The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Saturday, July 7, 2007

Johnny Damon, Left Fielder

I saw that Johnny Damon, who has 2.5 seasons left on a contract where he’s being paid $13 million per annum to be the CF, started in LF.  Running the zone rating numbers from last night it doesn’t sound like Damon distinguished himself, as he converted only 1 of 3 playable chances into outs.  That’s just one game, so I’m not so worried about that.  I like the move in theory, for a few reasons.

1) .908 > .834.  Those are Damon and Hideki Matsui’s career zone ratings in LF.  While Damon hasn’t played left field since 2001, even with just a normal rate of decline equivalent to about 1.5 runs a season he should be about five runs better than Matsui defensively over a half season.

2) .349/.429/.664.  That’s what Matsui has hit as a DH in his career, although it’s only over 170 plate appearances.  Research has shown that there is a DH effect and that most players do underperform there.  I think it’s fair to assume that Matsui, at least so far, doesn’t seem to suffer from it.

3) .320/.381/.477.  Since May 3, that’s Melky Cabrera’s line.  Combine that with his .911 zone rating this year (equivalent to around being 11 runs above average over a full-season), you have a 22 year-old plus CF.  I don’t know that Melky is that good, and we can’t pretend April didn’t happen, but with the likelihood that the Yankees aren’t making the postseason this season, playing Melky full-time in CF can let them see what they’ve got there for the future.

4) 2 years, $26 million.  That’s what’s left on Damon’s deal after this season.  The Yankees need to determine if Damon can be their LF over the next couple of years if he can’t handle CF any longer.

In the most amazing scenario ever, the Yankees beat the Angels last night, 14-9. Alex Rodriguez played brilliant defense and homered to increase a lead the Yankees didn’t seem to want to keep from one run to three.  He also got two more tabloid covers in the process.  At some point, the clowns that wanted “A-Fraud” run out of town need to step forward and admit just how wrong they were.

Scott Proctor broke out his slow curve and dominated the Angels over 1.2 innings.  Since the

Proctor has looked like a different pitcher. 

I mentioned Melky earlier, and he also had a great game, going 3 for 5 and moving his season line up to .279/.337/.390.  His offensive YTD performance when compared to other AL CF is about 4 runs below average, but his defense makes him average, at least so far. 

Andy Pettitte stunk again after calling his teammates out.  His numbers are now closer to where most projections would have had him, and his early performance masked his somewhat mediocre peripherals so this is probably just a correction.  Hopefully his health is ok and not to blame.

Roger Clemens takes on the difficult John Lackey today, on Old-Timers’ Day.  Get it?  Clemens is pitching on Old-Timers Day?  Because he’s Old!!!!  You see how that works?????  Expect plenty of stupid headlines tomorrow one way or the other.  For some reason I have this idea of Lackey dominating the Yankees, but in 11 career starts he has an ERA of 5.35 and is only 4-6.

--Posted at 8:10 am by SG / 26 Comments | - (645)

Comments

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I would also like to add:  Please skip the All Star Game, Alex.

If Melky can play above average CF for the remainder of the season, Abreu is almost certainly gone.

maybe i am wrong, but i thought it was more or less a given that Abreu was gone after this year.

So, what, Matsui to RF, Damon LF, Melky CF? Or…do we pick up a free agent?

I’d guess that whether or not Abreu is gone depends on how he hits post-All Star break.  If Tabata has a strong remainder of the season, he may be considered as the RF in 2009, so the Yankees may want to keep Abreu as a stopgap, provided he ends the year with an OPS of around .800 or so I’d think.

I could see Matsui in RF, Damon in LF, and Melky in center, if Giambi manages to come back this season. Then they have to fill first base somehow.  Juan Miranda seems to be doing well in Trenton since being called up.  He’s already 24, so they may push him up to Columbus. 

<u>Free agent 1B/OF possiblities (some are dependent on options being picked up/declined)</u>

Adam Dunn
Barry Bonds
Brad Wilkerson
Cliff Floyd
Dmitri Young
Doug Mientkiewicz
Eric Byrnes
Geoff Jenkins
Ichiro Suzuki
Jeff Conine
Jermaine Dye
Jose Guillen
Kevin Millar
Kosuke Fukudome
Luis Gonzalez
Matt Stairs
Milton Bradley
Moises Alou
Reggie Sanders
Ryan Klesko
Sammy Sosa
Scott Hatteberg
Sean Casey
Shannon Stewart
Shawn Green
Shea Hillenbrand
Tony Clark
Trot Nixon

Not a great group, but there may be a couple of guys you could take a one year flier on if you want to hold RF or 1B for a year.

