Hinske?

Is he one player who has played for all AL East teams? Maybe Baltimore is eluding him.

The Pirates are coughing up cash?  I thought the team with the bajillion dollar payroll was supposed to be the one forking over the dough as a tax for disrepecting the game.

In a minute?! I need this information NOW! Damn it man!

Man, the Yankees gave up nothing in particular.

Who loses their roster spot?

I’d guess it’s Nady -> 60-Day.

He’s only a year older than Nady and his career OPS+ and wOBA aren’t that much worse (100 v. 108; .337 v. .342).

[5] Maybe they’re sending down Pena to get more regular playing time? Or releasing Ransom?

Why release Ransom? And I don’t understand this trade, as it’ll take up a 40 spot from someone who may be more useful. But I guess Cashman has his plan.

You still have a Tomko to release.

Does Pena really need to play every day? How high is his ceiling? Anyways, Hinske play on A-Rod off days isn’t terrible, which is nice.

Nady has been out of more than 60 days, so moving him to the 60 day dl doesn’t really change anything.  That opens up your roster spot on the 40-man.  As to who gets moved on the active roster, it’s probably Pena going down, as Hinske can play 1st/3rd, and they can always call Pena back up if there’s an injury.

I think Hinske will play more in the OF than the INF.

I would understand it if they sent Pena down, and that’s probably what they will do, but his defense is as good, if not better, than any Yankee SS in years.

Projections posted.

There’s an open spot on the 40 already, so they don’t need to DFA anybody to make room for Hinske.  I’m pretty sure that Nady to the 60-day DL will happen, but it doesn’t have to happen today.

anyone have a guess as to what will happen when Molino returns?

I was going to post this on the last thread and saw this one had opened.

Did a little research…Fryer was acquired from Milwalkee for Chase Wright in February.  Here is what R.J. Anderson (FanGraphs) had to say about that at the time: “Frankly, Fryer seems like a bit much to give up for Wright, but I’ll give the Brewers and their exposure to Fryer the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise.”  Fryer had put up a .420 wOBA in A ball in 2008 but only .320 so far this year in A+ at 23.

Casey Erickson is a 23 year old reliever (with some starting experience) in his first full season of A ball with some decent peripherals (2.33 FIP in Staten Island last year, 2.54 FIP in Charleston this year).  But Yankees have plenty of RH relievers ahead of him on the depth-chart.  So worst they are losing is a potentially better trade chip last year.

This *should* be a good trade.  Will it be a Glenallen Hill trade (OPS+ of 100 with the Cubs, 175 after coming to the Yankees), or a Raul Mondesi trade (WYSIWYG)?

Cervello goes back to the minors.  Again, no DFA required since Nady will be on the 60-day DL by then.

18 was in re 16

Does Pena really need to play every day? How high is his ceiling?

Pena is a 23 (almost 24) year old who skipped AAA.  I think he’s always been fairly young for his league, even though he hasn’t hit.  His defense has always been raved about.  I’d hazard his ceiling is probably starting SS (great-D, enough stick), and it certainly wouldn’t hurt him to get a half-season in AAA.

As others have noted, there is already a spot on the 40-man open, and another will likely open up shortly with Nady going on the 60-day.  They still have a spot for adding another player, and as also noted they may DFA Tomko soon if they need another roster spot.

anyone have a guess as to what will happen when Molino returns?

I think with Hinske now, it is pretty clear.  Send Cervelli down to be the starter in AAA (and further develop HIS bat), and move Molina back into the backup C.  I’d hazard there is little difference in the two for the 20 games they’ll play the rest of the year, and I think it is useful to let Cervelli develop.  Also, the other catcher on the 40-man (Cash) is on the DL right now in the minors.

I am completely failing to understand the Pirates.

SG, quick question about the “actual BRAR/650”, seems like on this one, and a few of the previous tables, the number is out of line with the BR value.  Bug in the spreadsheet?

SG, quick question about the “actual BRAR/650”, seems like on this one, and a few of the previous tables, the number is out of line with the BR value.  Bug in the spreadsheet?

In this one I’m comparing Hinske to an average/replacement hitter, not position-adjusted.  If I don’t set the position correctly it could be why you are seeing numbers out of line with what they should be though.  If you let me know which tables you had questions on I can check them.

