the Yankees trade for?  The only thing I can think of is starting pitching, maybe, but isn’t that the point of the SP depth in the minors?  I’m not, like, psyched about seeing more of Chase Wright; but then, I wasn’t psyched about more Melky in 2006, either.  Plus there are new prospects to rush from AA, like Steven White.

If I’m Cashman, things would have to get pretty dire to want to swing a trade.  I’m thinking like Hughes hurt—Kennedy poor—Moose cooked dire.  In which case I think you have to swallow hard and go for maybe Harden.  I know he’s hurt a lot, but he’s good when healthy, and he’s available.

And finally—

SG, do you plan to put together all the baseline projections in one number for the team?

I should have said “what would they trade for THIS YEAR”.

“On the other hand, Abreu may very well be a type B rather a type A, unless he hits his 65% projection.”

I wonder if he’ll go to arbitration if there is the draft pick angle.  He’s certainly young enough to want another big pay day.  But his best big pay day chance might be arbitration too. 

I’m going to go with the Yankees overpaying him because Bobby is a WS winning hero.

do you plan to put together all the baseline projections in one number for the team?
Yep, I’ll do Matsui and then the possible bench guys next then look at the position players’ projections in total before moving onto the pitchers.

Speaking of the bench players, I am rather optimistic about Betemit.  He seems to have slimmed down (like the rest of the chubby Yanks) and will provide decent offense off the bench on days when A-Rod or Jeter need a breather of as part of a 1B platoon.  Cashman definitely deserves kudos for trading Proctor, who is basically an interchangeable bullpen part, for him.

Can anyone explain the presence of Jason Lane to me?

On the other hand, Abreu may very well be a type B rather a type A, unless he hits his 65% projection.

Abreu was 7th among AL OF and 1B in the Elias rankings for 2006/2007.  The cut line was JD Drew at 23.  The workings of these rankings are shrouded in mystery, but just eyeballing things it looks like that baseline projection would put Abreu right on the A/B bubble.  The 65% projection would probably make him one of the highest ranked FAs on the market.

Can anyone explain the presence of Jason Lane to me?

Why does a non-roster invite need an explanation?  He’s fifth/sixth outfielder insurance.

i assume Lane will play the OF in Scranton and be on call in case of injury.

he has a career OPS+ of 97 and can play all 3 OF positions.

this does not make him a star, but it makes him a real life major leaguer in case of more than one injury. 

imagine the difference between having a Jason Lane when you were playing Bubba Crosby or worse, Tony Womack.

in other words, he is no cost insurance.

MC, you’re a very, very tough audience!
I think Rob in CT means: there are far too many guys going for those positions and this guy seems the least promising and is my least favorite and why is he taking up at-bats?
Rob in CT, correct me if I have that wrong!

This comes with the obvious caveat that one shouldn’t read too much into ST games, but given the fact Mussina is getting crushed today, if he continues on that track during the season, should the Yanks consider putting Joba into the rotation earlier than planned or would they try a Horne or Marquez first?  Obviously, Mussina will be given 4-5 starts regardless, but if he’s sporting a 5.50 ERA after April, I wonder what the Yanks’ brass will opt for.

By the way, Ensberg looks like he can still hit.

Wombat: close.  It’s more that he’s the one I look at and go “what, exactly, is the team thinking here?”  Is it b/c of his 2005?  I guess the chance of recapturing some of that is worth a non-roster invite.

I’m vaguely worried he will continue to hit in ST, gain a roster spot, and suck horribly.  But as has been pointed out, there is some upside here and that alone >>> Bubba Crosby, et al.

RLYW just had it’s first 500 error of the year!

“RLYW just had it’s first 500 error of the year!”

???

given the fact Mussina is getting crushed today, if he continues on that track during the season, should the Yanks consider putting Joba into the rotation earlier than planned or would they try a Horne or Marquez first?

Some combination of Karstens, Wright, White, Igawa, and maybe Ohlendorf would probably get some starts before they’d go to Horne or Marquez, or burn up too many of Chamberlain’s limited innings.