Juan Miranda seems to be doing well in Trenton since being called up

===
Oddly though, Miranda has been DHing for Trenton.

Watching another season of Bobby Abreu playing for a contract is a very unappealing alternative. He appears to be too mentally weak (for a player of his ability) to handle it well.

I would use that money to extend A-Rod’s contract.

If Gonzalez (old), Jenkins (platoon guy), or Wilkerson (bouncing back, but no one seems to like him) would be nice for a year. I don’t know that they could get Dye for a year. Alou is probably done. Maybe Stairs for 1st/4th OF/DH/PH.

Abreu isn’t coming back for 17 million, no way no how.

Melky is awesome. I’m so glad they didn’t deal him.

Shouldn’t Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter be on that list?

I would love to see Abreu have a great 2nd half, and the Yankees pick up his option and trade him like they did with Sheffield

Here we go again with Erubiel Durazo

http://pinstripespa.blogspot.com/2007/07/yankees-sign-erubiel-durazo.html

If Damon can bring his numbers back up to something approaching his performance in 2006, an outfield of him, Melky and Matsui wouldn’t be all that bad.  He and Melky would certainly be able to cover plenty of ground out there.  If Tabata is ready by 2009, Matsui can be shifted to DH.  As for Miranda, I don’t think anyone seriously thinks he can be even an average major league 1B.  I believe there’s a better chance of that happening with Andy Phillips and even that possibility is rather slim.

Matsui in RF is not going to be good.  He can’t throw. 

Matsui had said he wouldn’t mind giving 1B a shot.  You think Yankees would do it this season, or wait until next season? 

As a temporary solution, Damon is LF is alright, and since he’s signed for a couple more years, there is probably no choice, but that’s basically eating a supposedly major offense spot.

Matsui doesn’t have the arm of Abreu or Melky but he’s not Damon or Bernie either.  Moreover, his biggest weakness as an outfielder, namely, going back on balls, would be alleviated somewhat by the relatively small right field at Yankee stadium.  As for putting Matsui at 1B (or Damon for that matter) it just shifts one offensive hole for another (and opens the door for Josh Phelps-type defense at the position), unless, of course, the Yanks pony up for a mediocre Bobby Abreu in 2008.

if Durazo is healthy, and that’s a big IF, this is an awesome move.

As for Miranda, I don’t think anyone seriously thinks he can be even an average major league 1B

i’m not saying you’re wrong, but isn’t he only 24?

Not a great group, but there may be a couple of guys you could take a one year flier on if you want to hold RF or 1B for a year.

not a great group, but a hell of lot better than the dreck that was available this offseason.

actually, i wouldn’t be shocked if one or two of the guys on that list are in pinstripes 3 weeks from now.

Matsui has been putting up an .850 ops line, somewhat consistently.  Even considering the drop off this year, offensively, he would be better than any of the folks Yanks has been putting up at first. 

And I just think finding a plus offensive of, rather than 1b might be easier.  That said, I don’t know the FA or free agent situation.  And next year, I say plug Damon back in CF, and have Melky back up.  Depending on who is added to the team, Damon can be moved to LF, and Melky can play CF.  Or depending on who ever gets injured, and I assume injuries are a given, Melky will still get plenty of playing time.

2 words, Barry Bonds.

ha!

I couldn’t find confirmation of a Durazo signing anywhere but at the supplied link.  It may be out there, but mi no habla espanol. If its real, I’d be surprised it he doesn’t get the either the Carlos Pena or Josh Phelps treatment.

Eurbiel Durazo is an older, worse fielding version Josh Phelps.  Why would you expect Joe Torre play him over the guys he already has at first?

If Damon is healthy enough to vacate the DH spot and Giambi is unhealthy enough to be unavailable, Ruby might be valuable there.  He’s got a longer track record than Phelps and he’s over 30, so Torre might give him a longer trial period.

i would think he was signed as a DH. 

Giambi IS certainly unavailable.  the question is what to do with Damon.

Cairo back at first today.  Guess Phillips’ neck isn’t 100%.

Did some web surfing.

Just discovered that Erubiel Durazo is on Mexico’s team in the Pan Am Games which are in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and run from July 13-29.  Incidentally, Vinny Castilla is the manager.

Shouldn’t Rowand be on that list

he’s not old enough to be considered.

Abraham posted this:

UPDATE, 4:41 p.m.: E-mailed Brian Cashman regarding Erubiel Durazo. “Have not signed him,” was the response.

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