I don’t know; I guess that I’m an Ellsbury skeptic.  I look at the numbers that he compiled in 352 ABs in Pawtucket last year and those numbers don’t scream major league star to me—a .276 BA with mediocre plate discipline and no power.  Are those 116 ABs in the major leagues supposed to suggest that Ellsbury became a “better” player once he was promoted?

The projections do show Ellsbury as better than Cabrera next year, but it is relatively close.  Is the difference between them statistically significant?  I would not be willing to bet anything that Ellsbury has a higher OPS than Cabrera next year.

I look at the numbers that he compiled in 352 ABs in Pawtucket last year and those numbers don’t scream major league star to me

Well, he’s not really projected to be a star.  He’s projected to be maybe a half win or a win better than an average CF on offense.  The defense will determine how good he really is.

Is the difference between them statistically significant?

8-10 runs over a full season is pretty significant, although there is a park factor here that helps Ellsbury compared to Cabrera.

I would not be willing to bet anything that Ellsbury has a higher OPS than Cabrera next year.

But OPS is just one part of a player’s value.  Baserunning and defense make a difference too.  Ellsbury may still be able to be more valuable than Melky even if he doesn’t out-OPS him.

I do think Ellsbury is over-hyped, but all I’m doing here is answering a question about whether or not he’s better than Melky.  Right now, it seems that way, although it’s close enough that it could go either way.

I definitely think Ellsbury is better, but I really doubt the difference between the two is “centerpiece” and “throw-in” as many seem to think.

How much of this is the fact that Ellsbury is a “top prospect” while Melky is an “average major league CF”?  I wonder if Melky were still in triple A and projected as the Yankees starting CF next year, if he would have more perceived value. 

Ellsbury has benefitted from the Red Sox hype-machine (and, in fairness, from his solid contribution to the WS winners).  Melky, it seems, was dropped onto the Yankees before there could a ton of hype about him as a propect. 

It is hard to believe that Melky is a year younger than Ellsbury.

“But OPS is just one part of a player’s value.  Baserunning and defense make a difference too.  Ellsbury may still be able to be more valuable than Melky even if he doesn’t out-OPS him.”
How many bases is Ellsbury going to have to steal to be that much better than Melky if he’s out-OPS when he plays in a better offensive park? I guess his defensive play could give Ellsbury the edge, but he would have to be what, an 80% basestealer with something like 50 steals?

Not that we can know for sure, but do the Twins still prefer the Coco as well?

That would simply mean to me that they don’t see value in Melky, period. I’m more than fine with him on our team. With two years major league service, let’s see if he can step it up a bit. </end hopeless optimism here…

Hawkins finalized his deal…we’re paying him 4 times as much as Prior!

How many bases is Ellsbury going to have to steal to be that much better than Melky if he’s out-OPS when he plays in a better offensive park?

Steals are worth .22 runs. Caught stealings are worth -.38 runs.

So if Melky is worth 5 runs more than Ellsbury with the stick, it’d take something like 32 SB and 5 CS to catch up to him.  But baserunning also includes non SB base-running, and that could also be worth a handful of runs, something like 2-3.

Hawkins finalized his deal…we’re paying him 4 times as much as Prior!

Seems reasonable.  He’ll probably pitch 4 times as many innings.

” But baserunning also includes non SB base-running, and that could also be worth a handful of runs, something like 2-3.”
Non-steal baserunning would be covered in OPS though.

Non-steal baserunning would be covered in OPS though.

Huh?  How so?  If Ellsbury scores from first on a double that someone else doesn’t score on how is that covered in OPS?  If he tags and scores on a shallow fly ball that someone else might not be able to, how would that be covered in OPS?  If he scores on a shallow single from second that another player might not be able to score from, etc.,

“How much of this is the fact that Ellsbury is a “top prospect” while Melky is an “average major league CF”?  I wonder if Melky were still in triple A and projected as the Yankees starting CF next year, if he would have more perceived value. “

I wonder the same thing.  If Melky had been playing these last 2 years in AAA hitting OPSing .830+ with that cannon arm would he be viewed as some stud “centerpiece” prospect?

