The Curse of Jerry Hairston, Jr./Eric Hinske:
 

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Johan and the AL East

Johan Santana continues to be a topic of discussion during the Hot Stove season. Although there are probably other teams in the mix, the most likely scenario sees him going to either Boston or the Yankees, with Boston the probable favorite right now. Long-time lurker and first-time poster plank asked:

I'd love to see the standing simulations done with the proposed yankees and red sox trades for Santana. How far ahead would the Sox be with him? Would the Yankees pull ahead with Johan?


Since I take requests, I ran three sets of Diamond Mind Simulations, with three hypothetical scenarios:

Scenario 1
Santana to the Yankees for Phil Hughes and Melky Cabrera. While the Yankees would likely have to include other prospects in the deal, I don't have any idea which prospects they would be so I left that out of the equation.

Scenario 2
Santana to Boston for Jacoby Ellsbury and Jed Lowrie. Same deal with the prospects here.

Scenario 3
Santana to Boston for Jon Lester and Jed Lowrie. Same deal again with the prospects.

First off, let's revisit the CAIRO/Diamond Mind simulations with no trades.

Team W L RF RA Div WC
Bos08 97.0 65.0 879 716 50 30
NYA08 96.1 65.9 941 769 45 34
Tor08 87.1 74.9 804 741 6 14
Tam08 78.1 83.9 820 848 0 1
Bal08 69.1 92.9 785 912 0 0


So this is our baseline to see what kind of a difference Santana would make, although I think it's a little bullish on the Yankees..

Let's look at scenario 1 first.

Team W L RF RA Div WC
NYA08 97.6 64.4 942 758 56 28
Bos08 96.1 65.9 869 708 38 44
Tor08 86.3 75.7 802 747 7 12
Tam08 78.3 83.7 824 851 0 1
Bal08 69.7 92.3 786 908 0 0


Getting Santana improved the Yankees by 11 runs allowed, and 1.5 wins. It took them from a 45% chance of winning the division to a 56% chance. This doesn't mean that Santana was only worth 11 runs above Phil Hughes, but it does mean this:

a) 220 innings of Santana vs. 160 innings of Phil Hughes plus 60 innings of Kei Igawa = 30 run upgrade.
b) Moving Johnny Damon to CF to replace Melky = -10 runs saved defensively (range plus arm)
c) Moving Hideki Matsui to LF instead of DH = -9 runs saved defensively
d) More AB for Jason Giambi and Brett Gardner, who would probably be the fourth OF if Melky gets traded= no net change in runs scored. Any upgrade from Giambi playing more (although I still restricted his playing time to about 300 PA per season) would be mitigated by more PA from Gardner.

So the Yankees upgrade their pitching by 30 runs and downgrade their defense by 19 runs, an 11 run overall improvement.

For Scenario 2 here's what happened:

Team W L RF RA Div WC
Bos08 99.7 62.3 883 691 61 22
NYA08 95.1 66.9 936 773 31 44
Tor08 87.1 74.9 811 748 7 15
Tam08 77.9 84.1 823 857 1 1
Bal08 68.8 93.3 792 922 0 0


Santana to Boston for Ellsbury+ improves Boston's pitching by about 25 runs (mainly replacing Wakefield and Lester innings). It changes them from a projected 97 wins to a projected 99.7 wins and improves their odds of winning the AL East to 61%. It's also worth noting that the Yankees got a win worse, ostensibly because they'd face Santana 3-5 times a season.

Lastly, scenario 3:

Team W L RF RA Div WC
Bos08 99.7 62.3 881 684 66 25
NYA08 95.7 66.3 937 775 30 50
Tor08 86.6 75.4 807 747 5 16
Tam08 77.4 84.6 824 857 0 1
Bal08 70.4 91.6 797 911 0 0


In this instance, Boston saved even more runs as they lost more innings by Lester and kept Ellsbury AND Coco Crisp which gave them a better defense when they were able to play the two together. This scenario improves the Red Sox's chances at the AL East to 66%.

So put it all together and what does it mean? Santana makes the Yankees a slightly better team than Boston although the difference is fairly small. If Boston gets Santana in either case, they gain a 3 win advantage on the Yankees. It is worth noting that the Yankees are still the second-most likely favorites to make the playoffs but once they get there they'd be staring at the specter of matching up against Santana and Beckett.

--Posted at 11:52 am by SG / 23 Comments | - (1327)

Comments

Page 1 of 1 pages:

So, where’s the silver lining here?

I hope at least Bill Smith gets more pieces from Boston from their farm weakening them in the long term…or that Santana sits till July.


If the yanks pull the WC we won’t face boston until the LCS. That helps.

The silver lining is that the Yankees will very likely reach the playoffs with (84%) or without (75% in scenario 2, 80% in 3, and 80% in the baseline) Santana. The random chaotic nature of baseball (who gets injured and for how long, who slumps, who outperforms, lucky hits, etc) will have a much bigger impact on the Yankees’ fortunes than Santana’s destination.

