odds are he will either have to start getting more hits to maintain his value or his value is going to regress towards his batting average.

I’m thinking it is going to be the former.  Over the last week or so, Giambi has looked more like...well Giambi.  He’s been hitting the ball with more authority to the right side, and also to left-center with authority.  Before someone pulls out FanGraphs or something, I don’t know if he’s hitting MORE balls to left center, I just think what he is hitting there has more on it.

So, I think more hits will start falling, which can only be good.  League average 1B with the bat?  I think he definitely can be.  Above average?  Enough to even out the defensive problems?  Maybe.  Elite offensive 1B justifying his salary?  Never say never, but I’d give it about a .01% chance.

What this tells me is that what Giambi’s doing is extremely rare, and that odds are he will either have to start getting more hits to maintain his value or his value is going to regress towards his batting average.

I suppose it’s rare, and Giambi will have to get more hits to maintain his value because when the offensive levels rise as it gets warmer, that line is going to be worth less. But Giambi’s peripherals are slightly worse, but close to his peripherals in his 06 season. I don’t see why Giambi couldn’t be a productive hitter all season at .183 in this offensive environment if it were able to maintained.

Of course, he’ll hit better than this because all that is missing from his line right now is a few singles. His BB/SO rate is the best it’s been since his peak, on top off all the other strong peripherals makes me think that his average is going to rise when it gets warmer out.

I would guess that a player hitting 0.180 back in the day would have gotten cut - but also consider that using 0.2 (absolute) and OPS+ (relative) is distortive given the rise in offense.

distortive in the wrong direction though.  back in the day, a .2 could still play, but with the increase in offense, that type of player is more likely to be cut.  unless you are talking about this year specifically, b/c offense is down so far.

I think we can at least say that Giambi is no longer an offensive liability.

Right, that makes 0.18/120 weirder now, though the other effect goes the other way.

Where do I find OPS+ btw?  I thought Giambi was there before improving his stats last start (OPS 0.799->0.810).  Maybe just rounding.

How about the link above?  So 122 now.

I would guess that a player hitting 0.180 back in the day would have gotten cut

Not if he was leading the team in HR at the time.

Hmm, would Giambi have gotten the chance to hit his last two?  Anyway I would think he would have come under great pressure to change his approach.  Didn’t even great players get booed just for king?

I rather seem him continue to hit like a freak.

I would guess that a player hitting 0.180 back in the day would have gotten cut...

Depends on which day we’re back in.

Didn’t even great players get booed just for king?

See above.

Well, true over a significant part of the post-WWII covered by SG‘s data set?

Giambi is the poor man’s Adam Dunn.  Fortunately for him, he’s not getting paid by a poor man.

Giambi’s BA is almost purely a product of bad luck. BABIP is absurdly low .139. He will start getting more hits. His xBA is .329!

Giambi is outhitting Dunn and has every year of Dunn’s career except for last year and 2004. Adam Dunn isn’t anything more than a good DH, which is about what Giambi looks like this year.

Giambi’s BA is almost purely a product of bad luck.

bad luck, or are teams actively creating uck by employing the shift?

Giambi’s BA is almost purely a product of bad luck.

I wouldn’t go that far, but as we talked about in an earlier thread on Giambi, I think Giambi’s low average is a combination of three things.

1) Bad luck
2) The Shift
3) Poor foot speed

Giambi’s BABIP as a Yankee has typically been about .040 points below his xBABIP (LD% + 0.12) which should cover items 2 and 3.  His current BABIP of 0.139 is .127 lower than xBABIP of .266.  If we give him a BABIP .040 points lower than .266, he’s at .226.  That means his line is short about 7 singles.  Add 7 singles to his line and he’d be at .258/.395/.548.

bad luck, or are teams actively creating uck by employing the shift?

Yeah, from my own purely observational viewpoint, Giambi has lost a fair number of line drives to the “second baseman” in the shift. That’s not something that’s going to be modeled well by xBA. As long as Giambi doesn’t hit the other way, it’s as if the team has an extra fielder on the field against him. xBA can’t account for that.

Cowboy Pinup- That’s really not a fair way to look at it. Dunn is just entering his best years while Giambit is leaving his prime.

Is the shift getting used more/more precisely on Giambi?  I seem to recall that few teams employed it when he first came to NY.

WFAN is reporting that Kennedy will start Friday against the Mets.

Giambi’s hit charts really don’t look like those of a dead pull hitter.  The shift is effective against him because he will hit the ball on the ground to the right side if you pitch him in certain locations.  The shift is almost a no-lose proposition because if your pitcher misses his spot away, Giambi will almost certainly NOT hit the ball on the ground.  When he gets the ball in the air, he hits it to left or center more than half the time.  Similar shifts are employed against guys like Ortiz and Thome (and until recently, Bonds) for the same reason.

Now don’t get me wrong, I doubt that anyone would love to see Giambi slap a few balls through the left side of the infield against the shift any more than I would.  But I think that at least some of the time, he does go the other way when he gets a pitch to hit the other way.  He just hits those pitches in the air.

Sleepy, that’s a perfectly fair way to look at it. Dunn has only outperformed Giambi when Giambi is hurt. Dunn will be more valuable in the future, but in response to someone referring to Giambi as a “poor man’s Dunn”, I don’t think future value is all that relevant. Giambi is outhitting him right now.

Kennedy will start Friday against the Mets

Is Yankees-Mets on eight days rest really the best timing for his return to the show?

I believe IPK will get an inning or two tonight as a tuneup.

Presumably they’ll have him throw a partial game (even simulated) in there.  But, yeah, they might have gotten another spot-starter and let him solidify his previous game’s gains.

Is Yankees-Mets on eight days rest really the best timing for his return to the show?

He’s going to pitch an inning tonight and then go on three days rest I believe.

I’ve been encouraged because over the last 4 games, I’ve seen Giambi hit more balls to left. At least I think I have.

Is Yankees-Mets on eight days rest really the best timing for his return to the show?

The Mets are a pretty average offensive team right now and are pretty thin in terms of bench depth to produce a dangerous DH. I’d prefer he start against them than the D-rays, assuming the tune up keeps him fresh.

I think doing this is the best decision. I’d honestly rather have Kennedy work out his problems in the majors than to deal with Igawa starting another game.

Now WFAN is saying Kennedy Thursday, Rasner Friday.  Igawa to the bullpen.

I would have let Kennedy get another start under his belt in the minors, myself.

Igawa to the bullpen.

Why?

Why?

Late to the party but...perhaps Eiland sees something he believes he can fix if Igawa is around him?  Maybe the Yankees are hoping Igawa can have a few good low-leverage outings in the pen and build trade-value?  Remember, the Yankees would be happy to eat however many $$ they need to if Igawa can have trade value as a middle-reliever.

Or maybe Girardi has outlawed coffee as well, and Cashman is trying to be one of the team (no coffee) and is too tired to care.