Thanks for the response, SG.  I’m not knocking your numbers.  It’s just that I find the Ellsbury hype to be overwhelming.  For example, there was a Red Sox fan named “kevin” on BBTF who seriously argued that Ellsbury was already better than Grady Sizemore!

I would trade Melky straight up for Ellsbury certainly, but I would not trade Melky and a decent pitching prospect for him.  If I were the Red Sox and I really wanted Santana, I would not shy away from trading Lester and Ellsbury in the same deal for Santana.

Thanks SG—I really appreciate it.  I don’t know what you do to make a living but you obviously enjoy what you do on RLYW, you should figure out a way to make money from it.  Except if you did, then maybe it would seem like drudgery, plus maybe you’d stop taking “free” requests from the folks here.

So, Ellsbury figures to be better than Melky.  I guess I’m not all that surprised, but as a Yankee fan I’m not disappointed.  He’s still pretty good, and if Ellsbury sags a little or Melky develops a little…  Maybe this post will motivate Melky to work more in the cages…

You do have to wonder a little bit about the Twins being so low on Melky.  Yes, JE projects better and yes, he has another pre-arb year.  But Melky’s not TERRIBLE—not that I can see.  The thing that makes me think is that the Twins are supposed to have a decent development system and and I wonder if their guys see some flaws we don’t.

Anyway, I hope Melky has a great 2008 in pinstripes and homers off Santana.  And Schilling.  And that the homer, on its way out of the park, rips the head off Schilling.  And then strikes Bush, who is at the game and sitting in the bleachers, in the forehead.  And kills him.

Interesting analysis, SG.  I love reading stuff like this.  (And I’m honestly surprised—I expected the overall value numbers to be closer than they are.)

How much of this is the fact that Ellsbury is a “top prospect” while Melky is an “average major league CF”?—Pags13

Not only that, but (based on the numbers in SG’s tables), it looks like he was never really viewed as a hitting prospect—the pre-2006 BR numbers are all below average and below replacement.  Is there a residual air of “eh, he was never all that special anyway” that sticks to him despite the significantly-improved numbers in 2006 and 2007?  Is that still hurting his perceived value, somehow?  I don’t know.

If I were the Red Sox and I really wanted Santana, I would not shy away from trading Lester and Ellsbury in the same deal for Santana.—jonm

Honestly—and I say this as someone who’d hate to see Ellsbury go, despite agreeing that he’s overhyped—I wouldn’t shy away from it, either.  On the other hand, if I’m Theo and I believe that Minnesota does like my current offer better than any other currently on the table, I certainly don’t change it to include Ellsbury until someone else outbids me.  (I don’t believe for a moment that the Twins will start the season with Santana.  Which is kind of too bad, in a way, because I don’t think they should trade him away in the first place.)

Ellsbury is a better property than Melky right now, by most measures.  We can argue about the degree of that difference, but what I still can’t seem to understand is how the Twins didn’t jump on ANY deal that would have included Phil Hughes.

Would anybody here trade Hughes for Lester and minor leaguers?  Or Hughes for Ellsbury and minor leaguers?  Would anybody here trade Hughes for Lester AND Ellsbury?  I certainly wouldn’t, and that’s without even adding Melky to the deal.  Yet for some reason the Twins were stymied by these options.

The thing that makes me think is that the Twins are supposed to have a decent development system and and I wonder if their guys see some flaws we don’t.

My fear is that the Yankees caving in for Alex Rodriguez may make the Twins think they can wait the Yankees out to get exactly what they want.  It’s going to be important for the Yankees to avoid that in their next few deals IMO.  They may like Melky ok, but they may prefer someone like Austin Jackson, who’s got a higher ceiling, is farther away from making big money, and is more likely to be part of the next Twins contender if they ship Santana out.

Would anybody here trade Hughes for Lester and minor leaguers?  Or Hughes for Ellsbury and minor leaguers?  Would anybody here trade Hughes for Lester AND Ellsbury?

I’m pretty biased, but I wouldn’t trade Hughes for any of those packages.  I really think he has a chance to be special.

SG,
What’s the comparisions between Ellsbury and Brett Gardner?  Their minor league numbers are somewhat similar with Ellsbury having an edge.

What’s the comparisions between Ellsbury and Brett Gardner?  Their minor league numbers are somewhat similar with Ellsbury having an edge.