I’m a little confused about Rasner’s status.  He’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s out of options.  Does that mean that he can start the season in the minors, but once he’s brought up he’d have to clear waivers to be sent back down?

I have to disagree MC.  Starting Chase Wright or Igawa would be basically giving a game away.  Steven White has never pitched in a ML game before and has lesser stuff than either Marquez or Horne.  Karstens has a poor track record and may make the team as a long man.  And Ohlendorf is now a reliever.  If it’s a month or so into the season and Horne and Marquez have 3-4 good AAA starts under their belt, I believe either would give the team a much better chance to win.

“first 500 error”

Wombat Pete, during game threads when a lot of people post, the site crashes and you get an “error 500” message.

It is troubling that one should have appeared at this time…

Ah, thank you, fgasparini.

Actually, fgas, I experienced the dreaded 500 error last week but didn’t want to ruin the general fun.

IE—so did I, but ditto…

Hey SG—we’re getting error 500s heah!

Back when Old Thurman Fan was Young Thurman Fan, I bet they called them Error 5’s.  ‘Cause like they only had a few errors in olden days.

Yes, but even still, the website-adjusted Error+ for 2007 was 168.

SG,

I have a few questions?  First you point out his much lower then expected walk rate.  I wonder how it breaks down against lefties/righties for the time periods you show.  Also and this is big for me as Abreu had an OPS of .678 against lefties for the season, so do you know his OPS’s splits for the time periods you mention?  I am asking this to see if his OPS’s and walk rate improved when he seemed healthy and if not against lefties, is Abreu nothing more then a platoon player going forward as I fear?  He has no power what so ever against lefties last year.

dan661, you should be able to get a lot of that from baseballreference.com

If Shelley Duncan can play a passable RF, Abreu’s less than stellar platoon split shouldn’t be much of an issue.  I suppose Jason Lane may have been invited to camp for that reason as well.

the OF situation would depend a lot on how things shake out this year. I wouldn’t really put too much thought on it yet.

I point out though that guys like Jackson dont typically play like a star from the get go . they typically see some struggle early in their major league career. and if Jackson starts his age 22 season in the majors I think there’s a BIG chance that he won’t be significantly better than Cabrera 06/07 for a year or two. so that’s something to consider. espically depth wise you probably want to make sure you bench OF optiosn are very strong at that point

also, Vlad still has a option for 09. unless he suffers a huge injury or completely fall off the face of the earth i don’t see why the Angels won’t use it.

With regards to the outfield in 2009 and beyond:

- Melky needs to shows if he’s going to grow into a Abreu/Matsui (even Abreu/Matsui lite) offensive player.. AND..
- Gardner, Jackson or Tabata have to develop enough to make it at the big league level (think Melky circa 2006) by 2009. You can probably even throw Shelley Duncan into the mix here.
- Damon has to show he can hold down LF, offensively and defensively.

Giambi goes to another team, Matsui to DH, leaving one spot open in the OF in 2009. If Melky isn’t good enough AND one of those 4 can’t be expected to be out there all year, the Yankees are going to have to sign someone else.

Abreu as an arbitation case isn’t a bad result, as it bridges 1 more year to Jackson/Tabata.  By then, the team is totally different, as Matsui and Damon are also gone, and Cashman (or whoever) can rework the roster however he wants.

The other exciting thing going on here is that if these guys live up to what we’re hoping from them (Hughes, Chamberlain, IPK, Tabata, Jackson) and you have guys not going anywhere like ARod, Cano, Cabrera, AND we continue to draft well, then sooner or later we’re going to end up with a hot commodity who is blocked and Cashman can really start filling in the holes cheaply.

we’re getting error 500s heah!

We’re in mid-season form just like the Moose.

First you point out his much lower then expected walk rate.  I wonder how it breaks down against lefties/righties for the time periods you show.  Also and this is big for me as Abreu had an OPS of .678 against lefties for the season, so do you know his OPS’s splits for the time periods you mention?

