Tuesday, March 11, 2008
Looking Ahead to 2008 - Andy Pettitte
It's been a tumultous offseason for Andy Pettitte, who has had to deal with being named in the Mitchell report as well as with the Roger Clemens/Brian McNamee soap opera. Pettitte initially declined his 2008 player option but decided to re-up with the Yankees the day before the report came out. The timing could be looked at as suspicious, but when Pettitte decided to come back the Yankees had less need to pursue Johan Santana. With Phil Hughes looking like every bit the phenom he was hyped to be in 2005-2006, that may turn out to be even more important than whatever Pettitte gives the Yankees this year. Incidentally, the Yankees drafted Hughes with the compenation pick they got for Pettitte leaving for the Astros. Everything under the sun is in tune...2007
Pettitte had a solid season overall for the Yankees in 2007, with some good luck in the early part of the season. Here are Pettitte's stats through June 14:
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 14 | 4 | 4 | 92.0 | 91 | 5 | 35 | 30 | 50 | 26 | 377 | 62.6% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 31.5% | 51.7% | 16.8% | 2.93 | 3.42 | 3.67 | 4.39 | 0.05 | 2.5 | 4.9 | 15.3 | .295 |
FB%: Fly ball %
GB%: Ground ball %
LD%: Line drive %
FIP: Fielding independent pitching
xFIP: Expected FIP (uses FB x .11 instead of HRs)
HR/FB: HRs per fly ball
RSAA: Runs saved above average
Pettitte had a 2.93 ERA, but he had given up five unearned runs and he had a FIP of 3.67. Then came a five game stretch where Pettitte was inexplicably bad.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 26.0 | 42 | 3 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 9 | 123 | 62.3% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 34.7% | 41.1% | 24.2% | 9.00 | 9.35 | 4.51 | 4.82 | 0.09 | 3.1 | 5.5 | -12.8 | .411 |
Pettitte's K rate actually went up, but he was killed on balls in play, allowing a BABIP of .411. His ERA was almost double his FIP. Pettite was not really unlucky, his line drive percentage shot up from 16.8% through June 14 to 24.2%. A LD% of 24.2% corresponds with an expected BABIP of .362. Pettitte was getting hit, and getting hit hard.
As most things small sample, this turned out to be a blip. Pettitte finished the season fairly well, looking at his line post All Star Break.
| GS | W | L | IP | H | HR | R | ER | SO | BB | TBF | Stk% |
| 15 | 10 | 3 | 97.3 | 105 | 8 | 44 | 41 | 75 | 34 | 416 | 62.5% |
| FB% | GB% | LD% | ERA | RA | FIP | xFIP | HR/FB | BB/9 | K/9 | RSAA | BABIP |
| 33.8% | 45.9% | 20.3% | 3.79 | 4.07 | 3.78 | 4.22 | 0.08 | 3.1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | .318 |
Pettitte's peripherals were basically in line with his pitching over the rest of the season, as he improved his K rate and went 10-3 over his final 15 starts.
Pettitte basically matched his projections in 2007.
| Andy Pettitte | ERA | G | IP | Hit | R | ER | HR | BB | K | RSAA | RSAA/200 | H/9 | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 |
| Avg Proj | 4.11 | 31 | 189 | 199 | 95 | 86 | 22 | 53 | 139 | 9 | 9 | 9.5 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 6.6 |
| Actual | 4.05 | 36 | 215 | 238 | 106 | 97 | 16 | 69 | 141 | 10 | 9 | 9.9 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 5.9 |
| Difference | 101% | 116% | 114% | 99% | 83% | 95% | 159% | 88% | 89% |
Although Pettitte was better in ERA than projected, most of his peripherals were worse. He was more hittable, had a higher walk rate, and struck out fewer hitters. He did prevent HRs at a better rate than expected which helped mitigate that.
