Sunday, July 29, 2007
Joba Chamberlain - MLE and Relief Conversion
By request from Fabian, here are Joba Chamberlain's minor league stats, MLE (major league equivalency) and his relief stats if you convert his line as a starter to that of a reliever, using Dan Szymborski's Start/Relief Conversion Tool.First up, his minor league stats un-adjusted.
| Team | Last | First | Year | Org | W | L | S | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| Tampa | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2.02 | 7 | 7 | 40.0 | 25 | 9 | 0 | 11 | 51 |
| Trenton | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 4 | 2 | 0 | 3.44 | 7 | 7 | 39.3 | 32 | 15 | 4 | 15 | 64 |
| Scranton | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 |
| Total | 2.56 | 15 | 15 | 84.3 | 61 | 24 | 4 | 27 | 125 |
Next up, his MLE (major league equivalency). These are based on 2006 park and league factors because I don't have 2007 data available, but should hopefully be in the ballpark. I use this 2006 MLE spreadsheet as my base for my MLEs, with a few tweaks. This is not a projection of what Chamberlain would do in the majors, this is a translation of his actual YTD performance in the minors. For more than you could possibly want to know about MLEs, you can check out this link
| Team | Last | First | Year | Org | MW | ML | MS | MERA | G | GS | MIP | MH | MER | MHR | MBB | MSO |
| Tampa | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2.92 | 7 | 7 | 40.0 | 34 | 13 | 1 | 15 | 32 |
| Trenton | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 2 | 4 | 0 | 5.54 | 7 | 7 | 39.0 | 39 | 24 | 9 | 20 | 44 |
| Scranton | Chamberlain | Joba | 2007 | NYA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.80 | 1 | 1 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 7 |
| Total | 6 | 5 | 0 | 4.07 | 15 | 15 | 84 | 77 | 38 | 10 | 36 | 83 |
Since Joba's MLE has been accumulated as a starter, the last thing I did here is run his MLE through the start/relief conversion tool to get the following line, assuming 25 innings over the rest of the season.
| W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO |
| 2 | 1 | 3.24 | 25 | 0 | 25 | 20 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
Just remember that translating performances across leagues is an imperfect science, particularly for pitchers (see Igawa, Kei). How a player accrues his numbers can be as important as the numbers themselves and even moreso, especially the further they are from the majors, so take that into account when looking at these. And as every baseball dork will tell you, sample size is always an issue. We have a grand total of 84 professional innings to gauge Chamberlain's ability as far as how his undeniable physical talents translate into his ability to get professional baseball players out.
Since I said I'd stop bitching about this move and I consider myself a man of my word, I will provide no further comment except to wish Joba the best regardless of where he goes from here.
Comments
I am still stumped as to why the Yankees don’t use Edwar Ramirez in this role instead, and either use Joba as a 5th starter (ahead of Moose) or just leave him to develop in AAA.
SG, I am sure you have more than enough to do, but how would Edwar’s projections stack up against Joba’s?
Too bad Farnsie diminished his trade value so much yesterday
Edwar’s MLE is much better than Joba’s, but I’d guess Colter Bean’s MLE was off the charts at one time too. I’d always consider stuff, not just numbers.
That being said, I like Edwar’s chances to be serviceable if he got a normal usage pattern.
W/L: 2-1
ERA: 2.93
G: 26
IP: 43
H: 30
R: 14
HR: 3
BB: 22
K: 59
Since I have promised to no longer comment about the usage of Chamberlain in the major league pen, make of these numbers what you will.
I am still stumped as to why the Yankees don’t use Edwar Ramirez in this role…
Are you really that stumped by Torre’s serial bullpen mismanagement?
I’m just resigned to it.
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