I am completely failing to understand the Pirates.

Let’s see.

Pirates GM: “We suck, and will suck the rest of the way. We don’t need a guy like Hinske, who is meh and is bitching about his playing time. So let’s send him anywhere for anything we can get.”

Q: “So why did you sign him in the first place?”

A: “We had a budget to spend money on something. Whatever.”

Love this pickup.  It allows ARod/Damon/Tex/Swisher to all take some days at DH without a huge dropoff.  I think this is big for keeping ARod productive/healthy.

The only downside is he hits LH.  They could use a RH bat off the bench.

I would love to see them pick up a RH MI who can hit a little.

I guess it’s the comparison between the projections and the YTD data that’s confusing me.  Hinske’s average projection was for 85 BR/650, and 22 BRAR/650, but his actual numbers have him at 81 BR/650 and only 4 BRAR/650.  Seems like BRAR/650 should be ~18 or so.

You know what I think is flying under the radar recently?  Cashman’s ability to get something for nothing.  He’s had players that were DFA’d recently that he was able to trade for potentially useful parts.  I think several of them.  It’s like, anything Cashman does good any more is either ignored (he got SOMETHING for Veras!!) or dismissed because it wasn’t Cashman, it was the money!  But he’s pilloried for not having league-average backups at every position, or the fact that the SEVENTH man out of his bullpen is below replacement.  Sure, Cash isn’t perfect, but he’s pretty darned good.

The Yankees should inquire about Felipe Lopez (from Arizona).
FA after this year.  League averagish RH hitter who can play 2B and SS.

4-man bench of Cabrera/Hinske/Lopez/Cervelli would be pretty good.

The only downside is he hits LH.  They could use a RH bat off the bench.

True…but they’ll usually have one of Swisher/Melky on the bench.  Maybe both against a lefty starter.  Melky this year anyway has hit LH better.  Need to see more if this is a permanent shift or a SSS fluke.  Swisher slightly worse (but still .842 OPS) against lefties this year.  Slightly better (.826) for his career.

Maybe both against a lefty starter.

I meant righty starter, some days anyway.

[29] Well, I assume Swisher will play pretty much every day (barring normal rest).  You’re right that if Gardner is the starting CF against RHP (which I think he should be) then you have Melky off the bench.

One impact of this move is that it probably makes Melky more of a bench player, since Hinske will take the RF/LF ABs against RHP when you have Damon or Swisher DH.

I’d still love another RH bat; either a MI or a backup C with some punch would be ideal.

I guess it’s the comparison between the projections and the YTD data that’s confusing me.  Hinske’s average projection was for 85 BR/650, and 22 BRAR/650, but his actual numbers have him at 81 BR/650 and only 4 BRAR/650.  Seems like BRAR/650 should be ~18 or so.

Oh, I messed up the second table.  It shows BRAR for actual projected playing time, not for 650 PA.

I am completely failing to understand the Pirates.

Yeah, but was Hinske really going to be a building block for them?  What they got in return isn’t either but it’s a chance they can afford to make right now.

Why the somewhat large disparity between UZR and ZR for Hinske in right?

Well, I assume Swisher will play pretty much every day (barring normal rest).

Yes, most every day.  But he’ll get a day off now and then.  Also, some of the days Hinkse is starting they may have ARod on the bench.  Or Posada on the bench if he is resting.  I guess the only time they won’t have a decent righty on the bench is if all of their VERY good righty hitters are in the lineup (and Melky is in place of Damon).  And in that case, who would you PH for anyway?  Gardner, maybe.

I wouldn’t mind at all having a righty UIF or backup C with some pop.  I just don’t know where we’ll get one that is clearly an upgrade over Molina or Ransom, and also worth the cost.  Lopez is currently Arizona’s starting 2B, and they’ll probably expect to be compensated as such…

“Lopez is currently Arizona’s starting 2B, and they’ll probably expect to be compensated as such… “

Which is fine.  How much is half a season of a league averagish starting 2B worth to a team that’s 18 games out?  They don’t control him past this year.  I’m pretty sure one of the live arms the Yankees have eighty-gillion of at AA/AAA gets it done.

Why the somewhat large disparity between UZR and ZR for Hinske in right?