2008
It's hard to believe but Pettitte will turn 36 this year. Despite his whirlwind offseason he appears to be healthy and in good shape so far this spring. Here's how he projects for 2008.
| Projection | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| chone | 34 | 32 | 199 | 227 | 109 | 101 | 20 | 66 | 132 | 4.57 | 4.17 | -2 | 18 | 4 | 21 |
| marcel | 33 | 30 | 188 | 205 | 94 | 85 | 18 | 59 | 135 | 4.07 | 3.95 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 24 |
| pecota | 28 | 28 | 176 | 187 | 90 | 83 | 18 | 60 | 117 | 4.22 | 4.25 | 5 | 22 | 2 | 17 |
| zips | 35 | 33 | 213 | 228 | 105 | 96 | 20 | 62 | 141 | 4.06 | 3.97 | 10 | 31 | 9 | 27 |
| cairo | 35 | 34 | 213 | 242 | 113 | 102 | 20 | 60 | 153 | 4.31 | 3.83 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 30 |
| average | 33 | 32 | 198 | 218 | 102 | 93 | 19 | 61 | 136 | 4.25 | 4.03 | 5 | 25 | 7 | 24 |
RSAA: Runs saved above average
RSAR: Runs saved above replacement
FRSAA: FIP runs saved above average
FRSAR: FIP runs saved above replacement
The projection systems see Pettite anywhere from 17 to 30 runs above a replacement pitcher in 2008, with an ERA in the low to mid 4 area. Here's how his range of CAIRO projections shape up.
| CAIRO % | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA | FIP | RSAA | RSAR | FRSAA | FRSAR |
| 80% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 226 | 102 | 92 | 16 | 52 | 165 | 3.88 | 3.33 | 14 | 35 | 24 | 42 |
| 65% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 234 | 108 | 97 | 18 | 56 | 159 | 4.10 | 3.58 | 9 | 30 | 18 | 36 |
| Baseline | 35 | 34 | 213 | 242 | 113 | 102 | 20 | 60 | 153 | 4.31 | 3.83 | 4 | 25 | 12 | 30 |
| 35% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 250 | 118 | 107 | 22 | 64 | 147 | 4.52 | 4.08 | -1 | 20 | 6 | 25 |
| 20% | 35 | 34 | 213 | 258 | 124 | 112 | 24 | 68 | 141 | 4.74 | 4.33 | -6 | 15 | 1 | 19 |
I think the baseline is about right. Pettitte's hittable but he does pretty well with two thing that allow him to outperform his peripherals. He has a good pickoff move at first and he is able to induce double plays. His left elbow is always going to be a little bit of of a concern, but he's thrown 222.3, 214.3 and 215.3 innings the last three seasons.
Value
Pettitte will make $16 million in 2008.
| Proj WAR | Proj Value | Salary | Difference |
| 2.4 | $10,788,543 | $16,000,000 | -$5,211,457 |
Based on his projections and the cost of a marginal win on the free agent market, Pettitte's overpaid. If he hits his 65% projection he'll be paid right around what he's worth. Again, it's worth mentioning that Pettitte returning may have saved Phil Hughes and also may have saved the Yankees from the risk of overpaying for a potentially declining Johan Santana.
Conclusion
Pettitte won his 200th game last year. The odds of him making it to 300 are slim, but he's put together a very solid career. He's not a Hall of Famer in my mind, only his 1997 and 2005 seasons strike me as HOF quality seasons, but he's been a workhorse throughout his career while giving his team above average innings.
As far as the HGH issue, I'd wager a large amount of money that more people than appeared in the woefully incomplete Mitchell report used PEDs. It's my opinion that the people named in the report are being scapegoated by the owners as they continue to find ways to try and suppress player salaries and break the MLBPA. I just can't get that worked up about Pettitte being named in what I think is a dog and pony show.
Comments
In addition, the Yanks are certainly being scapegoated on the PED issue - feeding the idea for all those who believe the team represents “all that is wrong with baseball.” Strange then, that everyone turns out to see the Yanks at visiting ballparks. Perhaps they leave the kids at home.
