For all the crap Andy Phillips has been getting lately, offense plus defense he’s not really that big of a problem.

I don’t understand why so many people have gotten on him, although I don’t think its that bad.  He really has played to his role quite admirably, all things considered.

I find it interesting that Matsui is rated at -0.62, given that his 2007 RZR (from THT) is .910-- by that metric, he’s far and away the best left fielder in baseball.

Who is catching?  I don’t see any catchers listed for any of the permutations.  Presumably they will give up a ton of runs without a catcher.  There will be a lot of passed balls…

Seriously, wouldn’t the inclusion of Posada (or Posado if you like) benefit the estimation of runs per game?  I am hoping that number rises above 6.

Umm, probably I am just a moron, but when I put Betemit in at SS, he costs 2.893 runs per game on defense.  I am guessing and hoping that this is unrealistic.

It looks like it’d be best to use the second-to-last lineup as the default starting lineup, swap in the bench players periodically to rest the starters and keep the bench fresh (Damon LF when Giambi or Matsui need a rest, Phillips when Betemit needs to spell another infielder, Duncan for Abreu, Molina for Posada), and use Phillips as a LIDR for Betemit and Damon as either a LIDR for Matsui (when the Yanks lead) or a PR for Giambi (when Giambi’s the tying or go-ahead run on base in late innings).

Who is catching? 

Well, I figured we knew Posada would be the best option at catcher, but I still should have included catcher.  I don’t have time to post new charts, but I’ve uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet with catcher listed (and yes, the # rises above 6).

Umm, probably I am just a moron, but when I put Betemit in at SS, he costs 2.893 runs per game on defense.  I am guessing and hoping that this is unrealistic.

Nah, in this instance, I’m the moron.  I forgot to give Betemit a defensive rating at 2B and SS, so he was being treated as if he would never make a play on any ball hit to him.  The re-uploaded version of the spreadsheet has been corrected to give him ratings for all four infield positions.  I also missed rating Melky for the OF corners, so that’s been fixed too.

It looks like it’d be best to use the second-to-last lineup as the default starting lineup, swap in the bench players periodically to rest the starters and keep the bench fresh

That’s my take on it.  Use a platoon at first, start Phillips behind Wang, and rest everyone periodically.

I find it interesting that Matsui is rated at -0.62, given that his 2007 RZR (from THT) is .910-- by that metric, he’s far and away the best left fielder in baseball.

I’m not completely sold on RZR.  First of all, it completely ignores balls out of zone.  While I don’t regular ZR does a great job of handling those, it does factor them in as plays made and chances which is better than nothing IMO.

Also, if we’re trying to project going forward, looking at just 2007 is not really the right way to go.  If we have 3 years of data that tell us that Matsui is a below average defender in LF, we shouldn’t think his performance in 2007 is more indicative of what we can expect going forward than the previous 3 years.  Obviously, we’d weigh 2007 more, but we can’t ignore the past.

Thank you for adding Posada.  Now I can play around and get over 1,000 runs in a 162 games.  Not that it matters, the Yankees did not have the option to play Duncan, Giambi, etc. for 162 games, but it makes me feel happy anyway. 

The numbers say that the drop-off with Betemit at SS is small enough that the Yankees should take advantage of Betemit to rest Jeter.  I feel that Jeter has been playing below his norm lately, and might benefit from some rest.  Just a day here and there, maybe 1 out of 10 games against right handers.

The problem with Phillps is that if you look deeper into his number, you would imagine that it’s much more likely to trend downward from here on than upward. while Betemit has a decent chance of trending upward. and Shelley, should he be used in only a platoon / PH role, has a good shot of outdoing his MLE projection.

He’s whiffing at around the same rate as he did in AAA, but not walking at all, and not hitting for any power. a guy that Ks 17% or so of his PA and walking about 5% and with no power no speed is very very unlikely to sustain a BA that goes that much over .260 and the average is basically the only thing Andy has going for him. he also for some weird reason can’t hit any lefty that can get lefty out.

