So what is Kenny Williams thinking right now?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oGdlJWfx1GA&NR=1

Well, Cashman seems to be playing this smart.  I’d be curious to know what would pique his interest, what he considers a good Nady or Swisher trade. 

Got to say I don’t really understand this:

Damon is entering the final season of his contract, and the Yankees believe he is invaluable as a leadoff man. Damon is not being shopped…

That seems like circa 1985 thinking.  So Jeter leads off and Swisher or Cano hits 2nd.  What does it matter?  I’m not saying must-trade-Damon; I’m saying explore his market as you are Swisher and Nady (with the understanding that Damon’s NTC makes it a challenge). 

…and the Yankees have no plans to trade designated hitter Hideki Matsui, who is coming off knee surgery and has a full no-trade clause.

No plans to or no opportunity to/hope of?

No plans to or no opportunity to/hope of?

i think these are synonymous at this point.

there is no way they can move Matsui, especially with Abreu still unemployed.

there are only 13 possible trade targets, since Matsui can’t be expected to play the field.  Boston, TB, Cleveland, Chicago, KC, Detroit, Minnesota, Oakland are all set at DH. 

Toronto has come out and said they are not spending any more money.

The Orioles have Huff, but I guess he could play 1B.  Still, NY and Baltimore probably wouldn’t make a trade for a significant player.

that leaves 3 teams.  Texas, LAA, and Seattle.

can’t see why LAA would trade talent for Matsui when they could easily afford Abreu. 

i guess there is a slim chance that Seattle would decide it’s worth spending money to win 75 games instead of 72 games, but thinking realistically, he’s basically unmovable.  and it’s not just his salary that’s holding him back.

and i’m not trying to imply that you don’t agree, B-Man, i’m just thinking out loud through the possibilities.

No I hear ya.  I gave up on a Matsui trade long ago.  Mine was a rhetorical question of sorts.  I was smirking inside at Kepner’s choice of words.  “No plans to” implied that they see Matsui as a cog when I think they’d happily shop him if they could.

Any thoughts on the supposed indispensability of Damon?

Here’s to hoping that Cashman isn’t trading in order to lower payroll.  And to dancing, mandolin-playing cows in my brain.  And to beer.  Who has some beer?  Beer?  Anyone?

re: Damon, i think there is a little spin there.

Damon’s salary and partial NTC is going to make him fairly difficult to trade, so it’s probably better from a PR standpoint to say that they “value” him too much to trade. 

i doubt that if someone called up and made a good offer for Damon, Cashman would say he is untouchable.  it’s more likely that no one is calling, so why make it seem like he is unwanted?

that’s how i see it. 

i like what Cashman is saying about Swisher or Nady, “we don’t HAVE to do anything” so he’s not going to make a trade just to make a trade.  what that means for Pettitte, i have no idea.  that ship may have sailed.

i’d like some beer.

Damon, while not indispensible, IMO is the best player of the lot (talking Matsui, Nady, Swisher and Damon).  He had his best year as a Yankee last year, getting on base at a .375 clip.  He sees a ton of pitches (10th in the AL in p/pa), is an excellent baserunner, and is a plus left fielder (according to VORP on the BP website, Damon was the second best LF in the AL last year, behind Carlos Quentin).  You’d need some serious value to legitimately justify trading him.  This is another contract year for him, so he’s going to be motivated to play…plus, he’s always busted his ass.

“He sees a ton of pitches”

I’m still eager to see a real study of the marginal value of seeing an extra pitch.  My estimate is 1/100*delta_ERA*depth_factor, where delta_era represents the value of getting past the starter into the (bad) middle relief, perhaps 1 run, and the depth factor depends on the total pitches the team sees and depends with a factor of 1/9 on the player’s extra marginal pitches/AB.  This might mean 6 runs/600 AB for 1 pitch over RP.

I’m still eager to see a real study of the marginal value of seeing an extra pitch. My estimate is 1/100*delta_ERA*depth_factor, where delta_era represents the value of getting past the starter into the (bad) middle relief, perhaps 1 run, and the depth factor depends on the total pitches the team sees and depends with a factor of 1/9 on the player’s extra marginal pitches/AB.  This might mean 6 runs/600 AB for 1 pitch over RP.

Are you implying its not even worth a look?  I would need to see how many pitches a “good” leadoff hitter sees compared to his RP counterpart.

I think he meant marginal in the economic sense or jargon, meaning differential in math terms, or value for each extra p/pa. Also, 6 runs are nothing to dismiss.

There must be a nonlinear component to this value, as (bad) relief pitching gets worse with depth, so getting the starter out earlier than expected not only gives you more plate appearances against worse competition, but against increasely worse competition.

