I had someone tell me “I heard the Yankees are sucking this year.” It’s getting to the point where I need to start pretending I don’t speak English or I might go on a murderous rampage.

Keeping the Melky v. Gardner thread alive… with the exception of polar opposite performances in April 2008, anyone notice that Good Melky and Good Cano seem to show up at the same time? We know they’re friends, so much so that they spend a lot of time together outside of the ballpark (and I think they lived together at some point but I may be mistaken.) Is it possible that a lackadaisical attitude gripped them both in 2008, and that fire that we were talking about is driving them in 2009? Obviously Melky needs more than a handful of PA’s to prove something, but the look on his face after he hit the walk off HR was on the order of “Brett who? I’m the CF on this team.”

You all hate Hunter, huh. His dad is the Yankee CF, what’s your dad, an accountant?

j, I’m too lazy to look it up now, but I’m pretty sure sometime during the Melky trade rumors I looked it up, and Cano had a higher OPS while Melky was in the minors last year. But it still wasn’t anything good.

After splitting with Cleveland, the Yankees were about 0.8 wins behind where they should have been.

I confuse.  After the Indians split, weren’t the Yankees .4 wins behind their expected wins?

You all hate Hunter, huh. His dad is the Yankee CF, what’s your dad, an accountant?

Did you take offense to this comment from the other day because you’re dad is an accountant? Or you’re an accountant? I’m confused.

Give me the best player in CF. The name is irrelevant.

Log5 says that the Yankees should go 1.4-1.6 in Boston, which basically means as long as they take 1 of 3 they will remain on their expected pace for 95 wins.

Aim high! screw the pace!

villainx and I posted at the exact same time in #2/#3.

Melky showed a degree of plate discipline in his first full season in MLB (ISO D = .080) that led me to believe that he might have a fairly high ceiling. Unfortunately, it declined in 2007 (.054), even though his OPS was around .840 from May 1st - September 1st, and it continued to decline in 2008 (.052).

Anyway, I’d start him in CF for the foreseeable future.

I confuse.  After the Indians split, weren’t the Yankees .4 wins behind their expected wins?

Yeah, I read the wrong line.  They were 0.8 wins behind before taking the last game of the Indians series.

Did you take offense to this comment from the other day because you’re dad is an accountant? Or you’re an accountant? I’m confused.

Just giving you props for a good internet bit. I’m not above repetition and copycatting either.

If the NYS really turns out to be a launching pad, does that have any impact on the team’s W-L projection? Fly balls that should be outs turn into HRs—pitchers have to throw more pitches in fewer innings—more innings by the weaker relievers—overall taxing of the bullpen over the course of the season. Is there any way to adjust the projections to account for that? Just wondering.

Sorry, I didn’t know we were moving the Melky vs. Gardner discussion over here.  I’ll repost my reply.

I would love for Melky to take the job from Gardner because I just love his arm in CF, however I also recall that he was killing the ball last April too… we all know how that turned out.  Plus, with Gardner on the bench much of the time, he could pinch run for half of the starting line-up in a big spot, and do what he does best after a real hitter gets on base for him.

The thing is, as disappointing as Melky’s overall performance was last year, and even though it got him a demotion, what Melky gave the Yankees last year is significantly better than what Gardner has shown so far. I love speed more than anyone but speed doesn’t do jack when you are getting on base at a .283 clip and taking poor routes to balls in the outfield. So if Melky at his worst is better than Gardner, and Melky is younger with a tremendous advantage in upside then I don’t really see any good reason to start Gardner.

I don’t think Gardner’s gotten enough time to conclusively determine that he’s not going to be an MLB-caliber player.

He’s had 196 PA over two stints in two different seasons and he has put up virtually identical number each time.  With a career 53 OPS+ how much more do we need to see?

Phil Hughes had another good start last night.  According to Chad Jennings, the run scored when Melancon came on with 2 on/2 out and the first batter hit a single.

So…bring Hughes up for the 28th and DL Wang (assume he’s healthy and they use the “tired arm” excuse)?  Or can Wang do enough in the bullpen/simulated games in between he deserves that start?

Log5 notwithstanding, the Yankees’s record seems remarkably good at this point.  A .600 winning percentage puts them on pace for 97 wins.  More important, they have had three starts from Wang that amounted to forfeits.  Thus, they’ve only really contested 12 games but have managed to win 9 of those.  Not bad, especially considering they are playing without their best player and the hope was merely that they tread water until ARod returned.

Brett Gardner FanGraphs page

His K% is down a little and his BB% about the same.  His LD% is WAY up (over 23%!) but his BABIP is basically the same as last year (.300).  Seems he has been a little bit unlucky so far this year, as his BABIP should probably be closer to .350.  There are no guarantees, but chances are his luck will even out over the year.  So IF (yes capital) he can keep up his other rates, he’ll hit (probably quite a bit) better than he has so far.

All that said, sure give him a couple of days off - maybe even the whole Sox series - from starting.  Melky is hot, Damon and Matsui are too (to lesser extents), and Swisher has been good as well.  But don’t send Gardner down or relegate him to the bench; or trade him for nothing.  Ask the White Sox about trading a player with poor numbers and a healthy amount of bad luck for nothing.