Andy is a very nice organizational player, but he’s really unlikely to be a everyday player in any position unless he somehow take up catching.

One reminder of the potential benefits of shifting players around is that Jeter is currently more below average at short than Giambi is at first.  If Jeter could be an above average defender at LF/RF/1B, that leaves room to give up a decent sized amount of offense in shuffling players and still come out ahead.

In 2008, playing Betemit at 3B, A-Rod at SS and Jeter at 1B would save .164 runs per game at short if A-Rod can still play average SS defense, and probably show a small gain at 1B but cost 0.89 runs at 3rd.  That’s still a gain of .075+ runs/game, but probably not a large enough one to be worth the disruption it would cause.

In the longer run, though there are larger gains to be had from moving Jeter to the outfield if he retains the speed and arm strength to play well there, and it can be done with less disruption as contracts end (e.g. Abreu will be leaving in 2008 or 2009).  It will be a bit easier to add a free agent 1B with good offense (perhaps one of the ones in the NL whose contracts are expiring in the next few years) than a free agent outfielder, so I’d prefer to use moving players to plug the harder to fill hole.

Even 2-3 years out, though, moving Jeter seems to hinge on a viable replacement at short who can hit at least 0.600 runs per game and play average defense.  Those aren’t that easy to come by.  Any thoughts on who the candidates are?  Is there any way to know how long A-Rod will be viable as an option (if he even still is now)?

Ehhh the only problem is that
1. it’s not gonna happen
2. it’s hard to think A-rod would be much better
3. Moving Jeter to a corner position kinda kill a lot of his value.

Unless he goes all Johnny Damon and limp around the field. i can’t see Jeter moved out of short any time soon. espically when our 2B is also locked up.

I’m just curious though, how in the world does a guy with Jeter’s ability suck so bad at going up the middle?

I really don’t think ARod is a viable option at SS any more.  Not so much that he can’t play it (though I’m sure he isn’t nearly as good as he used to be), but there are politics to consider.  If ARod was going to be the SS, it would have happened when they first got him.

Other options?  Gonzalez could still hit enough for his defense to make him a starter.  Remember, most SS don’t hit very well, especially when they are defensive whizzes.  I’m wondering if in a couple of years it may be worth the Yankees’ while to inquire about Hanley Ramirez.  Depending on how all of the pitching prospects work out, the Yankees might have (and be willing to part with) two A prospects for him.  But that’s just dreaming.  Jimmy Rollins may be a FA soon as well.  And you never know if the Mets may be dumb enough to allow Jose Reyes to become a FA in I think three years.

I’m wondering if in a couple of years it may be worth the Yankees’ while to inquire about Hanley Ramirez.

i think Ramirez is “Jeter-bad” on defense.

though at his age he still has the chance to improve.

The problem here is that Jeter is signed till 2010, and really, he’s not worth 20M if he moves to any other position other than maybe second, but then Cano wouldnt’ be nearly as valuable if he move out of second (unless he somehow can play short, i suppose with how bad Jeter is now, Cano might actually be better)

Phillips lack of power is what disturbs me.  It seems that when he makes solid contact he has warning track power.  Maybe more time in the weight room or a visit with Bond’s conditioning coach would help.

he’s not worth 20M if he moves to any other position

Well that’s true.  However, the Yankees aren’t going to trade him, so value relative to money really doesn’t matter.  What does matter is maximizing his value to the Yankees...and at this point he may be most valuable to them as a 1B or corner OF.

i think Ramirez is “Jeter-bad” on defense

I just checked his ZR, and it does look that way, doesn’t it?  As you said, he may get better, so in a year or two we’ll see if it makes sense.  Ideally of course Gonzalez next year puts up an OPS around 800 in Scranton and continues playing awesome defense.  Gonzalez is “free”.