I’ve got Gardner’s MLEs calculated as:

2006: .258/.327/.333
2007: .257/.328/.331

His 2008 projection: .253/.325/.335, 18 SB, 6 CS if he played full-time. I’ve got him projected at -20 runs over an average CF (compared to 0 for Ellsbury). 

Gardner may be even faster than Ellsbury so he may be a better baserunner and defender, although I’m not certain of that, but whereas Ellsbury has little power, Gardner really seems to have none.  I think Gardner may be a useful fourth OF, but I’d take Ellsbury’s ceiling over Brett’s.

One more thing on Gardner, here are his ranges of projections using CAIRO:

80%: .283/.373/.404 +4 BRaA/650 (better than Ellsbury)
65%: .268/.349/.369 -8 BRaA/650
Baseline: .253/.325/.335
35%: .239/.302/.301
20%: .224/.278/.267

He could hit that 80% figure and be better than Ellsbury, but that’s got only a 20% of likelihood of happening.

Thanks for posting that information.  Nothing wrong with a speedy and solid defensive 4th outfielder/pinch runner.

This… is not good.

http://www.local10.com/sports/14939017/detail.html

Former Baseball Player Charged With DUI, Driver’s Death

Jim Leyritz Refused Breathalyzer Test, Police Say

I guess his defensive play could give Ellsbury the edge, but he would have to be what, an 80% basestealer with something like 50 steals?

Naturally I’ve gulped down the kool-aid on Ellsbury, he does everything well but throw. I think SG’s 32SB/5CS is well within his reach… obviously 9 attempts is too small a sample size but in the ML he was stealing at will. He’s lightning fast. Also, isn’t the point that he could be the next Damon? Damon didn’t hit many homers in his minor league and early ML years. Ellsbury is at least as fast as Damon ever was, appears to understand how to catch the ball, and slots nicely into the leadoff spot already, even with his still-learning OB% numbers. Doesn’t Melky suffer from the comparison because he’s more like other hitters, and less like that leadoff prototype GMs all drool over?

I hate to sound like a homer, but I’ll take Melky over Jacoby, no matter what projections say.  Melky has played better than most have ever expected and if he can continue to progress, he could be a good player.

As others have noted, Jacoby’s value has been buoyed by a great WS and the Sox hype machine.  Timmy Smith was once in the same position.  Look what happened to him.

Jacoby has more to prove at the MLB level and the real test will be whether he can adjust to pitchers who will soon adjust to him.

Doesn’t the idea that Ellsbury is better than Melky, but not much better, just lend credence to the idea that the Twins and Red Sox do not intend on making a deal and are simply trying to drive up the price for the Yanks, who probably have not completely shaken their reputation for being willing to give up most anything in this type of deal? As has been discussed here before, there’s just no way that a Hughes/Melky centered package is worse than an Ellsbury centered package, and these numbers support that.

Alternatively Cory, the Twins may intend to do a deal with the Sox but it won’t be based on anything rational. My baseless speculation is that Smith is heavily motivated by the PR aspects of any deal, given Johan’s standing, their insane owner, new stadium etc. He thinks he could sell Ellsbury as the centerpiece, a “dynamic young CF who’s already looking like a winner.” The fact they didn’t bite on Hughes, when they’re giving up nothing more than a year of Johan (on at best a 3rd place club), demonstrates conclusively that Smith is irrational. So I don’t doubt the sincerity of his interest in making a worse deal.

I’ll freely admit that when I saw the AOL headline “World Series Hero Charged in Fatal Crash,” I was hoping for Pat Borders or Darrell Porter.

Fucking Leyritz…KILLING a woman?!?! For crissakes!!!

Hey SG,

Though you might interested in this:

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2007/12/28/looking-for-some-pinch-hitters/

okay, back to the discussion.

SSF, I suppose that’s possible. I had assumed that the Twins didn’t bite on Hughes because they a) thought that the Yankees’ deadline was a fake, and b) thought that by continuing the bidding war they could get a Hughes/IPK type deal. As much as I’m a believer in the Cashman strategy for the Yankee farm, I wouldn’t be astonished to learn that the other 29 teams believe that the Yanks are just one internal argument away from selling the farm again, and it’d be silly for the Twins not to take advantage of that.