Great work again SG. Do you think Pettite was lucky with his HR/FB last year, leading to a better than expected performance (comparing to his peripherals), or do you believe that he can, like you suggested CMW can, better avoid the HRs?
Also, this might be a bug, but I don’t understand how he was projected to have a 9 RSAA/200, actually had a 9 RSAA/200, and the second number was somehow 83% of the first.
...but the sun is eclipsed by the moon.
Down here in the hinterlands, I don’t see all this scapegoating on PEDs that you guys are talking about. The Mitchell Report is just not getting that much play any more. It’d be pretty tough for the Baltimore papers, for example, to rake Pettitte over the coals while trying to portray Brian Roberts as unfairly victimized by Mitchell and MLB. And I don’t know too many baseball fans who don’t realize that the 80 or so players named in the report represent just the tip of the PED iceberg.
Do you think Pettite was lucky with his HR/FB last year, leading to a better than expected performance (comparing to his peripherals), or do you believe that he can, like you suggested CMW can, better avoid the HRs?
The numbers say he was probably lucky, since his HR/FB rate fluctuates from year to year:
2002: 4.5%
2003: 12.4%
2004: 13.6%
2005: 9.8%
2006: 14.4%
2007: 7.0%
Career: 10.0%
He’ll probably give up more HRs this year, but may have better luck on balls in play to off-set that.
Also, this might be a bug, but I don’t understand how he was projected to have a 9 RSAA/200, actually had a 9 RSAA/200, and the second number was somehow 83% of the first.
Yep, it’s a bug. It should be 99% (rounding precision difference).
I don’t see all this scapegoating on PEDs that you guys are talking about.
I don’t think the Yankees are being scapegoated, but I do think the players are. They took the brunt of the blame even though the owners and management were at least partially culpable IMO. Of course, when the people who are partially culpable get to appoint the investigator, they’re bound to get the benefit of the doubt.
Everything under the sun is in tune
Woh, a Pink Floyd reference.
The Cairo baseline looks exactly like what I’d expect from Pettitte this year.
The elbow thing is a concern especially since the Yankees will be limiting innings for Hughes, Kennedy and, if he starts, Chamberlain. This means that guys like Wang and Pettitte will be forced to preserve the bullpen and go further into games. Even though Pettitte has topped 200 innings the last three years, I’m nervous about his elbow holding up to a possible increased workload.
What’ll be interesting to see is what the Yankees will do with Pettitte after this season is up. He’ll be entering his age 37 season, and if Hughes and/or Chamberlain can’t be a the second part of a dominant 1-2 punch with Wang, you’ve got to at least think the Yankees will kick the tires on Sabathia. How Kennedy pitches will impact that as well.. as to whether or not you’d want him or Pettite in the rotation.
Hall of Fame or not Pettite is a money pitcher.He certainly pitched well enough in the playoffs last year to convice me he will be good for the next two years.That being said I heard Cleveland will be trying to lock Sabathia for the long haul.I would if I were them .I still think the Yanks will need one more proven starter for the next couple of years.The best offseason acquisition goes to the Mariners. Bedard is the pitcher I really think could be a perfect fit for the Yankees down the road.we will need at least one lefty as time goes on even Willis would have been nice.OH well.
mike- I doubt you’ll think Willis would have been nice when you see him get destroyed in the AL.
Stupid question…Why is Carl Pavano in the dugout? It just seems ridiculous to me that he has not been completely outcasted and/or stoned by the yankee bench.
He certainly pitched well enough in the playoffs last year to convice me he will be good for the next two years.
One good October start convinced you that his elbow won’t blow up in the next two years? Interesting. And as for being a money pitcher, Pettitte has certainly pitched some huge games for the Yankees over the years, but he’s also thrown his share of clunkers. He’s pitched just about one full regular season’s worth of post-season baseball, and the numbers are remarkably similar to his regular season averages. That’s pretty good, of course, considering that he was pitching against playoff teams, but it’s not like he’s been Christy Matthewson in the 1905 world series or anything.