28th is at Detroit, so I still rather Wang recover his stuff, but if it’s a spot start, Detroit may be a good spot.

Buffalo had 4 players (after the game) hitting sub .200, and 7 players hitting at or below .250.

Hughes so far this year (AAA):

Record: 3-0
ERA: 1.86
GS: 3
IP: 19.1
H: 17
ER: 4
BB: 3
SO: 19
HR: 2

If you REALLY want to know for sure, you’ll probably need about 500 more PA.  It wouldn’t be the worst thing right now for Gardner to sit a couple of games and let Melky play.  Then after that start a round of getting rest for the regulars - Matsui, Damon, and Swisher can each get a day off - and let Gardner play in those games.  Gardner’s story is not yet written.  It may end the way many of you think, but 200PA is *not* enough to say it will.

What percentage of players that had an OPS+ that low (say under 60) for their first 200 PA over the age of 25 and then went on to be a regular starter for even as little as 4 of 5 years?

I’m guessing (based on nothing) that it will be well under 25%.  Maybe he can be one of those players.  Maybe you do need to give him another 500 PA to be sure, but let some other team give him those 500 PA.  The Yankees have better options.

Well, if we’re mving the Melky Cabrera discussion to this thread, I’ll re-post my 40 lira’s worth too:

Having spent the entire off-season as a leading voice of skepticism about Gardner’s ability to become a major league caliber player, I’m not going to start defending him now.  But Melky Cabrera is not your savior, guys.

For his career as a RHB, Cabrera has hit .254/.323/.338 in 468 PA.  Yesterday was only the 5th time that he has homered from the right side.  If you are really ready to conclude on the basis of yesterday’s game that he should play full-time, and that Gardner will never get any better on the basis of 196 PA split over three MLB stints, well, then you probably ought to be posting at a less statistically oriented site.

Oh, and the problem with SG’s bizarre platoon is that Gardner seems to be absolutely helpless against LHP.

<>For his career as a RHB, Cabrera has hit .254/.323/.338 in 468 PA.  Yesterday was only the 5th time that he has homered from the right side.  If you are really ready to conclude on the basis of yesterday’s game that he should play full-time, and that Gardner will never get any better on the basis of 196 PA split over three stints, well, then you probably ought to be posting at a less statistically oriented site.</i>

The man is well past his 25th birthday.  It’s not like we are going on nothing but 200 PA.  His MLE for his time with Scranton is .241/.330/.324.  Even if he falls between his MLB career totals and his MLE he’s still very bad.

Opps.

No one is saying Melky is the savior (both are stop gaps) but Melky is the better option.

Re: Hughes/Wang…

Part of me thinks it’s an overreaction to DL Wang (unless, of course, he’s actually hurt) and call up Hughes.

Part of me thinks that Wang *needs* that, and will be fine but not until he has the opportunity to work out some things in no-pressure spots.

Re: Gardner/Melky…

Hot hand right now = Melky.  That doesn’t mean Melky > Gardner (though that’s certainly possible).  It means Melky > Gardner *right now* 

Given that neither of these guys is going to develop into much, play the hot hand.  You’re not messing with the development of star prospects here…

If the NYS really turns out to be a launching pad, does that have any impact on the team’s W-L projection? Fly balls that should be outs turn into HRs—pitchers have to throw more pitches in fewer innings—more innings by the weaker relievers—overall taxing of the bullpen over the course of the season. Is there any way to adjust the projections to account for that?

In theory, it shouldn’t.  It’s way too early to determine if new Yankee Stadium is a launching pad, but in theory their opponents should be impacted to the same extent that the Yankees are.  If the Yankees are getting more pitches out of their weaker relievers, other teams should be as well.

Using Pythagenpat instead of straight Pythagorean  expectation does adjust for the run environment slightly.  So let’s see what adding offense would do in theory.

PF   1
RS   853
RA   711
PythW   95.59
PythPW   94.99

PF   1.02
RS   862
RA   718
PythW   95.59
PythPW   95.03

PF   1.04
RS   870
RA   725
PythW   95.59
PythPW   95.07
 
PF   1.08
RS   887
RA   739
PythW   95.59
PythPW   95.15

PF   1.1
RS   896
RA   747
PythW   95.59
PythPW   95.19

PF: Park factor ( greater thn 1 favors offense)
RS: Runs scored
RA: Runs allowed
PythW: Pythagorean wins (using 2 as exponent)
PythPW: Pythanpen wins (uses a custom exponent based on run environment)

It’s interesting, but increased offense should in theory improve the projection a tiny bit, not enough to make a meaningful change in outlook though.

The Yankees have better options.

Only if you really believe that Melky Cabrera’s last 26 PA mean more than the previous 352.  I mean, seriously.  Do you honestly believe that he’s gotten better based on this handful of games?  Or do you really think that Melky at his worst is better than what Gardner could ever do?  Because we’ve seen Melky at his worst very recently, and it’s every bit as ugly as Hunter’s dad.  Take out Cabrera’s first two weeks of 2008, and his OPS was Gardnerian.  Over twice as many major league PA as Garner has had in his entire life.

I don’t need to see 600 PA of Gardner sucking to conclude that he can’t hack it in the bigs, but I do think he should get another 200-300 this season before they just give up on him.