Not sure, although I generally assume when there’s a disparity like that it’s due to the chances being more difficult than average.  Looks like most of Hinske’s poor RF ZR is from his time in Boston, he was a little better in Toronto.  I don’t think there’s a big RF park factor in Fenway, but it could be partially to blame as well.

Yeah, but was Hinske really going to be a building block for them?  What they got in return isn’t either but it’s a chance they can afford to make right now.

I think the main confusion is why they would pay the YANKEES to take Hinske, and still only get back marginal propects who are 3 years away from helping (if ever).  You would figure (rightly I think) if they were going to pick up some salary they would want people with a higher ceiling - or closer to the majors - back.

Why the somewhat large disparity between UZR and ZR for Hinske in right?

If I’m reading it right, it is only 3 plays difference.  Probably sample size.

How much is half a season of a league averagish starting 2B worth to a team that’s 18 games out?

Well, the question is more what is it worth to other teams, right?  If other teams who need a starting 2B for a playoff push are calling about him (or even if AZ thinks they’ll get calls), he’ll cost more than just “one of the live arms”.  I don’t know if I’d want to give up McCallister+Nova for him for example. 

I wouldn’t mind if the Yankees were to call AZ and say, “before moving Lopez give us a call”, and see if the price is right.  I just figure he’ll end up costing too much.  We’ll see.

I am psyched the Yanks got Hinske, but for me one question screams out at me—why didn’t the Mets pick him up? Right now they have 3 guys starting at 1B or OF regularly who are OPSing below .700. I would imagine they would love to have Hinske playing in front of one of those scrubs.

Anyway, I’m glad they blew that one like they messed up DeRosa. Seriously, think how much better that lineup would be with Hinske playing instead of Martinez or Tatis and Derosa playing instead of Murphy.

I am psyched the Yanks got Hinske, but for me one question screams out at me—why didn’t the Mets pick him up?

Is Hinske Hispanic? 

But seriously, the answer is probably simple - Cashman > Minaya.

[38]  I don’t know the system well enough to comment on specific player combos.
I just don’t see that many contenders with holes at 2B, maybe Mil?

I think it’s worth a slight overpay to add every incremental 0.5-1.0 win, and worth doing it early, given the dogfight the Yanks are facing with Bos/TB.

Given the fact that the Yankees don’t generally have openings for more than a couple of pitchers per season, and they way overdraft pitching, they need to convert some of those arms into other talent through trades.  It’s up to Cashman/scouts to know who are the keepers.

The Pirates save $400k on Hinske and pick up some roster filler.  Not a bad deal.  Good deal for the Yankees, though.

I doubt anyone else was going to pony up much more than that and if they were, well they probably weren’t making the phone calls.

I don’t know the system well enough to comment on specific player combos.

Oh, I know you were speaking in generalities.  Nothing wrong with that, I personally prefer to use specific examples to set a baseline for discussion is all.  Just makes it easier for me to visualize.

I just don’t see that many contenders with holes at 2B, maybe Mil?

Part of the problem is trying to figure out who a “contender” is.  Just because a team is 10 back of the wild-card doesn’t mean they don’t consider themselves contenders.  Just a quick peek at a couple of teams…Lopez may be an upgrade over Castillo for the Mets.  He is certainly an upgrade over Kelly Johnson (at least this year so far) for Atlanta, etc.

they need to convert some of those arms into other talent through trades.  It’s up to Cashman/scouts to know who are the keepers.

Well, not only the keepers, but also who will be more valueable in the off-season or sometime next season.  E.g. Nova’s first exposure to AAA went well, and if he pitches well from here on out he may be worth more than a UIF rental in the off-season.

I’m not disagreeing with you on principle here.  I guess I’m trying to gauge more specifically what Lopez would be worth to you, and match it up to what he’ll probably go for.  I’d have no problem if Cashman called to start the conversation.  I just *think* that right now if he did it would be more than a little overpay to get him, so Cash would have to say, “keep me in mind”.

Minaya must have been asleep at the wheel.

Hinske would be the third best hitter in the Mets lineup right now.

I’m guessing that with Ransom or Pena as the 3B option, it meant ARod was going to get his 1 day off and be at 3B. Now, with Hinske, might we see ARod get 1.5 days off per week (.5 = DH)? Lots of reasons to like this move.