Thanks a lot, SG!

Sorta depressing, but quite interesting!!

By the by, with the poor performance in the playoffs last year, I think we as fans have (and I KNOW the media has) sorta overlooked how excellent the Yankees played in the second half of last season.

This should be a very good team next year, and that’s withOUT Joba and Hughes doing what they very well COULD do (which is be awesomerageous).

Ever since A-Rod resigned, I have been quite pleased with looking forward to the 2008 season.

Final point!

Did anyone see the Josh Hamilton deal?

Volquez is a nice pick-up for Hamilton, I think.

Hi lads.
No funny stuff tonight.
I’ve got a aunt and unck enroute to St.Paul Mn. from Belfast to claim the remains of my recently departed cousin. It gets worse.
He’d been here illegally because after 9/11 the clampdown on lads like himself ensured his deportation posthaste.
I am on looking for some advice on what federal agency I can steer them towards to help expidite the the release of his remains and his eventual return to Northern Ireland.
I know a lotta you fellas are well versed in law and I cant tell you how much I would appreciate any help you could give me.If you have any help click on my user name and send me an e-mail.
Thanks lads. Sorry for the holiday downer. real sorry.
                                      old thurman fan

Terribly sorry, thurm.

I sent you an e-mail with some info. The link I sent has a phone number for you to call.

Thank you again BC.

sorry thurm, that sounds really intense. condolences.

Thurm, condolences to you and your family.

Thurm, I’ll hoist one tonight in your cousin’s honor.

Thanks Guys.
Things to be working out as well as can be expected. It seems my cuz was feeling lousy for a while,failed to seek help and by the time his girlfriend got him to go to the hospital some infection felled him.
Thanks to all. Love your familys cause ya never know.
Please someone write about baseball,books, movies, beer or food.

I’ll oblige you, thurm.

Has anyone seen the Times article about Guidry?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/23/sports/baseball/23guidry.html

Poor guy - he is just waiting for the Yankees to call him about some sort of job. Meanwhile, Torre is totally screwing him over (granted, Honeycutt is clearly a better pitching coach, but still!), and Guidry is totally cool in the article about Torre, too.

I loved the line, “Joe explained some things, and I said: ‘Hey, that’s fine. I didn’t call to see if I can get a job. I just called to see how you were doing.’”

Poor Gator.

BC,

Yeah, I laughed at that line from Gator too.

I wonder whether he was overmatched as p. coach or if that’s just perception. At any rate, now that he’s coached one team, he’ll undoubtably be afforded old-boy status and pick up work somewhere.

i’m a gator fan but i always considered him more of a figurehead than an actual nitty gritty coach. he was such a balanced, graceful, awesome pitcher in his own right. with his very own slider of doom. stuff you can’t neccesarily teach (unless you’re sparky lyle apparently). if randy johnson was a pitching coach he’d slap everyone on the rack to stretch em out real good, pass out Joe Dirt mullet wigs and use doves as target practice.

there’s a great bit in moneyball where i forget who says you’re probably better off having a coach who was bad/marginal in his playing days, because he doesn’t try to turn you into himself. kevin long might be able to help you with a specific hitch in your swing whereas eddie murray may just laugh at you and flick you in the nads.

i suppose with a staff of veteran aces a guy like gid can instill confidence and calm and not have to worry about mechanics all of the time. but we’ve got a bunch of youngins and a bullpen full of shmoes, and on top of that some aging dudes who may need to rethink their approach.

Thurm, I have nothing specific to offer except suggest that you try the offices of your senators of representatives.  They can help cut through red tape.  And of course my condolences.

To all of you, Merry Christmas, Happy New Year, and a belated Hannukah!

Indeed! Merry Christmas, everybody!

Happy Holidays everyone! Condolences, Thurm. SG, this is really interesting. I’ve been curious about this for some time. Something else that I think would be interesting is to see how the Yankees would be affected if they traded Hughes, Melky, and IPK. I guess that would make a rotation of Santana/Wang/Pettitte/Mussina/Joba.

Thank you everyone for making me laugh and smile through this entire Yankee year!  Even my Red Sox friends (I lived in New England for five years) think you guys are great!
-A Queens Interloper

Just wanted to drop in and wish everyone a Merry Christmas!

Yes, I’m on RLYW on Christmas.  But everyone else is napping in my house.

SG/others, I’m wondering about Melky vs Ellsbury.  I did some tooling around the site but couldn’t find Ellsbury #s, though I thought there was a RS CAIRO projection somewhere.

Anyway, aren’t they kind of the same player, only Ellsbury has more hype because he did well in small sample size last year?

I’m wondering about Melky vs Ellsbury.  I did some tooling around the site but couldn’t find Ellsbury #s, though I thought there was a RS CAIRO projection somewhere.

Anyway, aren’t they kind of the same player, only Ellsbury has more hype because he did well in small sample size last year?

Sorry, just saw this.

I wouldn’t say they are the same kind of player, but they could possibly have similar value.  I’ll write a post about it.

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