“What percentage of players that had an OPS+ that low (say under 60) for their first 200 PA over the age of 25 and then went on to be a regular starter for even as little as 4 of 5 years?”

Four or five YEARS?  Insofar as Brett Gardner is concerned, the Yankees should only be thinking in terms of four or five months, i.e., the remainder of this season.  Clearly, the team needs him now on account of Nady’s injury and the fact that Melky, yestrday’s game notwithstanding, is hardly a proven run-producer.  Given that AJax will come up in September, Brett probably has no future with the NYY regardless of what he does, but he does play a significant role on this team at present that should not be discounted (by which I mean, he’s a warm body with an OF glove who can steal bases).  I’m not clear how his chances of holding down a regular starting position in 2014 pertain to the present situation.

We can agree Gardner shouldn’t be leading off, right? Unless lineups don’t matter too much, etc.

Gardner hasn’t been terrific. But as long as we are talking about the 8 or 9 hitter, it doesn’t matter too much, or I don’t mind them getting a more equitable split in playing time. Melky is hot right now, no reason not to ride it a little bit, even if ya ain’t making him the full time CF.

No one is saying Melky is the savior…

Really?  Did you read the other thread?

We can agree Gardner shouldn’t be leading off, right?

Yeah, that was pretty ridiculous.  And MLB.com said it was to break up the lefties.  As if you couldn’t do that with Gardner batting ninth instead of first.

MC, i’m confused why you are only citing Melky’s RH splits in this part of the debate.

if the argument is whether or not Melky should be playing full-time, shouldn’t we be looking at his whole line?

Frankly, they both suck.  Either one would be acceptable as a 4-5 outfielder, but neither one should be the starting CF on a championship-caliber team.  So take your pick.  The good news is, once ARod gets back, the overall suckiness at the end of the lineup won’t be nearly as bad.

In theory, it shouldn’t.  It’s way too early to determine if new Yankee Stadium is a launching pad, but in theory their opponents should be impacted to the same extent that the Yankees are.

Wouldn’t there be some carry-over between series?  Yankees blow out their bullpen in the first three games of a homestand, that puts them at a disadvantage for the next series at home, or even when they go on the road against a team that didn’t have to play at a hitter’s park.

Not trying to say it’s a launching pad though.  Way too early.

MC, i’m confused why you are only citing Melky’s RH splits in this part of the debate.

Because his ineptitude from the right side is a big drag on his overall stats, and his HR from the right side yesterday is a big part of his “hot-hand” status.

It’s going to take a lot more than him running into a couple of meatballs for me to believe that he’s turned some kind of a corner, especially as a RHB.  So I continue to believe that in the short-term, the best thing for the Yankees would be to have a decent right-handed bat to platoon with Melky.

I should have been explicit about that, rather than expecting everyone to have total recall of our off-season debates.  My bad.

We can agree Gardner shouldn’t be leading off, right?

Right, though if he does it once in a rare while I’m not going to rip Girardi’s head off.  I still think Gardner *can* be a productive big-leaguer for several years.  I don’t know if he *will*.  But yeah, it looks like next year is AJax - who currently has an OPS over .900 in AAA - so we just need to figure out how to get past this year. 

Then for next year we need to know who one of the corner OF is - Swisher looks like he is one of them.  It *probably* isn’t Melky or Brett, but it could be.  And then, who is the 4th OF?  If Gardner is really a 60 OPS+ or less, you don’t want it to be him.  But what if he’s more like an 80 OPS+?  With his speed (defense is still in question)?  You’re not going to find that out by him being in the minors.  And I can already hear the moans if Gardner is traded somewhere and becomes a league-average CF somewhere (“WHY DID CASHMEN GET RID OF HIM!!! HE WOULD BE GREAT ON OUR BENCH!!!”). 

Gardner may suck.  But we really don’t know that yet.  And if he does and Jackson still has a .900 OPS in July, you have a free replacement.

Only if you really believe that Melky Cabrera’s last 26 PA mean more than the previous 352.  I mean, seriously.  Do you honestly believe that he’s gotten better based on this handful of games?  Or do you really think that Melky at his worst is better than what Gardner could ever do?  Because we’ve seen Melky at his worst very recently, and it’s every bit as ugly as Hunter’s dad.  Take out Cabrera’s first two weeks of 2008, and his OPS was Gardnerian.  Over twice as many major league PA as Garner has had in his entire life.

Why should we ignore all of 2006 and 2007?  At 21 and 22 over 2 season he was able to be good enough to earn the spot over Gardner.  That is what leads me to say 2008 is Melky’s worst and, like you said, that is still Gardnerian.

I don’t need to see 600 PA of Gardner sucking to conclude that he can’t hack it in the bigs, but I do think he should get another 200-300 this season before they just give up on him.

Right, but it’s not just about Gardner and his development.  In fact it’s not about that at all.  Neither he or Melky factor into the team long term as anything other than a pinch runner/4th OFer.  If AJ doesn’t develop we all hope they bring someone else in. 

All we are talking about is riding Melky for the short term.  If he gets really cold again and Garner starts heating up in his limited playing time to the point where it makes more sense to switch again then go for it.  For now, Melky should get the next two weeks or so as a starter. 

Four or five YEARS?  Insofar as Brett Gardner is concerned, the Yankees should only be thinking in terms of four or five months, i.e., the remainder of this season.