Why is Carl Pavano in the dugout?
<sarcasm>I believe he has a contractual obligation of some kind.</sarcasm> Given that he is physically unable to pitch, I imagine that management would send him home if his presence really bothered the rest of the players that much. As bad as his history with the team is, he really did have Tommy John surgery last June. It doesn’t seem too likely that he faked the need for a ligament replacement.
I like Andy Pettitte a lot, and I loved his playoff start this past October (talk about dancing through the raindrops! Leadoff man on in EVERY inning! Pins and Needles!). That said, I’m always going to worry about his elbow, and he’s not actually anything special in the playoffs. For every great performance, there has been a bad one. I have this argument once per year with a close friend:
Him: Pettitte is money in the playoffs! Mussina sucks.
Me: Dude, Mussina has out-pitched Pettitte. In the playoffs.
Him: Bah. Gimme Pettitte any day.
Me: Then you would loose. By the way, did you watch game 7 in ‘03?
Obviously, now, AP > Moose. Moose is older, and close to done. That’s another thing.
I don’t know who started this whole “Generation Trey” thing re: Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. But they are really pushing it in the papers and even Kay is giving it airtime. He’s said it about 3 times now while interviewing Girardi during the game.
I particularly liked Moose against the Tigers as well.
I didn’t realize how linked Pettitte and Hughes were. I mean, I knew that Pettitte re-signing had a lot to do with the Yanks’ cooling on Santana, but I had forgotten that Hughes was who they took with the compensation pick for Pettitte. Nice.
Generation Trey? Ugh. Michael Kay? UGH. Fitting.
“I particularly liked Moose against the Tigers as well.”
Did you enjoy game 6 of the 2001 World Series?
We can cherry pick particular games pro and con for each pitcher. On balance, Moose has been better. They’ve both been good. I’m glad we have Pettitte.
generation trey is the worst nickname i’ve ever heard. i bet danny aiello came up with it.
that espn commercial where they refer to the celtics big 3 as the boston three party tickles me though.
it’s bugging me. what the hell does it even mean. generation tre? come on man so lame.
Last year, I predicted he would have a 4.20ish ERA as he jumped from the NL back to the AL East. I was pleasantly surprised.
This year, I will hope for the 65% CAIRO line. A 4.10 ERA seems pretty good to me. Ultimately, I think it’ll be somewhere in between the Baseline and 65% line.
Incidentally, I have just a bit shameless plugging to do. I am doing community projections for various Yankees. If anyone wants to guess at Cano’s 2008 numbers, please do so at my blog. jeteupthemiddle.blogspot.com
SG is really dropping the ball. Who cares about Andy’s projections? I want to see the CAIRO for Billy Crystal! Mr Saturday Night deserves a projection!
Let’s see, the worst projection I have for any non-pitcher is Joel Roa, who projects to hit .173/.216/.253. Figure Crystal will be around there.
Crystal turns 60 on Friday. I’d like to wish him a very happy birthday, but I have to say that there’s about as much chance of him hitting .173 in the show as there is of you or me hitting .350. Garth Brooks got something like 50 PA in spring training a few years back, and managed exactly two hits. And Brooks was a helluva lot younger and an infinitely better athlete than Crystal.
SG is really dropping the ball. Who cares about Andy’s projections? I want to see the CAIRO for Billy Crystal!
Some pie charts would be nice too.
And more cow bell.
After and during the magic show Andy threw against the Tribe last fall I promised never to question his guts or skill again. I swore on Thurms locker.
I am a man of my oaths…...........
Game 6 2001 may have been the least favorite game I have ever watched. I was very close to needing the strength and love that only your Ma can bring you when you are 6 and your world is falling apart.
Certain games in 10/04 did not upset me as much.
There. I didn’t dis any one.
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