This nonlinear component, if true, would imply that the value of having 2 players with good p/pa numbers (like Abreu and Giambi in 2007) is more than the simple sum of the isolated improvements.

The same compound effect should appear more strongly with obp, since less outs per PA imply more pitches per out in general. This sort of reasoning may be useful in determining the value of a specific player for a team, even if it does not measure the intrinsic value of the player itself.

Also, does the studies of how much runs a team will score take into account nonlinear interactions? I don´t know much on the subject, but having 9 batters that project to be x runs better than replacement level should add to more than only 9x runs better than rl.

(Just going for the triple post in a row now) If simulations of how many runs a team will score does take compound factors into consideration, then it would be nice to see a study, in the same line SG posted a while ago if it is better to have a balanced above average lineup or a single superstar and average players surrounding it, to see among the different ways a player can create runs, which one is more likely to generate further benefits.

Something on the line of having a lineup of players that are all likely to produce exactly x runs above average, but in one case all players derive their value from having a good obp, in another because all players have good slg, and in another where they have nice but not great both obp and slg. Don´t know how difficult it would be to run a simulation, but it may be an idea for these endless baseballess days.

[12] describes what I meant - the non-linear bit comes in the depth factor, which is probably a smeared step function.

We talked some about non-linear effects in the context of SG‘s early description of linear weights but someone will have to remind me if we concluded anything.

Dave- I have some beer my friend, oh do I have beer.
Dogfish Head, out of Delaware, is one of the top breweries in the nation.
I know Frog is nodding his head right now in agreement. They produce this product called World Wide Stout. Its been out for a while but I resisted because of the 8 bucks for a 12 oz. bottle.
Thurm the Katt (bless his little heart) gave me one in celebration of the J-Mans birthday. Maybe he gave it to me to help ensure that cheese and poultry and other cool foods would continue to fall his way for the rest of his days.
Back to stout. Its so complex and rich that a Corona drinker would be unable to finish a bottle.
I have not looked it up but the abv must be near 20%. More importantly it is so effin delicious. I suggest 50 to 55 degrees in a tulip glass, if not a pilsener glass.
Dont drink this stuff real cold. It would bury the many fine barley malt happenings that occur sip after sip. This stuff is not I repeat not for guys that think Sam Adams is good ale.
I’m going to pour one now, grill some lamb and asparagus and watch Stepbrothers.
I hope its funny.

Good luck with that T. i’d suggest a backup for Stepbrothers, i only made it 20 minutes in.

...mmm…Dogfish Head.  I’ve had one of those before.  Delish.  Never had their World Wide Stout, though.  I’m almost surprised you’re eating with it…sounds like quite a meal in its own right.

E- total piece of shit. Watched the entire thing. Pity me.
How did you feel sbout In Bruges? I may have it at the top of my list for 08.
Great cast, excellent script.
Dave- WWS was the carb, know what I’m sayin? This mick had no spuds with lamb.
Me wee granny would be freaked. If you can deal with an eight dollar ale, this is the man.
I’m gonna chill with some Laphroig and a cube, watch a little Roadrunner or Foghorn. Be asleep by 2330. Football sunday.
Iggles-Ravens in da bowl.

Laphroaig. Just looked at the label. Fukkin Gaels.

Chad Jennings has a fantastic post about this year and beyond:

http://community.thetimes-tribune.com/blogs/yankees/archive/2009/01/17/anticipating-holes-in-the-yankees-lineup.aspx

some Laphroig and a cube

You have some resiliant taste buds, thurm. Islays are the best, but that has a little too much of the Scottish earth going for me.

Dogfish Head Midas Touch is an interesting brew, and I mean “interesting” in a good way. That’s been my most recent sampling of theirs. Muscat grapes and safron. Who’d have thunk? Good article on Dogfish and “extreme” beer in the New Yorker.
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/11/24/081124fa_fact_bilger

I like Jennings’s work but I wish he would learn a smidge of modern baseball knowledge.

Ditto 23.  Michael Young isn’t a viable future Yankee option at short, the Shelley Duncan era has come and gone, and David Dellucci isn’t playing centerfield for anyone.

I like the Laphroaig quarter cask: even peatier and earthier than the regular.  I just bought one bottle for myself and another for my brother.

I meant more his saying Cano had 72 RBIs last year etc., or Gardner has to have fewer K’s in the majors, but yeah.

Ed- You are a very good brother!
Anyone know why the Eagles are letting Michael Moore guest coach today?
Ain’t workin out too well.

Pie traded to the O’s

Mmnnn . . .  pie and beer.

Well, I’m off to Moe’s!

Mmm… DogFishHead.  Chickory Stout is very tasty stuff.  Too bad they don’t make much of it.  Punkin is good too.  I can’t handle their IPAs and other ridiculously powerful (and, to my taste buds, syrupy) brews.