I agree and I see that as all the more reason not to ride out his struggles indefinitely in an effort to see if he can develop for the long term.  Neither of these guys has a long term future with the Yankees.

It’s like you’re Orson Welles or John Houseman, see?  And you’re trying to cast a production of Henry V.  And your choices for the lead are either Bert Convy or John Davidson.  That’s what this debate over Melky and Gardner boils down to: Do you want Convy or do you want Davidson?

Okay, I’ll stop now.

We can agree Gardner shouldn’t be leading off, right?

How many times has Gardner led off?

How many times has Gardner led off?

3 games? Or are you saying I’m overreacting? I probably am overreacting, but still.

Gardner lead off 3 times.  twice while Damon was out with the flu.

hopefully not again.

if Gardner is starting in a corner next year, Cashman should be drawn and quartered.

Do you honestly believe that he’s gotten better based on this handful of games? 

Well, he also has 524 PA’s of 95 OPS+ in 2006 and 612 PA’s of 89 OPS+ in 2007.

It’s going to take a lot more than him running into a couple of meatballs for me to believe that he’s turned some kind of a corner, especially as a RHB.

This is a fair point. I’m not saying Melky is any kind of savior by any means, but I think when you look at the total record of each player, when you mix in what is an insanely hot start, it makes you wonder if they should be investing the time in Melky as opposed to Gardner, especially since Gardner is still a tremendous asset as a PR on the 25 man roster. That said, I don’t expect Girardi to give the job to Melky because of 26 PA’s of 1.211 OPS.

I think this situation will end up solving itself because Melky is taking over for the spot that Nady was going to have, so he’ll get plenty of PA’s.

“28th is at Detroit, so I still rather Wang recover his stuff, but if it’s a spot start, Detroit may be a good spot. “

I really don’t want to see Wang start until his velocity is fully recovered and he gets some real hitters out in live action.  I think a DL/mL “rehab” stint is a must.

The way Hughes is pitching makes it easy.  Let Hughes have 4 starts while Wang “rehabs”.

You just can’t have meltdowns like Wang has been having.  It’s demoralizing (to him, most of all) and guts the pen.

Why should we ignore all of 2006 and 2007?

Well, he also has 524 PA’s of 95 OPS+ in 2006 and 612 PA’s of 89 OPS+ in 2007.

Not ignore, but recognize that they’re a long time ago and therefore deserve less weight in projecting his future.  Much less.  Also recognize that he has regressed when he should have been improving.  And finally just as an aside, recognize that in the event that Cabrera does return to those lofty heights, he probably starts getting overpaid as soon as next year.

Right, but it’s not just about Gardner and his development.  In fact it’s not about that at all.

I didn’t say that it is about Gardner’s development.  It’s about knowing what you have in him, if anything.

an insanely hot start

Seven hits.  Four of them HRs.  If he goes 0-5 in his next game, his BA/OBP would drop down to .250/.323; his slugging would still be insane, but that obviously won’t continue for long either.  Even if he has suddenly become dramatically better than anyone’s wildest dreams, this is still nothing but a fluke.  I guess the thing that is bugging me about this is that he hasn’t played enough to even say anything about his start.

it makes you wonder if they should be investing the time in Melky as opposed to Gardner

I don’t look at it as an investment at all.  I’m not trying to devlope either one of these guys.  I’m trying to milk what I can out of a couple of very limited assets.  It seems that we pretty much agree on all of this, but again, I was responding to the stuff in the other threads about how Melky should play every day and Gardner should be buried on the bench or sent down.

I think this situation will end up solving itself because Melky is taking over for the spot that Nady was going to have, so he’ll get plenty of PA’s.

Yeah, and Matsui’s knees are probably going to need a couple of days off a week, so Damon and Swisher can DH some too.

Do you want Convy or do you want Davidson?

Can I at least have somebody without dimples?  I hate freakin’ dimples.

Off days suck.  Though I have to be happy with this one, b/c of the Wang situation.

if Gardner is starting in a corner next year, Cashman should be drawn and quartered.

Generally I agree with you.  If Gardner gets hot and finishes the season with an OPS over 100 (in 500+ PA) I may not.  That’s all I’m saying, is we shouldn’t be making decisions on very small samples.  Just like Shelley Duncan’s small sample in 2007 with an OPS+ of 128 wasn’t proof he could start, Gardner’s #‘s now aren’t proof he can’t.  Doesn’t mean Gardner needs to be run out there every day, but he also shouldn’t be jettisoned.

Since Wang isn’t actually hurt I’d rather give Hughes at least a month, month and a half more on AAA before he gets a call.  Wang may force the issue sooner but in that case I may rather see IPK or Aceves for a few games before Hughes to let him get to that 60-70 IP mark.  I’ve heard rumors that Hughes still has a few of his secondary pitches that are considered to be works in progress.

If Gardner gets hot and finishes the season with an OPS over 100 (in 500+ PA) I may not.

If thats the case, he should be in CF.. I think the point was that he shouldn’t be playing LF or RF, where he would need to be a .275/.360/.460 type of player to cut it.