<u>4/2 - 5/29</u>
VsR:.236/.335/.293 BB/PA:.122
VsL:.211/.254/.281 BB/PA:.063
         
<u>6/1+</u>
VsR:.313/.402/.557 BB/PA:.130
VsL:.297/.379/.396 BB/PA:.117

Abreu typically loses all his power against lefties, so his splits after 6/1 are about right where he has been during his career (.276/.372/.394).  A .372 OBP is still respectable but the Yankees should probably look at platooning him at least part of the time.

SG,

Thank you for putting those numbers up so fast lmas!  The after 6/1 splits against lefties are not as poor as I suspected but even so platooning him against the tougher ones should be given serious thought.  What the numbers do show is, there in no way he should bat against a lefty if slumping!  At least slumping against a righty he has a chance to walk.

Abreu’s real value is in his ability to walk and that is still much lower in the AL then NL.  I wonder why that is?  Do AL pitchers just come after him?  I thought that Cano should bat third but now I think Cano’s ability to get a hit per PA is better served batting 5th.  Abreu walking and not slumping batting third works but slumping bench him at least against lefties.

Starting Chase Wright or Igawa would be basically giving a game away.  Steven White has never pitched in a ML game before and has lesser stuff than either Marquez or Horne.  Karstens has a poor track record and may make the team as a long man.  And Ohlendorf is now a reliever.  If it’s a month or so into the season and Horne and Marquez have 3-4 good AAA starts under their belt, I believe either would give the team a much better chance to win.

I didn’t say that starting those guys instead of Horne or Marquez would be a good idea, IE, just that I think it’s likely to happen.  They didn’t rush Kennedy or Chamberlain up for emergency starts with all the injuries last season.  They brought Wright up from AA instead.  They also gave starts to Matt DeSalvo and Tyler Clippard and even Sean Henn, despite fairly abysmal results.  I suspect that they will be similarly cautious with the more valuable pitching prospects this time around.

As for Karstens, he had 15 lousy innings and a freak injury last season, after 50 pretty effective innings the year before.  That’s a poor track record?  Besides, why can’t a long reliever make a spot start?

Abreu’s real value is in his ability to walk and that is still much lower in the AL then NL.  I wonder why that is?  Do AL pitchers just come after him?

It might have something to do with who he’s hitting in front of.

Thank you for linking to Bill’s site at the end.  I hope you all check it out.  Here is an article from the newspaper about his condition:  http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2008/03/117_20066.html

MC in VA,

That is some thought there that Abreu walks less because he hits in front of Arod!  If that is really the reason and one has to look at past players who hit in front of Arod to see what kind of effect Arod actually has.  Say it really is true that Abreu walks less batting third because of Arod then do you change him in the lineup?  I am sure having him increase his walk percentage by 20% would be to valuable to waste?

This is interesting to me in that if Bobby can walk more batting in a different spot do you move him? I think yes if you believe he will got on base 20+ more times.  Maybe the best lineup is Abreu, Jeter, Damon, Arod, Cano, Posada and the rest.  If Abreu first allows him to walk more then his value is much higher.

There is no way in hell Abreu and and Damon are getting switched in the lineup.  According to mainstream baseball wisdom, Damon is a “true leadoff hitter” while Abreu is an “RBI guy”.  Girardi might be less beholden to such “thinking” than Torre, but he’s not THAT less beholden.  That said, posters on this site and others have been pointing out for some time that Jeter and Abreu make more sense statistically as the 1st batter of the game than Damon does. 

But if you take Abreu out of the 3 hole because he walks less there, then isn’t the new #3 hitter going to walk less there?  Well, how about we bat Cano 3rd, as a percentage drop-off in walks for him would mean a smaller number of non-walks.  But then, don’t you want your pre-Arod hitter to be someone who takes advantage of this (supposed) increase in strikes?  (I’d like to see evidence.)  Cano swings at (and gets hits off of) pitches off the plate all the time anyway.

Also, Torre batted Cano 3rd once, Cano had a bad game, so Joe, in his infinite wisdom, decided Cano couldn’t handle it.