Given the Twins insane ownership, the only way they’ve remained competitive is great talent evaluation and trading, so while it seems like you’re right that PR plays a large role in the Twins half of a deal, I’m willing to guess that Smith is at least okay at his job.

Smith may be a good judge of talent, but playing the PR card over a good deal isn’t wise. Then again, it’s equally if not more likely that Pohlad is getting in the way. Who knows?

SG: What Fgas said in #13. This is cool stuff and I appreciate it.
Perhaps some cold January day you couldgive us some George Herman as a lifelong pitcher projections. I’ve always wondered how his numbers added up given his longevity.
He was still a very good hitter at 36 despite his not so healthy nightime workouts.
You gotta think that a start, day off with pinch hitting duty, then two days in the outfield may have made him even more of an awesome hybrid.
Compared to other leftys pitching 90 years ago he was lets just say…... pretty effin good.

Well there is something that we are not taking into accound with Melky Cabrera is that he is younger than Jacoby Ellsbury.  He did at 21 in the big leagues what Jacoby did at age 23 in AAA.  Compare Melky Cabrera’s numbers to Bernie Williams’ at the same age.  I am not trying to say that Jacoby Ellsbury isn’t better than Melky Cabrera, he is.  However, if Melky develops power in the same way that Bernie did I don’t think the comparison between the two will be anywhere close.  I don’t get where the projections for Jacoby to be a “stud” come from.

re: that age 21 season

Is it possible the yanks stunted his growth by bringing him up so quickly? I like Melky, and would hate to think of him as a yankee Corey Patterson.

i am no expert on such things, but i don’t see how bringing Melky up in 2006 did anything to hinder his development.

all things considered, he had an excellent rookie year in 2006. 

when i think of a player being hurt by coming up too early, i think of someone who comes up and is clearly overmatched so it becomes a confidence issue, or someone who comes up just to sit on the bench and is not getting the ABs they should be getting in the minors.

neither of those situations seem to apply here.

he played a lot in 2006 and played pretty well.

Yup, I agree with what you wrote in 34. If a player is able to hit well enough in the majors it seems reasonable that he would progress faster there than he would against milb pitching. There have been lots of players who had gaudy milb numbers but fizzled at the next level.

Yeah, I can see how in the context of his whole career those numbers at COL age 21 don’t make much sense. But if you were to forecast him through those AB’s, if he fell short in the majors with his MLE I would say he was stunted. But, on second glance I don’t see it happening.

Perhaps some cold January day you couldgive us some George Herman as a lifelong pitcher projections.

Sure, that sounds like a fun project.

Is it possible the yanks stunted his growth by bringing him up so quickly?

It’s possible in some instances, but I don’t know if it’s the case with Melky.  He does control the strike zone pretty well which would be my personal biggest indicator if someone is overmatched. 

The Bernie Williams comparisons may work statistically, but there’s a few things to consider.

1) Bernie was taller and more athletic than Melky.  Power tends to correlate with height to a certain extent.
2) Bernie was an athlete who was never really a full-time baseball player.  It took him time to hone his tools into production on the field.  I think Melky’s been playing baseball his whole life and doesn’t have the same room for growth.

I still think Melky has potential to get better.  From May 3 to Aug 30 he hit .320/.374/.482.  It’s very plausible he was pressing earlier in the season when his playing time was not assured and that he got tired over the last month of the season.  But we can’t throw out the bad times when trying to look at him objectively.

I think that Melky clearly has more upside if you back out park effects.

1) He has illustrated more power potential
- ISOP of .110 and .118 in 2 years in the bigs with non—small sample sizes
- Ells ISOP was an anemic .076 in AA last year

2) Better plate discipline
- 56 walks with 461 ABS in 2006 before a regression this year
- Ells was 25 and 352 at AAA this year and has not exceeded 10% since 2005

These guys will both hit in the .270-.300 range over the course of a season with Ells maybe a bit higher bc he plays in Fenway.

Ells is a bit faster but Melky has better potential as a hitter.  Defense is a wash (Melky’s arm vs Ells potentially better range factor - even though we have no evidence of this)

I’d say these guys are tossups but Ells has 2 more years of eligibility so he is more valuable to the Twins.