Does these projections take into account the new Yankees, returning Yankees, and to be rehabbing Yankees?  Just asking.

Otherwise, what was really difficult to understand was the winning “sets” last year.  I thought I was beginning to understand it last year, but if I ever did, I forgot it now.

I thought I was beginning to understand it last year, but if I ever did, I forgot it now.

The dearth of pie charts was shameful.

Clearly to win the Yankees need a great deal more they need good hitting, good pitching, a good deal more pie charts and a nice smattering of bar graphs as well. Hell, they probably don’t even need the hitting or pitching if the visual representations of numbers are plentiful and colorful enough.

Clay, that was Joe Morgan-worthy.

that was Joe Morgan-worthy.

That may be some of the highest praise I have ever received.

also, fuck line graphs, who needs ‘em?

Thanks for this SG.  I think this is also an excellent time to update the Magic Numbers section, please?

Last night sucked, but Moose was due for a stinker.  Hopefully, it is an isolated incident.  Unfortunately, that makes tonight’s game with Rasner extra important, because the Yankees need to win series, especially at home.

“also, fuck line graphs, who needs ‘em? “
investors

Well described SG. It was indeed a bloodbath. I think moose may throw games against the O’s. I was at that last disaster he had against them. Also, I think this team is better equipped to battle the angels then the clubs of the past few years. With Molina behind the plate and the better pitching and all. These next six will be revealing. I am hoping for at least 4-2.

There is something strange, the yankees are expected to gain 1.3 wins today. It may be that you didn´t subtract todays result from the expected perfomance.

It really seemed that the schedule post ASG was very difficult, but after clearing 3 series with teams that at the time had a better record than us, it may not be that terrible anymore.

It really seemed that the schedule post ASG was very difficult, but after clearing 3 series with teams that at the time had a better record than us, it may not be that terrible anymore.

Yeah, because we always kick the Angels’ asses…

Does these projections take into account the new Yankees, returning Yankees, and to be rehabbing Yankees? 

New Yankees, yes.  I assume none of the injured will make any signficant impact going forward.

I think this is also an excellent time to update the Magic Numbers section, please?

Sure, why not?

There is something strange, the yankees are expected to gain 1.3 wins today. It may be that you didn´t subtract todays result from the expected perfomance.

Yeah, I wrote this post before last night’s game and then updated it but looks like I missed that.  Subtract around .6 from the wins, so 31-26 going forward.

From reading the NYT game recap, apparently David Robertson was booed off the mound last night?  Nice.  It’s a pleasure to see that Yankee fans are becoming more and more asshatish by the day.  Yeesh.

Yeah, because we always kick the Angels’ asses…

I always thought the Yankees sucked against the Angels because Torre tried to out-Scioscia Scioscia.  It’ll be interesting to see if Girardi makes any difference there.

From reading the NYT game recap, apparently David Robertson was booed off the mound last night?  Nice.  It’s a pleasure to see that Yankee fans are becoming more and more asshatish by the day.  Yeesh.

Didn’t these jackasses boo Mo off the mound once too?  F them.

Yeah, it’s just going to get worse after the new stadium increases prices.

/bitter at life.

How many wins would you guess we need to go to the playoffs?

B-Pro playoff odds are ranging from 28% to 41% (the smaller probability is from the regular version, the largest is the elo version), and coolstandings have us at 34.5%. I believe this team can make it, but my guess is it will take something like 92-93 wins to get the wildcard this season, so we will have to overperform about 3 games in the remainig scheadule.

When I did my Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the average win total for the AL wild card was 92.  So yeah, 92-93 wins seems about right.

i dont blame the fans for booing. Are they supposed to cheer the opposing teams grand slams? Robertson did not deserve it because he pitched well as of late but the fans certainly have a right to express their frustration and displeasure. Especially given the fact it costs hundred to take a family of four to a game. The players understand that if they do not perform they will get booed (especially in NY)and for the most part they dont take it personally.