Hinske would be the third best hitter in the Mets lineup right now.

I’m so glad I’m not a Mets fan.  My best friend is…and baseball offers him zero joy right now.  He’s just shuffling through the summer.  It’s no way to live.

In addition to his part-time usefulness, I particularly like the depth Hinske offers, should health fail on the corners, and a longer-term option is required.  Does anyone really want to see Shelley Duncan back up?  Is that what would happen?

According to Joel Sherman, that was the plan.

[46] I’d go even further.  ARod probably gets 1 full day off, and 1 day at DH per week.  Damon and Swisher probably each get a day off or at DH, and Tex might even get 1 day at DH every 10 or so.

I think that gets Hinske up to about 4 days per week, which seems about right.

So who is out from the active?

Wouldn’t you assume Ransom?  What’s his role now?

Wouldn’t you assume Ransom?  What’s his role now?

I assume Pena is gone because Ransom is minimally a righty bat that the Yankees don’t have. And he is lost if DFA.

Which sucks because, though maybe the D stats don’t back it up, Pena looked competent to good on defense. And I prefer defense to mediocre offense.

Which sucks because, though maybe the D stats don’t back it up, Pena looked competent to good on defense. And I prefer defense to mediocre offense.

With Hinske on the team, you’re now quibbling over like.. 100 PA’s, if that. Ransom over Pena is thus not a big deal, and so, it makes sense to let Pena play everyday.

Pena’s not good enough to need to play every day (635 career minor league OPS).  His future is as a slick fielding utility guy.  Let him learn the role now.

Ransom is 33.  DFA his ass.

The Pirates are coughing up cash?  I thought the team with the bajillion dollar payroll was supposed to be the one forking over the dough as a tax for disrepecting the game.

well, NY is just getting a fraction of the revenue “sharing” money that they gave Pittsburgh back.  So, we are still getting screwed by the small-market Pirates.  In other news, the Pittsburgh Steelers used their shared NFL revenue to win a Superbowl.

Players feel strongly about playing for and against Joe Torre, apparently.

Piniella, Guillen are the least preferred managers.

Pena has way more use to the team right now than Ransom, on both sides of the ball.  Pena give the team a nice late inning defensive replacement.  Ransom, not so much.  Is Ransom really going to have enough plate appearances to justify keeping him and sending down Pena?  And even if he does, he’s not exactly a good hitter.

When it comes to prospects, Pittsburgh sures loves the Yanks’ sloppy seconds.

If you option Pena and somebody gets injured, you can bring Pena right back.  If you DFA Ransom and somebody gets hurt, you’re playing Pena every day and bringing Kevin Russo up to be his backup.  I’ll be mildly surprised if they don’t DFA Ransom before the season is out, because after all, he does stink, but I’ll be shocked if they DFA him today.

Yeah, if you grant that Pena > Ransom, then the only scenario where it would be advantageous to DFA Ransom instead of option Pena really is if there’s a 3-7 day injury/sickness to Jeter/Cano over the next two weeks.  Not really wroth it.

Optimal lineup tonight.

leaked UNCONFIRMED report of MLB players who failed 03 steroid test

Optimal lineup tonight.

Switch Cano/Posada and Matsui/Swisher, and it’s even better.  But that’s quibbling.

Cano left 19 men on base over weekend per FAN and he’s hitting under 225 with RISP this year and 265 for career.  Maybe the 5 spot not optimal.

leaked UNCONFIRMED report of MLB players who failed 03 steroid test

Taking a look at this 2003 steroid list, there are some big name players on there including Alex Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte, and Miguel Tejada. These are the players that have had steroid use confirmed of them, but they are joined by many other stars and even a couple potential Hall of Fame players. Some of those players include David Ortiz, Roberto Alomar, Ivan Rodriguez, Juan Gonzalez, Francisco Rodriguez, and Gary Sheffield.

Jonathan, do you have a source for this one?

Unfortunately, that’s EXCELLENT news, Jonathan!
May it be confirmed, God rest all their souls.