My guess is that the decision on Wang’s next start will have at least as much to do with what happens over the weekend as it has with Wang and Hughes.  If they take two of three in Fenway and the bullpen is in pretty good shape, they’ll probably let Wang have a shot at the Tigers.  If they lose two or all three and the pen is overworked in the process, they’ll leave Wang in Tampa and make a move.  If Wang does start on the 28th and gets lit up again, then Hughes is still in line for May 3 against the Angels.

Though I have to be happy with this one, b/c of the Wang situation

Sometimes you want to give your Wang a break so he can perform when it counts!

I didn’t say that it is about Gardner’s development.  It’s about knowing what you have in him, if anything.

But given that Melky has higher upside and is younger, isn’t it just as important (if not more so) to see what you have in Melky?  That’s why I say it isn’t just about Gardner.  You only need one of them and only for a short amount of time as a starter so go with the one that has a better chance of being something.  Right now, it’s hard to argue that isn’t Melky.

Next year with Matsui and Damon gone there could be a spot for both Melky and Gardner.  Melky as the 4th OFer and Gardner as a 5th OFer/definsive replacement/pinch runner.  You’ve seen enough of of Gardner to know he can be that.

I think the point was that he shouldn’t be playing LF or RF, where he would need to be a .275/.360/.460 type of player to cut it.

Well, it’s a matter of best deploying your assets right?  If Jackson is ready and if he is a better defensive CF than Gardner, Jackson should be playing CF right?  Then you have to ask if an average-ish LF - Gardner’s SB would probably make up for lack of power, if we are again assuming OPS+ over 100 - who costs 500K or less is a better bet than signing Holliday to a huge contract and hoping his decline is gradual?  Especially if there is another LF in the organization who may be due in 2011, like maybe a former catcher with a big bat?

This dicussion is really all academic, I think.  For the next 4-6 weeks Gardner and Melky are both going to get a fair amount of playing time.  After that the Yankees will have a good idea where Nady is, and at that point Cashman will decide if he needs to move Damon to CF (Nady is healthy and playing a corner), if Melky/Gardner is cutting it, or if he needs to trade for someone.  Or even bring up Jackson.  Yankees aren’t going to make a move before June 1st.

“Off days suck.  Though I have to be happy with this one, b/c of the Wang situation.”

You should get that checked out, if it’s affecting your ability to even watch a baseball game.

Beaten again (no pun intended)

You’ve seen enough of of Gardner to know he can be that.

We agree!  I’d just like to see if he can be more.  Yankees are on pace to score 907 runs and ARod will be back in 2-4 weeks, so I don’t see where Gardner (or Melky) are really hurting the offense that much.  In the other thread you also pointed out Gardner’s “poor” defense, but why is his SSS this year that says he is bad more important than his SSS last year that says he is good?

The good news is, once ARod gets back, the overall suckiness at the end of the lineup won’t be nearly as bad.

Aye, the rub.  Ransom batting 8th makes Melky/Gardner batting 9th all the more distressing.  Once you have 5 days a week of Matsui in the 8 hole, we’ll all be able to sleep a lot better. 

For the moment, however, I don’t see what’s controversial about riding Melky while he’s hot while still keeping our heads about what it means and not going all weak-kneed (as many of us did in ‘06) about how Melky is the next Bernie.

Then again, since I seem to be agreeing with Pete Abraham maybe this idea is crazy.  Of course I also disagree with Nomaas which means it must be sane…I’m confused.

Yeah, Hughes really has to get command of the curve and the change before he is thrust into big starts. He really has to be able to at least drop that curve in to start a batter off and throw the change at 1-1 and basic things like that. I like his fastball—it’s sneaky and he has shown the ability to cut it and throw it 2-seam in the right spots when he is healthy. But at no point has he impressed me with his command of the curve, slider or change. Even if he is dominating AAA for a couple of months I think he can use the work down there, unless Wang just continues to completely melt down and Aceves and IPK can’t manage a 5.00 ERA in spot starts.

In the other thread you also pointed out Gardner’s “poor” defense, but why is his SSS this year that says he is bad more important than his SSS last year that says he is good?

You are right, it’s not.  But to be honest I don’t put a lot of stock in defensive stats.  Right now I think they are all too young to have worked out the kinks so I wasn’t really going on that.  I was going more on what I’ve seen of Gardner myself and what I’ve heard of his defensive reputation in the minors (which seem to match).  Also to clarify, I was saying that his routes to balls was poor, not his overall defensive contribution.

BTW, until nady is back, Melky (or Garder, if Melky becomes the starter) is probably going to get 2-3 starts a week to rest Damon, Matsui, Texeira (with Swish going to first), and the starting CF. So there will be opportunities to see both of them and determine if either is making great strides at the plate and in the field. So, I know everyone likes to argue, but Girardi might get both of these guys 300 PAs and keep the starters fresh and healthy. I’m not saying that we actually want these guys to get that many PAs—I’m just saying that this argument most likely will play out on the field unless nady gets healthy fast.

I kid around about Gardner a just to have some fun on the blog. But I do think his ceiling is higher than Melky’s

This is where I disagree with Abraham.

But to be honest I don’t put a lot of stock in defensive stats.