I know you self righteous super fans on this blog are going to disagree but thats my opinion.

hundreds*

It’s one thing to boo the grand slam, it’s another to boo a rookie off the mound when he’s been nothing short of brilliant in the time that he’s been here.

I’ll agree with you if he commits suicide. A little booing never hurt it is probably going to make him better/try harder in the future.

Going to give the fans a pass here.  What do you expect when the home team goes down 11-0?

When it comes to booing, I can relate to both sides.  However, I don’t think the fans were thinking about their wallets when they booed.  I think they voiced their displeasure at watching the Yankees implode against a team they should beat quite handily.  A grand slam was the straw that broke the camels back.

Robertson should think of this as a learning experience.  If he’s too thin skinned to recover from the Bronx cheer he got last night, then maybe being a professional baseball player is the wrong gig for him.

As for the game tonight, the local (Northern Virginia) radio said Burres is a scratch and Dennis Sarfate will start.  I’ve seen Sarfate pitch a few times this year - he throws hard, can be a bit wild.  Anyone know if he has much starting experience in the minors?

This could be a good chance to score a bunch of runs, get to the Baltimore BP early and get Rasner a nice cushion.

Lastly, I still puke when I see Millar, even in an Os uniform.

” When I did my Diamond Mind Projection Blowout, the average win total for the AL wild card was 92.  So yeah, 92-93 wins seems about right.”

It is always fun to look at projections x actual results. Looks like TB and CHA are the good surprises so far, with MIN a close second, while CLE is the biggest bust. SEA is only a bust if you take into account the magnitude of their suckitude, or if you are an ESPN analyst, but we already knew it was a lucky team last season. It is a pity we only have 3 more games with them.

With todays matchups of Lackey x Buchholz and Garza x Halladay, there is a good chance we can make some ground. Let´s hope for a 6 IP, 3 to 4 runs performance by Rasner, and that the offense saved Snack’s runs for today.

MLB has Cabrera as the probable pitcher, with Sarfate going tomorrow.

“As for the game tonight, the local (Northern Virginia) radio said Burres is a scratch and Dennis Sarfate will start.  I’ve seen Sarfate pitch a few times this year - he throws hard, can be a bit wild.  Anyone know if he has much starting experience in the minors?”

I thought daniel cabrera was going today?

I thought daniel cabrera was going today?

That’s what I thought as well, but I’m only relaying what I heard on the radio.  He probably got it wrong.  They are supposed to be a Nats-first station anyway.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080728&content_id=3213713&vkey=news_bal&fext;=.jsp&c_id=bal

Looks like Burres was not a scratch, but removed from the rotation. Also, Sarfate has not thrown more than 50 pitches in a game this season, and has a 1.5 whip in the year. If he is lined against Joba, I´d guess we have a good shot. Now watch him throw a shutout with 75 pitches, and Joba implode.

Sure, why not?

Thanks, that looks a lot better!

If he’s too thin skinned to recover from the Bronx cheer he got last night, then maybe being <strike>a professional baseball player</strike> in a large market is the wrong gig for him.

Fixed.

They don’t boo in small markets?

the Orioles offense has given yankee pitching fits for the last 2 years, for whatever reason.

Millar seems very comfortable and the yankees haven’t been able to get Roberts out for years.  guy hits at least 1 double every time they play.

they were pretty successful against Mariano last year as well.

i won’t be the least bit surprised if Rasner gets rocked tonight.  just have to hope the offense shows up, but if it’s Cabrera, they probably won’t.

Yes, I would like to congratulate Mr Cabrera on finally throwing a complete-game no-hitter tonight.

“Yes, I would like to congratulate Mr Cabrera on finally throwing a complete-game no-hitter tonight. “

with 13 walks

... the fans certainly have a right to express their frustration and displeasure. Especially given the fact it costs hundred to take a family of four to a game.

The said families have a choice of, you know, not going to games if they think it is very high for them. And if they are displeased about ticket prices, they can boo the management team of Randy Levine/Brian Cashman/Hal/Hank/George/Jennifer/Jessica Steinbrenners. If they make the illogical choice of booing the players, they can boo the high earners, even though it is pretty indefensible in my opinion.