Deadspin suggesting the steroid leak is bollocks

Here’s the list that’s floating around.  Found it on a Mets blog.  Again, all unconfirmed:

1. Nomar Garciaparra
2. Manny Ramirez
3. Johnny Damon
4. Trot Nixon
5. David Ortiz
6. Shea Hillenbrand
7. Derek Lowe
8. Pedro Martinez
9. Brian Roberts
10. Jay Gibbons
11. Melvin Mora
12. Jerry Hairston
13. Jason Giambi
14. Alfonso Soriano
15. Raul Mondesi
16. Aaron Boone
17. Andy Pettitte
18. Jose Contreras
19. Roger Clemens
20. Carlos Delgado
21. Vernon Wells
22. Frank Catalanotto
23. Kenny Rogers
24. Magglio Ordonez
25. Sandy Alomar
26. Bartolo Colon
27. Brent Abernathy
28. Jose Lima
29. Milton Bradley
30. Casey Blake
31. Danys Baez
32. Craig Monroe
33. Dmitri Young
34. Alex Sanchez
35. Eric Chavez
36. Miguel Tejada
37. Eric Byrnes
38. Jose Guillen
39. Keith Foulke
40. Ricardo Rincon
41. Bret Boone
42. Mike Cameron
43. Randy Winn
44. Ryan Franklin
45. Freddy Garcia
46. Rafael Soriano
47. Scott Spiezio
48. Troy Glaus
49. Francisco Rodriguez
50. Ben Weber
51. Alex Rodriguez
52. Juan Gonzalez
53. Rafael Palmeiro
54. Carl Everett
55. Javy Lopez
56. Gary Sheffield
57. Mike Hampton
58. Ivan Rodriguez
59. Derrek Lee
60. Bobby Abreu
61. Terry Adams
62. Fernando Tatis
63. Livan Hernandez
64. Hector Almonte
65. Tony Armas
66. Dan Smith
67. Roberto Alomar
68. Cliff Floyd
69. Roger Cedeno
70. Jeromy Burnitz
71. Moises Alou
72. Sammy Sosa
73. Corey Patterson
74. Carlos Zambrano
75. Mark Prior
76. Kerry Wood
77. Matt Clement
78. Antonio Alfonseca
79. Juan Cruz
80. Aramis Ramirez
81. Craig Wilson
82. Kris Benson
83. Richie Sexson
84. Geoff Jenkins
85. Valerio de los Santos
86. Benito Santiago
87. Rich Aurilia
88. Barry Bonds
89. Andres Galarraga
90. Jason Schmidt
91. Felix Rodriguez
92. Jason Christiansen
93. Matt Herges
94. Paul Lo Duca
95. Shawn Green
96. Oliver Perez
97. Adrian Beltre
98. Eric Gagne
99. Guillermo Mota
100. Luis Gonzalez
101. Todd Helton
102. Ryan Klesko
103. Gary Matthews

I think 7 of those top 10 were on the 2004 Mets.

But this is all speculation until confirmed.

This’ll be fun for the rain out/delay.

I’m currently leaning towards “BS” on the list.

But a really well done BS list.

I feel like there aren’t enough random dudes on that list, but maybe steroids are that effective..

Yeah, the lack of randomness is what is throwing me, as well. There’s ENOUGH random guys for it to look pretty realistic, which is why I think it’s a really well-done BS list.

I think 7 of those top 10 were on the 2004 Mets.

Er, Sox.

It came out in his trial that Barry Bonds passed the 2003 test so any real list can not have Bonds name on it.  The list is BS.

Yeah, sorry, that was actually my first reason (not that Bonds specifically was on the list, as I had forgotten that), that I found it hard to believe that ALL the “known” steroid users were on the list, as I had to think that a goodly portion of them knew how to beat the test.

It definitely smells.

This looks exactly like a list of guys I would probably guess took steroids.

I think 7 of those top 10 were on the 2004 Mets.

Er, Sox.

7 of the top 8 actually.  and 8 of the top 8 were Sox at the time of the testing.  I can see why the players would be listed by current team, and why would the teams be listed by division, but after that it would be alphabetical, no?  Baltimore comes before Boston and Anaheim should be the first AL West team listed.  So yeah, it’s a well-faked list, but not a <b>very</i> well-faked list.

Whatever. Dave Roberts singlehandedly won the 2004 World Series for us, and he’s not on the list.