Uh, yeah, me neither. Fangraphs has Daniel Murphy worth 5 wins above average defensively over the course of the season, based on just how awesome he has played LF so far this season. Basically he is projected, based on this season’s performance to date, to be the greatest defensive LFer of all time, according to UZR.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4316&position=OF

I just find that a little hard to believe, since he has handed the opposition two doubles and a triple on balls hit right at him and he’s given up 4 bases on throwing errors and even the pitcher Joel Pineiro scores the go ahead run from 2nd against him on line drives to left.

This is where I disagree with Abraham.

For the record, I think Melky’s ceiling is probably higher than Gardner’s; Melky could probably hit 20+ HR in the big leagues and you have to steal a LOT of bases to make that up.  However, I also think it is more likely Gardner will reach his ceiling than Melky.  Gardner’s had to work hard to reach every level he’s got to, and I think we’ve seen Melky can lose focus.  You can certainly learn to focus better/improve your work ethic, but…

Either way, both of these guys are going to get 6+ weeks of at least semi-regular playing time to show what they can do.

I just find that a little hard to believe

1) small sample size 2) why can’t defense have good years/bad years/fluke years like offense?  You’ve never seen a “true talent” 90 OPS+ guy put up a 120 OPS+ for one year?

MGL is a really, really, REALLY smart guy who knows A LOT about baseball and specifically defense.  He’s still tweaking UZR, and no it isn’t perfect.  But, I still think it is better than, “I know what I see with my eyes”.  And consider too; you hear scouting reports a guy takes bad routes to balls and you believe it, and you then see a ball he doesn’t get too, you don’t think your percpetion may be influenced by what you already “know”?

The problem with all of the current defensive metrics is that they need two or three year’s worth of data to get accurate, so the first month of a season is absurdly small sample size.

And consider too; you hear scouting reports a guy takes bad routes to balls and you believe it, and you then see a ball he doesn’t get too, you don’t think your percpetion may be influenced by what you already “know”?

I think this is the main problem evaluating defense with your eyes in an extremely small sample size.  People see the errors Murphy has made.  By all the metrics, he has fielded an above average portion of his fieldable chances.  His errors have been mishaps with the glove and arm, but it seems he has the range.

MGL is a really, really, REALLY smart guy who knows A LOT about baseball and specifically defense.  He’s still tweaking UZR, and no it isn’t perfect.  But, I still think it is better than, “I know what I see with my eyes”.  And consider too; you hear scouting reports a guy takes bad routes to balls and you believe it, and you then see a ball he doesn’t get too, you don’t think your percpetion may be influenced by what you already “know”?

It absolutely could.  I’m not denying that or saying there is ANY good way to definitively argue about defense.

I’m also not saying I know more than MGL (or anyone for that matter) but while he tweaked the formula he isn’t watching every game live to see supply the data.  Based on my understanding, in the end this is all dependant on the data that is collected by certain people sitting in the ball park saying “I think an average person could have caught that ball” or not base on defensive positioning, trajectory, etc…

If you ran a simulation in which Bret Gardner got 6 ABs a game how many iterations would it take before Bret Gardner hit 2 HRs in a game?  Or would the computer blow out first?

1) small sample size 2) why can’t defense have good years/bad years/fluke years like offense?  You’ve never seen a “true talent” 90 OPS+ guy put up a 120 OPS+ for one year?

In regards to small sample size—yeah, of course. I was only bringing it up because other people were saying that Gardner was playing poorly in CF based on metrics for 10 games.

But my bigger issue here is that Murphy has been TERRIBLE in LF in this small sample size, yet the metrics make it look like he has been uncharacteristically awesome. The metrics just show that an inordinate number of pop ups to left have been hit to Murphy, most of which he has caught (I guess). I mean, the guy is likely to get benched despite the fact that he has been hitting .315, and the Mets had to rearrange their entire cut off system because they don’t trust him to throw from LF to 3B on the fly. I have never seen a runner not take the extra base on his arm and he hasn’t thrown anyone out yet. So there is something wrong here. He has allowed the winning run to score on butchered plays in LF twice already, and his throwing errors cost them at least one other game.

If a player is batting 120+, he might be getting lucky or on a hot streak, but he isn’t actually hitting poorly and costing the team runs left and right. But how can all those dropped balls and misplayed triples not show up? And if they don’t, then why even pay attention to metrics until we have 3 or 4 years of data to work out the kinks?

I’m still betting that BG gets the bulk of the ABs in the near future due to Girardi’s seeming man crush and I think how badly he has sucked through his first 200 ABs, given his age 25.5, and the manner in which he sucks:no power, no walks, and a 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio it is extremely unlikely that BG will every amount to anything.

I agree that Gardner is more likely to hit his ceiling. However, I don’t think his ceiling is significantly higher than what he is performing at now. I don’t think Gardner can ever be league average with the bat. With baserunning and fielding he may be able lto top above average over all as a player, but he’s always going to be a black hole to some degree in the batting order. Like I said over the winter, I’ll take Melky.

I agree with dannux- I view defensive metrics as more of a clue than the be all/end all.  Throwing is a large part of defense that doesn’t show up.  Still, over a sufficiently large sample size it seems range can be measured assuming you adjust for positioning.

By all the metrics, he has fielded an above average portion of his fieldable chances.  His errors have been mishaps with the glove and arm, but it seems he has the range.