Booing a 23 year old rookie, making the league minimum, and having one bad game points simply to either cluelessness, boorishness and/or lack of any appreciation of how hard it is to play the game. These people are not fans, they are people without actual lives who want to find joy through a win of the team of their choice. The moment Yankees will have a couple of losing seasons, these people will be off the bandwagon.

The moment Yankees will have a couple of losing seasons, these people will be off the bandwagon.

Almost seems worth it . . .

The fact that games are expensive are not my argument. I think by definition the people there are fans, albeit they may not live up to your high standards of fans because they let their feelings be heard. The kid better be able to take a booing every once in a while. Some players respond favorably to a bronx cheer to avoid it in the future.

You are most definitely one of the self righteous fans. You think your better than other fans because maybe your old and watched through the rough years. Maybe not though.

It sure would be great if lines of fans showed up at the tampa office and booed and heckled george & co. but I dont see that happening.

You are most definitely one of the self righteous fans.

Possibly. However, I choose to see things differently. I am not self-righteous; the ones that believe they have the right to boo every time some player does not live up to their standards are arrogant, entitled jerks.

You think your better than other fans because maybe your old and watched through the rough years. Maybe not though.

The latter part of the statement is right. I am not that old, and have not watched through many rough years. And I don’t necessarily think I am better than anybody because of lack of a satisfactory metric on which to evaluate myself and others.

Oooh, Dcristal’s trying to get a rise out of us all!  This should be fun.

They don’t boo in small markets?

Booing is a function of the team/player not living up to expectations.  Most of the large markets have large expectations.  Smaller markets, not so much.  Also, 55,000 people booing I think would have a larger impact on a player than 5,000 people.

“Oooh, Dcristal’s trying to get a rise out of us all!  This should be fun. “

if i was trying to get a rise out of you I would say something like “jeter is the best player in baseball” or “Bill James is full of shit”

I just think its bullshit to ridicule the fans who are going out to see their team. There are teams that cannot give away tickets and the yankees loyal fans show up in record breaking numbers each year and “It has been 2832 days, 11 hours, 12 minutes, and 41 seconds since the New York Yankees have won a World Series”

I was only half paying attention by the time Robertson’s time was done, so it is hard to talk specifically to it.  But I know sometimes fans take out their displeasure with the team on the pitcher being removed.  Why not?  He’s an easy target.  I don’t know if that makes it “right”, but I don’t think that means they aren’t true fans.

I don’t think I’ve ever in my life booed a player from my own team, while at a game.  Boo the other team, sure.  I don’t think that makes me “better” than the fans that do, I just don’t see the point in wasting my energy.  Doesn’t make me feel any better, so why bother?  For the time I could be booing, I could instead go and get a beer.  Now THAT would make me feel better.

jeter is the best player in baseball

He’s not?  I’m crushed, absolutely crushed.

But Bill James is full of shit, isn’t he?

“they can boo the management team of Randy Levine/Brian Cashman/Hal/Hank/George/Jennifer/Jessica Steinbrenners”

How?

Otherwise I agree.  Fans shouldn’t stupidly boo call-ups when they hit a small-sample fluctuation.  Even if such booing is an encouragement and helps the team’s record, I’m against it.

Same story with - oh, whatever.

if i was trying to get a rise out of you I would say something like “jeter is the best player in baseball” or “Bill James is full of shit”

Eh, now it’s just boring.

“they can boo the management team of Randy Levine/Brian Cashman/Hal/Hank/George/Jennifer/Jessica Steinbrenners”

How?

May require some creativity. Cashman is on hand during games, no?

Anyway, I generally don’t like booing as a matter of principle. I was more arguing on the principle of laying blame where blame needs to be for ticket prices.

I was more arguing on the principle of laying blame where blame needs to be for ticket prices.

Also, “blame” is a bad choice of word. It is market economy that drives these prices, and Cahsman/Levine/Steinbrenner’s would be fools not to make profit out of it. Particularly when a large amount of it is invested into the product on field.