Maybe he does have the range. Or maybe there have been a lot of high fly balls hit to LF. Or maybe there is a lot of room in LF at Citi Field (there is), and so he gets helped just as Manny had the worst UZR numbers anyone had ever seen when he was playing in Fenway. I haven’t seen Murphy get to anything in LF this season that wasn’t routine, and, though it is possible that my eyes are deceiving me, it’s also possible that defensive metrics aren’t representative of anything in particular to this point.

Still, over a sufficiently large sample size it seems range can be measured assuming you adjust for positioning.

And ballparks. And maybe pitching staffs. I mostly trust the Fielding Bible numbers, as they actually keep track of things like how long the ball is in the air and not just where it lands. But ZR and RZR only track the zone the ball ends up in, and OOZ does the same. Wang could give up 7 uncatchable line drives to LF and Santana could give up 7 pop ups to left, and it looks like one leftfielder was perfect and the other was terrible. I know that sort of happens with hitting, but over the course of the season all hitters basically face the same pitchers and defense, but they don’t necessarily play behind the same type or quality pitching staff. And OOZ in the outfield is just silly, because half those plays are going to be determined by whether or not your CF is the type of player who always calls off his LF or not.

That being said, I do agree that over the course of a career the stats are going to be meaningful. I just disagree that even a full season’s stats add up to anything significantly informative.

That being said, I do agree that over the course of a career the stats are going to be meaningful. I just disagree that even a full season’s stats add up to anything significantly informative.

That’s a fair point.  I’m not claiming to be an expert and I really don’t have any inclination to defend Murphy.

Me “eyes” have shown me 3-4 runs that Teixeira saved relative to Giambi; and at least that much that anyone could have saved relative to Murphy (in the field).

The play Tex made Sunday almost looked like an optical illusion manufactured via computer graphics that’s how impossible it appeared.

I think this discussion is pretty much played out, but I will make two more small points:

1) The one year age difference between Cabrera and Gardner is pretty much meaningless, so I wish people would drop the “since Melky is younger” part of the argument.  Players do not uniformly peak at age 27, so it is not correct to assume that Gardner must be closer to his peak.  The difference in service time is actually a bigger deal, since Melky will be an overpriced 4th/5th OFer next year, while Gardner would still be a cheap 4th/5th OFer for two more years.

2) Melky Cabrera is not a good player who had a bad year.  He’s a mediocre at best player who had an absolutely horrible year.  If we’re going to entertain questions like “How many players age 25 or older who posted a 53 or lower OPS+ in 200 PA ever became major league starters for 4 or 5 years?” then we should also entertain questions like “How many player who ever posted an 68 or lower OPS+ in over 450 PA in their third full season in MLB or later ever came back to be even league average hitters?”  I’m pretty sure that the answer to both questions is “not very many.”

The one year age difference between Cabrera and Gardner is pretty much meaningless, so I wish people would drop the “since Melky is younger” part of the argument.

I agree with this.  Going forward it realy doesn’t matter, it’s who is more productive.

Melky Cabrera is not a good player who had a bad year.  He’s a mediocre at best player who had an absolutely horrible year.

Conjecture.  I mean, the next question you could ask is, “how many players age 21 or younger posted an OPS+ of 95 or higher in over 500PA and sucked?”  Probably a similar answer.  FWIW, if you look at his similar-players list by age, most similar at age 23 is Curt Flood, most similar by age 23 includes Flood, Jose Guillan, Paul Blair, and Damon.

I’m certainly not *convinced* that Melky has turned a corner of anything.  At the same time, I’m not convinced that his career from here on out will be limited to backup outfielder on a perennial non-contender.  What I *hope* is that if he hits well enough to deserve a regular job next year, people are willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.  Especially as the Yankees don’t yet have to commit to him long-term.

I mostly trust the Fielding Bible numbers, as they actually keep track of things like how long the ball is in the air and not just where it lands. But ZR and RZR only track the zone the ball ends up in, and OOZ does the same.

From what I understand - and I’ve read on Tango Tiger’s blog - UZR and the Fielding Bible use the same data now.  I believe Tango actually called the Fielding Bible a subset of UZR, though I could be wrong.  ZR is fairly simple, but UZR I believe splits the data into smaller zones, and also takes into account things like how hard the ball is hit, positioning (is a lefty pitching) etc.

Throwing is a large part of defense that doesn’t show up.

Check FanGraphs again.  UZR now has an ARM component for outfielder’s arms.  Numbers are similar to what John Walsh does at THT, and his methodology is certainly sound (not sure what MGL uses).

Just like hitting, you need more than one year to tease out “talent”.  One year tells you how well someone did that year.  Several years tells you how talented that player is.

If you ran a simulation in which Bret Gardner got 6 ABs a game how many iterations would it take before Bret Gardner hit 2 HRs in a game?

Gardner’s average projection is 4 HRs for 482 PA, or 0.008298755 HR/PA.  So for 6 PA/G, his odds of homering once is something like 0.049792531.  Multiply that by itself to get the odds of homering twice in a game, you get 0.002479296.  That means it would take something like 404 games to see him homer twice.

Melky is a better player now and has a higher ceiling.  Gardner is an absolute disaster offensively.  No power.  Low OBP.  Even Melky’s worst year, last year, his OPS+ was 10 points higher then BG’s.  His average OPS+ is 30 points higher.  Gardner never ever hits the ball hard, I’ve seen him hit one ball hard ever.

Conjecture.

No.  When I said “mediocre at best” I meant it as a literal description of what he has been, not as a prediction of what he might be.  In his best years, he’s been around an average player, maybe a touch below.  I use the term “mediocre” to mean mediocre, not to mean “utterly horrible” the way some people do.

No.  When I said “mediocre at best” I meant it as a literal description of what he has been, not as a prediction of what he might be.

Okay, I took it as your take on his talent, not necessarily what he has done.  Yes, so far he’s been mediocre at best.  We don’t know yet what he will be.

Gardner never ever hits the ball hard, I’ve seen him hit one ball hard ever.

I suppose it’s possible that all of his LD are soft loopers (see above, he’s over 23% this year).  And those balls he hit over the heads of the outfielders in Tampa, I guess you didn’t see those, either.

Enough of Gardner/Melky.  Both are not long-term solutions.  But we will have to live with one of them in the OF for some time.  Just hope Girardi can figure out how to get the most out the two.

Instead, get ready for the Sox series:

http://www.nypost.com/seven/04232009/sports/yankees/big_papi_to_joba__dont_throw_at_us_165712.htm

Hey Big Papi: shut your piehole.  No one cares what you and your 55 OPS+ think.  If Youk weren’t such a douche, he wouldn’t have to worry about the chin music.

“Hey Big Papi: shut your piehole.  No one cares what you and your 55 OPS+ think.  If Youk weren’t such a douche, he wouldn’t have to worry about the chin music. “

Flip him!

The Fenway crowd will welcome the Trader. I think this weekend he gets booed the loudest as they don’t have access to A-Rod.

It’s not Ortiz place to say anything to Joba.  Instead he should worry about people in his own clubhouse, like… say… Beckett.  Afterall, he is the one that is suspended right now for throwing at someone’s head.

One ball he over the head of a Buc OF was legit, the other was a product of how shallow the LF was playing, you see that with pitchers hitting sometimes.

Does he not draw walks because the pitchers have no respect and he has no strike zone judgement or he just doesn’t have the knack of spoiling pitches he can’t handle?

If I were John Henry I’d invite A-Rod to throw out the first pitch.

Speaking of Beckett.  If you were on the Yankees, how many times would you call time out on him?  Twice per AB?

Does he not draw walks because the pitchers have no respect and he has no strike zone judgement or he just doesn’t have the knack of spoiling pitches he can’t handle?

The evidence actually shows that it’s very difficult to intentionally foul off pitches.  Even Ichiro, a noted batsman with good contact skills, hardly sees any increase in this fouloff percentage with 2 strikes.  I’ll dig up the article.

No need to throw at Papi.  He’s not hitting.  Youk will need to be worked inside.  Not thrown at, mind you.

Is the general concensus that Joba deliberately threw at Youk’s head in the past?  I remember him throwing 2 pitches like 3 feet over Youk’s head and a bit behind him.  They were so wild looking to me, I (perhaps naively) believed it was some sort of mechanical hiccup (they were back-to-back pitches, IIRC).  Then again, Joba had been painting before that…

Yeah, the problem with trying to foul a pitch off is that you might put it in play.  Result: weak grounder or pop up.

Okay, so my recollection was slightly off, Ichiro sees a decent increase in his foul-off percentage, but it’s not huge.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/hit-em-where-they-aintmdashif-you-can/

There’s a section on fouling a ball off.

The Fenway crowd will welcome the Trader. I think this weekend he gets booed the loudest as they don’t have access to A-Rod.

You are forgetting Teixeira.  If the seemingly lackluster Orioles crowd got on him for not becoming an O even when no serious deal was on the table (but simply because he’s from the area), the Sox fans will no doubt boo Teixeira mightily given how close (sort of) they were to signing him.  It is almost like a mini A-Rod drama.
The Damon thing is kind of in the past now.  They may still hate him for being a “trader” a few years back, but few are that fired up about it anymore.

Per Pete Abe, via RAB, it appears that Wang’s outing in extended spring training, while superificially good (11ks, 1BB) leads Nardi Contreras to believe Wang’s arm strength isn’t there. 

I think Hughes is going to come up.  I hope it’s hughes.  Aceves has been getting smacked around in AAA.  I guess you could go with IPK…

If someone has to come up I’d rather it be IPK (or Aceves) for the reasons discussed in 46 and 57.

Question…this may have been brought up but I am sick of hearing about the “NYS launching pad.”

Who cares if the new Yankee Stadium is a ridiculous hitter’s park? We probably have more lefties/switch hitters than every team we will face and we have 2 PDG (pretty damn good) lefty pitchers. Seems like an advantage.

“I’ve heard rumors that Hughes still has a few of his secondary pitches that are considered to be works in progress.”

I recently noted (in suggesting that IPK come first) that I’d read Hughes at Chad Jenning’s blog say that the curve comes and goes and the change is still underway.  I don’t think this counts as “rumors”.  But I don’t know if one should base decisions on what Hughes thinks about his stuff.

If Wang isn’t ready. they still have to keep him on 25 unless they can claim a Dice Clay tired arm story.  I’m not a fan of Aceves but I’m not sure whether its better in the long run to let Hughes stay in AAA or not